2021/22 Fortuna:Liga Power Rankings (1/3): The Way Too Early Edition
As I was thinking about what kind of content I’d like to provide over this Fortuna:Liga season, I started by setting myself a few conditions. It’d have to be regular, but not too regular so I don’t drain myself early like with the weekly Newsletters last season — say monthly, or bimonthly. It’d have to have some recap and predictive value. And it can’t be too time-consuming (both for me and you, the reader) while still carrying substance you won’t find anywhere else. It sounded like Catch 22 at first, but then I stumbled upon a concept that’s fairly common in foreign blogosphere, yet hardly so over here.
Power Rankings. My favourite The Athletic writer does them. Sam Tighe even managed to turn his occasional Bleacher Report feature into a successful podcast full of ranking stuff. I myself have chipped in both in Czech and English. And now I’ll try to fit F:Liga into this straightforward concept, too.
Well, straightforward. In a way, it’s anything but straightforward. We are used to rank teams by points, or at a stretch goals scored and conceded, and that’s working out just fine. It’s also a mere click away at any time, though, so why bother replicating it here? This must be an attempt at something else entirely.
Sure enough, here I am with an attempt to cover… quite literally everything else remaining, to be honest. We’ll use all sorts of advanced and basic metrics to complement the eye test and figure out who’s strong and who’s not. Plzeň may be sitting on 15 points, but anyone who’s seen their games (possibly their own fans included) will tell you they were hardly good value for five wins — and that’s the exact sort of thing these Power Rankings will aim at describing.
Will it be objective? Oh please. But it won’t be a guesswork either. Below, the teams are ranked primarily by what they’ve shown so far (considering strength of opposition, circumstances, actual performances), while their potential to keep showing it will only be given some secondary consideration.
16. FK Teplice
To be fair, I’m higher on Teplice now than I was before the season’s start. At the same time, however, I was so low then, I couldn’t have possibly soured on them. The only way was up, and up they went in the first game when they outright dominated České Budějovice and got tremendously unlucky to lose.
Then they’ve unravelled — just like we’d expected them to.
The story of 2021/22 Teplice thus far has been that of an active start and a woeful finish. Before the half-time, their average xG score is 0,53:0,84 which is still comfortably below average, but not completely horrendous. After the half-time, though, their xGF average drops way below the acceptable mark (0,36) while their xGA average pushes way over the acceptable limit (1,28).
In fact, forget pre-shot xG. Let’s talk the post-shot one that takes into account only shots on target and controls for their placement or power as opposed to the more traditional, simpler xG model. There, Teplice have already allowed 13,07 goals — very close to their actual goals conceded total (14) — meaning their goalkeepers have been properly snowed under, and you’d actually understand if they fared way worse than they have (especially Čtvrtečka).
15. FC Slovan Liberec
It tells you a lot about Liberec’s (otherwise well-documented) struggles that there are four teams who have underperformed their individual expected goals scored total by a greater margin than Slovan — even as Slovan have only celebrated one goal (the second lowest total is four). Put in other words: this is not a case of Liberec being unlucky; they simply can’t create shit. And when they do, they often misfire anyway. By post-shot xG, Liberec haven’t even reached 0,15 expected goals on three separate occasions, a stunning record after 6 rounds effectively meaning that in those games (Slovácko, Sparta, Zlín), the keeper could’ve literally nipped out for a fag without missing a beat.
Besides, if Teplice are the worst team on attacking set pieces overall, Liberec actually beat them on attacking corners alone, so far only coming up with one performance (Č. Budějovice) with at least one corner catching fire. As for counter-attacks, they have yet to finish a single one. That should be unreal.
14. SK Dynamo České Budějovice
Together with Teplice, Dynamo are the only team in the league with a Bottom 3 offence and defence per rolling xG over the last 5 games played. Excluding penalties, Dynamo are actually dead last on both fronts, so… there you go. Also noteworthy: Dynamo have beaten the only two teams beneath them in my Power Rankings. I wonder whether that’s only a coincidence or not.
One positive for ČB is that apart from those two (easiest) matchups on offer, they’ve actually faced a really tough opposition, so there might be a light at the end of the tunnel, but as of now, there’s very little to get excited about.
Offensively, Bassey, Hora or Mihálik have all had their stand-out moments and performances, but it all feels very ad hoc, very individual. Defensively, Dynamo have picked up where they left off — allowing everyone to crack their penalty area for fun and relying on last-ditch defending that can only get you so far.
What’s particularly interesting to find out: while the Čolić benching in favour of Sladký has been generally applauded and bore fruit through one winning goal, his right flank has actually remained as penetrable as it was under Čolić’s (notoriously lax) patrol. Dynamo leak nearly 0,5 xG from positional attacks led down that side, a frankly ridiculous 0,21 xG more than the 2nd worst team (Jablonec). There’s still too much to fix with the season underway, and it’s legitimate to ask whether coach Horejš has what it takes to do so.
13. MFK Karviná
After Round 4 and the dramatically thrown away match vs Zlín, I’ve registered some noise regarding Jozef Weber’s insecure future. It was way premature and unfair, for however poor look his winless record makes. Nobody should be made to play Sparta, Plzeň and Slavia inside the first six rounds. That’s brutal.
At the same time, it’s worth appreciating Karviná have mostly looked awfully disjointed, and sorting through four different CB combinations in the heart of your defence (be it 5- or 4-man backline) naturally doesn’t help fix it. I’m not sure why Nešický has only eaten 161 minutes either, but let’s just say Karviná remain unbeaten in the games he opened (0–2–0), and this is just another episode of Weber’s long-running “Peculiar Team Selections” series.
One thing definitely working in the sea of inconsistency: Bartošák/Qose’s supreme set piece delivery. Corners and indirect free kicks have so far made up 21,1% of all shots generated by Karviná, which is an utterly insane portion.
12. FK Jablonec
Look, there’s no doubt Europe has so far had the priority, which is fine — and the returns have ultimately been OK as well — but it’s still amazing to realize Jablonec are where they are (13th) on merit. There have been 47 games so far, totalling 94 individual xG scorelines, and Jablonec are responsible for the 2nd worst (-3,25 vs Olomouc) and 7th worst (-2,12 vs Boleslav). Whoa.
That’s not to say Jablonec didn’t deserve better on other nights (most notably Teplice and Slovácko), but all in all, they’ve hit some remarkable lows already. From 14 shots on target conceded against Olomouc through nearly half of all corner kicks against resulting in a shot (45%) all the way to the most xGA leaked through central areas per game (0,8) — Jablonec have been outright disoriented if not lazy whenever they are not in possession of the ball.
11. FK Pardubice
Pardubice are still fun and easy on the eye, but too much of the chances occurring in their games stem from unforced errors of their defenders (Čihák and Toml haven’t seemed up to speed for much of the early goings). They’ve also only posted one positive xG differential; all the way back in Round 1.
In a sense, Pardubice are a reverse Teplice — they usually start slow and play a catch-up. Their first-half score (3:5) isn’t as dramatically worse than their second-half one (7:6) as you and I had probably imagined, but still. What makes this little phenomenon especially intriguing, however, is that Pardubice have benefitted from some suspect goalkeeping to a rather curious extent; and particularly so in those second halves. The Tischler equalizer vs Karviná was saveable. The Solil strike vs Olomouc was from outside the box. The Cadu goal vs Slovácko was a long-range free kick. In the end, opposing goalkeepers would need to have saved four additional goals to be in line with expectation.
10. FC Hradec Králové
Turns out Stanislav Hejkal is not all useless! I asked a fan recently, and it’s the former Teplice head coach together with Adrian Rolko, apparently, who’ve turned Hradec Králové into this set piece juggernaut. Deploying numerous set plays that get more cunning the further away from goal you go, the promoted side ranks 3rd in xG generated from corners and free kicks (0,56 per game; only Slavia and Sparta rank higher), at one point — within one 90-minute show —posting six shot attempts following a total of 12 corners vs Liberec.
So you pretty much know where they’re going to hit you from.
And you should know by now how to hit them, as well. Patience pays off against Hradec who have a decent set defence, but once they make a mistake at the back, they find it hard to recover. We saw that against Sparta, but it was much the same story earlier vs Karviná. Take as little time to attack them as possible, and you’ll likely be fine, because this team just struggles with pace.
9. FC Fastav Zlín
What to do with a team that’s suffered two blow-out losses with a combined score of 2:9, but also has the 5th xGF and 7th best xGA over the last 5 rounds (ie. excluding the Slavia opener), three wins and… actually, hang on, what the fuck was that Olomouc game? You lose by three despite facing 5 shots on target and a grand total of, erm, four goalscoring chances (good for 4 goals)?
So little makes sense about Zlín.
8. Bohemians Praha 1905
Bohemians are a bit of a 2021/22 enigma, too. Their underlying numbers look very good — they have a Top 6 offence (7th if you remove the 4 pens), defence, shooting efficiency, pressing, structure — but my eye test places them in a middling average much like their underwhelming points return (6 in 6).
Still, there’s a few sore spots that jump out at you. For one, Bohemians can’t defend corners. For two, even though Kovařík looks like an inspired addition on the whole, he does most of his damage on set pieces and actually hasn’t done anything to lift their left-hand side off the league’s very bottom when it comes to threat generated from positional attacks. Finally, only 15,2% of built-up attacks led by Bohemians end in a shot — the worst rate around.
7. FC Baník Ostrava
Baník have achieved a truly amazing feat; by one metric, they are the sharpest shooters, while proving the most effective in limiting quality shots their own goalkeeper faces, too. To be clear what I’m talking about here: I take post-shot xG (ie. not accounting for blocked or wayward shots) and then divide the sum of it by the number of all shot attempts (incl. those blocked and off target). Ostrava offer the best value at both ends of the pitch, which is extremely rare.
To be fair, though, the xGA² value — ie. quality of shots against put on target — isn’t really under Baník’s control (it can simply mean the opposition misfires from great positions too often), and it has a tendency to regress to the mean; especially with teams who put the backline under as much pressure as Baník. Up high and in mid-block, Ostrava are among two least effective ball-winning outfits, and a staggering 23,8% of all their ball losses occur in their defensive third. Those ball losses tend to lead to shots and… turn to goals.
Ostrava used to be elite at avoiding such danger. They are not anymore.
6. SK Sigma Olomouc
A little disclaimer: I had contemplated putting Olomouc as high as 3rd. Starting with Sigma, these following four teams could be organized pretty much any other way and I would still happily nod along —very equal group.
One thing absolutely qualifying Sigma for Top 3 placement: offence. It’s not just that they are already at 40% of last season’s goals scored total (!) and should they continue at this pace, they’ll more than double it (40 to 96). It’s also that they are not overperforming their underlying numbers too crazily (still owning the league’s best xGF and xGF²); they are simply a loosened up collective of great passers and dribblers having fun after years of suffocation.
One thing definitely preventing Sigma from Top 3 placement: defence. By non-penalty xGA, only Č. Budějovice and Jablonec are worse. Defending set pieces is a huge issue, the Poulolo-Jemelka CB tandem has already caused two goals via their imperfect communication/positioning, Poulolo himself has been all over the place, playing like a self-proclaimed libero of sorts, and not a single channel (left, right, central) ranks Top 10 when it comes to stopping opponents from generating chances. Especially Zmrzlý needs to improve.
The main task ahead of returning coach Jílek is therefore obvious: find some sort of a middle ground. Sigma can’t continue allowing opponents to finish 29,3% of their positional attacks (2nd worst rate). Even if it means they won’t finish 29,9% of their own any longer (3rd best rate). Something’s got to give.
5. 1. FC Slovácko
People look at Slovácko and see underwhelming goal returns. I look at them and see value in not getting blanked even once (while shutting the others out three times). It’s a matter of perspective and, yes, perhaps even sustainability — but that’s for another day, and the truth is, Slovácko are far from getting lucky. Those 1-goal performances were usually supposed to be 2/3-goal ones.
It’ll take a while until that one defensive performances against Plzeň — heavily influenced by a first-half red — stops distorting the bigger picture. As of now, we’ve got to deal with the ridiculous 32 shots faced and 5,27 xGA accumulated, which by itself torpedoes Slovácko’s numbers. Per pre-shot xG, Slovácko weren’t expected to concede a single goal four times. As for post-shot xG, if you were to put all other games together (getting a combined 2,21 xGA²), you still wouldn’t even reach half of that Plzeň sum (4,47 xGA²).
Just for the sake of argument, let’s say Slovácko finish the game with 10 men and Plzeň “only” get to half their actual shot and xG totals. Slovácko’s defence immediately rises from 10th to 5th — just by meddling with one number. Heh.
4. FC Viktoria Plzeň
What makes this exercise above even funnier: half that one xG performance for Plzeň too, and their offence plummets from the league’s summit all the way to the 7th place. Now, sure, this is neither an accurate nor a fair way to go about it (there’s no such thing after all), but it still tells you a lot about Plzeň’s inability to otherwise dominate. They routinely take the foot off the gas once leading, in the end only outshooting a non-Slovácko opponent by 3 attempts at most (and somehow getting outshot by a freaking Liberec in the process).
When you compare their behaviour to both “S” clubs, you get a wild picture:
These are extremely small samples, mind, but the trends are there to be seen. Basically, when Sparta and Slavia go ahead, they smell blood and do thirst for more; whereas when Plzeň take the lead, they look to sit on it, and sit it out.
(PPDA means “passes allowed per defensive action “ and it effectively measures intensity with which the team tries to win back possession. Plzeň virtually stopped trying to do that once Slovácko went one man down, and late on vs Bohemians too, which was kind of understandable with both of those games sandwiched inbetween Conference League play-offs, but the rest is… inexcusable.)
3. FK Mladá Boleslav
A spring Mladá Boleslav already looked like an elite attacking outfit, and they mostly kept the ball rolling on that front. The main question mark always was: can Karel Jarolím fix the defence, or will they simply score and concede tons?
He can. Kind of? The team has only kept one clean sheet, but spare for the left flank which got absolutely hammered against Slavia (and mostly through that remains the worst in the league defensively), they’ve largely held their own. The thing is, once you exclude penalties from everyone’s equation (MB haven’t faced a single one yet), their xGA drops a few places (to 11th).
Still, there are ingredients now that had been missing prior. Boleslav can prevent a counter from amounting to anything, they can deal with crosses very well, overall don’t lose possession deep down too easily, and their percentage of fouls conceded in defensive third (7,7%) is the lowest of all.
2. AC Sparta Praha
I was this close to nudge Sparta into the pole position, but in the end I decided I need to prioritize my sharply deteriorating relationship with Slavia fans.
Kidding. Sparta are simply not there yet. I love the many ways they can hit you, but I hate their numerous passages where it appears like they don’t care. Even as they seem very eager to pounce and bite on the counter, it’s not too formidable a weapon (3rd in terms of xGF generated from counters). In most metrics, in fact, they grade out 2nd at best, which is still great of course, but it’s not going to cut it; not with Olomouc as their toughest opposition yet.
It’s undeniable Sparta and Plzeň have benefitted from a rather soft schedule, so it’s going to be all the more fascinating to see them square off this week-end.
1. SK Slavia Praha
I’m not sure this point is getting hammered home nearly enough: Slavia have already endured almost 1/3 of all trips on their regular season schedule, and they still came awfully close to be 100%. That’s no small feat, so even if you feel like being a little cold on them (which is alright for now), talking about any sort of domestic crisis would be premature. They are still a powerhouse.
One significant change from last year that would have me slightly worried: Slavia are now allowing their opponents to shoot way too close to their net. Zlín started off by taking two attempts from centre of the box, Teplice followed up with their own trio, and Karviná peaked with six of them. This sort of a thing was pretty much unheard of in 2020/21. In the spring, only two Slavia opponents on average tried their luck from closer than 15 meters — Zlín (6:2 win on MD16) and Pardubice (3:0 win on MD19). This season, we’ve already registered three such instances — all touched upon above.
To be clear, this feels very temporary to me. Once the dust (ie. roster) settles and treatment room gets mostly vacated, I’m sure Slavia eventually tighten up. But for now, they offer a bit of an unfamiliar sight at the back that needs to be patched up, while up top, they relatively struggled to create against the same three opponents’ defensive blocks, too. A mere two finished positional attacks vs Karviná are the lowest amount since August 2015 when Slavia proved utterly toothless in Brno (0:1 loss), generating 0 xG via build-up.
All data used and interpreted here are taken from Wyscout database.
