2022/23 mid-season review: Bohemians Praha 1905
Welcome to the 3rd edition of my FORTUNA:LIGA mid-season review. Over the years, I’ve moved from Twitter to Medium, and now I’ve got nowhere further to move — just tweaking the format a little bit to account, among other things, for one big question ahead of the spring and a welcome update to Jakub’s unique pre-season standings projection. Enjoy!
One big question going into 2023
How big a damage will the departures of the two stars actually cause?
It’s hard to understate the multi-layered influence Roman Květ and Petr Hronek had on this team. As a duo, they were a big part of Jaroslav Veselý’s structure off the ball focused on sweeping up loose (second) balls and masterfully applying pressure in all kinds of situations (leading to 4th best PPDA). Each won 27 balls up high and both contributed heavily to ‘Klokani’ recovering the most balls in the final third via ground duels (4,8 per game).
Individually, they both possess a skillset that will be hard to replace. Hronek is a self-sufficient chance creator who attacks the box well and can certainly cross. Květ is an underrated set piece taker, instinctive passer and hard hitter who’s a bit of a unicorn with his sweet technique and tall frame.
In terms of attacking the box, Aleš Čermák could prove a suitable replacement. In terms of cracking the opponent’s penalty area, Michal Beran is actually on par with them despite getting much less looks. But in terms of final output and clutch performance… you just never know. After all, these two alone are responsible for 11/24 important points, 28,6% of all primary chance-creating actions and 32,4% of all MVP points garnered by this team. Incredibly, only six goals of the 27 Bohemians have scored thus far didn’t bear a signature of either Květ or Hronek. That’s bound to show.
Key numbers
7th: At around the same time last year, I had a hard time concinving most of you that Bohemians were worthy of the 9th place I slotted them in. The writing was already on the wall for Luděk Klusáček; eventually fired in March. This year I rank them at the exact same spot they are actually holding (7th), which also happens to be the spot they deserved to be in per xP, while Jaroslav Veselý has earned some well-deserved plaudits for getting the team playing the direct way it fits them (least passes per shot), seeing his offence rejuvenated (7th; with the 2nd best right channel) and fans cautiously excited for the immediate future (distant one perhaps not so much). How ironic, then, it is to see ‘Bohemka’ earning a smaller portion of non-penalty xG (50,9%) than midway last season — and not by a little (54,3%). Both this and last fall, Bohemians lived through 6 negative xG matchups — just in 2022, there are only 10 positive ones to compensate instead of 13. What has improved considerably, meanwhile, is the shot share — shooting up from 46,7% (10th) to 55,1% (4th) in terms of any attempts; from 44,8% to an even more pronounced 56% for those on goal.
62,9%: Much has been made about Bohemians and their peculiar away dominance and corresponding home struggles. On 14 October, Kuba tweeted about the phenomenon, expecting it to disappear in a bit. At this point, you can hardly say it has disappeared (2,0 points per away game makes them 2nd best; 0,75 points per home game makes them 2nd worst), and a great part of the explanation lies in the percentage highlighted above. ‘Klokani’ are still somehow lucky, earning more points than expected on the road, but pre-shot xG is not the biggest factor — that would be the post-shot one, taking only shots on goal in account. Bohemians are earning 62,9% of xG² away from home (which meshes well with 63% of SOG), an astonishing result of Pardubice, Sparta and Boleslav all hitting woodwork against them (the greens never needed to be saved by a goalpost in home stands) along with Černý, Juliš and Fulnek all missing goalmouth sitters. Enjoying 45,1% shooting accuracy against 29,1% of the opponents is, in a way, also an expression of luck, especially if your visiting sides are actually hitting the target with more than a half of their shots (51,2%). Quite a twist.
3+5: Hronek’s long throws are not only long — like in the case of, say, Lukáš Sadílek — but they are legitimate bullets and a proper cheat code at that. Bohemians have generated three goals (one direct assist) and five more chances off of Hronek’s sharp long throw-ins. When put together with the short and quick type of a throw-in, Bohemians have generated 0,8 chances per game via this underrated set piece (13 in total). That amount narrowly leads the league and constitutes a relatively sky-high percentage of all chances ‘Bohemka’ generate (10,7%). What feels significant — and possibly helps explain why Slavia coaching staff targeted a 29-year-old — is that Slavia have suffered severely in this discipline on the right-hand side in particular following the departure of Alex Bah, with Lukáš Masopust’s secondary assist in Round 16 standing alone as a belated exception to the trend.
Most valuable player(s)
The following few paragraphs will reference my own MVP model, introduced initially here, and further enriched for this season. I now divide chance-creating actions to primary and secondary (assigning different value to both), also credit creators for chances left unfinished not by their own fault, and instead of “low recovery” introduce more cherry-picked defensive metrics, “backstopping action” (preventing a chance from developing, be it via interception, duel or block) to go with “bypassed for a chance” (an error not punished by scoring). The space for goal-creating actions has been expanded to as many as three non-assist contributions to be appreciated by the model — as long as they truly contribute.
With Květ and Hronek off the board for the spring, Bohemians MVP race loses a lot of glamour and remains wide open. Current leader David Puškáč would only lead two team leaderboards (Pardubice, Zlín) with his total and is closely followed by Martin Dostál for the alternate MVP of the fall (to Květ). Puškáč is still, on his day, one of the most complete strikers around, but staying fit is a massive task for him at this point. There was a month-long stretch of six straight 70+ minute appearances (August-September), and he was as important for Bohemians as pretty much ever, but that was it. Since the start of October, he was twice subbed off at half-time, twice subbed in. Still, once normalized per 90 mins, his 4 important points are of great value and his 15 chance-creating actions are top notch for a forward. Dostál is, meanwhile, very unlucky to only contribute to four goals (two directly) while underpinning a further 23 chances that have gone begging.
Wild card
I, for one, would not be surprised if Aleš Čermák takes the league by storm (again), but for now, the focus must be on the ageless Josef Jindřišek who’s very much enjoyed an expanded platform for influencing the game higher up. He’s third on the current leaderboard on the back of four TotW nominations and sneaky secondary chance creation, usually stemming from him winning the ball. He’s helped to force 4 dangerous turnovers already, in total contributing to 14 opportunities. He wrapped up 2021/22 with 8 chance-creating actions despite also mostly playing in midfield.
Pre-season projection update
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account.
I was pretty low on Bohemians, and so was the model to begin with. I’m not too low on Bohemians right now, and that’s echoed by the model, too. There’s still a wide range of possibilities — moving only an inch from 16th to 14th-4th — but the greater emphasis now lies on the front end of the table. A Top 8 finish is given roughly a 55% chance compared to the original 26%. Climbing over the 35-point edge currently appears to be a virtual lock (86%), which doesn’t necessarily bode well for my bold prediction, ehm…
My bold prediction’s status: (Just about) dead in the water.
Anyone betting on ‘Klokani’ sorting through 14 spring games without earning so much as 3 points? Not even the 4 brave bettors from our little prediction game? Yeah, didn’t think so. A cheeky prediction has backfired.
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