2022/23 mid-season review: FK Jablonec
Welcome to the 3rd edition of my FORTUNA:LIGA mid-season review. Over the years, I’ve moved from Twitter to Medium, and now I’ve got nowhere further to move — just tweaking the format a little bit to account, among other things, for one big question ahead of the spring and a welcome update to Jakub’s unique pre-season standings projection. Enjoy!
One big question going into 2023
How will the shortest winter break impact Jablonec’s fragile mental state?
On 12 November, Jablonec played out their last FORTUNA:LIGA autumn fixture. It was a familiar experience; David Heidenreich saw his team’s 7th red card of the season — taking Jablonec to within one red card of their 2019-22 three-season total! — at a time when his team held a lead — first time that’s happened, to be fair — with his team duly crumbling the rest of the way. It was just the latest piece of an exhausting puzzle. It started with Round 1 and two incredibly stupid goals to concede in a harsh 0:3 loss to Bohemians; it continued through a series of failed attempts to clear the ball (Krob vs Sparta), block the shot (Šulc vs Slavia; Akpudje vs Brno), set up an attack from deep (Akpudje vs Pardubice) or just casual ball-watching.
No other team by far has shot itself in the foot quite as often as Jablonec.
Yet, on 7 December, the boys in green were called back in action — in a move designed to accelerate the inevitable adjustment period that could, however, potentially hamper the team’s ability to mentally recover. Jablonec would play out 2 pre-Christmas friendlies, then break again for a brief festive period, and finally re-unite for 3 more January tune-ups.
I can’t say this strategy necessarily backfires, as it can just as easily benefit the collective, but it feels risky to prescribe it to such a vulnerable team whose every mistake — small or even smaller — seemed to have been punished. They probably could’ve used a longer break to clear their heads.
Key numbers
14th: Midway through last season, Jablonec were also sitting 14th and on 16 points (just from more games). Now the history repeats itself on the face of it, but not quite in reality. That’s because you could’ve argued Jablonec deserved better with the chances they created back then (a typical sign of unsustainable underperformance), whereas now you could argue they don’t create enough to deserve all that much more (often a sign of sustainable underperformance). The 2021/22 Jablonec was a team of poor finishers often facing good to great goalkeeping; the 2022/23 Jablonec is more of a team of poor creators often facing mediocre to poor goalkeeping. Indeed, on exactly half of all occasions (8/16), the opposing custodian allowed at least 0,3 goals above expected. For the first 4 cases, Jablonec went 0-3-1; for the remaining quartet, they finally learned the ropes, going a satisfying 4-0-0. And that was it; that constitutes 100% of all Jablonec wins. Otherwise it was pretty much enough for the opposing goalkeeper to merely show up.
3,3: The reds always came in bunches for Jablonec. Four of the first five arrived within the space of two rounds (6 and 7); the last two neatly shut the door behind the frustrating autumn (15 and 16). Inbetween, Jablonec had actually found the footing — only to lose it again eventually. From R8 through R14, Horejš’s side outshot all of their opponents bar one (Hradec in R8, without Jovović who got sent off the matchday prior), averaging 14 shot attempts compared to 9,6 in the other matches, and reaching the peak of their 5-game rolling xGF following R11 (1,69). That value would be good for 7th right now; instead they are at 1,30 again (14th). Of course, there are usually not that many red cards without excessive fouling, and Jablonec are certainly guilty of it too. Not just in absolute terms (3rd most) but especially deep down, in defensive third (2nd most). Now, one could argue that not all fouls are necessarily bad — and I would concur — but if you commit 3,3 illegal attempts to win the ball in your own backyard per game (an average that beats every 2021/22 average btw), it’s a sure-fire sign of not having things under control to a desirable extent. Last term, three worst teams in this respect were also 3/5 of the worst teams in just about all other respects (Zlín, Karviná, Teplice); this absolutely requires fixing going forward.
-4: An intriguing phenomenon, that could help explain the worsened underlying numbers as far as gaining the attacking penalty area goes, would be the dramatic drop in crosses completed in/to these areas. Jablonec were, of course, a very crossing-heavy team with Jan Krob at the forefront for much of Petr Rada’s tenure (3rd last season with 7,3 deep completed crosses), whereas now they are leaning towards the opposite with Jan Krob sometimes acting as a left centre back (16th with 3,3 deep completed crosses). Now, I’m not saying crossing is a reliable, fantastic weapon, but it is a weapon, and here we are talking about a staggering year-over-year drop worth of four crosses a game. That was always bound to show — especially with the team’s deep ground combination not passing with flying colours either (7th) — and it has indeed duly shown, resulting in Jablonec boasting just the 12th highest non-penalty xGF in the league. With Krob often out of the line-up, Jablonec have also lost its corner kick charm, finishing off just over 1 corner a game (15th) and a mere 22,4% of all (16th).
Most valuable player
The following few paragraphs will reference my own MVP model, introduced initially here, and further enriched for this season. I now divide chance-creating actions to primary and secondary (assigning different value to both), also credit creators for chances left unfinished not by their own fault, and instead of “low recovery” introduce more cherry-picked defensive metrics, “backstopping action” (preventing a chance from developing, be it via interception, duel or block) to go with “bypassed for a chance” (an error not punished by scoring). The space for goal-creating actions has been expanded to as many as three non-assist contributions to be appreciated by the model — as long as they truly contribute.
One of only two Top 20 most valuable players in the league to have been up for a spot in the official Team of the Week less than four times (3, together with Gning), Vladimir Jovović has flown a little under the radar upon his return to Czech fields. The reason might be his lacking final output, but it’s worth noting that all four of his points have been notched in close game states, he’s indirectly contributed to a further quartet of Jablonec strikes, and has stepped up his primary chance creation towards the end of fall. Jovović is one of the most purposeful dribblers (8 chances created) as well as a self-sufficient beast (6 chances set up for himself), saving 16/21 of his primary contributions and 6/8 self-serving actions for the last 8 rounds.
Wild card(s)
Jan Hanuš is an interesting case study in that the makers of the Team of the Week clearly have a sweet spot for him (7 nominations) all the while he’s posting “just” above average shot stopping numbers and has caused 3 goals in process. Similarly, but in an opposite manner, I’ve rather enjoyed a quiet bounce-back season from David Houska, who can finally flash his selling card — deep playmaking full of long range diagonals — under a coach who’s no Látal or Rada, but he’ll always be more of an unsung hero material.
The true wild cards (to actually finish as the team’s MVP) are to be found elsewhere, I’d say. Jan Chramosta is not too far out of Jovović on the strength of some extremely balanced profile for a centre forward — he’s quietly returned to top form as one of the most complete strikers in the past year or so, rattling off 11 points (7+4), six of them important (3+3), on top of that chipping in with two goal-creating and fifteen chance-creating actions. Beyond that, there are players who are in with a shout but also a considerable drawback — Polidar doesn’t create enough to make a climb (which actually goes with his 0 assists), Kratochvíl arguably plays too deep under Horejš to make a real splash and Šulc — contributor to six goals in a fairly limited playing time! — might be under increased pressure for playing time once/if Malínský and Pleštil return to adequate match fitness/form.
Pre-season projection update
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account.
The model was arguably too bullish on Jablonec’s chances to return to the championship group, but I do wonder whether the pendulum hasn’t swung too far out in the other direction now. A 10-point deduction to reduce the shot at Top 6 by 45% (!) seems like overcorrection from where I stand, seeing that Jablonec are virtually two wins away from catching up with the lot. David Horejš et co. are currently on pace to earn exactly 30 points, something the model is actually quite optimistic about (74%), but it’s clear a simulation just isn’t able to capture the nuances like “getting used to a new coach’s methods” or “getting Malínský, Krob, Polidar, Martinec, Pleštil back healthy for the early winter preparation start”. Jablonec ought to aim — and ultimately land — higher than just doubling their total of wins (to 8), surely.
My bold prediction’s status: Unlikely.
It doesn’t look like Jablonec are wrapping up the regular season with the lowest total of ties. Pardubice and Slavia are at 1 while seven other sides are sitting on less than Jablonec’s 4 draws. Too soon to call it quits, but it’s not looking rosy for those who’d bet on this bold prediction to come true as part of our little prediction game. Luckily, it’s just two adventurous guys.
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