2022/23 mid-season review: SK Sigma Olomouc
Welcome to the 3rd edition of my FORTUNA:LIGA mid-season review. Over the years, I’ve moved from Twitter to Medium, and now I’ve got nowhere further to move — just tweaking the format a little bit to account, among other things, for one big question ahead of the spring and a welcome update to Jakub’s unique pre-season standings projection. Enjoy!
One big question going into 2023
Can Sigma avoid a 3rd straight slow (re)start to keep their UEFA dreams alive?
Seeing that Jan Fortelný has arrived to bolster an already strong central midfield and Mojmír Chytil is widely reported to finish the season at Sigma (to then switch to Slavia for a smaller fee), Olomouc head into the spring pretty much all in — aiming to return to the continental stage after 4 years.
For that to really come true, it’s mandatory for Sigma to restart strong… for once. Last winter, it took some time for them to remember how to score, with 4 goalless games inside the first 5 spring rounds setting them way back. This past summer, they followed up on the impressive opener (3:0 away victory at Bank) via 4 consecutive losses and the September talk about Václav Jílek nearing a sack. A mere 2 losses since R5 have fairly convincingly swung the momentum the other way, but they need to keep it.
Olomouc had been unable to end their autumn on a high for as long as I can remember. In fact, the last time they’d closed it out with a back-to-back triumph (like they did in 2022) was twenty-seven years ago. Martin Vaniak was a 2nd-year starter back then, a certain Karel Brückner was the coach. Another runner-up finish like in 1996 isn’t on the cards, but a strong spring could be. Underlying numbers sure do suggest there may be more to come.
Key numbers
0,11: The main reason why Sigma rank this high (4th) is their balanced profile and virtually no easily exploitable weakness. Despite enduring one of the tougher home schedules (featuring Slovácko, Plzeň, Slavia), they’ve found a way to control 56,8% of the non-penalty xG flow in their games (4th) and earn 57,5% of the actually scored goals (5th), all the while boasting 5th best offence and defence per non-penalty xG, as well. They are a fine set piece team at both ends; they press well without turning the ball over much. They do well in pushing opponents to the perimeter or robbing them eventually (the least xGA per touch in box), and forcing them to pull the trigger from afar (on average the second furthest distance from goal, inevitably leading to the lowest xGA per shot produced — 0,11). When your goalkeeper — however experienced he happens to be — stops shots at an above average rate on top of all this, you’re set to make a run for (European) money. At one point, Jakub Trefil held on to stay in the green re. prevented goals for five consecutive starts (R11-R15) — the longest run produced by anyone not named Staněk besides Jan Laštůvka (R7-R13; apologies to him).
-5,97: OK, let’s deal with the obvious elephant in the room. While I usually stir away from pinning the blame on a single individual, it’s genuinely hard to fight the feeling Antonín Růsek has single-handedly tanked Sigma’s finishing numbers. The poor guy is currently at 5,99 expected goals despite celebrating only two, putting a mere 11 shots on target from a vast total of 39. Now, there’s a ton of innocent misfortune sprinkled in between (he’s effectively cursed since he’s hit the woodwork an astonishing 5 times!), but simply misfiring from six very good positions (0,15+ xG) is squarely on him. Růsek is still a very useful player — involved in 7 goals and 22 chances (11 times as the primary creator) — but he’s been a frustrating finisher for much of his career (15 goals from almost 25 expected goals in the top flight) and that inevitably forms the public opinion on him above everything else. In the end, Sigma’s post-shot xG (only accounting for shots on target) lags behind the sum total of their pre-shot xG by nearly 6 goals — which would, hypothetically, take them on par with Sparta in terms of actual goals (30).
25-12: Even though it doesn’t necessarily show on the scoreline, Olomouc are some extremely fast starters. Their chance clock inside the first 15 minutes reads 25:12, and that’s not counting three follow-up chances for. The resulting chance differential of plus-13 is the second best in the league, following that of Slavia (plus-17). What’s maddening, though, is that Sigma only leads the other teams on goals scored 4:3 in the opening 1/4 hour. In fact, take the Brno matchup (R2) — three goalscoring opportunities in the first 7 minutes, boom, 0:2 final result. Or how about the Sparta matchup (R3) — two first great chances fall to Sigma, but the two goals fall to Sparta. Liberec (R6) literally had no idea how they survived the first 13 mins, absorbing a mouth-watering 1,68 xGA in the process — yet 1:1 it was. My point is: had Olomouc — who have a 7-2-2 record once holding a lead — taken proper care of these inspiring starts, they would’ve been way better off.
Most valuable player
The following few paragraphs will reference my own MVP model, introduced initially here, and further enriched for this season. I now divide chance-creating actions to primary and secondary (assigning different value to both), also credit creators for chances left unfinished not by their own fault, and instead of “low recovery” introduce more cherry-picked defensive metrics, “backstopping action” (preventing a chance from developing, be it via interception, duel or block) to go with “bypassed for a chance” (an error not punished by scoring). The space for goal-creating actions has been expanded to as many as three non-assist contributions to be appreciated by the model — as long as they truly contribute.
There’s zero doubt in my mind Mojmír Chytil is a Slavia-calibre player. Some of you longtime readers will remember, after all, that I’d propped him up as an elite centre forward after his actual breakout in 2021/22. This season, Chytil hasn’t necessarily been better or more dominant, but he’s certainly been more noticeable — a 3-time Deník Sport Man of the Match, a 6-time Team of the Week nominee, and a 6-time scorer himself. Beyond the public appreciation, Chytil is (narrowly) the 2nd best primary creator (16 to 17) and the very best secondary creator (14) on the team, in total participating on 12 of 25 goal moves Sigma have put together. No-brainer.
Wild card(s)
Look no further than the defence. Vít Beneš refuses to age like a normal human being and has made for a defensive stalwart once more (12 backstopping actions to 8 situations where he got bypassed for a chance), Ondřej Zmrzlý is enjoying that kind of a come-of-age campaign we were all hoping for (all 4 points notched in clutch situations; his 17 primary chance-creating actions leading the pack) and Juraj Chvátal continues to be an absolute beast in gaining the zone (48 successful penalty area entries from open play easily top the league) only to mostly come away empty-handed on the production front. In other words: even if Chytil leaves for Slavia right now, there are plenty of heirs, with Růsek and my longtime favourite Filip Zorvan (best per-90-min pace of all in chance creation) in with a shout, too.
Pre-season projection update
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account.
Seeing your chances at UEFA competitions bumped up by 5% despite getting knocked out of MOL Cup is a very positive message for Sigma fans. Their projected record hasn’t moved one bit, but thanks to the moving parts elsewhere, it’s still enough for Olomouc to jump to the strategic 4th slot. After not reaching the 40-point bar in 30 games in three most recent tries, Sigma are now clearing the threshold in roughly 84% of simulations — a virtual certainty given their current 45-point pace (1,5 points per game).
My bold prediction’s status: Very much on track.
I predicted no other FORTUNA:LIGA side to get more goals from defenders than Olomouc, and thanks to the cunning wording (“not more”), I would be banking 3 points with Sigma sitting side-by-side with Slovácko and Slavia on 7. While providing a reasoning for this bold prediction, I was partially betting on wrong factors (Vraštil is scoreless and set pieces improved only a tad — to 7th) but also on the right ones (Beneš is on track to indeed re-discover his 3-goal Jablonec standard and Zmrzlý did score from open play). With the 7 goals shared by six defenders, I’m positive there’s enough firepower for Olomouc to hang around the top and make this a homerun — for myself, but especially the 8 bettors as part of our little prediction game.
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