2022/23 team preview: FC Hradec Králové
Well, aren’t we being spoilt? For a third consecutive season, we saw a second-tier champion go over 1,3 points per regular season game, with Hradec Králové being statistically the least impressive of all three. Did it necessarily feel that way? You see, I said we are being spoilt! The million-dollar question now is: will the sophomore version of “Votroci” fall in the České Budějovice or Pardubice category? I can’t wait to find out…
Just to give you a rough idea: the past three second-tier champions together average 1,44 points per regular season game; a pace that — just as incredibly as comfortably — beats that of Bohemians (1,18), Mladá Boleslav (1,24) or Olomouc (1,26) over the same time frame. Liberec only narrowly escape the ignominy (1,45) and let’s rather not speak of the likes of Zlín, Teplice…
… of course, the real challenge is to adequately follow up. Pardubice finished 11th after all and managed to avoid the dreaded relegation play-off (very much the measuring stick of sophomore success/failure), but they never looked comfortable. Dynamo, on the other hand, boasted a 16-point cushion on the drop in late February and were officially safe with four rounds to spare.
I’m guessing Hradec Králové wouldn’t mind either way, to be honest.
For what it’s worth, “Votroci” are certainly not resting on their laurels. They’ve brought in a new fitness coach from Mladá Boleslav and introduced GPS technology. They didn’t get robbed on any transfer — or trade — they’ve made. And the new stadium finally looks to be on track; in late June, the municipal government approved the continuation of the construction works, started in February, along with the related expansion of the arena’s capacity from 8k to 9,5k.
Hradec Králové appear fully determined to stick around for a few more years.
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
Between March and April, “Votroci” politely declined to go on the usual downward trajectory of an impressive promoted side, instead upping their game — stopping one game short (9) of their recond unbeaten run from 1960.
Defensively, they wrapped up the season with sterling numbers all across the board (excluding set pieces): 5th lowest non-penalty xGA, 3rd lowest xG allowed from positional attacks, and lowest percentage of positional attacks finished off against them (19,2%). As far as two-way dominance goes, the right-hand side powered by Jan Mejdr was the highlight. Slavia owned the best one by far per xG share, then Dynamo and Hradec followed with theirs in mid-60%s while the rest of the league started the countdown at 57,1%.
What went (especially) wrong
If Pardubice were a calm, patient intellectual, Hradec were their younger brother with ADHD. The hyperactivity had its positive effects — like a third lowest number of opponent’s passes per defensive actions — but also fairly negative ones. Games featuring FCHK were in a constant state of flux, which has led to opponents cracking Hradec’s penalty box with relative ease (highest success rate) and forcing a lot of set pieces in transition. The team’s (tactical) fouling was a vastly overstated problem, mind, but a problem nonetheless. As many as three extra fouls per game compared to the second most frequent offenders (!) have got to show somewhere, and as luck would have it, Hradec indeed faced over one shot following indirect free kicks a game (16th) and 0,57 xGA generated off non-penalty set pieces per average game, too (15th).
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
As I type this… *keeps refreshing all major news sources on the internet*… Adam Vlkanova… *switches the radio on just to be on the safe side*… remains… *is teletext still a thing?*… a “Votrok”, so holy shit, activate plan A!
He couldn’t imagine himself staying on just a couple of weeks ago, but a mere one formal bid later (made by Slavia, duly laughed off by Hradec), it would be a wild understatement to now conclude Vlkanova has been “boxed in”.
You can see how the popular ‘Vlčák’ would feel entitled to a move. At 27, he’s given it all to Hradec Králové, having sorted through three different clubs in town itself, helping his current one earn a top flight promotion twice (once as a captain), winning the crown for 2nd-tier’s most prolific player (2019/20) and leading the club’s scoring race for three consecutive years (2017-2020).
At the same time, you can see how other clubs would stop short of tabling the desired €600k bid for a soon-to-be-28-year-old with one year remaining on his contract. Vlkanova is trapped, which is not to say overrated. Let me stress that.
Here’s a fantastic transitional player who just kept going all the while his role shifted rather dramatically — from the LW in a 3-4-3 to the LCM in a 3-5-2.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
You couldn’t possibly tell from just following the action in 2021/22, but there was a guy who more than doubled Vlkanova’s point gain in the promotion campaign. His name was familiar — Pavel Dvořák — and he went from 15 points in FNL to just 5 in F:L; from being one of the most efficient passers to the box to being largely a non-factor as far as chance creation is concerned.
Projecting how a 32-year-old does when transitioning from the second tier to the top flight is a tremendously difficult exercise, and projecting how a 33-year-old bounces back from a serious injury that robbed him of almost all spring action is, heck, no easier. I’d err on the side of caution if I was Miroslav Koubek, but the thing is… if Vlkanova leaves, Dvořák might still be the better bet to make a (creative) difference than Jakub Rada who’s freshly 35.
Inside the club’s off-season
Erm, that’s too much of pre-season action, surely! Also, are you sure you didn’t forget to press the “reset” button on a pre-planned off-season back when you were still in the second tier? Are you sure this is enough of a test?
Squad turnover
It’s become a good tradition that a FNL champion mostly keeps the band together, and it makes a fair amount of sense — you try your best to keep the momentum alive, to keep the ball rolling. It had worked out for Pardubice who retained the most minutes from among FORTUNA:LIGA clubs in summer 2020 despite losing two key loanees (Kohút, Zifčák), and it’s certainly worked out for Hradec Králové who didn’t lose a single player with over 1 000 mins.
Keeping it all intact following an impressive newcomer’s shift (inevitably made possible by a few individual breakouts here and there) is a bit of a different task, and it took some time for Dynamo to recover from losing Schranz’s points and Sivok’s voice, much like we’d just witnessed some serious getting used to life without Hlavatý, Ewerton or Surzyn at Pardubice.
Before Hradec Králové — having mostly impressed defensively — understandably lies a challenge of replacing 2/5s of their backline, with Jan Mejdr and Jan Král checking in at 15th and 32nd respectively on the league’s leaderboard of the busiest footballers. It’s hardly going to be straightforward.
Biggest upgrade
In the latest Deník Sport article, it’s suggested Vojtěch Smrž will mostly be used to plug holes and channel his top flight experience wherever needed, ad hoc. In pre-season, he was even deployed in the back three where he’s never been a regular. For me, that’d mean misusing your resources. Smrž is perfectly capable of starting on the right side of the midfield trio as a strong box-to-box presence that is felt by the opponent in both the literal and figurative sense.
My model is built to appreciate two-way brilliance — or balance if you will — and it’s no coincidence Smrž has quietly impressed in its eyes for two straight seasons. Back at Karviná, he already looked an above average progressive runner and passer for a holding midfielder, and he held his own on a more dominant side this past year. He was a lot more prone to fouling deep down (after leading the league in this respect in 2020/21), but he’s still added a fantastic net value in the back-end, making for a hidden weapon upfront.
And if you were to grade the straight-up (?) trade… A+ for Hradec. Especially as you’re potentially getting Smrž’s entire peak which he’s only just entered.
Biggest downgrade
On the face of it, it’s the Jan Mejdr for Adam Gabriel swap, if only for the obvious imbalance in 2021/22 usage. I’m personally playing a waiting game, but there are people out there who believe Sparta have made a bad deal while Hradec have actually upgraded. To be fair, Gabriel is of perfect physical built to replace some of the biggest strengths of Mejdr while possessing a wider passing range already. It’s just impossible to know right now if he puts it to good use on the top level; and the clock is quietly ticking for the 21-year-old.
Instead of Mejdr, then, I’m opting for Jan Král in this space. František Čech for Král may not be as big a downgrade quality-wise as it is size-wise, but the bottom line is crucial here: Král was the central figure of the back three, the glue that very much held it together, and only missed three games all season. Just ask Zlín how easy it’s proven to be to replace Petr Buchta who had also missed just three games in 2020/21. Král too was a duel-heavy, towering CB.
That said, I think Hradec were smart to cash in — for whatever Král brought to the table at first sight sort of crumbles once you give it another gander.
A big fella? Sure, but he was merely above average in aerial duels inside his own box (lagging behind his teammate Jakub Klíma) and made for a somewhat easy target to be turned inside out by a mobile attacker.
A lynchpin? OK, but what about his 1,01 losses leading to a shot per game? That’s a staggering total of 31 on the season, landing him right in the ballpark of David Šimek, Jakub Pokorný or Vojtěch Kubista — some of the most unpredictable centre halves out there you’d rather not be associated with.
New kid on the block
Hradec Králové had a decent representation in youth national teams over this past season. Defender Daniel Kutík and forwards David Jurčenko and Matěj Hodač (b. 2003-04) were part of the wider U-19 squad, with the former going to February training camp as the only 17-year-old. Adam Binar (b. 2006) was meanwhile a regular with U-16s and should also climb the ladder with time, while others may be on the way with Hradec U-15s and U-14s remarkably finishing as runners-up, in each case sitting between both Prague “S” clubs.
Kutík has already wound 2021/22 down as a B-team regular which is particularly good news because the reserves line-up in a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 formation as opposed to U-19s who prefer the traditional 4-4-2 variations. Kutík is therefore getting used to the unorthodox formula of the senior team, chewing on a bulk of experience at both left centre back and left wingback.
He’s a muscular young fella who knows when to side step a bit to open up a passing lane for himself, isn’t afraid to carry the ball upfield on long distance and usually appears in the right spot at the right time on a defensive set piece.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. This particular depth chart is up to date as of July 24 and subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 24. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
For what it’s worth, I don’t think “Votroci” register a pressing need to address at the moment. Perhaps “make Adam Vlkanova happy” would qualify, but what can you do? Besides, replacing the captain would immediately create a need of such epic proportions the club would almost certainly not address it appropriately. So, for now, let’s be blissfully ignorant on behalf of FCHK fans.
That being said, I wouldn’t mind adding a difference-maker upfront.
While that may be too vague a way to put it, this is what I roughly mean: Filip Kubala and Daniel Vašulín are fine pieces in their own right, but I don’t see any truly outstanding qualities on them. Kubala has introduced himself to the stage rather loudly, and fair enough to him, but if you pressed me for his main strengths (like Kuba once did), I wouldn’t just fire them away without a pause. He’s not particularly fast, won’t surprise you with many of his passes and spends too much time offside or fouling (-26 foul differential!). Besides, my luck index flags him as one of only 9 centre forwards who may have been a tad lucky with their finishing; don’t expect 0,29 goals per 90 mins again.
Vašulín, on the other hand, made for one of the unluckiest (good for at least 4 extra goals per my estimate) and there’s simply no way he continues to be involved in just every fourth goal Hradec score with him on the pitch, but he’s more of the same compared to Kubala in that he fouls a ton, mostly creates chances for himself alone with sheer determination, plus aerial ability.
I’d like to see more hold-up play, poise and/or elusiveness in their CF deck.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- I couldn’t find/convince any Hradec Králové fan to provide me with some valuable off-season temperature check (seriously, if you know of anyone, give me a shout!), but per Deník Sport, “Votroci” likely won’t rush Ondřej Ševčík — a tall centre piece of the 2nd tier’s 4th best defence per xGA — and still target Robin Hranáč should Plzeň start shedding some depth.
- Per xGF generated from positional attacks, Hradec owned the most toothless left-hand side of all, but that’s not really a knock on Filip Novotný who just loves to carry the ball upfield and does little else apart from it. He’s a decent counter-attacking weapon but won’t unlock a set defence for you, which is why a potential Otto Urma return to match fitness (no idea what’s going on there — it’s taking sooo much time) would be welcome.
- Going by his initially heavy pre-season workload, I was excited to see what the former wonderkid (remember?) Filip Firbacher has got to offer. Still just 20, he was once an under-age regular for a Euro-bound U-19s, but he’s decidedly look like a bust in the making since those 2019 qualifiers. This summer, too, an early promise was swiftly overridden by his absence from the last three pre-season friendlies. Possibly another loan to the 2nd tier?
- Another former youth international I can see having a lowkey breakout year: David Doležal (b. 2000). He’s a combative central midfielder who could be called upon to eventually replace Vlkanova’s dynamic impact.
- My alternative MVP should Vlkanova jump the ship: Jakub Klíma. He’s an astute buy from Mladá Boleslav who struggled to find use for him in a 4-at-the-back formation. As a RCB in Hradec’s back three, meanwhile, Klíma enjoyed the most freedom in stepping out to the attacking half, making the most of it with some smart ball-carrying and half-space feeding.
Roster battle to follow
I’ve already raved about Pavol Bajza in my earlier summer piece, highlighting him as the goalkeeping analytics darling and actually recommending him to Hradec Králové (who soon pounced), but he’s far from a sure-fire starter.
In fact, “Votroci” are possibly the only FORTUNA:LIGA team I can imagine rolling with either of their three senior options and not rolling my eyes at the same time. Bajza would be the hottest of the trio going by 2022 form; starting Patrik Vízek instead would mean giving a vote of confidence to an ever-improving, homegrown goalkeeper who’d done nothing to deserve benching; and Michal Reichl would mean a return to the promotion-earning starter.
It’s a dilemma I wouldn’t want to deal with, but who could be better suited to do it than Miroslav Koubek, former goalkeeper with actual experience of splitting the goal three-fold with two former no. 1s (at Sparta in 1978/79)?
Season forecast
Hradec are very likely to land in the relegation group (65%) a year on from squaring it off with the Top 5, which sounds like a terrible shock, but an 8% chance of getting relegated in a sophomore season? Don’t ask and run with it.
By the way, this is already a projection made based on an educated assumption that “Votroci” won’t manage to hold onto Vlkanova past the transfer deadline (8 September). If they somehow do and he doesn’t sulk, I can easily see the edge moving in favour of the middle group placement.
Bold prediction
The track record: -
The prediction: Hradec will set a club record for most unidentical XIs in a row
The rationale: Don’t pretend you didn’t expect a niche like this appearing in this space sooner or later. I fancy an irrelevant record as much as the next man, and Hradec Králové are on the verge of setting one of their own very soon. All they need to do is field a different starting XI in each of the first five rounds of 2022/23, something they’ve done ever since 15 August 2021 (32x).
The current club record (36 consecutive games) is held by Hradec Králové of 1995-96 and it’s not a particularly promising precedent, since that team only narrowly escaped relegation in both seasons this record ended up covering.
With so many parts potentially on the move early on in the season (Vlkanova, Gabriel suspended to start, pre-season injuries to Leibl and Čech…), this is as close to a safe bet as it gets here. I just wanted to share this niche with you.
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