2022/23 team preview: FC TRINITY Zlín
Another decade had gone by, another main sponsor has come in. For the first time this century, the essential change isn’t occurring on the back of a second-tier season. It isn’t occurring at the top of some wave of optimism either, though, with the club stuck in the bottom six for a concerning three straight years; first such dry spell since the mid-1990s…
In 2002, Zlín were climbing back up after a long six-year withdrawal. Tescoma was only 10 years old back then, a regional success story freshly gaining country-wide fame through a popular TV programme “Mňam aneb Prima vařečka”, so it made sense to partner with an up-and-coming club.
FC Tescoma Zlín responded fittingly — via finishing above neighbouring Slovácko not far off the 5th spot and then repeating the respectable 7th-place finish in the sophomore season. Five years later, they were getting relegated again, all the while selling Ondřej Čelůstka for a record fee to Slavia Praha.
It was time for a fresh start which arrived in 2012 via partnership with Fastav, Vsetín-based shopping centre developers with a funny typo on the main page. Fastav had to wait for a promotion till 2015 and the freshman year wasn’t a success, but it was followed by a maiden post-war Top 6 finish, made even sweeter by their second domestic cup triumph since doing the same in 1970.
On the whole, much like Tescoma, Fastav oversaw a fantastic first two years.
Can Trinity, a local bank, inspire the same kind of a turnaround? They can always lean on the experience of Tipsport, who’ll probably have like a 2-minute window for them each week with their ever-growing portfolio. They also have a very simple logo, while Trinity Bank’s is just the name, in all caps.
Football Club Zlín, however… they aim way higher. They needed something to symbolize a new journey they are setting on, so quite naturally, they opted for a symbol of the Labyrinth; you know — per Wikipedia — “an elaborate, confusing structure” designed to hold the Minotaur hostage until his slaying.
It was so confusing its own creator had trouble to find a way out. Much like the logo’s creator had trouble to fit in the letter Z, I suppose. Or how the social media admin appears to have trouble settling on whether it’s Trinity or TRINITY.
Anyway, off they go. Wish them luck, because they’ll bloody need it…
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
They finally got one over Slovácko without having their own goalkeeper face so much as a single shot (which they never replicated in 2021/22). They also absolutely dominated Baník Ostrava at Letná, to the tune of 26 shots for (twelve on target) and 8 shots against, registering one of their five xG performances that fit inside the league’s Top 100. Baník alone had 4 of those.
Zlín looked a pretty adept attacking outfit on the whole, finishing the largest share of positional attacks (26,9%) and cracking the penalty area with the 6th highest efficiency (46,7%) in the entire league. Once in full swing, Vakho Chanturishvili, Youba Dramé, Robert Hrubý and David Tkáč were plain unstoppable, all four making for some of the most efficient chance creators.
What went (especially) wrong
The sole fact that two of their five best xG performances led to a pair of blow-out 1:4 losses (Olomouc in R5, Bohemians in R33) tells you everything you need to know about how efficient finishers Fastav Zlín were. In those two games alone, they created a staggering 23 chances that went begging. Their PDO value (shooting + save %) only trailed that of Pardubice and Jablonec.
That said, it wasn’t all just some bad luck. Zlín were a legitimately terrible team on the road where they registered the 3rd most dramatic dip in deep completions (4,3 less per game) and controlled just 29,3% of xG flow (15th).
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
If you were assigned to compose a list of Top 5 signings of summer 2021 and didn’t find a spot for Robert Hrubý, you’d simply be doing something wrong.
After lowkey coming awfully close to a point-per-game pace in 2020/21 (7 points in 8,1 starts), he wasn’t a production monster but rather an underlying-numbers one in 2021/22, for a change, with my model appreciating him more wholly than Adam Hložek, Adam Vlkanova, Lukáš Sadílek or Bořek Dočkal.
Hrubý isn’t the fastest, most mobile and dynamic attacking midfielder — you’ll notice that at first sight — but he nonetheless gained 3rd most meters via dribbling per game, simply by picking his runs cleverly. Together with David Tkáč, they were a formidable duo in that whenever they got into the box, they exploded. Hrubý succeeded with 19 of his 31 attempted actions inside the box, meaning he either connected on a pass or hit the target with a shot, posting the highest success rate among attacking midfielders (61,3%). Tkáč was rather far behind (47,4%), but still better than all but 4 non-Hrubý CAMs.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Martin Cedidla is one of a kind. If he theoretically appears in all 16 remaining games on the 2022 schedule, he’ll stop two FORTUNA:LIGA appearances short of one hundred before even turning 21. That’d mean he’d come close to equalling Václav Kadlec and Antonín Fantiš who’d together held the record at 20 years and 11 months before a certain Adam Hložek arrived.
Fantiš, Cedidla’s current teammate and product of the renowned Příbram academy, had already been a subject of a high-profile transfer by that point (Baník spent €750k on him in 2010). Jan Polák, another early bird who didn’t grow up in a big Prague club, cost Liberec the same relative fortune in 2002.
Cedidla’s name, meanwhile, has barely even entered the rumour mill.
What is he doing wrong? Maybe it’s his massive figure popping up at right back; an unusual sight? Or a result of his three years as a regular overlapping with three years of Zlín being rubbish at getting results? Or, knowing mass media and coaching lingo, three points in over 5 000 mins are the problem?
Truth be told, my model isn’t especially fond of him either, but I like his crossing game and I don’t hate his athleticism for a huge guy. I’d like for him to make the move just to see him develop in a different environment, but with Martin Fillo healthy and seemingly preferred at RB, I see a long road ahead.
A different kind of a chip-on-the-shoulder candidate: Jakub Janetzký. He’s already had enough of a chance to stake his (starter’s) claim in place of Tkáč or Fantiš last season, and despite setting his personal best in points, he staunchly continues to be an absolute passenger in most phases of the game.
At 25, that’s probably all he is — a luxury player who barely helps you out with getting into the danger areas or even close to them, but once you’re there, he may as well chip in and inflict some damage. He’s probably best used as a sub.
It goes without saying that a four-season pro shouldn’t ideally lag behind a freshman in as complex, overwhelming a way as Janetzký does behind Tkáč.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @LZavit, @bar_lada and @Pesam15 for guiding me through the motions of Zlín’s pre-season
Squad turnover
This season is peculiar in one respect: as many as three teams have lost members of the league’s Top 10 in usage. Those would be Lukáš Sadílek of Slovácko (8th), Jaroslav Zelený of Jablonec (5th) and Cheick Condé of Zlín (3rd!). In the two previous years, this had only happened to two teams: Zlín lost Petr Buchta for free in 2021 (8th) and Slavia lost Vladimír Coufal the year before (10th). Considering the essential positions we are talking about (CB, CDM) and the additional hole created by Lukáš Vraštil (36th), it’s… oof.
Oh well, at least they got something for Condé, eh? Though literally every Zlín fan I’ve talked to was at least slightly disillusioned by the pricetag (€500k).
Biggest upgrade
It’s got to be the return of Lukáš Bartošák who I initially thought was coming to create competition for Vakho, but it turns out he’ll be relied on rather heavily as a starting left back due to the serious nature of Adam Hloušek’s Achilles heel injury. It’s not optimal given that his legs are all but gone and he’s a year away from entering the “steep decline” phase of his career, but Bartošák can still ball both as a set piece taker and open play contributor.
I can only offer a glance at his past performance on the wing, but there are positive signs that could translate to his fullback game as well — most notably his 80+ percentiles for primary chances created and cross-field passes. On a horrible Karviná team, his 0,92 chances created per 90 mins are the equivalent of a supernova (though 12/28 came via dead ball delivery).
Biggest downgrade
There was a time when I found Cheick Condé a tad overrated — too raw, too hasty to have Sparta and Slavia perform a tug of war over him as early as in autumn 2020 — but then he’d fallen off the radar a bit too much for my liking.
From one extreme to another, despite taking subtle steps forward — towards the tag of an elite single pivot. It takes a fine fine player to manage in that role, and Condé has decidedly become one, contributing both defensively and while starting off the various quick transitions Zlín have become known for.
Condé is a highly instinctive passer which inevitably leads to a fair few turnovers (his success rate on smart passes was awful — 3 of 17 completed), but the net value added is still on his side and he was on a different planet in terms of positional sense and agility compared to his deputy Marek Hlinka.
Despite all that, I’m intrigued by the arrival of Joss Didiba. I don’t have second-tier data on his inaugural season in a CDM role at Opava, but he had the makings of a decent holding midfielder under Radoslav Kováč’s tutelage in 2020/21. Back then, he was a top tier CB in possession-adjusted interceptions or passes to final third half space — ie. very much Condé’s profile — but struggled with defensive duels, which Condé very much did not.
One concerning similarity: a penchant for erratic fouling in danger areas.
New kid on the block
He started training with the A-team together with David Tkáč, who’s one year his senior, but he’s yet to earn a single minute in FORTUNA:LIGA. Now it’s bound to change if the pre-season workload is anything to go by. Adam Číž (b. 2003), nephew of Zdeněk Šenkeřík and Zlín’s foremost prospect for years, might finally be ready. He’s primarily a left winger (though he was played extensively at fullback in his first pre-season with “A”), and he’s already split his 2021/22 time between the U-19 top tier and MSFL, senior 3rd tier.
While his shooting technique and opportunism is far from developed— and his junior production far from blowing you away as a result — I can see a potential weapon in transition, always keen on creating a key separation from his marker with a cunning first touch, capable of turning quickly on a dime.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. This particular depth chart is up to date as of July 24 and subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 24. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
There’s quite a few clubs who should, in my eyes, be out and about searching for a centre back. I’ve thus far highlighted six in this space or elsewhere, for various reasons, and their needs don’t necessarily overlap. Slavia or Slovácko naturally wouldn’t fish for the same kind — or indeed level — of a centre back like Brno, Jablonec, Bohemians or Pardubice. Zlín also have a type: specifically a Lukáš Vraštil type of a centre back they badly need.
They seemingly think they can replace him internally, since coach Jan Jelínek himself highlighted Jakub Kolář (b. 2000) in his curtain-raising press conference. Maybe he’s able, but after just over 1 000 top flight minutes, we just cannot possibly know for sure. And @Pesam15 would have some reservations to begin with: “He reads the game very well but always seems subordinate to the much more experienced Simerský and Procházka. Kolář needs to find his voice and lead the defence but I’m not sure he has the confidence to do it.” I don’t necessarily think Kolář needs to be a leader but he needs to be assertive, for sure, to fully replicate what Vraštil had done for the club.
Apart from being one of the best chance creators among CBs (a luxury), Vraštil simply loved the ball and it naturally gravitated towards him. He would sweep up a ton of loose balls, boasting 4th highest success rate, dominated in the air, having won a spectacular 25 of 30 aerial duels in his own box alone, and did well with keeping the ball in circulation following his own clearances.
The current starting duo, with precious little back-up, can together do maybe one of those things (Dominik Simerský is also very good in the air) while there exists at least a small chance Václav Procházka remembers how to play the ball after falling off the cliff in 2021/22 (he doesn’t grade out as even average in any of the passing metrics). At 38, it wouldn’t be a smart bet to make, however. Procházka is most likely washed at this point, perhaps only squeezing another extension out of Zlín for their apparent laziness to target any CB at all. Maybe Didiba drops into the backline eventually, but as long as Hlinka is on the sidelines injured, this option is most likely off the table.
And until then at the very least, you’ve got a CB pair that — per @LZavit — “never looks compact and any fast attacker is an insoluble riddle for it.”
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- The injury situation of this team truly is miserable. As far as I’m concerned, you may as well colour Hloušek red, too, while the only good news is that Hrubý’s knee issue isn’t grave and shouldn’t prevent him from joining up with his teammates sometime next week at the latest. The pubic region, however, is a very tricky body part to treat — as Tkáč is sadly finding out — and the coach has also lost his talisman and fan favourite Fantiš to a collarbone fracture as a result of a heavy scooter collision. Holy mackerel.
- At least Jakub Yunis, this off-season’s “Schwarzer Peter” or hot potato if you will, isn’t signing after failing to impress at his second trial. The need for a centre forward was clearly there, and the club took care of it by bringing Jan Silný over whom I have a sweet little soft spot for. He was the third strongest attacker of the box per my model — only with next to no goals to show for it. I like the way he activates, looks to lay-off the ball but also receive it back, and somewhat naturally draws fouls from his markers. He’s belatedly replacing Tomáš Poznar in that he’s not a transitional attacker and that’s perfectly OK given that the team already has (a very capable) one in Vukadin Vukadinović. Silný, meanwhile, brings along a promise of a sharp fox in the box — succeeding with a second-best 22 of 45 actions inside the box; a stark departure from Poznar’s very poor 18 of 64.
- Missing from the depth chart are two complete unknowns: Johnson Owusu, a right-footed right winger who appears to be well-suited for a counter-attacking style, and striker Nedeljko Kovinić who immediately replaces Šimon Chwaszcz —reportedly on his way out to Kroměříž — as the fourth/fifth (depending on Fantiš’s role) striker in the pecking order. Centre forward might be where Lamin Jawo mostly features, too, which would be a peculiar state of affairs given his complete inability to finish.
- Youba Dramé is an interesting case study in that he mostly counts neutral spectators among his fans because he just makes things happen, but drives a few actual Zlín fans crazy with his single-minded nature. My model, too, sees a below-average creator who’s however more than capable of creating good opportunities on his own — and that’s a quality Zlín absolutely need.
- Rudolf Reiter is back on loan, as he apparently still has a contract at Baník, and he had the right role carved out for him by coach Jelínek. I wouldn’t fancy him as a starter, but for a last-20 sub he’s perfect — carrying the sense of urgency, straightforwardness often required off the bench.
Roster battle to follow
After a weird season he had started off with an injury and wound up not rushed back, instead keeping himself a little bit busy with the reserves, Stanislav Dostál is now most definitely back and in for another ride as a starter. He’ll be replacing Matej Rakovan who may have just cemented his “too-good-for-a-backup, not-good-enough-for-a-starter” reputation.
Rakovan was hardly the problem last season, far from it, but you may notice how he doesn’t exactly help his team with his distribution. Dostál should be a definite upgrade on him in that respect and I wonder how much he elevates the pressure on this team collectively replacing Vraštil (probably not much).
Season forecast
This is, relatively speaking, a brutal projection which I don’t necessarily adhere to. Zlín have reached the 30-point mark within 30 rounds on six of the seven counts since returning to the first tier (2019/20 being the sole exception), yet now they are given a mere 33% chance to repeat the feat?
I’m not buying it. Neither am I sold on them having just an 18% chance of landing 11th or higher — positions they actually held following twenty of last term’s 30 rounds, including the consecutive 13 to close out the regular season.
Sure, they’ve gotten worse. But not that much worse relative to their rivals.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/1. Poznar (46th) was the closest to Top 10 in scoring
The prediction: Zlín’s Letná will witness more goals than Prague’s Letná
The rationale: Just to be honest with you straight off the bat: this wouldn’t be too shocking since it was actually true for 2021/22. Only two stadiums were more scoring-friendly last season (Lokotrans Arena for M. Boleslav games, Městský stadion in Vítkovice), while Zlín’s Letná averaged 3,22 goals per match — narrowly beating the more famous Letná’s average of 3,17 goals.
That being said, 2021/22 was clearly an outlier. The season before that, Sparta’s home ground comfortably led the league (3,94) with Zlín’s arena nowhere near to be found (2,65). Prague’s Letná also led the league in this respect in 2019/20 (Zlín was 9th), with Zlín’s Letná taking the centre stage in 2017/18 and otherwise always trailing its “brother from a different mother”.
Zlín’s Letná celebrates the 70th anniversary next year, so let’s get wild again!
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