2023/24 mid-season review, chapter 4: The peloton
The uglier brother of the season previews has arrived: my mid-season reviews never feature pizza charts and other player-related graphics, which has in the past (coupled with the 2023 presidential election buzz) earned them limited attention, and this year won’t be different in this regard. It will be different in just about every other regard, though, as I scramble for spare time as a fresh Zambian resident, thus opting for a “budget” version of my usual mid-season routine. For the first time, therefore, I group multiple teams together — and do so not based on how I rate their autumn, but how I see them positioned ambition-wise going into the spring. I hope you enjoy this 4-part series as a week-end warm-up.
4. 1. FC Slovácko
The outlook
Coach Martin Svědík and CEO Petr Pojezný were super cautious at the curtain-raising press conference before the league restart, with the latter mentioning the Top 6 as the only goal and the former refusing to talk about his team’s chances for a European re-run. Well, the chances are steep per our model (91%), and landing inside the championship group is pretty much a given since Slovácko only dropped out of Top 5 in ~3k of 100k simulations. There’s humility and then there’s a criminal lack of ambition.
I have a feeling that not only neutrals, but maybe even people inside 1. FC Slovácko, didn’t quite notice or realize how great an autumn they’d put together. They’ve got the tough Ostrava and Boleslav matchups out of the way while going 2-2-0 against them. Perhaps more significantly, Svědík may not face his Nemesis, Jaroslav Veselý, again this season after dispatching Bohemka twice thanks to two of the most effective attacking performances in 2023/24 — an unusual sight. Slovácko only get to face the Top 3 in their own backyard. And their only remaining trips to Top 10 are to Liberec (8th) and Teplice (10th). Make no mistake, Slovácko surrendering their current position would absolutely be a sign of an underwhelming spring.
The big question
How does Valenta’s departure influence Marek Havlík’s… influence?
Matěj Valenta has for a longtime been severely underrated midfielder. He was a perfect no. 8 — prompt playmaker with a sense of defensive responsibility and urgency — who had helped to unleash Havlík in a newfound no. 10 role to a far greater extent than he’s given credit for. While public may not realize that, Svědík certainly does per his pre-spring presser, and despite suggesting the club is still on the lookout for an external fix, he’s left scrambling for internal solutions at this moment.
The thing is, Slovácko are desperately short on Valenta’s, much like the entire Czech football is short on these creative yet combative profiles. Michal Kohút had looked like he might get there one day, but injury robbed him of almost the entire 2023, so now we cannot be sure. Vlastimil Daníček is now a full-time centre back and wouldn’t quite fit the mould anyway. Kim Seung-bin? Svědík mentioned him as an option, but I can’t see it — he’s Havlík’s rival if anything, and rounding him into a no. 8 would be a shame.
The answer, then, might be Havlík himself moving lower down the pitch again. Svědík will probably resist this solution for as long as possible, but I kind of consider it the most likely down the line. The Uherské Hradiště patriot, who still hasn’t extended, won’t be outperforming his individual xG by 6,4 goals forever, after all. It was a nice run, but one compensated with 0 assists from 3,68 expected ones. A 3-goal spring is the follow-up I’d bet on.
The one thing to be positive about
As ever, it’s defence. Slovácko’s penalty area is typically sealed off in open play, with the opponents only succeeding in entering it in possession 43% of the time (2nd best rate), while a whopping 78,1% of positional attacks led against Slovácko do not end up in a shot (also the 2nd best rate). This is also down to Svědík’s eager fostering of a hard-working team unit that has actually performed the highest average of ball recoveries in defensive and middle third, which is not common for a Top 4 side (Slavia 9th, Sparta 16h).
Perhaps the most important takeaway from this half-a-season, however, is yet another bounce-back from Petr Reinberk who just refuses to go against all odds (much like Michal Kadlec). After Slovácko’s right-hand side ranked between České Budějovice and Jablonec (12th) in terms of xG dominance last season, right now it’s sandwiched by Sparta and Slavia (2nd) for a change. Reinberk, opening 17 of the 19 games at 34, wasn’t the only contributor, but he’s mostly responsible for Slovácko completely shutting down their opponents down the right (for 0 xG from build-up) in eight matches. Slavia’s most consistently excellent channel was the left one (4 games), Sparta’s and Plzeň’s was the right one (5x and 4x respectively).
The one thing to be concerned about
If there was something wrong with Slovácko for much of their successful era under Martin Svědík’s guidance, it’s the lack of a proven goalscorer. Whenever someone blossoms, they are typically gone in an instant (Kliment, Jurečka). And for most of the time, there’s no one to lean on. This season it’s Marek Havlík, but we’ve already touched upon how much of an unsustainable travesty that appears to be. In fact, let’s elaborate…
If we accounted only for shots on target, their placement and precision, then Havlík was actually good for 4,65 goals instead of the 3,6 per (traditional) pre-shot xG. If you saw his wondergoals, this won’t surprise you. But my point is, he’s alone on an island as this top notch finisher. If his shots on target are collectively worth over 1 goal more than all shots, then Slovácko as a whole are a concerning 3,5 goals far down the other way. If you were to take out Havlík and his exploits, Slovácko are actually 3rd worst finishers in the league — with their star, it’s not much better at 4th worst.
This is partially down to how (un)picky Svědík’s players are in terms of shooting positions, on averaging testing their luck from 19,41 meters. That’s not a good sign as the only F:LIGA side doing it from further away is the clueless Dynamo sitting at the very bottom of the league table.
3. FC Viktoria Plzeň
The outlook
Look, if you were sat on your sofa on 4 August, having seen Plzeň fail to beat Teplice and Hradec Králové early doors while struggling to overcome Kosovo’s Drita at their first European hurdle of many, thinking something along the lines of “yeah, this is a team that’s going to sweep their Conference League group without conceding more than one goal and maintain a virtual guarantee of more international action come 2024/25”… you must be the mankind’s finest genius. And you scare me for that.
It’s not like Plzeň were any ugly duckling prior to the season — their UEFA competition odds are only up by 7%, after all, and they had been fantastic already (while they have no chance of becoming champions now as opposed to some chance before). But it’s the style they did it with despite Miroslav Koubek being an early favourite for the first coach to go; by racking up a club-record 12 competitive wins in a row while maintaining high intensity off the ball throughout and finally once again entertaining.
The big question
Are we getting to see the Guľa original — attacking-minded Kalvach — again?
I’m delighted for Pavel Bucha getting his fresh start in the states. It was arguably long overdue and could end up being a win-win situation for the player — who has seen his primary chance creation wane dramatically — and the club — who now have a backup holding midfielder in Červ and a bonafide no. 8 tweener in Valenta who can both push a star midfielder further up. Make no mistake, Lukáš Kalvach is still the team’s best player regardless of the great progression from Pavel Šulc or Rafiu Durosinmi, but his chance-creating total (28) is propped up big time by set piece delivery (23). That doesn’t necessarily constitute a problem — Plzeň’s average xGF over the last 10 rounds without Durosinmi (!) still only lagged behind Sparta, while hovering above 2 goals per 90 mins and 0,3 xGF above 3rd-ranked Mladá Boleslav — but it’s never a bad thing to give your best passer more of a platform to pass into the penalty box, something Kalvach has done at a fairly disappointing rate (his 20 deep completed passes mean a worse per-90-mins rate than Ibrahim Traoré’s 17 for example).
Adrián Guľa may not be remembered too fondly by Plzeň fans, but he was the coach who had helped elevate Kalvach’s attacking game considerably. Now it appears to be a good time to build on that 2019-21 promise when he was cracking the penalty area from open play about 1,5 times more often.
The one thing to be positive about
Koubek’s Hradec teams were super-intense, landing in the Top 5 in terms of (opponent’s) passes allowed per defensive action in both seasons, and typically being the most active/effective in terms of recovering balls up high via engaging in a ground or aerial duel. That was why picking the passive Weber as Koubek’s successor was never going to work (it was, in fact, mind-blowingly stupid), and why Koubek was such a fine fit for Plzeň who were a similar kind of annoying, structured outfit off the ball under Guľa (2nd in PPDA in both years). Bílek made the cautious brand of football work for Viktoria, but only for a limited amount of time, and with the likes of Šulc and Dweh coming on board, it would be an increasingly poor fit.
Plzeň made a fantastic, informed decision in hiring the 70something veteran, and now they are paying dividens by acting as recovering machines up high whose faster ball circulation is a big factor in making all their 3 attacking channels rank in the Top 3 as per threat generated. Not even Prague “S” can say that for themselves; a huge testament to Koubek.
The one thing to be concerned about
Plzeň are a very good attacking team, there’s no doubt about that. They pick their shooting positions carefully, and they make the most of their finishes. At the same time, it feels worth pointing out that Plzeň have benefitted greatly from below-par goalkeeping, receiving help from a total of 10 poor performances by opposing custodians, with 5 of them meeting my threshold for a complete flop (at least 1 goal allowed above expected).
This may not actually be that significant, since Plzeň won four of those games by scoring 3+ more goals than the opposing side anyway, but it was the adversary’s goalkeeping what very much aided Plzeň in both tough matchups with Olomouc (bagging 5 goals from a deserved 2,57), and what fetched them a rare victory in the crucial R9-15 misery vs Jablonec (3:2).
2. SK Slavia Praha
The outlook
In the four years of doing mid-season reviews, this is the first time I don’t rank Slavia at the very top of the pack. In most years, it wasn’t even close — particularly in 2021 when I had Sparta 4th. Now, it’s not like Slavia had a bad autumn; it’s mostly on their immediate rival being better than ever. This is still a team that fits 10 of their xG matchups in the league’s Top 50 in terms of margins (it’s just that Sparta registers 13 of those). This is still a team that, per Jakub’s model, overachieved by 5,3 points compared to the pre-season forecast (it’s just that Sparta broke that same model by going a ridiculous 10,5 points extra). This is still a team that’s league-best in so many important metrics including shares in shots or penalty area entries.
Nevermind, sometimes you’ve just got to give it up for your arch rivals, and this is arguably the most suitable time of all to do so — even if reluctantly.
The big question
How much of a ground can Slavia make up in the early spring goings?
Perhaps more than ever, the title destination will — in my opinion — be decided by the first few February/March weeks. Slavia will be able to focus squarely on their domestic exploits as opposed to Sparta who are back in European action as early as this coming Thursday, and their first four domestic duties involve Zlín, Jablonec, Karviná and Pardubice before bumping into Sparta twice, first in MOL Cup, then in the league rematch.
Sparta, meanwhile, also travel all the way to Karviná early on, but apart from that they await a trip to Istanbul and a usually unpleasant visit of Uherské Hradiště, while facing Liberec at home inbetween. Their follow up on the derby double header is also much tougher: Plzeň away as opposed to Teplice at home which will be the case for a well-rested Slavia.
Even if they only draw with Sparta in the league derby, Slavia simply must jump in front of their rivals by mid-March. If that happens to be the case, they will be odds-on favourites for the title halfway through spring regular season. If they don’t, I’ll have even less doubts about Sparta retaining.
The one thing to be positive about
If you’re of the opinion that solid defences win the trophies more than booming attacks do, then Slavia are in the luck. Their defensive performances have once again left only a little to be desired aside from the brainfarts that have arguably become too common an occurrence. Per non-penalty xGA, Slavia are not lower than they were at the end of the past two seasons (0,71 last year and 0,76 the year before), but they still lead the pack convincingly with 0,82 xGA per game. They have steadily improved on defensive set pieces over the years, reaching the heights of average 0,21 xGA generated from non-penalty set pieces per 2023/24 game. Finally, Slavia opponents complete the least passes and the least crosses into their penalty area, while attempting the least carry-ins with the ball at their feet. That’s an impressive sweep. Sparta, by comparison, rank 5th, 2nd and 3rd.
The one thing to be concerned about
For once, Slavia enjoyed a dominant UEFA autumn, which may be one explanation for their sluggish starts to domestic games. It’s not like they wouldn’t dominate most of their league first halves per expected goals, but while Sparta’s actual goal differential reads a stunning plus-23 goals, Slavia are somewhat glad they are even in the green with their 14:8 goal ratio. In terms of xG over/underperformance before the break, Slavia are lagging behind their expected goal differential by roughly 5 strikes. Only Dynamo are doing worse in this respect and that’s not your ideal comparable.
What’s also of notable concern is Slavia’s relative lack of dominance down the middle, something that must be attributed to the many teething problems with a newly established 3-at-the-back formation often taking the form of 3-4-3 with only two midfielders. While last term, Slavia controlled over 70% of xG flow down the central channel, now they are at 60,2%. That still doesn’t seem too low, but trust me it is — it lags behind Baník or Liberec, and while Sparta also employ a central midfield that lacks in numbers compared to most opponents, they lead the league with 74,7%.
Perhaps most alarmingly, this trend wasn’t getting overturned as Slavia were getting used to the new system. Quite the opposite, they were outchances through the middle in all five of their most recent games.
1. AC Sparta Praha
The outlook
This is officially Sparta’s title to lose. It’s not like Jakub’s model, incorporating my off-season assessment of changes on and off the field, didn’t believe in their title defence before we got going, but it was certainly leaning in the more conservative direction by giving it a 27% chance. Now Sparta are at 56% despite a tougher schedule ahead of them, courtesy of remaining unbeaten in three of the more demanding away games on schedule (Slavia, Liberec, Ostrava) and taking care of the home business against three of the more dangerous visitors (Plzeň, Olomouc, Slovácko).
The big question
Can Sparta ride the PDO wave all the way to yet another league title?
It’s very common for champions to boast a high PDO. It’s almost an obligatory pre-condition for a contender, really, since it’s putting shooting percentage and save percentage next to each other. The higher the PDO value is, the luckier bastards you are — with fine finishers and goalkeepers to call upon. That being said, the highest PDO was an empty promise for Slavia last year after it served them well in 2020/21 and Plzeň too in 2021/22.
Sparta are currently leading the pack with 108,7 PDO, which tells us little on its own, but the underlying numbers backing it up are not necessarily what you’d like to see as a Sparta fan. The good thing is that the opposing players haven’t been doing a splendid job on finishing. The bad thing is that Peter Vindahl was, nevertheless, required to be superb. He must’ve come to the team’s rescue against Zlín twice, which alone makes you pause, but he was also a huge difference-maker against Ostrava when Sparta got outshot by 14 attempts which hadn’t happened in my years of F:LIGA coverage.
All told, Sparta now boast the 2nd best goalkeeping in the league, which sounds like a great thing to have, but it’s also dangerous. They didn’t need to rely on Kovář as much last year, and neither did Plzeň rely too much on Staněk the year before. Sure, you need a steady goalie (hence Top 6 goalkeepers winning the title in 2021-23), but you’d ideally do a better job shielding him from danger than Sparta have done this term. About that…
The one thing to be concerned about
Per non-penalty xGA, Sparta still deploy the second best defence right after Slavia. That’s fine, but it only tells the story of attacks that do get finished. What if your opponents get into your box at too high a rate only to then underwhelm? That’s not so much a good image of yours as it is a bad one of them, right? And that’s very much where Sparta are at this season as opposed to 2022/23 when it was nigh impossible to complete a cross or a pass in their own box, while the 2nd highest number of penalty area entry attempts failed against them. This time around, Sparta are much more welcoming, actually failing to deny a penalty area entry in 47,4% of cases. That rate ranks an alarming 13th in the league; only Pardubice, Budějovice and Zlín are doing worse in this respect, and they form the bottom four.
Maybe this has something to do with the turnovers made deep inside Sparta’s own third. This wasn’t a problem earlier, but it was a massive problem following the Mladá Boleslav disaster (1:3) born out of counter-attacks, with Filip Panák — the Czech Beckenbauer — looking lost. Until that round (13), he was responsible for a single ball loss leading to shot against. Since then, he’s accumulated nine of them, many via misplaced pass. Could that be on a lingering injury or simply fatigue? Even if, it’s a grave concern.
The one thing to be positive about
Fine, defending a penalty area is a trouble, but what about attacking it? That’s where Sparta carry all the signs of a true FORTUNA:LIGA monster.
They successfully crack the box with 51,2% of their attempts, not going into the double digits with the number of successful entries on only three occasions. In the end, Sparta are by far the most dominant side in terms of controlling xG flow when both sides are set and there are attacks being carefully built-up. In this regard, Sparta are responsible for 71,7% of all threat occuring in their games; the only side meeting the 70-percent threshold (Slavia are at 68,8%). If you add an even greater two-way dominance on set pieces (72,5%), you’re all set — and unsurprisingly good for the largest non-penalty goal share by a 7-percent distance (78,9%) after getting accussed of relying too much on penalties in 2022/23 and indeed earning only 65,9% of them (as opposed to Slavia’s 80,3%). This time around, there can be no doubt about Sparta’s title contender credentials.
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