2023/24 team preview: 1. FC Slovácko
One and done? We will not see the satisfying picture of Martin Svědík taking questions from foreign journalists for at least a year — and maybe never again as long as he’s at Slovácko, where he’s now freshly signed through 2025 and tasked with slowing down the seemingly ongoing age-related decline. Their point-per-game pace was worringly down from 1,94 to 1,43 but it remains to be seen whether it wasn’t just a result of having to navigate “English weeks” with a thin squad full of 30somethings.
It was obviously a fantastic experience worth repeating — with Slovácko selling north of 7k tickets for each of their home Conference League group stages matches to dish out an instant 6-goal classic at first try — but I suppose a year-long “break” could actually end up delaying the demise.
A 38-year-old Michal Kadlec was asked to swallow about 3 700 mins of competitive action across 45 games; a load he’d never carried in his life. Milan Petržela was last coming off a comparably demanding campaign 9 years ago when he was freshly into his 30s. The very same goes for Jan Kalabiška and his 2013/14 Senica season; he was peaking at 27 years of age at the end of it. Not to mention Stanislav Hofmann (3 552 mins) or Vlastimil Daníček (3 394 mins) who’ve easily set their career highs, and a visibly knackered Petr Reinberk — likeable hero of the historic night on French soil — feeling the heat of over 10k mins spread across the last four seasons.
This has always felt like one last (European) hurrah of the bunch, and while Kadlec has agreed to stay on for one more year, it’s tempting to treat it as his last. Much like in the case of Petržela who’ll reach the Mount Olympus of his career — 500 top flight matches as the first person ever — in 18 rounds.
Or, you know, they’ll continue to defy logic, earn one more shot at UEFA knock-out stages and laugh in our faces. I wouldn’t put it past them…
Hence, development off the pitch — or lack there of — might be more concerning. The loss of the popular assistant coach Josef Mucha shall be offset by Tomáš Palinek, 27-year-old son of former centre back Jan (also at club) with intriguing experience from Sigma Olomouc B and Jihlava, but there appears to be more pressing stuff to deal with. Fans demand new signings under club’s every post on social media and generally ask: where did the Conference League money (something around 100 mil. CZK) go?
(In reality, they don’t really ask because a rumour is circling Uherské Hradiště that co-owner Zdeněk Zemek, recently made exempt from at least part of his obligations, has used much of the profit to clear his own debts.)
Veliče Šumulikoski envisages a single training centre for the whole club, so different categories don’t divide time between three practice locations, but as long as there’s talk about the two co-owners not really seeing eye-to-eye, I’d rather hold my breath. After all, plans to strengthen the marketing department were scrapped at the last minute due to lacking financial resources. Then again, one of the co-owners has recently bought the 6th/7th-tier club at one of the said locations (Kunovice) with a view to round it into some sort of parallel Slovácko reserves and a few brand new skyboxes for rich people have been introduced, so there’s that… I guess.
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
Slovácko were right up there with the Top 3 defensively in terms of xGA conceded (4th) and shots allowed (3rd), seeing all three of their channels — left, right, central — rank inside the Top 3 when it comes to positional-attack xGA (something only Slavia — league leader on all three counts — can claim). This is a direct result of Slovácko’s opponents generally struggling to complete both passes and crosses in/to their penalty area (3rd least in both respects). Between Rounds 16 and 25, Slovácko’s rolling 10-game xGA would drop as low as 0,73 — providing them with the sort of consistent sturdiness only Slavia were able to showcase in 2022/23 (going as deep as 0,37!). The lowest — hence the best — point Sparta would ever reach was still nearly 0,2 xGA higher while Plzeň never even went below one expected goal against.
What went (especially) wrong
Most people had definitely imagined Slovácko improving far more noticeably once the European spotlight was no longer their business. Their point-per-game pace midway through 2022/23 was effectively the same as their season-long one (1,38); disjointed first-half performances were only marginally less prevalent occurrences following winter (Slovácko still proceeded to put in seven attacking shockers where they didn’t boast even a 25% chance of scoring before the break per xGF); goalkeeping still wasn’t great (ultimately second worst per collective prevented goals); and opponents still enjoyed a relatively free ride on corner kicks, sourcing a league-high 19,1% of all shots produced against Slovácko that one way!
Something tactics-related Slovácko absolutely need to address in the upcoming campaign is their laboured build-up. Svědík’s side showcased the slowest pace towards the opposing goal and effectively gave up on the prospect of stunning anyone on a counter (second lowest xGF generated), gradually declining on that front since 2020/21 (from 0,17 then to 0,08 now).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Marek Havlík (11th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Marek Havlík (CDM)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Marek Havlík
Welcome to the first unanimous MVP choice. Kim Seung-bin narrowly beat Marek Havlík in terms of OBV, but his 600-minute sample stands in such a stark contrast with Havlík’s 3 000-minute one that I just couldn’t do it.
When all is said and done, Havlík will most likely go down in history as one of the best Czech internationals stuck at exactly one appearance (purely Covid-induced in his case) for all/much of their careers. It’s going to stand the test of time as one of the great injustices/travesties of our time, hand in hand with other largely ignored outside-of-Prague success stories, like the sole caps handed to Oldřich Machala, Petr Křivánek (other Moravian icons), Josef Obajdin (once a Liberec-based bomber) or Karel Vácha (once a safe bet to attack the 10-goal threshold for České Budějovice) in the 1990s.
You may recall I was worried for Havlík when his favourite partner in crime left for Sparta. But then the veteran of 11 top flight seasons (I know right) turned in one of his best individual campaigns yet, delivering at least above average results in all 18 metrics I feed into my model but two. He was once again league’s foremost set piece maestro (chipping in with F:LIGA-leading 28 deliveries to set up a chance), through ball threader and diagonal spreader, all the while doing better than you’d expect on aerials.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Michal Trávník returns for his third run with the club. He practically stays on from last season, but back then he was still a Sparta loanee (whose rich salary was shared by the two clubs), whereas now he’s a reported €300k investment which makes the stakes higher than ever. Slovácko managed to cut the price down from a demanded €415k, but it’s still legitimate to ask:
Is the current, 29-year-old version of Michal Trávník worth the splash?
I’d (strongly) argue he’s not. His homegrown status is not an asset away from UEFA competitions, and there’s just too big an argument to be made about him being a considerable drag as part of the Havlík-headed double pivot (or further up). He doesn’t set up chances both as a primary (xA) and secondary creator where he’s participated on the third least chances/goals. When you share the stage with Jakub bloody Janetzký, you’d better quit. Plus, he doesn’t look to progress play by either dribbling or passing (one accurate through pass in over 16 starts). It’s not like there’s any need for the latter next to Havlík, but I mean… there ought to be a need for something.
And I just don’t see much of anything that would edge, say, Matěj Valenta.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @Jiri_Stockmann and @slovackonafurt for guiding me through the motions of Slovácko’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Slovácko always carry over a substantial amount of top flight minutes, rivalling Plzeň for the most rigid squad each year, and while that’s not quite the case this summer right now, I can see them climbing up at least two spots (ahead of Sparta and Mladá Boleslav who still expect departures) to 5th place. Slovácko have lost a fine character and underrated utility man in Patrik Šimko, but strong locker room presence won’t ever be a problem there, and otherwise it’s been mostly about shedding players Svědík had a particular issue with (Vladislav Levin, Libor Kozák) or those guys who didn’t necessarily perform to high enough a standard (Ondřej Šašinka, Filip Nguyen). In fact, speaking of Nguyen (2nd most used league-wide): accounting for outfield players only, Slovácko are over 90% mins retained…
Biggest upgrade
I don’t usually go after addition-by-subtraction candidates in this space, but it’s difficult to not make an exception here. The returning Rigino Cicilia was part of my twin biggest downgrade last summer, so you can be sure I’m generally high on his target man upside, but how sure exactly I could be of his current quality/fitness levels knowing he was just an Eerste Divisie impact sub at Heracles (actually doing well, bagging 6 goals off the bench) and that he’d arguably put in more effort in a nearby brothel rather than on the training ground while at Slovácko? Knowing their complicated history, Cicilia has a “frequent Svědík complaint target” written all over him.
So, after Valenta underwhelmed a little at Slovan Liberec, I’ve got to go with Filip Nguyen, even if I can’t be sure of whether Milan Heča represents an upgrade on him either. It’s really tough, trust me. But it’s equally tough to predict Heča enjoying the joint-worst shot stopping season in the league at this point. It’s certainly possible given his track record — he was a poor shot stopper (20th of 24) who couldn’t be relied on in terms of consistency (21st of 24) in 2021/22 — but he at least deserves some benefit of the doubt to begin with, while Nguyen has been a below-average starter in most respects for nearly all of his career, making for a very good riddance.
Especially in exchange for the reported €400k it absolutely is…
Biggest downgrade
Luckily for Slovácko, it’s just as tough to find a suitable downgrade. I do believe they’ll miss Patrik Šimko who’s reasonably comfortable deputizing at like four different positions (including left back or holding midfielder), but he wouldn’t feel right in this space. So I’ll reach back to Michal Tomič who had already jumped the ship in winter but hasn’t been replaced since.
In fact, he may still turn out to be his own replacement, so I could soon look silly, but as of now, the lone true — wildly unproven — right back alternative has been loaned out to the 2nd tier (Vojtěch Bartoš), perhaps only leaving wing(back) Vlasiy Sinyavskiy behind to back up 34-year-old Reinberk. That’s not an ideal situation to be in a day ahead of kick-off.
Anyway, the Tomič departure has hurt the most with regards to agility; something he’s got in spades, only lagging behind fellow Slavia teammates Jurásek and Pech in the relevant grouping of metrics, whereas Reinberk decidedly doesn’t (barely ever stepping up to recover balls up high).
New kid on the block
I personally think Pavel Juroška (b. 2001) is one of the best breakout candidates for this campaign — boasting the kind of powerful, driven, straightforward skillset that shall make Slovácko much stronger on a counter — but having owned Sparta defence already, he’s not a new find.
It’s also a shame that Martin Kudela (b. 2003) is off to Kroměříž and hasn’t stuck around, as his energetic nature and 1v1 confidence could be used.
All considering, I’m kind of forced to go with Abuchi Onuoha (b. 2004). At the start of pre-season, he was one of 3 internal candidates to address the centre back depth, and while Alden Šuvalija (b. 2002) had disappointed and is off again whereas Jaromír Srubek (b. 2000) isn’t too young anymore and was barely average in the second tier last season, Onuoha carries at least some promise. He split time between the reserves and U-19s in 2022/23, which he’s probably bound to do some more next season, but my consultants note there was something Simon Deli-esque on his ballsy play from the back. Risking, but constructive — he’s very different to Srubek.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Cicilia takes away a substantial deal of my worries for the centre forward deck, but I’m almost certain that when Svědík suggested that his preferred second tier transfer targets had been snapped up by Jablonec or Baník due to lack of pulling power, he had an Abdullahi Tanko type of an attacker in mind — a speedster to take advantage of Cicilia’s top notch hold-up play.
Sure, Juroška can do that for you as well, but he might be needed on the wing at some point, so I’d rather see another such option in the fold. Especially since Filip Vecheta remains to be very raw in front of the goal (even for his still-tender age) and Ondřej Mihálik is hardly good enough for a rotation option (at most that is) after posting the second worst percentile.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- First off, some updates: Vít Nemrava doesn’t feature on the A-team roster, effectively getting replaced by a younger academy graduate in Alexandr Urban (b. 2004) who doesn’t come with much hype attached. Bartoš and Kudela are gone as mentioned above. Regarding injuries, Stanislav Hofmann suffered a late injury/knock and may not start the opener, while Michal Kohút and Tomáš Břečka are longterm absences.
- My last season’s MVP Milan Petržela wasn’t really a candidate this time around, finally showing some signs of decline over a difficult yet certainly fulfilling year. He was no longer a premier chance creator (above average instead), and while he’s improved a tad in terms of cross-field passes, dangerous set pieces won or actions in box success rate, he was worryingly ineffective in cutting off passing lanes and sweeping up loose balls, which may have a lot to do with his 1983 birth year, dunno.
- Patrik Brandner still can’t (make his coaches) decide whether he’s more of a winger or a centre forward, mostly filling in as something inbetween the two, deployed below a striker, and doing precious little. He looks like Svědík’s go-to decoy runner to start some difficult games.
- While Jan Kalabiška and Reinberk are regressing big time on their own, their veteran colleagues from the heart of the defence are largely going as strong as ever. Michal Kadlec is a marvel in how often he gains the danger zone from open play — and how much versatility he showcases while doing so, often both crossing and passing — whereas Stanislav Hofmann helps via ball carrying mainly while focusing on clearing balls from the centre of the box where Nguyen typically never comes out.
- I’m very much looking for Matěj Valenta to bounce back as a creative box-to-box midfielder. He was somewhat effective in the box last term, but didn’t do enough in the build-up for what he’d shown at Dynamo before. Then again, I was comparing him to CDMs in 2021/22 where it was easier to excel as a passer than among CAMs in 2022/23. That said, all put together, his ball progression locker grades out as strong (8th).
Roster battle to follow
Slovácko posted the second highest xG share from positional attacks down the left side (60,2%) which is a credit to all of Kalabiška, Merchas Doski, Daniel Holzer or even Kim Seung-bin (and Marek Havlík, naturally) who are now vying for two spots. That said, Kalabiška didn’t have a good individual campaign at all per underlying numbers, once again making for an easy target 1v1 duel-wise (often getting bypassed or fouling) and a virtual passenger in terms of ball progression, since his legs are all but gone. Doski is, meanwhile, a very dynamic talent and would’ve arguably eaten a larger share of the pie had it not been for a few spring injuries.
On the contrary, Petr Reinberk patrolled the most toothless right-hand side out there (only 0,14 xGF generated per game from positional attacks) and would make for an equally straightforward candidate to concede much of his playing time to someone else… if there was someone at all, of course.
It’s generally a shame that Slovácko probably don’t have enough centre halves to commit to a back three, because Michal Kadlec would be the perfect wide centre back while Doski/Holzer and Sinyavskiy could easily make for better wingbacks than they are wingers (all below average per my model). Doski especially is tanked by his non-existent output in the final third (sporting a pathetic combination of 4,4 and 2,2 percentiles for high-danger shots and xA) and neither Sinyavskiy nor Holzer are much better.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Yeah, I’m not too high on Slovácko still being a Top 4 outfit, especially as they are supposed to be good for over a four-point regular-season lead on 5th Mladá Boleslav (and over 20% greater chance for UEFA competitions). But it’s hard to incorporate age-related decline in any predictive model, since one’s development is obviously not linear — not in teens; not in 30s.
What’s even more peculiar is the bump in points gained compared to last summer when the model pegged Slovácko down for a mere 43,5. Back then I was very low on their summer — departures of Jurečka and Cicilia hurt a lot and did indeed show on their persisent troubles to score — while now they are mostly staying the course in my books. So how come? I can’t quite explain it from the model’s standpoint, but they are arguably up for some luck-related compensation (plus-2,59 xG vs minus-6 goal difference).
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/2. They didn’t get any younger in 2022/23, no.
The prediction: Their top 2023/24 point getter won’t have Czech passport
The rationale: Here’s an astonishing stat for you: Slovácko’s most prolific players in 2022/23 were Petržela and Mihálik with 8 points. That’d walk them into the 5th place on both 2021/22 and 2020/21 Slovácko, making them sit side-by-side with 2017/18 leader Tomáš Zajíc (also 8) as the weakest leading Slovácko point getters in recent memory. Back in 2017/18, the Uherské Hradiště side almost got relegated, of course; surviving by 1 point.
Here’s another astonishing stat for you: despite having a rich history of luring fine foreign talent in, Slovácko were last led in points by a foreigner in 2006/07 — and that was Milan Ivana (10 points) who’s Slovak so he barely counts. Meanwhile, Benjamin Tetteh didn’t stick around long enough and Francis Koné topped out at 5 points (being famous for different skills), while the likes of Eldar Čivić never had a shot due to their defensive role.
This year could bring a significant change. Kim Seung-bin doesn’t strike me as a future 12+point star, but he’s got plenty of skill, and so do Sinyavskiy or Doski. As for the latter, a mere 0,64 touches in the attacking box are never going to cut it, but 630 minutes spent at fullback have a lot to do with that.
Finally, there’s the good ol’ Rigi now as well, of course! Cicilia has already been his team’s top dog in the Dutch second tier (12 points were enough to lead FC Eindhoven back in 2019/20) and he was in the thick of the same race in Lithuania, too (10 points for Sūduva in 2018), so there’s some pedigree to build on. At 28, he’s still in his peak and ready to deliver.
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