2023/24 team preview: FC Baník Ostrava
Are Baník Ostrava fans kidding themselves once again? The thought of a 2004 title-winning (assistant) coach delivering a long overdue Top 4 finish in the anniversary year seemed almost too good to be true, and it proved to be exactly that — with Pavel Vrba turning in a worse winning percentage (33,3%) than with Zlín later on (38,6%). Now, the thought of the club’s first big export to Premier League directing a quick, thorough revamp to bring Baník back to the European stage where he once helped to blank Mario Kempes… also seems rather too good to be true? Oh dear, here we go then!
Early returns of his regime have looked somewhat schizophrenic to me. Before he came on board in early October 2022, Luděk Mikloško was on record critizing the prolonged path Czech/Baník prospects are typically forced to take towards A-team’s dressing room, arguing the reserves are not a necessary prerequisite; then he proceeded to flock the senior squad with 9 new arrivals, three of them U-21 and two of them on loan. How’s that for charting a path to A-team for the likes of Martin Hrubý or Denis Látal?
It took Mikloško a week to axe Vrba; then he’s proved repeatedly unable to put his successor under adequate scrutiny. Granted, Mikloško was also on record saying he doesn’t like detached coaches, but “improving club/team culture” has surely got to stretch further than just (?) seeing Vrba’s body language during a few training sessions and deciding enough is enough.
There was the hiring of Mikloško’s former Sport Invest colleague Tanas Papadopulos, father of the recently-retired striker Michal, whose scouting knowledge should be a fantastic asset; but then there was the hiring of Mikloško’s old West Ham pal Danny Searle whose actual pedigree — going beyond his fancy British passport — really doesn’t jump off the page as much as the introductory article on the Baník website would want it to.
Look, I don’t want to be a grouch, but Baník fans have been guilty of wishful thinking (and overrating fairly ordinary development) in the past. Journalist Michal Kvasnica too appears to be convinced by the club’s direction — and I agree some vision is better than no vision, however stubborn — but I’m choosing to wait this out in spite of his fine track record.
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
It will hardly surprise you that all kinds of underlying numbers didn’t portray Baník Ostrava as a genuine relegation candidate by any stretch of imagination. At the season’s conclusion, this was a Top 5 team per xG share (56%), non-penalty xG share (55,6%), xG² share accounting for shots on target only (57,3%), shot share (52,8%)… you name it. They put in two of the four most dominant xG performances across the entire league for no gain at all; one that practically ended Vrba’s tenure (1:2 loss to České Budějovice despite +3,86 xG difference) and one that easily could’ve ended Pavel Hapal’s too (0:0 draw with Liberec despite +4,03 xG difference, taking his first winless run to seven games). This wasn’t normal and won’t repeat.
What went (especially) wrong
Dropping into the relegation group was certainly a humbling experience, even if Baník quickly dispersed any lingering doubts about their survival. I’m still not entirely sure how they got there, but the opposing goalkeepers turning in 11 top quality shifts (at least one goal saved above expected) to go with Baník custodians combining for 7 equally concerning shifts (five of them coming from belatedly dropped Jan Laštůvka) definitely didn’t help. As a result, Ostrava lagged behind their expected goalscoring output (per xG²) by a league-leading 8 goals, which would take their offence in front of 3rd Plzeň and over the 60-goal hump for only the 5th time in club history.
Seeing that the club turned one hundred in 2022, the appalling home form to the tune of 9 losses in front of their own crowd, frequently shouting “take off your jerseys” from the stands, was perhaps most disappointing. Across the three (semi)professional levels of our football pyramid, only 3rd-tier MFK Vítkovice suffered more home losses (13) than Baník. *quickly realizes Baník now play their games in Ostrava-Vítkovice district, sharing the stadium with MFK until 2020* Oh right. Yeah, that figures, I suppose.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Jiří Klíma (91st in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Jan Juroška (FB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Jiří Fleišman
The “still on board” brackets above are particularly important when it comes to Baník Ostrava. Jiří Klíma, for what it’s worth, was only the team’s 5th most valuable player — but everyone in front of him has buggered off. As a result, I’m not overly convinced by him, so I’m going to go off-board a little bit in this space, choosing to highlight Eneo Bitri in Klíma’s stead.
The Albanian centre back didn’t have an easy start, stepping right in the midst of Baník’s longest regular-season winless streak in four years, but he didn’t take all that much time to become a star mainstay all considering.
Bitri is a bit of a throwback type, but as long as Hapal prefers a three-at-the-back formation, he’s the perfect middle centre back for him. The 26-year-old just doesn’t have any self-preservation instinct, jumping into shots for fun (recalling his Slavia showtime gives me a second-hand brain damage), and while he’s not the strongest in all kinds of duels, Bitri has some top notch anticipation, concentration and peripheral vision to call upon. One thing I can’t quite explain, though: Bitri won just 7 of his 18 aerial duels inside his own box, whereas on attacking set pieces, he’s been a force to reckon with (climbing to six high-danger shots worth 0,2 xG or more). I can see how it’s a different discipline, but should it really fetch this much different results?
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
As recently as last summer, Ladislav Almási was a reported target of Celtic prompting Jakub to construct an alternate universe where the tall striker leaves and sets Baník back a whopping 3 points per average simulation.
I’m not sure I’d put nearly as many eggs in his basket 12 months on.
Make no mistake, Almási is still sporting a very respectable goal-per-game ratio (on average celebrating every 150 minutes) on the back of the highest inside-the-box xGF per 2022/23 game (0,63; well ahead of Chorý’s 0,56) and wins the largest share of aerial duels in/around the attacking penalty area.
But he’s got a lot to prove nonetheless. For starters, this is his age-25 season, so there’s not much time to spare for him to earn the desired big-ticket transfer. Doubling down on the sense of urgency, Almási alarmingly dropped out of the line-up due to injuries at three separate points of the last term. And finally, while Baník had relied on crosses far more often than your typical 2022/23 team — strategy tailored to both Almási and Muhamed Tijani — this may not be the case anymore with my consultants reporting a shift towards greater emphasis on ground possession over the pre-season. That almost certainly won’t suit Almási who completed the second least deep passes and isn’t very well versed in laying off the ball for others.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @homor1922, @KrenekHonza93, @Maassive1922, @JanWoska, @Boler76280423, @lichna90 and @smusil93 for guiding me through the motions of Baník’s pre-season
Squad turnover
As things stand, only Pardubice have kept less members of the most used XI over the summer (5), but it plays in Baník’s favour that two of their own — Laštůvka and Nemanja Kuzmanović — had already been phased out towards the end of the season. Still, losing all of Tijani, Kuzmanović, Srdjan Plavšić and Cadu means a massive deal for the team’s attacking corps looking to somehow absorb the outflow of 41,4% of all primary chance-creating actions these four had put together. With Jiří Fleišman and his extra 11% opening the season injured and likely looking at a reduced role, I’m not sure many fans and neutrals alike fully realize how much re-configuring exactly this side now needs to undergo. Only Zlín’s offence has taken a greater hit, though Baník are potentially replacing a much bigger portion of the lost value through their wheeling and dealing, of course.
Biggest upgrade
It’s hard to know for sure. Matej Madleňák could feasibly turn out to be one based on his 2022/23 offensive output, but Fortuna liga is not the same as FORTUNA:LIGA. Similarly, Abdullahi Tanko could easily prove to be the dynamic, sharp presence up top Baník had been missing since the Yira Sor departure, but FORTUNA:NÁRODNÍ LIGA is not nearly the same as FORTUNA:LIGA. As for Patrick Kpozo and his Moldovan/Swedish/UEFA background, or Samuel Grygar and his Primavera pedigree… do I really need to go there? There’s just no way of knowing/guessing with these guys.
All of the above is what leads me to make a very imperfect, very unfortunate comparison of Jakub Markovič and his much-improved dependability (no goals conceded bearing his signature) to Jan Laštůvka and his much-worsened volatility (10/37 goals more or less being his fault). The difference in 2022/23 sample size is too stark, but this isn’t the first season of Markovič looking like a top notch shot stopper and game stealer with Laštůvka not coming at all close to reaching the same echalon.
Biggest downgrade
Cadu may have been an above average winger in his own right, but he was no match for Srdjan Plavšić in this space. The Slavia loanee was greeted by quite some scepticism but quickly became an overwhelming fan favourite.
It’s easy to see why. Receiving a comparable amount of minutes to Kuzmanović, Cadu and Klíma, Plavšić led the way by an unbelievable distance in all of the following (the difference between him and the second best teammate in brackets): primary chance-creating actions (7), deep completed crosses (18!), successful open-play penalty area entries (31!!) and offensive duels won in final third (43!!!), deserving by far the highest average Deník Sport mark (6,3) at Baník to demonstrate his superior consistency, too.
Normalized per 90 minutes and stretched across the league field, Plavšić still scored the highest in expected assists and penalty area entries, being his usual valuable self in terms of set pieces won and cross-field passes, too. My model generally favours the high-risk(/action), high-reward type of a winger, but it’s never a bad thing when only Haraslín and Jovović land ahead of you in the overall percentile. Of course, I was talking Ewerton up in much the same way after 2021/22, but before he hits his stride again following the frustrating year, Plavšić looks like an irreplaceable stud.
As a bonus, let me stop briefly to talk about Nemanja Kuzmanović who took a notable step back in the spring, largely deservedly losing his starting spot, but he was no less a richly deserved Baník’s mid-season MVP and his full-season advanced stats don’t look too shabby either. In Plavšić, Cadu and Kuzmanović, Baník are losing two Top 10 wingers and a Top 3 attacking midfielder as far as expected assists go — immense collective loss at that.
Then again, Kuzmanović is a very cross-heavy CAM — ranking second-best in deep completed crosses but fourth-to-last in deep completed passes — so the ongoing stylistical shift most likely wouldn’t suit the veteran anyway.
New kid on the block
For the first time in ages, Baník Ostrava U-19s were in the thick of the title hunt, genuinely chasing the eventual champions of Sparta Praha. The club’s last title-winning U-19 crop is, meanwhile, rapidly approaching their 40th birthday, with Adam Varadi, Aleš Neuwirth and Petr Bolek now standing tall as the only recognizable faces of the 1984 class. That’s not especially inspiring, and so it looks a little worrying that none of the U-19 title chasers got a genuine first call to senior action this summer. Capable straight-line runner Denis Látal (b. 2004) is one to look out for eventually, however, while fellow contributor Patrik Měkota (b. 2004) had already seen FORTUNA:LIGA action in 2022/23. Still, since it was for one May game only, I’d suggest he qualifies for this section after spending the whole off-season with the A-team. He could really take advantage of the 3-4-3 formation (curiously deployed by the title-winning Baník U-19s twenty years ago!) as a RCB candidate with a nice blend of aerial ability and distribution skills. For someone whose family name literally translates as “soft dude”, he’s bulked up over the vacation, fighting off the real nominative determinism threat.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
I know you’re tired of hearing it from me — be sure that I am too — but as long as it appears to be a viable option, it’s a point worth driving home:
Filip Kaloč is not a holding midfielder. You’re limiting his box-to-box upside severely while harming your side’s overall ability to build from the back, control play and defend its own penalty box, so why the heck would you…?
For what it’s worth, only 3/7 of my consultants submitted a predicted opening-day starting line-up with Kaloč stationed at the base of midfield, but until I actually see it with my own eyes — forgive me — I don’t trust it. Therefore, with Dominik Holaň likely leaving on loan eventually and Grygar learning his senior craft on the fly, I’d prefer Baník to reach for a deep-lying CM type to potentially unleash both Kaloč and Matěj Šín.
This comes with an asterisk, though, because Ostrava obviously do have a guy of the mould around — it’s just that he only barely qualified for a pizza chart last season despite not missing any significant time through injury.
To be clear, Jiří Boula could very well be flattered by the small sample (10,24 starts), but wouldn’t you be curious to find out whether he’s for real? As an opponent, you don’t get to pass by him or take advantage of his poor concentration, and you need to be wary of his prompt vision — pretty much the opposite of Kaloč. In fact, while his height might be the main (superficial) reason why he’s ever been shoved to DM, Kaloč actually wasn’t any better in aerial duels inside his own half (13/25) than Boula (10/17).
Also, don’t underestimate 21-year-old Tomáš Rigo who was the most complex defensive midfielder in 2022/23 FNL per (flawed) Wyscout index.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- First off, some updates. You can, of course, leave the italics out of consideration when it comes to Madleňák, while Grygar’s arrival most probably means the lethargic Robert Mišković is coming out soon, too. The Croat was just as bad in the eyes of my model as the popular narrative surrounding him made it seem, so he’d plausibly be a good riddance. His only decent stuff occurred inside the attacking box, and I don’t have to tell you Mišković didn’t get in those areas nearly often enough to make a splash justifying his rich game time, touching the ball inside the box a mere 1,69 times per 90 mins (Kuzmanović was at 2,35).
- As for injuries, Fleišman is roughly halfway through his recovery from a muscle tear and neither Klíma nor Ladislav Takács factored into the pre-season. That’s not a big worry, though, because the squad is built to survive easily without all of them, as Mikloško et co. have focused on specific profiles (best example could be Tanko, a different kind of a CF) and not simply just throwing money at available people. The transfers were a nice mix of bets with an eye on future (Markovič, Grygar and Rigo who don’t need to be rushed anywhere) as well as present (Filip Kubala, Filip Blažek or Kpozo who’ve just entered their peak years).
- When it came to “need left to be addressed”, almost all of my consultants mentioned the right back position. I respectfully mark that down as a carry-over from the past, because the finally-healthy Jan Juroška had an under-the-radar splending campaign. I do agree it’s better to proceed with caution given his 1993 birth year and injury track record, but Baník would have a hard time to find an upgrade right now. And with caution they have proceeded, signing him on till 2024 only.
- The ensuing two-way battle at LCB will be fascinating. David Lischka is far more adept aerially, whereas Karel Pojezný easily beats him on the ground. The former scores way higher on defensive metrics concerning positioning and dynamism (success rate in loose ball duels, possession-adjusted interceptions), but there’s not a single more incisive CB runner with the ball at his feet than the latter. At the same time, they are virtual copies as far as forward passing goes, with Lischka threatening more as a finisher and Pojezný more as a creator. As I said: fascinating.
- One name I also considered for “chip on the shoulder” section: David Buchta. I don’t think this is necessarily a make-or-break season for the 24-year-old, but with the twin departure of Cadu and Plavšić, it comes pretty darn close to feeling like it, doesn’t it? Buchta graded out as above average in only three purely offensive metrics last year (he consistenly doesn’t do shit off the ball), now it’s suddenly eight of them, yet I’m sure I couldn’t find anyone hyping him all that much. He needs a big year.
- Daniel Tetour wasn’t exactly a sure thing to return for 2023/24, prolonging only once he gave some serious consideration to Polish Ekstraklasa, but he did sign on — specifically citing the new vision and a fresh, youthful spirit around the A-team as main reasons behind it. That’s nice, but let’s see if the up-and-comers don’t end up blocking his path back to the F:LIGA fields for the first time since November 2022.
Roster battle to follow
Both wide areas are rather stacked. That may no longer be the case on the right where it can’t be expected Gigli Ndefe settles for a (double?) backup role, but it will most certainly stay that way on the left. On that note, I’m not going to sit here and pretend I know much about Kpozo and Madleňák, but you don’t just abandon a second year of Champions League football (or, erm, Karviná summer camp) to quietly sit on the bench behind Eldar Šehić. That may still materialize, since the Baník hierarchy appears to be somewhat inexplicably fond of the Bosnian’s upside, but it will be a battle.
Besides, I would never rush to write off Jiří Fleišman. The veteran of 13 seasons shares the boat with Kuzmanović — in the sense that he’s also an avid crosser — but there’s more to appreciate on him still, even at this stage. Specifically, he was one of only three fullbacks — sharing the piedestal with Jiří Sláma and Benfica-bound David Jurásek of all people — to climb over the 80-percentile bar in both vertical and horizontal stretch passes.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
All the good mood for a projection of less points than last year (44,9)? Well, you see, the model is one year wiser now, and it quite understandably isn’t ready to jump on the bandwagon until it sees it up and running. Baník are routinely propped up for no great output whatsoever, so it’s hard to blame a model crunching past results for not getting carried away. In fact, the previous Top 4 projection was the getting carried away. This year’s 7th place sounds perfectly reasonable for a club undergoing tumultuous summer.
Besides, Baník’s shot at European glory virtually remains the same (27% vs 26%), it’s only that the championship group placement is suddenly the second most likely regular season outcome rather than first (by a mile).
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/2. Baník didn’t clinch 300th F:LIGA win on the road
The prediction: Filip Kubala will enjoy a multi-point Ostrava homecoming
The rationale: When unveiling him as a new arrival, Baník welcomed Filip Kubala “back home” which was the point many of us realized he’s actually born and bred in Ostrava, only to find out he isn’t (in other Silesian city Třinec instead) and has spent a sole season at the club as a 12-year-old.
Bummer.
Fortunately for us, Baník opens their Vítkovice schedule against Slovácko, Kubala’s actual footballing home where he properly broke through, which makes treating the game as a “homecoming” far more straightforward.
And boy is he going to enjoy it! In each of the last two seasons, Kubala posted exactly one multi-point performance, and he’s getting his obligatory 2023/24 one out of the way nice and early, bagging at least two points against the club that swapped this pizza chart for a measly €160k. Bummer.
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