2023/24 team preview: FC Viktoria Plzeň
Here’s one thing I didn’t realize until someone pointed it out on Twitter: Plzeň are in for their 14th — fourteenth — consecutive European campaign. It’s nothing compared to Sparta’s ridiculous 41-season string, of course, but still; when you consider Viktoria last sat out UEFA competitions in the same month Michael Jackson died or the world took note of Boko Haram… damn, we’re old. And hey, with the new shiny owner finally on board, one would expect there’s no stopping Plzeň in the short-term…
Anyone else feeling Viktoria are coming into this season somewhat weirdly low-profile all considering? This is broadly the same team that lifted the trophy 12 months ago, or one that put a combined five goals past Barcelona and Bayern goalkeepers this past autumn with a far more cautious manager in place, yet the hype for a repeated title challenge is virtually non-existent. Is that really what nine 2023 losses — a spring total that neatly equals the sum of all league defeats suffered by Plzeň during their sole back-to-back title-winning adventure (2014-16) — is meant to do to you?
Are we just going to ignore this was the very best offensive team of 2022/23 per non-penalty xGF, now taken over by 2014-15 title-winning manager who’s brought us the highest scoring version of Viktoria in modern history (together with 2010/11)? Alright, proceed as you wish — you’ve been warned.
Even the new owners haven’t quite received the attention I had expected, to be honest. For instance, there was no mainstream journalist digging deep into the FCVP GmbH consortium structures to find out more about the role of Philip Klöckl, CEO of Strykerlabs who specialize in data analysis for the sake of training optimalization to enhance performance and limit injuries.
There was hardly anyone posing the question on everyone’s lips: is the Christian Fuchs who’s landed on the Viktoria supervisory board also the Christian Fuchs, formerly of 2015/16 Leicester? He did freshly retire yknow.
There was little coverage of the fascinating Lafnitz-Hartberg axis Plzeň now appear to be inherently part of, potentially looking at “being run as a company” yet without any direct comparison/relation to Red Bull. Dodgy?
Maybe it’s because we weren’t supposed to know in the first place? The whole situation sure seems to be clouded by a secretive attire.
As per what Adolf Šádek himself is willing to concede, there are no waves coming budget-wise. Plzeň have traditionally sourced around half of their recent 300-350 mil. CZK budget from sponsors and (very friendly) city, scrambling to raise the rest of the money themselves. Now there may be less scrambling done, certainly not the familiar kind of “we gotta make Europe or else we’re screwed”. There’s hope Viktoria will now compete for the likes of Olatunji or Chytil, the very elite gracing the Czech fields with some sell-on potential — ie. the very likes Plzeň haven’t targeted for years.
With famed Czech talent-spotter Jan Říčka quietly filling the position of head scout, the club’s new youth sports centre now up and running, and the regional football academy HQ moving to Štruncové sady this fall, there’s every chance Plzeň are soon returning as this centrepiece of the Czech footballing landscape, leading the way on the pitch as well as off it.
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
I’m still not sure how they did it, but to remain in lockstep with Slavia and (fully focused) Sparta for the whole autumn despite having to juggle Champions League life with the title defence was a genuine surprise to me. Especially since the sole loss (to Sparta) was a fairly accurate reflection of their actual performance, with Viktoria losing just three xG battles all autumn long. Sure, they needed Jindřich Staněk to stand on his head in an historic fashion, but… that’s another thing that went particularly right for them, actually, since his 12-game streak of preventing at least some goals leads all 2022/23 FORTUNA:LIGA goalkeeping streaks upon the season’s conclusion, too, and still legitimately blows my mind. He was awesome…
What went (especially) wrong
… until he wasn’t. Not to pin too much blame on Staněk — he deserved a breather and wasn’t allowed to take it by his teammates (on average facing one extra shot and 25% increase in shots on target strength in the spring) — but his 4 ugly blunders since Round 24 did the team no favours at all.
Of course, who knows how we would talk about Viktoria now if Tomáš Chorý et co. weren’t as cursed as they were towards the end of 2022/23. Their finishing wasn’t necessarily bad, you see; just the goalkeepers facing them were bad boys. They were supposed to bag at least 17 goals per xG² in the last 10 rounds alone, only scoring 15 real ones. That doesn’t seem to be as big a discrepancy at first glance, but believe me it absolutely is. Slavia were over plus-four in the same period, while Plzeň specifically struggled to score against worse sides, combining for a pathetic two goals (out of 5,94 xG²) in three late spring games vs Mladá Boleslav, Baník Ostrava and Teplice (R25-30) that had effectively sent the team’s season into a tailspin.
On the whole, Plzeň were potentially good for 11,61 extra goals per post-shot xG value, by far the greatest injustice inflicted (Brno were at 9,85).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Lukáš Kalvach (13th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Jindřich Staněk (GK)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Lukáš Kalvach
The fact that Jindřich Staněk still comes out on top of all but one regular goalkeepers despite the botched spring is as huge a credit to his marvelous autumn worth of 6,03 prevented goals as it is to Staněk’s difference-making in other areas. The team has become life-dependent on his vocal, expansive presence inside the box (potentially in for a massive shock if Martin Jedlička of all people steps in his place one day), with Staněk providing a whopping 17 vital backstopping actions across 2022/23, while the fruits of his fabulous long kicks (9 chance, 4 goal contributions!) were no less sweet.
That being said, excuse me while I go to my FORTUNA:LIGA comfort food. He’s surprisingly never been my MVP in this space (first Adriel Ba Loua, then Staněk), so it’s long overdue to pay some well-deserved attention to Lukáš Kalvach, especially as it seems he’s increasingly taken for granted.
The midfield maestro was as instrumental to Plzeň’s unlikely title run as anyone else, elevating his game throughout the spring above all, and he’s actually improved on a bunch of metrics this past season — going from 67,5 overall percentile to a far more fitting 94,6 one. Sparta’s Kaan Kairinen (with his small sample) prevented Kalvach from topping the xG+xA charts, but the Viktoria stud narrowly edges him out in open-play penalty area entries, accurate through passes and accurate long diagonal balls forward.
At fresh 28, it looks like Kalvach may never make it abroad — at least not on the level we had all envisaged for him once he fully broke through five years ago — but his perennially balanced profile will make for a nice addition to FORTUNA:LIGA’s Pantheon at some point in the distant future.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
It’s rare for a 13-goal striker to nonetheless stand as one of the main culprits of a team’s collapse towards the end of the season. It’s perhaps even rarer for a 17-point contributor to not feature as part of 5/7 probable starting XIs on the opening day submitted by my dear consultants.
That’s where Tomáš Chorý is at. Part of the reason is his potentially impending transfer. Both Chorý and Pavel Bucha — another decent candidate for this section, by the way — have a handshake deal with the club that they’ll be allowed to leave should an adequate bid for their services materialize. While he was backed up by injury prone Jan Kliment, obscure René Dedič and wildly unproven Matej Trusa on my 2022/23 depth chart, now it’s the booming Rafiu Durosinmi along with a revitalized Matěj Vydra breathing down Chorý’s neck, suddenly making his departure digestible.
An equally big part of the reason, though, might be Chorý’s own quiet decline in some essential areas of his game. I won’t care about his finishing in this space (it’s volatile anyway — see Jean-David Beauguel of 2020-22), but the respective drops in back pass accuracy (from 93,3% to 71,4%) and deep completion rate (from 1,42 to 0,88) represent drops from CF’s piedestal too. He couldn’t quite control himself with offsides and fouls (roughly 30-pct drop), as well, while his continued aerial dominance doesn’t quite cut it compared to ‘Duro’ in particular, burying Chorý in a rather thick shadow.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to Michal, @19ws92, @belly11mb, @poskal77, @MartinNov5 and @ZdenekFrana for guiding me through the motions of Plzeň’s pre-season
Squad turnover
As things stand, Plzeň are… Plzeň. Rigid as ever — retaining league-leading 93,3% of all 2022/23 minutes despite cutting as many as 8 partakers— and refusing to play the youth as ever, with Durosinmi standing as the lone significant U-23 contributor (along with Filip Čihák and Adam Kronus).
Both is effectively bound to change, however.
As for minutes retained, the aforementioned Bucha and Chorý would potentially set Plzeň back a ton, ranking 17th and 37th league-wide in usage. Then there’s Staněk skipping a chunk of pre-season while waiting for a call from abroad — that’d be third most relied on F:LIGA player gone. Add in the serious injuries to Luděk Pernica and Milan Havel, two more members of the most used XI, costing them plausibly a whole autumn… and you’re suddenly left with 57,4% of minutes heading into the season. That’s, as of now, the second lowest ratio ahead of Pardubice only. It’s the worst-case scenario, obviously, but one era is coming to an end anyway.
As for the youth, Plzeň have strengthened by virtue of returning loanees staying on board, which means they now have Robin Hranáč and Pavel Šulc (two older U-23s) to hand out a portion of the pie to, along with some new faces heading the rejuvenated centre back depth I’ll get to eventually.
Biggest upgrade
It’s tough to come up with one, actually, even if I’m higher on Viktoria’s summer than most (or so I imagine). Ibrahim Traoré is a decent get who should provide much-needed insurance for Kalvach, especially once Modou N’Diaye is finally dispatched (there’s interest from Dukla, Zbrojovka or Poland, but the player himself is quite happy where he is). That said, Traoré looked wash in the spring (after an OK fall), unable to get up and down the pitch as effectively as he used to, making him a poor choice here.
Then there are the returning loanees who are either poised to backup veterans (Šulc-Kopic, Hranáč-Hejda) or play out of their ideal position (Cadu), and one successful trialist earning early love. That’s about it.
Just like last year, therefore, I’m going to highlight Filip Čihák who’s back under Miroslav Koubek’s wings after posting the best CB season per my model. For more detail why that happened to be the case, refer to my Hradec preview, while I issue a significant caveat on this pick as well — in the form of Čihák’s off-season shoulder injury leading to a long spell on the sidelines. After putting much faith in him last summer, then, Čihák may not deliver on the promise once more through no fault of his. Bummer.
Otherwise, this could be the most straightforward upgrade out there:
Biggest downgrade
Since Filip Kaša is all the same the only departing player who’s qualified for a pizza chart (as of now anyway), it’s actually kind of hard to come up with a considerable downgrade, too. There’s one intriguing developing storyline to follow, however, which somewhat fits in this section. That’d be Milan Havel’s injury to go with Koubek’s apparent lack of faith in Libor Holík, leading to Radim Řezník being seriously considered for a starter’s role at right back, or Plzeň potentially going with two wingers (Jan Sýkora, Cadu) as out-and-out fullbacks. While not necessarily horrible, this is not ideal.
Holík is a fascinating case to me personally in that I (softly) criticized the decision to buy him in the first place, then didn’t mind him too much throughout the fall, only to sour on him again as the season progressed. At this point, it’s clear Holík is only a little beyond offensive specialist, so even a makeshift fullback like Cadu (pretty good in pre-season, btw) should do.
The left side is a bit trickier (more on that later), but the whole downgrade part is very much attached to Havel’s frequent switching of sides anyway; definitely more than to his own quality which appears highly replaceable.
This sort of versatility is now gone, and with Pernica out injured, even the prospect of Václav Jemelka playing out wide — hence allowing Cadu to bomb forward in a presumably targeted assymetry — gets less likely. There are too many inter-connected decisions to make across the line, you see.
New kid on the block
Ha! There’s one! No, actually, there’s two! I know right…
You may recall I reached for a 24-year-old Modou N’Diaye in my first year doing this, appearing only a little less desperate last year with the Matej Trusa pick. This summer, I’m (relatively) spoilt for choice — and it’s good news for Plzeň especially that the choice is reserved for CB deck only.
In fact, these two youngsters would often line up next to each other in pre-season, with Sampson Dweh (b. 2001) filling the role of a “tough guy” who’s very willing to step out of the backline to intercept and has a penchant for a long ball (with differing success) per @MartinNov5. Building from the back under pressure sometimes appeared a little problematic to both him and his partner Jan Paluska (b. 2005), but all in all, early reviews are positive.
Dweh seemingly never lost a 1v1 duel throughout the summer, showcasing top notch aerial reach per @poskal77, while Paluska might struggle with physicality — understandably so for his age — but is more at the elegant end of the spectrum, showing more polished game-reading ability for a change.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Most of my consultants have been left disappointed by the sheer lack of interest in addressing the fullback depth, especially on the left through general preference of Jemelka at CB (I personally fancy him more as a LB).
For Plzeň, it’s a tough situation to navigate, no doubt. First of all, there are no viable Czech options for this particular role (unless you’re awfully high on Ondřej Zmrzlý, I guess). Second of all, foreign scouting may soon improve thanks to Říčka, but probably isn’t to be trusted as of yet. Finally, Plzeň overcame Sheriff with Sýkora at left back and returned to him in patches later, sometimes even while deploying a 3-at-the-back formation, so there’s a case to be made about him being a reasonable no. 1 LB option.
Again, I would never start him over Jemelka, but that’s not the only case against utilizing Sýkora deep down. Jhon Mosquera’s gradual decline well into his 30s might actually be the more convincing argument, with his xA rate only narrowly beating that of Šimon Falta (far removed from Sýkora who had the benefit of some set piece taking, to be fair) and his ball-carrying ability in terms of progression along with success rate of actions inside the attacking box completely falling off the cliff last year. Mosquera was only a 60-pct winger in 2022/23, finally warranting some second-guessing as a nailed-on starter he’s been for nearly all of his Plzeň stay.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- While there’s some buzz generating in the background for Erik Jirka the starter — perhaps having something to do with age curves — he obviously shouldn’t be near upsetting both Jan Kopic and Pavel Šulc to open 2023/24. I’ve talked Šulc up as Jablonec’s biggest downgrade, while Kopic certainly doesn’t seem to be ready to go away despite recently turning 33. He still delivers elite goods on three various fronts — winning plenty of balls and set pieces up high, cracking the penalty area — and was the only regular winger to land in 80+ percentile for both expected assists and high-danger shots along with Matěj Jurásek, his heir apparent. Generally, they shadow each other with Jirka neatly:
- Not many more notes on the depth chart, to be honest, maybe just to remind everyone that Lukáš Hejda is never liked by my model (his poor dynamism impeding him in more ways than one). Jemelka whose sample I split is, meanwhile, slightly preferred at FB (63,5 pct) over CB (51,7), and I have a particular issue with his aerial ability. Godawful last year already, Jemelka went one further this season (4th worst success).
- Matěj Vydra was a bit of a revelation in the hole for Bílek’s Plzeň, but I wouldn’t sleep on former Koubek’s favourite Adam Vlkanova swiftly jumping him over. Especially if Koubek goes with a (flatter) 4-3-3, Vlkanova will be a clear-cut favourite since a (flatter) midfield trio was where he excelled the most at Hradec as part of Koubek’s 3-5-2.
Roster battle to follow
Touching upon my last note on the depth chart, let’s talk about that central midfield pack. Should he stay on after all, I believe Pavel Bucha can easily return to his Guľa-inspired heights as a build-up facilitating attacking midfielder. This past season, meanwhile, I could barely justify seeing him as a candidate for the CAM model and he indeed scored very low on some important attacking metrics (like only warranting 35,9 percentile in xA). His greatest impact came awfully deep… and it wasn’t all that great either.
Speaking of getting deployed too deep: how freaking frustrating was it to see Roman Květ — flourishing as one of no. 10s just below the striker at Bohemians — languishing around as this extremely obvious misfit of a no. 6. I understand he has an imposing figure and all, but please just don’t…
It’s definitely not true Bucha’s tools to gain danger zone are “blunt” like the comparison table claims above; it’s just that Bílek systematically made them appear blunt. In both his seasons in charge, Bucha was only slightly above average in deep completed passes (his previous calling card), no longer elite in recovering balls up high and unable to perform many of his signature one-two’s. He had looked ordinary far too many times; a pity.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Ahead of their title defence, the model gave Plzeň only a 21% chance of repeating the amazing feat. Now it sours on them even further (11%) despite Viktoria not losing anyone who’d come even close to Beauguel and his difference-making qualities. It’s a peculiar development to say the least.
For what it’s worth, I personally have Plzeň crawling over Sparta in a fair lot of scenarios, and their 38% likelihood of wrapping up the regular season inside the Top 2 doesn’t look too shabby for a change. Funnily enough, their projected regular-season record (17-7-6) isn’t too far removed from their 2020/21 one (15-7-8) which saw them nearly miss out on Europe.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/2. Chorý did land inside the Top 10 in point production
The prediction: Koubek’s charge from a former stint tops Plzeň scoring charts
The rationale: Another production-related bold prediction for Plzeň, I can’t help it. That’s what the oldest manager around does to you — he takes you through the rabbit hole so you end up thinking about how cool it would be for Vít Beneš to arrive to cover for the injured Pernica/Čihák duo and enjoy a much-appreciated Kladno 2006/07 reunion with Koubek. You’re welcome.
Anyway, even sticking to those who are already on board, we are spoilt for choice. Vlkanova is one candidate, of course, but there’s one bigger favourite in Kopic who briefly overlapped with the coach at 2015/16 Plzeň (for four early rounds). To my mild surprise, Kopic has never been the most prolific Viktoria player — his 17-point haul from 2017/18 bumping into a Krmenčík-shaped wall — and he frankly won’t get many more opportunities.
There are also a couple of longshots, of course, like Čihák (2022/23 Hradec), Havel (2016/17 Bohemians), Hejda (2014/15 Plzeň) or Řezník who’s, to my knowledge, the only player that’s met him at two different stops (Plzeň and Ostrava). Turns out a full dozen of top flight seasons — going way back to his 2000/01 stint at Plzeň (see if you can spot a single familiar face, lol) — provides you with plenty of re-lived experiences. Who would’ve guessed, eh?
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