2023/24 team preview: FK Mladá Boleslav
It’s not too rare in the NHL, second and only other sports league I manage to devoid much of my free time to, for an understudy to take over from his master while he moves upstairs to deal with the big picture stuff instead. Or at least for a veteran coach to take on a management role like the Stanley Cup-winning Barry Trotz did just this summer. It’s much rarer in FORTUNA:LIGA, meanwhile, which is why it caught so many people by surprise when Pavel Hoftych made way for his assistant coach and former striker Marek Kulič. It’s going to be fascinating to follow his quest for Top 5, a publicly-stated goal Mladá Boleslav haven’t met ever since 2016/17…
Of course, if you hadn’t followed Mladá Boleslav too closely, you may have been surprised just by the very fact Marek Kulič is now coaching. This is Marek Kulič we are talking about, after all; the same guy who smoked throughout his whole playing career and readily admits in his Bez Frází confession (Czech equivalent of The Players’ Tribune) that he’d played football “merely for the thirst (for beer)” as late as at 19, effectively sabotaged Jiří Kotrba’s training sessions because he wasn’t the “practice type”, and childishly walked through entire games in response to a coach trying to change his habits for better, with this excerpt in particular reading very much like a dig at his current boss — and possibly/hopefully a hint at what’s coming our way now, with Kulič in charge instead…?
Of course, placing the burden of such an assignment on Kulič’s shoulders is highly symbolic, too. This is the same guy, after all, who’s helped to power the highest league finish at some of the most notably overachieving smaller clubs in history like Příbram (4th in 2000/01; he was 8+4 back then) and Mladá Boleslav itself (as high as 2nd in his only full season there — 2005/06 — when he posted 10+8). This is, after all, a striker whose feel for the game and intelligent movement on the pitch made him stand out above all else — a decent pre-condition for a successful managerial career, I’d argue.
In spite of his reputation of a bad boy, Marek Kulič is not to be underestimated, then, earning high marks while studying for his coaching licence per Jiří Fejgl of iSkaut. He was mad he wasn’t the first or even second choice for Hoftych’s successor — something the club itself bizarrely conceded in its own release — which is bound to provide extra motivation throughout the initial weeks and months. What comes after that… we’ll see.
For now, it’s clear installing Kulič as the head coach isn’t the only significant change at the club. Gone is František Mysliveček, our foremost talent spotter whose stint at Plzeň overlaps with its most successful period by far (2010-19); and gone is Vladimír Rosenberg, the first team manager. There’s also a talk of the stadium getting its fourth stand behind the goal.
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
Mladá Boleslav certainly weren’t easy to play against, making for a Top 5 outfit in all the high ball recovery types I track (positional/ground duels/aerials) and only landing behind Slavia and Sparta in terms of PPDA, which suggests a generally strong structure off the ball above anything else.
That’s the usual Pavel Hoftych football brand for you.
What was a bit of a nice departure for him: two-way dominance on set pieces. Mladá Boleslav were responsible for 66,7% of all shots generated in their games off of corner kicks (3rd largest portion league-wide), improving by nearly 10% over the year, and themselves finishing off a league-leading 40,1% of all corners (2,6 per game); a stunning rise from 26,6% (and 1,6)!
What went (especially) wrong
Mladá Boleslav didn’t end up in their joint-third lowest table position by a complete accident, with their positional attacking predictably taking a hit in the post-Karel Jarolím era. They only managed to finish off 21,9% of their positional attacks (3rd worst), on average needing to produce 1,88 attacks per one ball touch in the box (4th most). It’s also never a particularly good sign when you register the least clear shots and high-quality shots in general (only 0,08 xGF per shot going by StatsBomb data).
Then again, some of the poor results were decidedly beyond their control. It’s not quite their fault that the opposing goalkeepers put in 6 top notch shifts (to go with only two especially poor ones), collectively preventing the third most goals per xCG against them (5,41). It’s also probably not sustainable for FKMB to keep putting together the most missed chances (6,5) and the second most successful penalty area entries per 1 goal scored.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Tomáš Ladra (2nd in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Ondřej Karafiát (CB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Marek Matějovský
With Marek Matějovský turning up for his weakest half a season in recent years, I only really considered two candidates in this space. The first one is already a traditional front-runner, the second is quite the opposite — a winter signing turning everyone’s head right upon his arrival.
As per usual, Tomáš Ladra didn’t earn much mainstream love (maybe aside from the trio of Man of the Match honours from Deník Sport) and his 13 in/direct goal contributions really don’t jump off the page, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t up there with the elite. After all, Matějovský was at 13, too, and Vasil Kušej — for all his hype — delivered exactly five of them. Not great.
I observed above that Mladá Boleslav had a real trouble finishing off attacks, and that also goes for situations where the ball was already on someone’s boot deep inside the attacking half, in a dangerous situation, but then he overcooked it or simply didn’t choose to pull the trigger. Tomáš Ladra was let down a record 21 times like this; Matějovský a further 12!
I stubbornly/controversially count those times, because they are still chance creations to me, but that’s only a small part of my model. And Ladra — now primarily a centre forward per his most common deployment — was nonetheless the league leader in xA and deep completions. He remained as engaged as ever, recovering plenty of balls via duels, thus finding himself at the very start of a league-high 1,81 attacks a game (positional or counter).
Now onto every neutral’s favourite: Vasil Kušej. He’s been a force to reckon with since Day 1, especially while pouncing on a loose ball and accelerating with it (a ridiculous 2,53 accelerations per 90; runner-up Jan Matoušek was at 1,80!). Image of him running at the last defender who’s busy watching his life flash in front of his own eyes must be forever etched in my mind.
The great thing about Kušej is that while he obviously makes things happen on his own (basically a Ladra in all the respects I mentioned above), it’s sometimes enough when he’s just there, lurking around ever-so-threateningly. Kušej alone contributed 6,3 xG+xA inside his 12,52 full starts, which constitutes a substantial 33,2% of all xG produced by FKMB with him around, but what’s even more telling: with Kušej on the pitch, Hoftych’s team averaged 1,51 xGF per 90 mins; once he stepped away, it was 0,64 xGF!
That’s almost a full one-goal swing in one team’s favour caused by one player. It’s a dangerously small sample, mind (Kušej wasn’t on the pitch for an equivalent of 3,48 starts only), but it was really no coincidence that in all but two individual games, there was a considerable discrepancy in chance-creating rate between the periods spent with and without Kušej in the fold.
There’s something to be said about the opposing team focusing too much on his powerful dribbling and perhaps freeing others, or Kušej’s daring yet broken plays leading indirectly to a chance within a few seconds. Both has happened a lot, though Boleslav’s cautious tactics towards the end of games (when Kušej’s juice typically ran out, requiring a sub) also contribute.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
In 2019/20, Daniel Mareček was still a third-tier player on Sparta/Slovácko reserves, acting as a deep operator on the right side of central midfield. In 3 years, he would score four goals towards the end of the fall — knocking out Bohemians, then still his de facto home, and Teplice in the process — as this newfound FORTUNA:LIGA second striker(ish) material. Or is he really?
That’s the peculiar thing, because Mareček might still mostly be living off one hot three-game stretch and little else. He wouldn’t be the first nor last, but seeing he was Boleslav’s top scorer in pre-season (4 goals) with Marek Kulič trying his hardest to squeeze Mareček into his 4-4-2/4-2-4 formation as one of the centre/wide forwards, this vast internal hype isn’t going away.
Therefore, Mareček shall be hard pressed to repeat what he’s done — or, to put it more accurately, live up to a mostly fabricated hype — since there was a little above average on his play apart from two barely-vital metrics:
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @stepan_1902 for guiding me through the motions of Mladá Boleslav’s pre-season
Squad turnover
It’s been one special summer for Mladá Boleslav. Despite bringing a total of 9 new faces on board, they are somehow retaining 83,5% of last season’s minutes (4th). This is bound to change, with at least Petr Mikulec, Samuel Dancák and Antonín Vaníček looking to be on the way out, but that means only an extra 19,48 starts lost — and still a significant 77,8% mins kept.
Of course, the stark contrast with past seasons makes this all the more special. Two years ago, I was here talking about Boleslav only holding onto 40,2% of their 2020/21 playing time allocation (league lowest ratio) while losing a whopping seven members of the most used XI in the process. Last summer, they were better off but still shedding almost 40% of all usage.
Now it’s just David Pech really costing them, and he’s been away since early 2023.
Biggest upgrade
Cue the running jokes. Last summer, Martin Polaček was supposed to be the one finally shoving Jan Šeda aside — he wound up with 6 starts. A year before that, some felt Pavel Halouska, previously a very good second-tier custodian, could outperform the veteran — the promise lasted exactly 4 rounds. In 2020, there was the rookie Petr Mikulec handed the keys to open the season as a starter — duly dropped in winter, now pushed away again. In 2019/20, another youngster Jan Stejskal rivalled Šeda — losing 13:22 in appearances. And don’t you dare asking about how Luboš Kamenár’s opening 2 rounds as Mladá Boleslav’s designated starter for 2018/19 went.
It’s a real life’s version of princes lining up to slay the dragon, failing one by one. Matouš Trmal is supposed to be the clever Honza to finally succeed.
Boleslav getting the former Slovácko starlet on a permanent basis instantly felt like a coup — and it still very much feels that way. Sure, Trmal hadn’t seen much action in Portugal, but he certainly didn’t let anyone down, saving about five goals above expected in all competitions (2 135 mins). Besides, he has a reputation of a very steady, calm goalkeeper under pressure, and still carries some sell-on potential as a 1998-born keeper.
That said, Jan Šeda deserves much of your respect as a pure shot stopper. It’s mostly his doing that FKMB benefitted from the 3rd most prevented goals by their custodians in 2022/23, but consistency was an issue.
Biggest downgrade
It’s not an immediate downgrade in the case of Mladá Boleslav, but rather a gradual one over the course of the entire 2022/23. It started off with David Pech, continued through Michal Tomič or Ubong Ekpai, and now that all these three are gone, there’s Dominik Kostka or Andrej Kadlec to pick up the glove. Colour me unconvinced. Without Pech already, the average xGF generated from positional attacks down the right side diminished greatly (going from 0,19 to 0,13 between autumn and spring) — resulting in FKMB’s right channel posing the second least threat over the whole campaign.
I can’t see this changing as long as Kostka is the presumed starter at that position. He’s, in my eyes, a borderline second-tier talent; a limited contributor who can score reasonably high on defensive metrics (but also leave a massive hole behind his back through perenially suspect positioning) yet extremely low on offensive ones, which is certainly not an optimal pre-condition for an attacking-minded outfit. Then again, at least he won’t be asked to be a wingback (like he would’ve been under Hoftych).
New kid on the block
Last year I highlighted Matyáš Coňk (b. 2002) in this space, so naturally he proceeded to spend the whole season buried in the reserves. This year, I’m — also naturally — reaching for another younger centre back, Tomáš Král (b. 2004), who’s additionally shown some much-appreciated versatility to fill in as a holding midfielder, basically replacing Denis Donát like-for-like.
Much like Coňk, Král isn’t breaking out anytime soon on a team that historically favours seasoned veterans at the back and still has David Šimek on board, but he’s looked decent in duels and — in spite of some kinks (rash decisions) — makes for a better candidate than his peer Matyáš Vojta (b. 2004) who didn’t take part in the A-team’s summer preparation camp and has seen the squad flocked with three brand new attacking options.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Since Mladá Boleslav have addressed virtually all positions and roles — GK, RB, LB (at least by keeping Martin Suchomel on loan), CB, CM, W (at least technically in Ladislav Kodad, even though he may play up top rather), CF — it’s hard to say there’s something left to to be addressed per se, but I certainly do have some strong reservations towards those individual fixes.
I’ve been over Kostka already and I don’t know Benson Sakala well, though coming over as a fairly ordinary centre back to be played almost exclusively as a holding midfielder has got some strong Denis Donát vibes — and he was the most useless CDM in my model’s eyes last year, struggling at both ends. Anyway, this comparison is inherently unfair, so I’d rather stop here.
As for the centre forward deck, a younger version of Milan Škoda (Abdulla Yusuf Helal) is here, and so is the previously missing poacher type (Matěj Pulkrab) so the only question mark is their respective form. No problem.
Ladislav Kodad is another Teplice-based reclamation project, though I have a strong feeling there’s far less to reclaim on this one than there was on Patrik Žitný who enjoyed some promising cameos in Matějovský’s place.
Finally, I arrive to the centre back department where I’m once again left unconvinced. It’s good Kulič doesn’t want 3 of them starting to begin with, but who knows if he doesn’t see Vojtěch Kubista as a feasible candidate (he absolutely should not) and which mood Florent Poulolo arrives in on any given day. The latter does carry an intriguing dynamic/passing toolkit, but he has a history of being an easy target aerially (improved lately) and not controlling his clearances as much as he could (not improved ever).
I’m not sure if Marek Suchý — a bottom-five CB per model in “steep decline” career stage — shouldn’t have a better cover. In fact, I’m sure he should…
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Speaking of CBs, David Šimek may still be pursued by Pardubice (and the like), but I personally wouldn’t recommend to Mladá Boleslav to get rid of him easily, as he’s the only capable, proven defensive specialist of a centre half currently left on board — adding some consistent threat in the attacking penalty area as a welcome bonus. Ondřej Karafiát is firmly underrated at this point of his career, but his strengths shall always lie on the ball and rather far away from duels, so this is a nice complement:
- It’s going to be fascinating to see where Lukáš Mašek, still waiting for his true breakout at 19 (yet approaching 3rd anniversary of his debut), gets mostly deployed. It could be off the left wing (a role he’s barely filled to date), since the second striker(ish) role in a 4-4-2 is very much Kušej’s to lose — and you’re likely not ousting the short fella anytime soon. As for Mašek himself, he’s always offered a combative presence in the box, but that’s also the only tangible quality I can say I’ve witnessed. It’s probably not enough to make him a starting XI fixture; not now, not ever.
- I do wonder if this isn’t the season where Marek Matějovský’s age finally dawns on us, nudging him closer to delayed retirement. He’s actually improved on expected assists considerably (mostly courtesy of set pieces) and still embodies the second best, most cutting-edge CAM passer at a minimum, but he was no longer a big factor in carrying the ball upfield, perhaps slowly losing his noted weapons one by one…?
- I know it’s going to sound crazy following his three-point opener, but don’t sleep on Lamin Jawo as a capable contributor at both wing or centre forward and potential point-producing breakout star of 2023/24. He’s owed some luck big time (amassing a combined 19,74 expected points over his entire Czech top flight career yet only banking 14 real points, especially underwhelming in the goalscoring department) and looked like a formidable recovery machine up top — one quality that has been historically much appreciated at Boleslav (see the MVP section).
Roster battle to follow
I feel like Martin Suchomel enjoyed a very good rookie campaign without anyone in particular noticing — Sparta fans not excluding — which makes him a decent (mainstream) breakout candidate in my eyes, too. As a versatile fullback frequently asked to switch sides, he looks to have his top flight future tied to the left where he’s going to fight with Jakub Fulnek, possibly the most hurt victim of the formation change abandoning the wingback role. Fulnek was already less of a factor in the spring but enjoyed a largely stellar autumn, easily his very best top flight period to date.
It’s definitely advisable to be mindful of the huge sample size discrepancy, but to see all the four areas of your game fut inside the Top 16 in your age-20 campaign is never a small feat to be scoffed at. Suchomel possesses an enticing mix of mature physique, awareness and decision-making, standing tall as one of only three regular fullbacks to land in 80+ percentile for both cutbacks and stretch passes — suggesting high-end vision and technique to execute. Then again, Fulnek wasn’t too far away from clearing the same (double) bar, getting stuck at 75+ percentile over a far longer run.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Mladá Boleslav are aided greatly by the one extra UEFA slot, seeing their chances at the first European adventure since 2019 shoot up from a measly 14% to a promising 35% despite not taking any steps forward last season. In fact, FKMB’s regular-season record (9-10-11) was right in line with our 2022/23 forecast (11-8-11), so there was hardly a great need for adjustment.
At the same time, Mladá Boleslav are once again not projected to reach 45 points; something they incredibly haven’t done inside 30 rounds since 2016/17 when Lukáš Hůlka was still an U-21 prospect and Ondřej Kúdela was still primarily a defensive midfielder approaching his 30th birthday…
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/2. FKMB only let 3 goalkeepers to have a go, not 4.
The prediction: Mladá Boleslav will have a bottom-five attack per goals scored
The rationale: Back in my active sport-playing days — be it football, floorball or ice hockey — we would always joke that “čím víc střela, tím víc gól”; an ironic suggestion that the more power you put behind your shot, the more your eventual goal counts against the scoreline. It was obviously a conscious nonsense, but I find it to be a bit of an equivalent of football managers and experts alike sometimes pretending that the more centre forwards you chuck onto the field, the more likely you’re to score, as well.
Mladá Boleslav could be exactly that sort of an outfit this year. Marek Kulič has an abundance of options at his disposal and he isn’t our top flight’s 7th most prolific striker since the turn of the century for nothing, is he…?
Give me Jawo on the right, Ladra/Kušej on the left, Pulkrab+Yusuf upfront… and a bottom-five offence per goals scored, please! There were six worse sides following the regular season last term, so it wasn’t all that far, and Mladá Boleslav’s attack was actually bad enough for the bottom 5 as recently as in 2017/18 when they already had Jan Chramosta and Nikolay Komlichenko on board (and were 2 years removed from being the very best).
It’s a volatile business, you see. *gestures frantically at the Round 1 result*
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