2023/24 team preview: FK Teplice
In any other year of my FORTUNA:LIGA coverage, it would seem plain ridiculous to open a team preview series with FK Teplice. This summer, however, it feels fitting. No longer a club stuck in a rut, scrambling for every penny yet somehow unwilling to commit to youth, Teplice now have a fresh-looking identity and a fresh-faced squad full of recognizable promise led by a measured father figure in Zdenko Frťala. Honestly, there’s every chance he’ll star in the next John Lewis commercial; such is the feel-good nature of this Teplice summer.
What a difference 12 months can make, indeed. A year ago, Jiří Jarošík was seen as a possible next big thing in the coaching business, mostly pitied for being shackled to a distinctly second-tier squad while trying to build from the back and play actual football with it. Now he’s a few weeks removed from taking “dirty Russian money”, leaving some more bad taste in his defenders’ mouths — myself included — after talking shit about his former players on a Sparta fan podcast like a dad trying to fit in with the cool kids.
It’s easy to feel betrayed.
A year ago, I was poking fun at Teplice for keeping themselves busy with a bizarre wave of kit auctions throughout the entire summer rather than introducing new players who’d actually wear the kit. Now they boldly jump the Puma ship to partner with Macron, famous for highly personalized jersey designs rather than the increasingly more common uniform ones, blessing us with a stylish model full of cute little details like the shards — a nod towards the city’s glass-making tradition — covering the sleeves.
The new logo, meanwhile, stays faithful to both the current trends of simplification and the old Teplitzer FK 03 emblem — though the latter bit appears to be a tad controversial. Complete with new high-quality merch, it’s now tempting to ask: could FK Teplice suddenly lead the way in marketing and presentation?
It’s easy to feel confused.
The kit design is specifically dedicated to the iconic Stínadla, an oversized stadium serving as our only White Elephant exactly 50 years on from its construction, and so it’s fitting that the two die-hard fan groups — Sektor 15, the ultras with a history of feeling unwanted in the stands by the club, and Fanklub FKT — have finally found a way to come together and cheer from one (South) stand after a decade or so of not seeing eye-to-eye. That should make the 18k-seater feel much less empty and kind of warmer to visitors, too, much like new foodtrucks addressing the longstanding catering issue.
It’s easy to be genuinely glad for FK Teplice as a neutral. And for a regular fan, meanwhile, it might frankly be easier to forget there’s still the good ol’ money issue. Some minor incoming partners — like, erm, this “premium dog and cat food” producer — presumably won’t do much to offset the fact FKT have yet to strike out a new ownership deal, with the only rumoured development since last year being that it could be a Czech entity after all.
But hey, let’s not go spoiling the party for now…
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
The threat of direct relegation virtually deflected with four games to spare? Cool. Two meaningless games to close out the season? How refreshing. It wasn’t fully deserved, mind: since the start of April, Teplice had the highest PDO value around (sum of team’s shooting and save percentage, which is mostly down to luck), their R29-31 experience fetched them a total of 5 points despite getting destroyed on both the shot (-31) and xG clock (-4,47), and there was no chance in the hell they’d continue to average two points picked up per road trip if you were to account for more than 5 away games. But hey, campaigns are ultimately made of multiple small samples, and this one — nearly a whole 1/3 of the season, by the way — was still a legitimately good one, symbolized by a Top 6 offence per xGF over the last 10 rounds.
What went (especially) wrong
It was like Jarošík saw the concept of set pieces and went “nah, not for me, thank you”. According to StatsBomb data, their attacking set pieces were a virtual black hole, generating a measly 0,13 xG per game and comfortably sitting bottom, while their defending of dead ball situations made for nothing to write home about either. Per my notes, nearly 1/3 of all goalscoring chances allowed by Teplice (29%) could be tracked to a set piece, with only Pardubice dangerously approaching the 100-chance mark as well.
Oh, and speaking of black holes: there were an incredible eleven occasions on which the left-side channel, mostly patrolled by the early success story Jakub Urbanec, didn’t see any positive xG action. It was the only channel in the league — right, central or left; no matter which — to go into double digits as far as zero-threat occurrences go; even the distinctly bad České Budějovice left-hand clique of Skovajsa, Potočný et co. only made it to 9 instances. As a result, Teplice controlled a mere 26,9% of the xG flow on that particular side; league’s worst mark by almost seven percentage points.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Abdallah Gning (9th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Abdallah Gning (CF)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Jakub Hora II (small sample!)
No longer the flavour of the week poised for a big move, Abdallah Gning was nevertheless head and shoulders above any other Teplice player.
While not exactly selfish (his above average xA rate is purely down to open play action, and some of his well-documented frustration was indeed down to having no one to play off of), Gning has proved to be a singular talent in how much danger he generates purely on his own. Need to win an aerial, absorb the pressure or at worst get fouled for an interesting set piece? He’s right up there with the elite. Need to navigate tight spaces, hold up the ball, lay it off? Check, check, check. A league-leading 16 chance-creating actions were down to his incisive dribbling, with two more such initiatives indirectly resulting in a goal scored by someone else. A no-less remarkable 8 times, he would dance into a promising situation and finish by himself.
Of course, towards the end of the season, the hype around Gning faded, but I’d suggest that had more to do with the generally elevated game of most teammates around him than anything else. Yes, he did seem to be more vulnerable in duels, and he absolutely was moody — but the latter is part of his charm. Remember how he cheated for the opponent’s back pass on multiple occasions vs Mladá Boleslav in R29, frustrating both Mikulec and Kubista? That was equal parts lazy and brilliant. Much like Michal Ševčík, Gning is an explosive runner, a sleeping giant of a pressing machine utilizing his first three quick steps to poke at the ball and run away with it.
Ultimately, despite cooling off visibly, Gning was involved in 21 goals scored of 39 he witnessed on the pitch, which constitutes the 4th biggest portion (53,8%) of all regular centre forwards. Take him out of the equation at any point of the season and you’re looking at a relegation play-off team.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Consecutive knee injuries had set his promising development, monitored closely by Slavia, back a ton in 2020/21. Then, he’s missed a decent chunk of each season that followed. There’s every chance Teplice wouldn’t have needed to labour through the humiliating relegation play-off in 2021/22 had Jan Knapík not been forced to skip the last seven games (0-2-3 record following the split). There’s also every chance Jarošík doesn’t get fired with a healthy Knapík in the fold at Jablonec (the 1:4 blow-out loss AKA straw that broke the camel’s back). It seems like the “veteran” of 4 full seasons is a real needle-mover, yet with the centre back depth chart looking its most stacked since at least 2017/18, he may not actually be one come 2023/24.
It’s a peculiar situation to find yourself in, especially as your 74 top flight starts suddenly make you the 4th most seasoned outfield player after Lukáš Mareček (80), Robert Jukl (84) and Daniel Trubač (131) over the last 5 years!
Now, Knapík doesn’t necessarily need to be a leader from the back; an even younger Štěpán Chaloupek wears the heart on his sleeve and is the single biggest reason why Teplice goalkeepers faced the 6th lowest number of clear shots per game, while Nemanja Mićević now has a compatriot next to him and generally takes good care of his side. Nonetheless, Knapík will inevitably get compared to the veteran presence of the departed Tomáš Vondrášek whose shoes he’s, in part, going to fill. Luckily for Teplice as well as himself, Knapík appears to be far more dependable positioning-wise and more solid in ground duels around his own box, so there’s a fair likelihood no one spares a thought for Vondrášek in a year’s time.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @SeveroCzech, @Krystof_B and @JohnHenry_1984 for guiding me through the motions of Teplice’s pre-season
It’s been a very different one. While Jarošík placed an arguably irrational emphasis on the playing side of things, Frťala is far more eager to work without the ball and that should ideally show in Teplice hitting the ground (literally) running. Another contributing factor to that: despite contrary expectations of some fans, Frťala isn’t spending the summer working on his old 4-2-3-1 routine that earned Hradec Králové the promotion in 2020/21, instead doubling down on his predecessor’s preferred 3-4-1-2.
Squad turnover
Teplice are getting younger — and not by a little — which shows positively on the wage bill (with the rumoured albatross contracts of Vondrášek and Tomáš Kučera coming off board), but also negatively on experience retained, both in terms of 2022/23 alone — where Kučera, Alois Hyčka and Matěj Hybš all received upward of 1900 minutes of playing time — and in terms of FORTUNA:LIGA appearances where the locker room is losing a stunning 847 top flight starts divided between the 3 Musketeers (plus 189 worth of Hybš). That’s not to be underestimated, especially combined with the surprising decision to release Filip Žák and his 12 goal contributions.
Biggest upgrade
As far as familiar faces go, Teplice haven’t really upgraded per se, though hopes are particularly high for Matěj Radosta to be an in-house upgrade on Hyčka. He’s a very engaged, enthusiastic wide player who doesn’t shy away from a duel and impressed in patches as both left and right wing(back).
As far as unfamiliar faces go, it’s rather hard to imagine Nemanja Krsmanović, 20-year-old Partizan academy graduate, being anything but an upgrade on Urbanec (for more context, refer to the “What went wrong” section). For what it’s worth, he’s provided somewhat cautious, but two-way presence down the left-hand side throughout pre-season, something neither Urbanec nor Hybš did in their individual runs as LWB starters.
Biggest downgrade
Who else but the Stínadla’s very own Andrea Pirlo? Tomáš Kučera was less of a factor as the season progressed, not only focusing more on his music career (I’m guessing) but also finding it hard to sell his niche in a less possession-oriented Frťala side. Under Jarošík, he had put together easily his strongest run of play since I started covering FORTUNA:LIGA (R7-12), shooting up the charts as a premier deep-lying distributor and defender.
Don’t hold your breath for Mareček to replace Kučera’s attacking upside, with his once-fine passing game completely vanishing this year, but Filip Havelka could actually be a decent heir apparent. I don’t have advanced data for FNL, but he was even a bigger weapon in progressive passing, through balls and open-play penalty area cracking in 2021/22 than Kučera.
New kid on the block
There are a few, which is kind of a big deal because Teplice U-19s were the only truly unfortunate casualty of the drastic top flight trimming in 2017/18. Instead of the usual pair, a whole quartet of teams got relegated five years ago, with only Teplice coming close to saving their asses — ever so close, in fact, missing out on České Budějovice by one agonizing point despite sporting a vastly superior goal difference (positive one acutally!).
They haven’t been back since, and the forthcoming classes are said to be pretty weak by comparison, so it’s very much mandatory for the players born in 2001-04 to catch on, otherwise top flight football may appear to be unsustainable once again. It’s difficult enough for the club to be unable to pay anything upwards of 100k CZK monthly, leading to Michal Bílek taking a reported hometown discount upon leaving cash-strapped Opava (!); taking a dramatic dip in youth development could equal an instant killer.
Luckily, this year’s new blood looks more than promising. Michal Trnovec (b. 2004) has impressed in pre-season and may be ready for an A-team call-up if the new Serbian reinforcement limps out of the gate. Jonáš Bzura (b. 2005) had stuck around the A-team longer than initially expected, too. But the highest upside arguably belongs to Yehor Tsykalo (b. 2001), listed at Transfermarkt as a holding midfielder but realistically vying for the hotly-contested RCB spot. The Ukrainian was ever-present for Opava this spring and made for a massive part of the second-tier’s 3rd best defence per xGA. Tsykalo most definitely doesn’t start on the opening day, but he could be a popular fall back option if things go south given his balanced, modern profile built on strong game-reading ability and decent distribution skills.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
I perenially feel Daniel Trubač is given less credit than he deserves, fighting off both neutrals (who typically find his point production to be his sticking point) and my own model (that is most concerned with his ball progression qualities), and I still hold his 2021-23 period was reasonably strong for the company he’s enjoyed at Teplice. On the point production matter, after all, he was involved in eight extra goals beyond those he got credited for by public stats (2+5). That’s fine. Besides, Trubač’s calling card — attacking the box via give-and-gos, little accelerations of build-up — is highly dependent on teammates and they’ve done him no favours.
The company is an issue for me this year, as well, but not so much around Trubač (on the pitch) rather than behind him (off the pitch, waiting for a chance). The good thing is Trubač almost never misses time — ranking 24th and 74th in usage league-wide in the past two seasons — but it’s not a great look to be backed up by a frantically converted wingback in Urbanec (only this pre-season’s novelty) and 20-year-old rookie Marek Beránek who’s more of a box-to-box (some fans see him more as a CDM material, in fact) and does need to bulk up considerably to make most of his dynamic presence.
I must say the thought of Gning dropping deeper to fill in for Trubač is kind of tantalizing, but I’m pretty sure it’d be considered too risky by Frťala. So if Teplice were to address one thing the rest of the way (not too likely for July weeks, perhaps later), they should zero down on a seasoned CAM backup.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- What briefly looked like a fairytale return on the horizon for Michael Lüftner had quickly soured. A distant memory of someone actually fetching a substantial amount of money to the club (roughly €500k back in 2017) simply wasn’t enough to cover for the fact Lüftner had proved unable to shed some extra weight and thus put his dodgy knee at ease.
- It’s no secret I’m a big fan of Štěpán Chaloupek (b. 2003), so I was really glad to see my model mostly concurring he’s an extremely useful defender. To patrol a back three from the middle at age 19/20 is no small task and he’s handled it splendidly, scoring particularly high on clearances from centre of the box, possession-adjusted interceptions, loose ball duel success rate and focus (ie. low tendency to switch off on defence ) — pretty much all vital indicators of the job description. Mićević was, meanwhile, a nice find who only needs to cut out reckless “sledge” tackles big time, sliding on his ass far too often for most liking.
- It’s fair to say my assumption Jakub Křišťan would be the biggest upgrade before the last season didn’t go down particularly well. He’s still young enough to make waves (21), but it doesn’t seem especially likely given an underwhelming autumn followed by swift return to FNL and a no-less underwhelming pre-season pushing him down on the chart.
- My model has a longstanding beef with Robert Jukl and it’s easy to see why. Despite registering a new career high in points (all of the 7 for one goal and six assists banked in close game states, by the way!), the former Hradec Králové starlet under Frťala’s guidance remains to be a largely one-dimensional holding midfielder focused on defence:
Roster battle to follow
It’s frankly hard to think of a single more baffling decision than to stick with a 2022/23 goalkeeping tandem that has, collectively, set you back a whopping 16 goals conceded per my personal notes. Filip Mucha is close to an above average shot stopper, pulling off 14 high-danger saves and faring well in high-danger situations all told (42,4% save percentage; ranked 8th), but everywhere else he actually represents a downgrade on Tomáš Grigar who’s now put together three erratic, unpredictable seasons in a row.
I understand the nostalgia or locker room presence factors keeping Grigar around, but moving on from Mucha who has zero upside further away from goal-line (and even there, four goals conceded from outside the box are not a great look positioning-wise) really shouldn’t be all that difficult.
Look, maybe Luděk Němeček runs away with the job and everything turns out just fine. Twenty-four is no age for a goalkeeper and he did stun Jablonec on his only start under Frťala in the season finale. But these two…
Additionally, anyone up for a potential battle for the two striker roles upfront? With Gning taking his spring form into the pre-season, perhaps even his spot is open for competition — and competition there is alright!
Daniel Fila, for my money, remains to be one of the most complex centre forwards to come through Czech youth ranks in recent years and should be a nailed-on starter if healthy, but Mohamed Yasser — excelling for Teplice reserves last term in the 3rd tier (over a point-per-game pace) — along with Tadeáš Vachoušek — lukewarm yet predictable Slavia target after shocking them with an early strike in February — are no shabby rivals indeed.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
How far they’ve come… well, not really, but having been pegged by our model for 22,3 points and inevitable direct relegation last year, Teplice now have 38% less of a chance to go down, being the most likely to finish 14th. That said, Teplice were still sitting bottom ahead of post-season in about as many simulations as in those that had them down for 11th-8th combined, so it’s not like Zdenko Frťala et co. can sit back and relax. Their 9% chance of landing in the calm waters of the middle group is only up by 6% from 2022.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/2. Teplice did bag more goals than they auctioned kits
The prediction: Teplice will set a Stínadla attendance record of this century
The rationale: The most recent Teplice sell-out is an all-time classic, a suitable throwback to a completely different era when 18 500 fans came out on a warm August 1999 afternoon to see as many as five former, current or future Czech internationals don the yellow jersey, and most importantly witness a certain Michal Bílek scoring the sole hat trick (!) of his estemeed playing career against the club of his heart (!!) in his very last season of professional football (!!!); something he not only celebrated (as I said, a different era!), but actually did so by getting piggybacked by his teammate.
Ooohhh!
I mean, with all due respect to the current crop, a scrappy 1:1 draw against a favourite wouldn’t make for an adequate replacement of this pure gold.
Hence, let’s cheer for the highest attendance since 2000 only. That still gives us a challenging bar to clear — the 16 180 people who showed up to watch the fabulously named Eugene Salami participate on a 1:0 win against Plzeň, the reigning champions — and a goal I’m certain Sparta or Slavia can now help us meet. Come on, folks, there’s going to be FOODTRUCKS. Do travel!
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