2023/24 team preview: SK Dynamo České Budějovice
Last year was a weird experience which felt like a nightmare that’s going to fly past. This year, Dynamo are what they were — a confused mess — only that it’s now become a new standard with fans jumping the ship en masse. To that end, appointing a senior journalist-turned-rookie football official to your board could feel like a refreshing step in the right direction, but it sure seems more like a decoy — an easy scapegoat once things inevitably turn sour — designed to buy controversial owner Vladimír Koubek time.
I hate to be cynical, but it’s nigh impossible not to be. Just consider how the whole Jan Podroužek appointment went down. First, the former editor-in-chief of Deník Sport’s football section confirmed on a podcast he’s taking on the role of the sporting director, with “basically only the official announcement missing”. Then, Koubek issued a pushback in his own interview, suggesting Podroužek won’t have as senior a role as he made it sound to be. Finally, no official announcement (of which role exactly he’s coming to fill) has ever arrived, while Podroužek proceeded to title himself “GSM” — a first general sporting manager since Jozef Chovanec at Sparta, if I’m not wrong — which can only mean one thing: he’s even more senior? Hah.
Delusion seems to be the way to go about it. Calling the 10th place a worst-case scenario while speaking about 2023/24 ambition is one expression of it. Wanting to make the club “financially self-sufficient within 2-3 years”, like Podroužek boldly stated on the podcast, while your owner is literally on trial for owing money to his predecessors and in the thick of yet another high-profile fight with Martin Kuba, governor of South Bohemia (this time over land plots at the Dynamo training centre), is but another expression of it. Fishing for obscure Icelandic talent or an Ukrainian U-21 international could also easily be portrayed as one— or at the very least a relative luxury at a point when you barely employ 15 healthy senior squad members.
I’ll always make sure to appreciate any sort of a vision, and Podroužek does bring up all kinds of pertinent topics, but it all the same feels like someone is jumping the gun a little bit. After all, this is a super thin bonafide relegation candidate with next to no interest in its players (and one awful pre-season under its belt, only beating 5th-tier Strakonice), so only targeting younger players with re-sell potential seems unreasonably picky.
Maybe there’s a new partner entering the club soon to lift some of the weight off Koubek’s shoulders (it doesn’t sound like an imminent prospect, though) and facilitate Dynamo’s survival. But maybe we’ll see České Budějovice joining — or swapping places with — neighbouring Táborsko of FORTUNA:NÁRODNÍ LIGA, led by ex-Dynamo boss Martin Vozábal and another familiar faces like captain Pavel Novák or veteran Petr Javorek, seeing the number of their shareholders and partners rise at a crazy rate.
Or maybe football in České Budějovice soon takes a backseat to handball, basketball, volleyball and the like despite dealing from a position of an undisputed regional hegemon not too long ago. It’d be an eternal shame…
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
Look, I know I’ve been banging this drum forever, but you can’t expect to fool the Lady Luck along with the whole Pantheon of xG Gods this thoroughly and consistently over the entire season to then escape any sort of reconciliation (like in the first round at Slovácko, as a matter of fact).
It took Dynamo an unbelievable 20 rounds to outshoot an opponent (Bohemians); by that time they’d already accrued 5 wins and 3 draws. Each (but one) of their autumn victories made for an outrageous outlier on its own; let alone all together. They faced a sum of 72,51 xGA but only 58,69 xCG (taking in account shots on target only, their power and placement), benefitting from shooting luck by far the most of all FORTUNA:LIGA sides. They boasted the very worst offence per xGF in front of their own fans (average of 1,08 per home stand), yet also the 6th best point-per-game pace. They were responsible for a shocking 24,4% of all positional xG generated down the middle; down by as much as 12,4% compared to 2nd worst outfit!
There was some good stuff sprinkled inbetween Dynamo did have some control over — like never surrendering a lead for an eventual loss (12 cases) and forcing the second most high turnovers for a chance/goal created — but the bottom line is plain and simple: this was the single luckiest survival since advanced data became available to us — and not by a small margin.
What went (especially) wrong
Well… everything, kind of. But also nothing significant if that makes sense?
I mean, how wrong could it really have gone when they didn’t even take part in the relegation group? Have I just fucked up and basically made the whole “what went right” section about what went wrong, or is it just utterly impossible to distinguish between what’s right and wrong with Dynamo?
Normally, I’d rush to stress that their non-penalty xGA of 2,22 was by nearly half a goal worse than the second worst one, but why would I even bother when there were about 5 worse sides per actual goals conceded nevertheless? I’d also like to say averaging almost 10 deep completed passes allowed per game can’t continue for them to avoid the drop next time, but then why would I, since this was already a persistent issue for Horejš’s teams. Even the staggering counter-attacking xG differential of 0,52 : 10,05 surely would’ve led to a worse actual goal differential (4:14) over a normal season. This simply wasn’t normal — and can’t ever be considered as such. Ever. We should just treat 2022/23 Dynamo like a scientific experiment.
Ultimately, I’d like to tell you this Dynamo side hasn’t robbed me of much of my faith in underlying numbers, but I can’t say I wouldn’t be lying if I did.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Lukáš Havel (33rd in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Jakub Hora (CDM)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Dávid Šípoš
This was a fairly straightforward MVP title defence from Jakub Hora. His Pirlo-esque deep-lying passing is no longer a surprise; rather a trademark. Hora was one of only two defensive midfielders to chart more than one accurate long diagonal per game (Filip Souček being the other one; the rest didn’t go over 0,8 per 90) and the sole defensive midfielder to go over one accurate through ball, as well (runner-up David Houska was at 0,87 per 90). As a result, only Oscar Dorley helped his team to crack the attacking penalty area from open play at a higher rate — and he was my Slavia MVP!
Of course, much like Houska and Oscar, Jakub Hora isn’t your typical CDM. There are bound to be defence-related struggles for a guy who was once relied upon as the go-to secondary goalscorer by Teplice, but he actually cleared more balls from the centre of his own penalty box than the more defence-oriented Patrik Čavoš and did extremely well while climbing to aerial duels inside his defensive half (20/35) for a shorter player (176 cm).
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
If there’s a next time at all, we’ll talk about Patrik Hellebrand as an attacking midfielder entering the peak years of his career (roughly going up to 28) after he turns 25 in May. He won’t get cut any more slack by then.
By now, it’s still difficult to peg him down as either CAM or CDM. He gets bypassed far too often for a holding midfielder (though he’s improved with regards to backtracking), yet he does most his valuable stuff deeper down the pitch (like spinning away from duels; progressing play without losing the ball) and doesn’t deliver nearly enough of prime offensive output in the final third for an attacking midfielder (awful xA, high-danger shot rates).
He’s got to decide what he is right about now. It was nice to see him lean on his dangerous mid/long-range shot more often in 2022/23 (his shot rate up by 0,6 shots per game compared to previous campaign), but there ought to be more to come for him to get recognition beyond his elegant twisting.
Inside the club’s off-season
Squad turnover
Dynamo are one of only four FORTUNA:LIGA sides to lose at least a quartet of their most used XI members, and they’ve been hit the most when it comes to primary chance-creation. Benjamin Čolić (23) and Nicolas Penner (12) somehow fit inside the team’s Top 3 in this respect, while Roman Potočný (6) and Branislav Sluka (5) also contributed towards Dynamo shedding an astonishing 46,7% of their 2022/23 creative power. To give you a rough idea: the remaining cast was only (primarily) responsible for 65 chances created across the season; Teplice’s second lowest total reads 110.
On the whole, over 70% of retained minutes is not too bad (though Jakub Grič is likely getting moved eventually, having spent the whole summer training individually, and that’d take České Budějovice to 69%), but I would argue Dynamo are losing way too much valuable Czech top flight experience (generally) between the likes of Michal Škoda, Čolić, Čavoš, Potočný — or even Lukáš Skovajsa and Sluka (as far as the Slovak fields go).
Biggest upgrade
Uh. I guess it must be Zdeněk Ondrášek, especially as we just dealt with the brutal outflow of top tier experience, but I won’t blame you if you snigger. There’s just nowhere else to go and Ondrášek is an important addition as a local lad coming to pass on his vast experience from Norway or Poland. He grew into an icon/noted fan favourite anywhere he’s gone and players with a Zlatan jersey at home don’t come around too often; especially not here.
He also appears to be the right fit as far profiling goes; with his fox-in-the-box acumen. Then again, Zajíc appeared to have the same potential last summer and he turned in the fourth lowest inside-the-box xG league-wide. Much of it was on (scarce) support, sure, but his poor finishing (generating 2,3 xG, but only 1,09 xGS from shots on target only) definitely wasn’t. Zajíc needs to do better in his sophomore year, which makes his summer-long injury struggles all the more concerning — and Ondrášek all the more vital.
Biggest downgrade
I, for one, cannot comprehend how no top flight club has made the move for Matej Mršić (as of now only allowed to practice with second-tier Táborsko with one eye on another F:LIGA assignment per Vozábal), and the same goes for Benjamin Čolić who remained a decent offensive specialist throughout 2022/23. His contract was probably too rich for Dynamo, but there were clubs like Jablonec or Mladá Boleslav remaking their right back position who also could’ve taken a look. He likely improves your set piece delivery, he definitely helps you crack the penalty area from open play, and he always carries a varied toolkit around with him as far as combination play goes — scoring high on both stretch passes and cutbacks. Snap him up!
New kid on the block
There’s never a shortage of (decent) kids at Dynamo. The regional academy operating out of Budějovice by the Czech Football Association is effectively their extended arm, full of Dynamo youth players gaining valuable extra experience in a region depleted of true rivals, and so it’s no wonder their U-15s made Slavia genuinely run for their money in the category’s top flight, losing four games over the course of the season (of 26) and beating the champions as part of their dominant spring run of 11 defeat-less rounds.
There’s also no shortage of (decent?!) kids at Dynamo A-team right now.
Podroužek says it’s by design, with the club now focusing on embedding the youth; I’d argue it’s more out of necessity, with the club now focusing on not committing too much money to veterans… potayto/potahto, eh?
Anyway, Vojtěch Hora (b. 2004) is clearly the closest to starting after wrapping up the past U-19 top flight campaign with the captain’s armband and an impressive 12 tallies in 13 starts since mid-October. He’s so far been deployed much deeper on the senior level, but that was in patches; if Dynamo plan to truly commit to youth, here’s a goalscorer for them.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
I totally understand why the Dynamo dressing room opted to hand the armband to Lukáš Havel on the sentimental level — he’s a local lad through and through, after all, and grandson to an even greater local hero Adolf Havel whose youth coaching had contributed to the development of the high-profile likes of Karel Poborský, Jiří Němec or Roman Lengyel. The decision also comes at the lowest point of Martin Králik’s Dynamo career — an underwhelming summer following up on a mediocre top flight season — so it’s kind of fitting to strip him off now rather than any other time.
However, it all the same shouldn’t be hard to recognize the centre back department as one truly major weakness, along with the whole wing/fullback department. So yeah… simply put, defence *requires* bolstering. And not just by the one arrival Podroužek advertizes; by 2-3.
We could start by doubting the credentials of Vincent Trummer (Austrian second tier at best), but especially his backups who are either unproven youth players or… Pavel Osmančík (judging by the opener)? Bizarre.
Yet I’m quite curiously most interested in the two aforementioned CB options who are supposed to carry this team and… may not be able to.
Králik still looks like a very good rudimentary defender in my model’s eyes, but is arguably relied on too heavily (eg. in the distribution department), while Havel took a wild step back — roughly 30 percentile points worth — with (desperate) shot blocking and intercepting as sole elite attributes.
Considering my reservations towards the two most senior starters, what am I supposed to say about the rest? Martin Sladký, who seemed poised to at least make up the CB depth (as part of a back three anyway), broke his leg and is months away from returning. Ondřej Čoudek (only turning 19 in late October) has been fast-tracked at a neck-breaking pace, I’m afraid, not quite ready to eat a substantial portion of top flight minutes right now. The same could potentially be the case of Thomas Jungbauer, a Dominican (!) who has won an U-18 title with SPAL in Italy but is only about to turn adult. Plus, there’s little evidence to suggest David Broukal is of top tier quality:
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Not much to deal with since this is just a chart without the “depth” part. I quite enjoyed the Bohemians-esque 3-4-2-1 formation in the spring, with Marcel Čermák and Hellebrand pushed further up as a result of Čavoš serving as the holding midfielder, but he’s now gone and Jan Suchan stepping in for him would make the whole quartet substantially more attacking-minded which most certainly won’t fly here. At the same time, you’d want to find space for both Adediran and Ondrášek up top, I suppose, so there might always be 1-2 benched top-flight level players at C(A)M or CF, with about 3-4 second-tier level players starting elsewhere out of sheer desperation. That’s some sub-optimal roster-building...
- Anyway, if Čermák develops further as I firmly expect him to, Dynamo could have a gem at their hands. He’s an adept passer who looks to combine in tight spaces, adding a nice new layer to Hora’s Hollywood passes, and giving Hellebrand someone to play off of further up.
- I don’t know him too well, but it’s worth pointing out Suchan used to be a highly-rated Příbram talent at around 2014 (heck, that’s almost 10 years!) and recently got called “the best F:NL player of 2022/23” by iSkaut’s Jiří Fejgl. He was certainly one per combined xG+xA (17,95 which led the runner-up by more than two expected points) and might deliver big time both on the shot and key pass front per Wyscout index.
- I’ve touched upon the unconvincing left (wing)back deck, but that’s not to say I’m sold on Lukáš Čmelík as an (unrivalled) right wingback. I’m decidedly not, since even purely offensively, he wasn’t anything special:
Roster battle to follow
Martin Janáček was voted the best Dynamo player of 2022/23 (mostly a result of him being a homegrown talent surely), but there’s a case to be made for Dávid Šípoš as the designated starter regardless of Janáček’s current injury struggles. The reigning MVP put in some of the most recognizable, highlight-reel shifts (Baník players could tell you a thing or two about that), but the Slovak was the more consistent shot stopper whose prevented goals output ultimately beats that of Janáček by over 30 pct points, with the team leaning more on his distribution and damage control.
Then again, it’s far more difficult to not have your prevented goals rate tanked by the awful Dynamo defence across 21 starts than the 11 Šípoš got. Both goalkeepers have a penchant for seeming volatile and unpredictable, conceding soft goals from afar, dropping a hot potato of a high ball etc., so it’s largely a wash in my eyes and some heavy rotation is to be continued. Colin Andrew (b. 2004) may also have something to say about that…
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Right from the get go, it needs to be pointed out Jakub’s model isn’t built on xG or anything of the sort. It crunches and predicts results, nothing else. Thus, Dynamo stay where they were… like, literally. They are once again projected to earn 29,2 points inside 30 rounds, once again being a virtual lock to land in the relegation group (only a tad higher this time, going from 80% to 85%), and once again given a substantial 79% chance of survival.
Most Dynamo fans would take this and freaking run away with it.
Vladimír Koubek apparently wouldn’t. He doesn’t want to hear about some 15% likelihood of finishing “no worse than 10th” — his publicly stated goal.
But the reality is, even such likelihood feels a tad rich right now. Karviná and Zlín must’ve settled for 5%, Teplice for 10%. I don’t see České Budějovice to be any more ready to challenge for Top 10 than these teams.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/2. Their 3 opening goals weren’t scored by debutants.
The prediction: Matouš Nikl earns an U-21 NT call-up while playing for dad
The rationale: Czech football isn’t quite flush with heartwarming dad-son stories; not to my limited knowledge anyway. Antonín Kinský jr. did bump into his famous dad, but that was only on the U-18 national team level. Similarly, Martin Frýdek sr. got to coach his two high-profile sons at Sparta, but that was also only on the U-17 level. David Kozel is now being hyped as a foremost Dukla Praha prospect, but he was never making it to A-team soon enough, before his father Luboš decided it was time to move on. The two Martin Hašek’s nowadays make for more of a comedy duo, I’m afraid. And don’t even get me started on the Radoslav-Radek Látal tandem…
That’s why it’s pretty much mandatory to cheer for Matouš Nikl — who had been developing under his father’s wings at Dobříš (and under his father’s coaching partner’s wings at Příbram U-19!) already — to cut it at Dynamo.
Not only cut it, but take the league by storm, in fact. His father Marek never got to represent his country on the youth level (going straight to the senior team in 1999) and neither has Matouš in spite of his Slavia pedigree.
That’s got to change, but a mere call-up (without a start) will do for now.
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