2023/24 team preview: SK Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc went all in, that much is clear. Sacrificing greater earnings from the inevitable Mojmír Chytil transfer, the Haná club actually strengthened the squad mid-season with one eye on UEFA football. It turned out to be just a casual flirt, not a serious thing, but the pressure is now on Václav Jílek to deliver. If you were to put his last three seasons in charge of Sigma next to each other, his side earned 43, 44 and 45 points in games he actually oversaw. That’s a lovely straight flush, but the respective point gains never represented even a 45% winning percentage. Some more substantial progress is required at this stage.
Chytil is gone but the spirit isn’t. This is still a team and club with Top 4 ambition all told. A five-year absence from the European stage isn’t anything of particular worry for a side of this stature — just ask Baník Ostrava with their Top 4 budget how they are doing — but another season of “yeah, well, we tried our best” isn’t quite going to cut it for Václav Jílek. Not when he himself must be well aware this is plausibly the last year spent with his highly valued and sought after right-hand, Jiří Saňák, by his side. Not when his Chytil replacement is a former Sigma hero from 2019/20 (8 hits in 12 starts) and a Top 5 FORTUNA:LIGA sniper the following season.
There’s a case to be made about Sigma actually appearing stronger now than 12 months ago. Jiří Sláma was a revelation at left (wing) back; local lad Martin Pospíšil is here with his Rosický-esque kicking technique and fabled ‘Sigma DNA’ on top of it; Jan Fortelný has stayed on, and so has Matúš Macík; Antonín Růsek still has at least 6 weeks to go before getting cleared for contact, but a missed summer at least prevented him from earning the well-deserved transfer; 2022/23 arrivals Ola Dele and Jan Vodháněl have got their first summer camp under their belt, taking notable steps forward.
At the same time, Sigma reserves are bound to be stronger in their sophomore FORTUNA:NÁRODNÍ LIGA season, too. The second-tier outfit is now coached by former Olomouc utility man Tomáš Janotka, who’s got “future top flight manager” written all over him. He’s replacing club icon Augustin Chromý who’s won titles with just about any Sigma side apart from A-team in what can be described as a generational (both gentlemen are almost exactly 20 years apart) as well as stylistical transformation, with fans looking forward to a noticeably more attractive football brand. Janotka had thus far led Sigma U-19, last owning the second most potent attack and third best overall record (on par with 2nd/4th) in the category’s top flight.
Ambition is dripping from each Olomouc tier. It’s time to fulfill it wholly.
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
Jílek’s Sigma pride themselves on high-intensity, ever-so-annoying brand of football, and while I did notice a bit of a shift towards more economical drainage of energy in the second half of the season (smart move), all kinds of stats do them justice. For one, their uber-active approach proved especially effective in the early goings, with Sigma boasting the second best chance differential inside the first 15 minutes (+22) and second lowest average xGA inside first halves (0,46) — bizarrely turned into the largest discrepancy between expected and real goal differential (Sigma were over 10 goals worse off before half-time!). For two, Olomouc averaged the most counterpressures per game (34,89), being particularly active at the top left.
As for another proud calling card of Jílek’s Sigma, they actually managed to be even sturdier while defending corner kicks, taking their already-impressive rate of only conceding a shot following every fourth corner (2nd) to allowing a league-leading 21,6% corner kicks to be finished off.
What went (especially) wrong
Olomouc will most certainly aim to improve considerably on their home record, having bagged a pathetic 1,18 points per game in front of their own crowd (14th). Presence in the attacking box was also an issue, illustrated by below-average 5,5 deep completed crosses (despite employing two of the best crossers in the game, Juraj Chvátal and Sláma) and the third lowest rate of passes completed inside the box per Statsbomb data, resulting in many of their shots flying from outside the box and carrying low xG value.
Oh yeah, and goalkeeping. Anytime you decide to “switch it up” between the sticks at five different points of one half-season, you’ve got a problem — and if I recall correctly, only one of those changes was forced by injury. The rest was simply forced by performance, with Sigma goalkeepers collectively allowing five spring goals above expected. Macík posted back-to-back shockers, Jakub Trefil got amazingly lit up for five mid/long-range goals across as many rounds, and even Tadeáš Stoppen didn’t have a clear conscience on one goal in particular (vs Baník Ostrava). At one point, it felt like Sigma coaches would be answering questions about dubious goalkeeping after every week-end for the rest of their lifetimes — as a reflex.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Ondřej Zmrzlý (30th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Jakub Pokorný (CB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Jiří Sláma
The so-called With or Without You (WOWY) metric measuring one’s importance to their team doesn’t really work in the context of a 22-player sport (as opposed to ice hockey), but there are clearly visible exceptions. And Sigma with/without Antonín Růsek could be toured as a case study. Without him, Olomouc made 3 less deep completions per game, while their average xGF dropped from 1,65 to a worrying 1,33 the rest of the way. Five losses in the closing 11 rounds without Růsek equalled the five losses in preceding 24 rounds with him in the fold. It was no coincidence at all.
Sure, his finishing was a major let down, but hitting the woodwork five times in a season is a stuff of legend, meaning Růsek was good for nearly seven extra goals per my simple luck index (combination of woodwork and goalkeepers’ resistance put next to the attacker’s expected goals scored).
More importantly, Růsek broke out as a premier facilitator in crowded areas, masterfully connecting dots and pulling strings for Jílek to improve on his career-high xA rate by 67% and navigate tight spaces for 10 chances. After a good-but-not-great Year 1 at Sigma, full of shifting from left to right and searching for the ultimate purpose in his new home, the former Brno starlet made the right half-space his backyard in 2022/23 and flourished.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
On 12 May, Sigma announced a flurry of new deals. Their character ranged from “unusual” (indefinite contracts for Jílek & Saňák) through “perfectly reasonable” (2-3 years for Sláma, Chvátal, Jiří Spáčil and Pavel Zifčák; a cautious one year for Navrátil) all the way to “pretty baffling”. The last category was represented by a 2-year extension for under-fire custodian Macík, another good candidate for this section, and three extra years for captain Radim Breite who’ll be 34 by the time Round 4 rolls around.
To be fair, the deal isn’t as potentially damning a commitment as it looks, with Breite admitting both sides have an oral agreement to break loose once the veteran’s health deteriorates etc. At the same time, I appreciate the former Liberec skipper brings all kinds of intangibles to the table. But still… this is Radim Breite under Václav Jílek we are talking about, very much a Haná remake of the Stanislav Tecl-Jindřich Trpišovský bromance. The boisterous leader no longer justifies the 28th biggest portion of action league-wide, not at all, failing to reach at least mediocre status in the lens of my CDM model (35,1 percentile), let alone the CAM one (12,1 pct).
It’s not like his combative nature wouldn’t have value (he won 70,6% of offensive duels undergone at the top of the attacking box — 12/17 — leading all his rivals by at least 9 percentage points) or that he would be a terrible ball progressor (he’s simply the protypical box-to-box midfielder with limited output very low and very high on the pitch), but he just cannot be a nailed-on starter anymore seeing the current depth in central midfield.
Especially not with Denis Ventúra, a deep-lying midfielder, besides him.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @krokrocancan, @MichalNeveril, @VaclavOutrata, @gregor_vaclav and Tomáš for guiding me through the motions of Sigma’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Losing Chytil is a big deal, of course. For instance, his 56 chance-creating actions constitute 15,6% of all such actions produced by Sigma players — not exactly a little for one individual. On top of it, he’s a bloody workhorse, good for 9th busiest footballer in the Czech top flight in 2022/23. That’s bound to rub off on his former teammates, but cutting ties with depth players like Florent Poulolo, David Vaněček and Lukáš Greššák does relatively little harm, adding up to 3rd most retained mins across F:LIGA.
Biggest upgrade
Olomouc have focused on bolstering/compensating depth-wise while getting younger in the process, effectively swapping Poulolo for František Matys, Vaněček for Yunusa Muritala (pending signature) and Chytil for Juliš. They were also super glad to wrap up the complicated process of adding Vojtěch Křišťál who could’ve, should’ve become a Sigma player in winter already when Chvátal was still nursing his serious shoulder injury.
In Křišťál, Jílek welcomes a trusted, out-and-out right back — contrasting starkly with untrusted youngsters (Vojtěch Hadaš, Filip Slavíček) or desperately converted wingers (Jan Navrátil, Zifčák) — which is an upgrade in and of itself. Additionally, we are talking about a tall fullback (187 cm) boasting top notch aerial duel involvement and success rate in 2022/23 FNL (68,9% success from 3,95 aerials per game), making for a potential fine RCB cover in a three-at-the-back formation that’s always an option for Jílek.
Biggest downgrade
No suspense here: it’s gotta be Mojmír Chytil. What does require some breath-holding, though, is his pizza chart, walking him into a vastly underwhelming 48,6 percentile among centre forwards. How so?
Quite simply, Chytil took a huge step back in terms of value added to finish — where he tagged goalkeepers for 8,22 expected goals scored (to go with 6,51 expected goals for) last term, suggesting accurate and precise finishing, he was now in the red — but otherwise mostly stayed course after his 86,8 pct breakout year. With what we know about finishing (that it’s highly volatile), this is a relatively small worry for me. Chytil was still a foul-drawing, duel-munching monster, a fabulous big-game player (Olomouc barely created a thing without him involved versus Ostrava in R1, Slovácko in R18/R33, Plzeň in R22 or Slavia R34), and a multi-layered contributor who’s elite at pummeling through as well as playing with his back to goal.
My bigger worry concerns how progressively scarred the guy gets — largely through his own doing. What Chytil tends to do is to sort of wait for an opponent to tie him up, then using his huge body to shake loose or draw a foul, instead of just running away from him in the first place. It’s like he inherently wastes time when he doesn’t want or need to. It’s like he’s a masochist. Sure, his participation in all kinds of duels fetched a difference-making total of 22 chances or goals, but majority of those came in the first part of the season before Chytil more or less exhausted himself from carrying the team on his back — both in literally and figuratively — too often.
New kid on the block
What used to be Sigma’s trade secret has become a point of vocal criticism. Talent nurturing appears problematic and perhaps complicated — rather ironically — by the B-team’s ascension to the second tier, as the likes of Jáchym Šíp, Štěpán Langer or Spáčil didn’t even open the summer with the A-team. The closest thing to “next Václav Jemelka” (ie. finally a promising centre half), meanwhile, appears to Adam Bednár who too is a mainstay for the reserves and so he didn’t earn the promotion at the ripe age of 22. Last year’s new kid on the block, Tomáš Zlatohlávek, is no longer on the books.
Who did get the initial call: Mikeš Cahel (b. 2004), a ridiculously well-built, muscular teenager who left a good first impression at left wingback, but once Sláma and Zmrzlý took care of their minor knocks, Cahel got crossed out of the Hungary preparation camp. He was the last boy standing among the real adults, a frustrating state of affairs for once-prolific talent factory.
That said, there’s reasonable hope for a positive change with Janotka coming in as a new B-team coach. He’s, of course, very familiar with the 2004 class, having led them in the past season as juniors, and there are early indications that all of Cahel, Moses Amasi (powerful winger) or Patrik Michl (goalscoring striker) could fill prominent roles on 2nd-tier reserves.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
There are a couple minor ones, I’d say. I could see fit for another senior centre back (mostly so Zmrzlý isn’t wasted at LCB David Jurásek-style), even though Matys looked mature beyond his years in pre-season, as well as for a rotation holding midfielder following the departures of Jan Sedlák and Lukáš Greššák (and inexplicable burial of Spáčil in FNL). It’s not that I don’t rate Denis Ventúra — I’d readily oppose most Sigma fans who are decidedly not fond of him, in fact — but I understand the longing for a constructive (Kalvach) type rather than stay-at-home (Ventúra) type.
That said, an internal solution might be on hand. For Václav, it’s absolutely Ola Dele who’s bulked up, worked on his Czech and generally impressed as one of the fastest-improving Sigma players of past months. The Nigerian appears calm under pressure and has a sweet long range pass in him.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- I probably don’t need to tell you how excited Olomouc fans are for the return of Lukáš Juliš, largely because the former Sparta loanee didn’t waste any time in reminding everyone of his Lafata-esque instincts in front of the goal. He’ll be far less involved in the build-up than his star predecessor, no doubt about that, but if the 7 strikes in 6 friendlies are any indication, he appears to be a virtual lock to climb over 8 non-penalty goals; Chytil’s identical total in both previous campaigns.
- Curiously, there’s a ton of excitement reserved for the current Chytil-less CF crop even aside from Juliš. Pavel Zifčák is finally ready to reap the benefits of being seen primarily as a centre forward and not a wing, while Yunusa Muritala was described to me as a bit of a “hybrid between Chytil and Zifčák” — at this stage a very raw, too excited battering ram up top — who’s likely to take advantage of the newly developing Nigerian diaspora at Olomouc. Complete with some more influx into the reserves (I’ve already mentioned the promising Moses Amasi, but he’s not alone — enjoying the precious company of a former Superstar, muhaha), the beautiful university city is now full of jollof-loving people, creating a safe space for Ola Dele et. co to bloom in. This is a welcome departure from the situation Florent Poulolo had found himself in, for example, as the only French speaker at Andrův stadium following the exit of Pablo González. These social aspects of one’s stint are not to be underplayed.
- Who may easily be Juliš’s go-to partner up top: Jan Vodháněl. My former crush from Bohemians returned to the Czech top flight following a brief stay in Austria and required some getting used to, but he now appears to be far more confident 1v1 — his calling card — and ready to shine. Another such joker card: Jakub Matoušek. Once again rumoured to leave, he has stuck around after all and sold his unique, powerful drive all over the shop, including somewhat bizarre right back deployment.
- While rated as average by yours truly (mostly due to the lacking depth), my model is extremely fond of Sigma’s centre back group, placing it just behind that of Slavia. All of Pokorný, Vít Beneš and Lukáš Vraštil cleared the 75-percentile bar, with the former carrying the most balanced profile, Beneš acting as a formidable clearance-machine in hot areas and Vraštil yet again hitting those sweet half spaces at the highest rate. I’m sure you could easily argue this is some collective bias of my model, but Sigma really didn’t sport the 3rd best non-penalty xGA by accident.
- Another (not so) secret weapon of this Sigma side: the difference-making fullbacks. Juraj Chvátal is effectively a playmaker stationed out wide, having showcased his top notch passing range once again and posting the best rate in cracking penalty area from open play league-wide (2,55 successful entries per game, well ahead of Jurásek’s 2,48!). Jiří Sláma, unbelievably, completed F:LIGA’s Top 3 in this vital respect, and beat both studs in combined xG+xA (0,32) — helping himself considerably via set piece delivery (12 chance-creating actions in 16,12 starts). Ondřej Zmrzlý, for his part, excels in pushing play forward via runs and knocks, forcing high turnovers leading to chance (7) and sweeping up loose balls, himself delivering 12 set piece chance-creating actions to the tune of Top 3 xG+xA league rate behind Sparta’s Wiesner and Højer.
Roster battle to follow
Coach Jílek will be spoilt for choice in the central (attacking) midfield department; to the point I personally don’t envy him whatsoever. You’ve got Fortelný ready to blossom after a frustrating, injury-full spring; Breite with his armband and permanent claim for the box-to-box CM slot; but also the prolonged veteran Navrátil who’s possibly your best option at supporting the offence by arriving late into the box. Not to mention these two:
Filip Zorvan and Pospíšil basically complete the CAM crop through their rare profiles. Without taking anyone’s breath away, Zorvan — my “biggest upgrade” of last summer — acted as a fine pressing trigger at the very least, whereas Pospíšil is the only non-Slavia player landing around/north of 80 percentile in all five ball progression related metrics I consider (meters gained via run/pass/per loss, accurate smart/through passes).
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
I imagine Sigma fans won’t be awfully satisfied with the graph above as it doesn’t screm “progress” one bit, actually pegging Olomouc for less points than they earned in both seasons following Jílek’s return to the helm. That said, the seating plan in the Top 6 is bound to make for a neck-and-neck situation once more, with Sigma seeing a sizeable 29% likelihood of UEFA football nonetheless. That’s, of course, down to our successful run for Top 15 co-efficient placement last season, leading to five UEFA competition slots in 2024/25, hence Sigma’s 2023 projection for marginally more points (up by 0,6) yet increased shot at European glory (by a substantial 11%).
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/2. Sigma defenders did collect the most goals
The prediction: Sigma will match their record winning streaks from the 1990s
The rationale: You know what’s super weird? That the longest winning streak Václav Jílek has ever put together in charge of Olomouc is only four game worth (spring 2019), accompanied by a sole respectable attempt at equalling it (one match away in April 2022). That’s it. Otherwise just some dull back-to-backs, absurdly the most Sigma of 2017/18 — a Top 4 outfit, remember — could muster. How is that even possible, and how can this coach be so consistently inconsistent? This can’t continue for his sake.
The current two record winning streaks — both 6 games long — neatly mark two of the three fondly remembered Karel Brückner eras (separated by his Drnovice/Inter Bratislava adventure). The team around Luboš Přibyl, Pavel Hapal or Radoslav Látal delivered the first string in 1992; the team around Martin Vaniak, Oldřich Machala or Miroslav Baranek duly followed up four years later. That’s neat and all, but some modern-day addition is overdue…
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