2023/24 team preview: SK Slavia Praha
Third time is supposed to be the lucky charm, right? I must admit it feels unnatural to even begin to think of Jindřich Trpišovský as a two-time failure in terms of bringing the title to Eden. But… it was perhaps not even a failure in the grand scheme of things. Their 73 points after 30 rounds in 2021/22 would fetch Slavia the title in each of the previous seven seasons; last year, it was technically the first time since 1985 that a tie-breaker (better regular season standing in this case) was the title decider. Sparta were, of course, sure to win it with a round to spare, but there’s still some momentum generated during the post-season to be taken into 2023/24…
After turning in a horrid post-season in 2022 (minus-1,35 xG difference across the five most important games), Slavia were majestic in the latest post-season (plus-4,96)… yet it both counted for the same: empty hands. Of course, there’s the domestic cup triumph, but that’s mostly a compensation insofar as preventing their arch rivals from celebrating a sweet double.
As such, it’s been a fairly different summer of recounting mistakes. While last year, the coaching stuff opted for a preparation schedule heavy on fitness building (as per usual), this off-season was more about getting used to a new formation designed to absorb a loss of yet another star defender along with a modern-day icon along the left by-line. It’s gone alright, with Slavia only failing to win their dress rehearsal vs Dynamo Dresden.
This uncharacteristic series of friendlies for a Trpišovský-led summer should, in theory, go a long way in avoiding a rusty start — something Slavia definitely didn’t achieve last year (bombing to open the season) and barely achieved the year before (scraping out a 1:0 win to win the first round, but then suffering a mood-deflating 0:1 loss to Karviná to open the spring). Hitting the ground running has certainly been a bit of an issue lately.
Can Trpišovský et co. identify a strong core and move forward with it?
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
Once again, underlying numbers flattered to deceive (Slavia fans). Just consider the following metrics and shares/per-90 rates the runners-up boasted, complete with the second best value in brackets: 72,4% of all xG owned (67%); 69,8% of all shots produced (64,9%); 17,94 successful open-play penalty area entries performed (14,56) while responsible for 78,7% of all occurring in their games (61,7%); 2,89 points earned per home game (2,22) to the tune of 83% share of Eden-tied xG (71,6%); plus-18,4 xG difference in 1st halves (11,95) to show on plus-30 actual goal difference (13).
One bit where analysts never saw eye-to-eye with a die-hard fan over the course of 2022/23 was Slavia’s top notch open-play defence from Europe-wide, let alone Czech perspective (while second Sparta allowed roughly 0,3 more non-penalty xGA per game, going by Wyscout database instead). Fans would argue data can’t capture frequent miscommunication and this sort of stuff, but the bottom line is, these numbers would’ve most definitely translated into a sterling conceded goals total had it not been for…
What went (especially) wrong
… goalkeepers quietly tripping over themselves to trip their team up.
It wasn’t too easy to notice (Ondřej Kolář delivered the sole grave error leading to goal in my books, letting the wicked Kučera mid-range shot go past him in the damning Round 30), but it was there. The job has never been easy, but that didn’t stop Aleš Mandous and Kolář combining for the most prevented goals in 2022/23, so it’s not an excuse for their breath-taking 14,68-goal swing far into the red, now ranked 3rd worst league-wide. Spare for one decent Kolář run in the spring, both guys just couldn’t stop anything extra, routinely conceding from the only dangerous shot. Mandous alone was a peculiar culprit, going from the joint-third best shot stopper in my model’s eyes to the fourth worst. It truly is a volatile position.
On the results front, it seems particularly important to note the five-game winless streak on the road on the strength of a combined 15,57 : 4,86 xG scorline (lol); their longest away misery since 2018/19 (two 3-game runs).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Václav Jurečka (19th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Petr Ševčík (CAM)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Petr Ševčík
The public opinion has caught up to his consistent high-end quality, but it took some extra time. The quiet force of Oscar Dorley, freshly signed through 2028, started off as a very good left back option to eventually settle as an elite central midfielder — to the point where Trpišovský admits Oscar is hardly considered for the vacated LWB slot (despite clearly having the tools to fill it adequately) due to the massive need for him elsewhere.
Oscar is but the first (and not last) name that’s benefitted hugely from the formation change, making for a perfect holding midfielder in a 3-5-2 (who doesn’t need to do too much actual holding for Slavia) as well as balanced central midfielder in a 3-4-3; such is the complex nature of Oscar Dorley.
The Liberian is, of course, very disciplined, pretty hard to beat in loose ball duels and even harder to beat in ground duels (compensating for his noted lack of height), but he’s also a stud in gaining the danger areas. It’s not entirely fair to compare him to other CDMs, but his 2,35 successful penalty area entries per 90 mins nonetheless far exceed the 1,90 entries (ranked 3rd, by the way, so you can see the distance developed) Lukáš Sadílek produced in a similarly dynamic role on a similarly strong team. Oscar is a very underrated chance creator indeed, leading Slavia in chances created both via applied pressure (5) and duels/getting fouled for a set piece (5).
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
The public opinion has soured on him greatly, and I’m here to issue a little pushback. Lukáš Provod is not the “2020/21 league MVP and by far the best national team performer” Lukáš Provod, but that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly a liability not worth your time. While he didn’t do much over the fall, I felt like he’s grown into the spring pretty nicely and should now be more than ready to return (close) to his best after a fully healthy off-season.
At 26, Provod appears to be at a pivotal crossroads.
Once primed for the #NextBigTransfer, there’s no such hype to ride now, but it’d be downright foolish to suggest he’s not an elite-level talent anymore. In fact, Provod quietly was just that in 2022/23, too, at least in some respects like ball progression with the ball at his feet (3rd best) and inter-connected foul-drawing ability close to the attacking penalty box (also 3rd). Apart from that, Provod mostly banks above average marks across the board, but the sheer richness of his pizza chart hides the good ol’ Provod.
The question mark here isn’t necessarily his health anymore *knocks on wood* but rather his primary position. If there’s a second striker role, it will be specifically created for Václav Jurečka. There might not be a left wing role at all. And while Provod appears to have the inside track to start the opener in place of the hobbling Petr Ševčík, he’s not likely to hold onto the role with Christos Zafeiris also vying for a substantial portion of the pie (only that now he’s struggling a bit to regain health/fitness post-U21 Euro). Could Provod be a sneaky solution at LWB? Trpišovský will give it a go, too.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @vojtechhulinsky, @quelhar, @martin_kabelka, @CubaCubicula, @zivadira, @alois_veliky and @no_ni_ck for guiding me through the motions of Slavia’s pre-season
Squad turnover
As per usual, Slavia’s squad turnover is work in progress, and I have no idea who they are going to shed in the remaining weeks of the transfer window. There’s talk about Ondřej Lingr and Aiham Ousou/Taras Kacharaba departing; there’s an expectation that Srdjan Plavšić, Petr Hronek, Maxym Talovierov (almost certainly Linz, the reported German Bundesliga interest was never concrete) will get loaned/shipped out at a minimum, with Michal Tomič possibly prolonging his stay with Slavia courtesy of a very positive camp. If you were to subtract all of the above-mentioned, Slavia would be retaining about 10% less 2022/23 minutes compared to this day and only the fifth least mins league-wide (64,9%); an unfamiliar territory for them due to David Jurásek leaving as 37th most used FORTUNA:LIGA player.
Incredibly, Jurásek alone takes 12,9% of all chance-creating actions performed by Slavia with him, one stunning portion for an individual.
Biggest upgrade
It’s not like Slavia required it, but it’s hard to say if there’s one right now.
Conrad Wallem may have the versatility (eventually travelling all across the pitch, from left wingback to right wing, I imagine) to leave a big mark, but he’s so far been in Norway more than Czechia, it appears. Sheriff Sinyan belatedly arrived injured and could be ready as late as in the spring. Tomáš Vlček is likely going straight into the starting line-up, plausibly making Slavia fans forget they still don’t have a left-footed CB option (Vlček has a decent left foot to lean on and was arguably better as LCB for Pardubice), but it’s difficult to claim the 22-year-old is an upgrade on anyone simply because Slavia hadn’t utilized a 3-4-3/3-5-2 all that much in 2022/23.
So, by process of elimination, we arrive to the boosted centre forward deck.
Stanislav Tecl technically features as low on my depth chart as last year (4th), but it sure seems like he has a longer path to the starting XI now. That may not be as good a news as most like to think/pretend (he made for a greater presence in the box last term while remaining a 90-percentile creator/connector), but it at least has potential to be. FWIW, I believe Mojmír Chytil eventually replaces Tecl’s upside with his back to the goal (though he absolutely needs to work on his lay-offs, sporting the second worst accuracy), but if the pick was indeed between Victor Olatunji and Muhamed Tijani, I have an especially hard time understanding why Slavia settled on the latter. His work rate, fitness etc. has improved (though early pre-season reviews haven’t been too raving), but his first touch barely has, and that’s one essential part of a Slavia centre forward’s typical assignment.
Make no mistake, Tijani shall provide Trpišovský with a late-match hammer inside the box, but I’m worried he won’t ever be more than that.
Biggest downgrade
This is where Slavia fans are split, so I’m going to split the section, too. For starters, however, let me set the scene by stating that Slavia controlled an astonishing 82,2% of the entire positional-attack xG flow down their left-hand side. That’s a different-planet kind of a lead on Sparta or Plzeň (neither go above 58%), and it’s actually even a tad higher than last season’s xG expression of Alexander Bah et co.’s tight grip on their own byline (81,7%). It’s the sort of dominance the word itself was invented for; it’s a cheat code.
Now, whose efforts is it more down to — David Jurásek or Peter Olayinka?
As for Jurásek, I believe there has been far too strong a pushback on his overall impact over 2022/23 in the wake of his steep pricetag. It’s been quite silly to see, honestly, because it’s totally acceptable to conclude that selling him for €14m roughly eleven months after he wasn’t deemed ready to face Panathinaikos in the UEFA Conference League play-off is a spectacular piece of business, yet all the same appreciate he remains a massive loss.
In fact, Jurásek is one of those guys who can let their pizza chart do all the talking:
As for Olayinka, I believe there has been far too strong a hype for his overall (league) impact over 2022/23 in the wake of his protracted departure. I appreciate he’s seen as a workhorse, clutch performer and what not, but this sort of stuff often leads to people overrating a player’s quality. Those late-game goals and sprints far inside your own half are perhaps the most visible, but they don’t constitute a huge chunk of one’s profile. And there’s — for one — not too much to see on Olayinka beyond that, while he — for two — actually hasn’t delivered any ground-breaking amount of important points in close game states either (six out of 15).
Olayinka has always remained a unfaltering penalty box specialist. He traditionally produces elite high-danger shot and actions in box (success) rates. That, however, isn’t as special an attribute around Slavia as it may seem. Ivan Schranz comes reasonably close to being the same kind of a beast (scoring a tad lower on shooting, but grading out as the most efficient winger once arriving to the penalty area, connecting on 32/58 his actions!) and Matěj Jurásek is already the same kind of incisive finisher at 19.
But fine, coupled with aerial strength (which I don’t consider as part of my winger model), I can see how vital Olayinka was in this department.
The trouble is, the highly-rated Nigerian fan favourite does so shockingly little elsewhere, he’s essentially become a one-trick pony; the very type Trpišovský usually readily discards, only that here it already came with much sentimental value attached so he wasn’t quite ready to do so.
What’s particularly surprising to see is Olayinka’s success rate in final third offensive duels taking a considerable dip from 36,8% in 2020/21 to the current 26,5%. Despite looking to take on players ever so often, he doesn’t have the necessary cutting edge to be an impactful dribbler upfront. Besides, while he’s never been seen as a creator, he was still above average per expected assists in 2022/23 (86,8 percentile) only to now share the same echalon with Martin Fillo (13,3) or Antonín Fantiš (20) after performing a legitimate nosedive on that front, going from 0,17 xA to a mere 0,07.
New kid on the block
I can tell you right away, there’s a truckload of pride taken in the class of 2006 across the Prague “S” giants. We’ve already touched upon Sparta’s trio of immense promise born in that year; now it’s time for their Slavia peers to take the spotlight. And I mean the real deal of a spotlight, not just a passing mention. That’s because centre back Mikuláš Konečný and central midfielder Dominik Pech both seem to have at least an outside chance to feature in FORTUNA:LIGA this season, with the latter already making his inaugural cameo (and Konečný at least making the bench on an occasion).
What makes this a fair bit spicy is that Dominik Pech had spent two years at Sparta (aged 9-11) inbetween two Slavia stints and his little brother Sebastian is still developing at their Strahov academy per Transfermarkt. He’s not related to his senior teammate David, meanwhile; himself a Sparta fan since childhood. So much for creating an air of confusion to start with.
More importantly, while coming through smaller Prague clubs (Háje and Admira respectively), both Konečný and Pech will once be considered homegrown by UEFA standards which is an important topic each year. And especially Pech appears to be a sure thing to eventually make it that far.
By @vojtechhulinsky’s estimation, there hasn’t been as gifted a central midfield prospect in Slavia’s youth ranks as Dominik Pech since Michal Švec (who was 3 months older than Pech on his own debut in 2004). Not even Pavel Bucha or Robert Hrubý had left as good a first impression on Vojta and they were 2-3 older when coming through. It’s true that there have been numerous one-hit summer wonders in the past (like Daniel Langhamer) — and Slavia fans are only working with one half of pre-season football here, since Pech soon injured his ankle and skipped the rest of the off-season — but who wouldn’t be excited about this Petr Ševčík-esque ball carrier, beautifully navigating congested waters of the middle of the park while carefully scanning the pitch? For a 16-year-old, Pech was so confident it was easy to imagine he’d stick around even with the tough competition.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Yeah, I don’t know. There are places that could be strengthened, potentially, but certainly don’t need to be for it to work, with Slavia’s biggest off-season need once mroe being to shed enough depth to (be able to) keep everyone around happy. It has been a big challenge recently, and it will be one again.
If you try really hard, you see a small need or two. Some fans would wish for a bonafide David Jurásek replacement to be signed, but aside from Trpišovský strongly suggesting it’s not realistic (ie. available/affordable), there are internal candidates to share the burden of replacing Jurásek’s knack for attacking the far post (Schranz) and crossing (Plavšić, Provod). The prospect of David Pech potentially starting as an inverted wingback was tantalizing (though unlikely given his pre-season deployment at CM), but that is now gone due to one more serious knee injury ruling him out of 2023.
Another need could, of course, be partnering with some company producing enough bubble wrap to keep Ševčík healthy for the first time since 2019/20, but this need at least doesn’t appear as pressing as it used to given that Zafeiris is effectively his (significantly younger) doppelgänger.
I have a strong feeling Slavia will be fine.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Lukáš Masopust is now 30 and closer to iconic status at Slavia — and I, for one, look forward to seeing what 2023/24 has in stock for him, both in terms of the primary role (does he more rival the fast-improving Douděra at RWB, or rather Van Buren/Jurásek for the right wing role?) and the quality delivered. I’d personally have him as a 2nd/3rd RW option and nothing more, with his 1v1 duel acumen and frequent fouling deep inside his half striking me as particular issues at RWB.
- Jakub Hromada is a very dependable holding midfielder and will once again have a big role to play in tough European games, I’m guessing. This is a guy, after all, who reached the 90+ percentile for all of bypassed-backstopped, ball losses leading to shot, tendency to switch off on defence, progressive passes allowed to go past and 1v1 duel vulnerability — five metrics that make you a sure-fire defensive stud.
- Igoh Ogbu has made Slavia fans excited in no time, but his dumb penalty foul which very much proved to be the title decider wasn’t any exception, with only three centre backs (from Brno, Teplice and Hradec) achieving a higher — hence worse — rate of fouls committed inside their own defensive third. Along with his below-average aerial duel success rate in his own penalty area, there are some substantial concerns to take note of, potentially making Aiham Ousou the better RCB option right now (until he’s inevitably made a scapegoat again).
- Ondřej Lingr is a year away from free agency, so the seemingly stalled development on the transfer rumour mill makes some Slavia fans a bit uneasy (it’s expected to pick back up after the UEFA play-off rounds). As for who’d Slavia be losing, I don’t think there’s any need to further describe the combative secondary goalscorer who’s a virtual passenger in build-up. His profile is one of the most straightforward to nail down.
- Anyone down for a Matěj Jurásek pizza chart? *a little hurricane develops as a result of a synchronized wave of hands raised* Alright, alright. Here:
Roster battle to follow
Jan Bořil is back, equipped with a new one-year contract, and ready to make the left centre back role his own. I wouldn’t put too much faith in him — and once Sheriff Sinyan returns to full fitness, he could as well be an option here (contributing to build-up in a more sophisticated way) — but he’s to be accounted for. That said, the role is now Tomáš Vlček’s to lose.
There are aspects to be mindful of, absolutely — like aerial vulnerability (though he’s improved sensationally; going from 8/20 in the fall to 10/15 in the spring as far as success rate inside his own penalty box goes) or some poor shot blocking habits (goes to the ground far too easily) — but they’ll never cast a thick enough shadow on his lightning-quick feet (I genuinely haven’t seen a young centre back with better covering pace, both in terms of anticipation and top speed) and build-up contribution. Vlček was the only centre half who landed in the 90+ percentile for both progression via runs with the ball and accurate forward passes into half spaces, with only Michal Kadlec and Jakub Klíma clearing at least the 80-percentile bar.
It’s all the more impressive that Vlček produced this pizza chart on a serious relegation candidate (albeit looking to play combination football), while looking distinctly elegant whenever he goes upfield. He’s like a David Rozehnal with plenty more attacking upside to offer and polish — with his xG+xA rate definitely requiring a big boost somewhere down the road.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
This is a fascinating one. Our forecast gives Slavia a 61% shot at returning to the throne, only down by 3% from 2022, but it also sets the side back a whopping five points as far as projected regular-season point haul goes. For context: that means a 2,21 point-per-game pace, effectively an identical twin to one Slavia sported last term (2,20), pegging the red-and-white for a frustrating re-run. In each of the 4 complete campaigns under Trpišovský, you see, Slavia reached at least 2,4 points — peaking with 2,53 in 2020/21.
For what it’s worth, I think it’d be absurd for Slavia fans to embrace this as any new standard — and I’m sure Trpišovský with his players would think so. They should absolutely aim to clear the 70-point threshold, even if their chance is down from 65% last year to 32% in this year’s model eyes.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/2. Douděra scored far earlier than Bořil returned
The prediction: Slavia will score less goals with Jurečka on the pitch than off it
The rationale: Look, I’ve done historically bad with Slavia bold predictions (guessing Sparta would lead their arch rival by 9 points at some stage of 2021/22 didn’t go down too well either), so I may as well go overboard with this one. Who cares anyway? Václav Jurečka might a little bit, since he’s probably winning the European Golden Boot considering my track record.
As I noted on the Jablonec bold prediction, the goal here is very much to go the counter-intuitive way; and what’s more on brand than to claim that a team will have a relative trouble to score with their 2022/23 top scorer around? It obviously wasn’t the case last term, with Slavia incredibly tagging their opponents twenty-four times in only eight 90-minute Jurečka shifts (which works out to a round average of 3 per game — yup, correct).
All Jurečka appearances considered, the average actually gets a lot more modest (2,53 goals per game) and trails behind the non-Jurečka average by a considerable margin (3,11). Ha! Does it mean I’m not actually being bold? Well, not so fast, since it’s safe to assume Slavia are now looking to channel something closer to Jurečka’s spring (comfortable) version than his earlier one (part injured, part angry at being left out of UEFA squad, I’m guessing).
Across the spring action only, Jurečka was on the pitch for 30 goals (in 11,76 starts; average of 2,55 goals scored) whereas Jurečka-less outfits added 17 extra strikes (in 7,24 starts; average of 2,35 goals scored). That’s more like it!
I still expected maths to make this prediction look bolder, but there you go.
Numbers are the worst, am I right?
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