2024/25 mid-season review: 1. FC Slovácko
In summer and maybe up to this point, Pardubice and Slovácko seemed to be tackling this campaign in lock step. They had both placed a daring bet on a head coach who’d never held such a role at this level. Then, once both rookie top flight managers more or less lost the dressing room, the two clubs pulled the trigger at just about the same time — on 26-27 October. And then finally, in the following 7 rounds, the two sides would move up exactly one place. But while Pardubice’s gains under Střihavka have been quite substantial with not much to build on, as I tried to demonstrate in their review, Ondřej Smetana’s Slovácko have got more ground to cover.
The outlook
I didn’t have particularly high hopes for Slovácko coming into 2024/25. I thought they were basically done and making a smart move in promoting someone who could boast a decent, if not long track record of working with youngsters. Putting aside the fact that Roman West in the end didn’t really surround himself with youth while at charge of the A-team, something the board undoubtedly reflected with their early hook, he did maintain exactly the point pace Kuba’s model foresaw, earning 1.33 points per 90 in the first 12 rounds. Squeezing sixteen points out of just 8 goals scored — two points per one goal scored, haha — may not have been sustainable, but stretch that record across the entire regular season, and Slovácko hit the sweet 40 pts.
West’s premature ending was likely a combination of factors. It probably had something to do with Milan Petržela, the pathetic minus-42 shot differential as Slovácko kept dropping deeper and deeper, and the most recent 0:4 loss to Liberec (a direct result of a 59-minute man disadvantage).
As for Smetana, it’ll be interesting to see how long a leash he is given. For now, he’s impossible to judge, spending most of his brief time on the road (four away games to two), and not really moving the needle either way. Slovácko did enjoy a lively three-game stretch under his watch, but 2/3s of that run were spent pressing the bottom three defenders, so it barely counts. What will count is any point from now on, as Smetana had dropped the pace to exactly 1 point a game and opens the spring home to Sparta, away to Jablonec. Slovácko actually saw their chances of landing in the safe middle group waters increase despite their projected point total decreasing, but if they stumble out of the gate and don’t immediately bounce back vs Dukla and Dynamo, people will get nervous quickly.
Again.
The big question
Can Smetana diversify the goal sources to the point Slovácko start… scoring?
Right now, Slovácko are turning in their 5th lowest-scoring top flight shift ever. They are averaging less than a goal scored per game (0.95), something that was last true in 2017/18 — when Kordula was mostly in charge — while the standard across the 5 complete seasons overseen by Svědík was 1.4 goals per 90. That is a particularly steep drop-off for a team which didn’t lose a single capable goalscorer over the summer (Valenta’s winter departure with 3 goals to his name meant the greatest subtraction) and added 2 senior attackers, Matyáš Kozák and Michael Krmenčík, to the fold.
For the general lack of buzz, Krmenčík has been a quiet homerun, notching 5 especially vital points, but Slovácko are still scoring by committee more than anything else, with their two top dogs (Krmenčík, Marek Havlík) matching the league’s lowest team-leading total (3). Trust me, this is not a category you want to share with Dynamo and Pardubice.
So what’s gone wrong if their own finishing has clearly been bang average? For once, the opposing goalkeepers have collectively prevented 0.24 goals. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s the third highest total in the league. Above all, though, it’s about Slovácko themselves not owning a single reliable weapon. They have created 3 penalties; converted only one. They win the least corner kicks (3.8 per game) which contributes heavily to their third lowest average xGF generated from non-penalty set pieces. They generally take the third longest time to produce a shot (in terms of passes completed per attempt) because they are plain refusing to hit the opponent on a counter, accruing a measly 0.24 xGF — one great chance — in 19 games. Even their build-up itself is ineffective, with Slovácko on average wasting 2.07 positional attacks before even touching the ball in the box (worst rate).
There is a lot to fix for Ondřej Smetana. In a regular game flow, his Slovácko will most probably lean more into crosses, much like his Baník did, which is one change that was already visible in the six rounds he got to coach (Slovácko went from averaging 4.5 deep completed crosses to 6.5). But venturing beyond positional attacks is where the key margins often lie.
The wild card
Lady Luck stops turning a blind eye on Slovácko’s undeserved wins
In terms of raw overperformance (actual points deducted from expected points), there have technically been five luckier sides than Slovácko who’ve garnered an extra 2.62 points along the way. Yet in terms of banking easy points, Slovácko are arguably second to none. Plzeň and Jablonec might be the runaway kings of overperformance, but they obviously deserved to win a few. Slovácko’s victories? In every single one of the six instances, they cashed in on at least an extra point — a true rarity. This is not to say they weren’t the better side on some of those victorious afternoons, but the highest win probability they’ve achieved while successful was 56% vs České Budějovice when they somehow still produced less non-penalty xG than the lowly opponent. Put it this way, the average non-Slovácko winner was 56% likely to prevail. Average. Slovácko literally never went beyond those odds in a victorious match; only once reaching them elsewhere (66% in R16).
Putting just those six victories together, and Slovácko are better off by an incredible 8.48 points. Sure, they were seriously unlucky on two other days, but this is still an extra 1.41 point per single victory. That’s more than Jablonec (1.35) or Olomouc (1.39), two biggest luckers around. Plzeň might have overperformed by being better than merely great (Slavia did as well per this logic), but they actually put in the work for their 3-pointers (0.92).
Knowing xP/xG gods, the tide is about to turn soon enough. And when it does, Slovácko had better be ready to dominate a matchup once in a while.
MVP race
Pole position: Michal Trávník — 577,5 pts — ranked 32nd league-wide
Prominent chaser: Milan Heča — 519,1 pts — ranked 43rd
No disrespect but there is hardly a cluster of three top MVP candidates more symbolic of their own team(‘s downfall) than the Slovácko triumvirate of Michal Trávník, Milan Heča and Marek Havlík (402,3 points). Had he not left, it would’ve been Merchas Doski, but only just (by two MVP pts), and he too wouldn’t have made for a particularly inspiring choice.
Trávník is here because he takes set pieces well (12 chances, 2 goals created that way) — kudos for that, and that alone. Heča is here because he stole points away from Jablonec and Slavia, and produced the single most impressive 2024/25 performance in terms of prevented goals (1.46 PG in the Olomouc loss) — looking largely ordinary or sub-par otherwise. And Havlík is here despite enduring the weakest individual autumn in recent memory, boosting his goal total with a penalty and a trademark low-xG rocket.
My personal favourite for most of the fall was Filip Vaško, another summer hit, but after getting tagged for 10 chances and 3 goals allowed in the last five rounds alone, he had no chance. He’d been a front-runner until then.
Bold prediction temperature check
Prediction: Petržela scores as Slovácko earn 900th top flight point
Status: Dead in the water
This one died on various counts. First of all, Slovácko would’ve lost in darts, because in trying to get to a round 900, they went straight for 901. At least that was in a famous home win against Ostrava, one of the better matchups to achieve the feat in, but Milan Petržela didn’t even left the bench on the day; joining the “boží bojovníci” at Žižkov after a scoreless 187 mins since.
Oh well, at least this gives us an excuse to re-post the marvelous intro.
If you made it here and enjoyed the article, please do consider supporting our work by donating a small amount of money at BuyMeACoffee page. Cheers!
