2024/25 mid-season review: SK Sigma Olomouc
Even coach Tomáš Janotka himself probably could’ve imagined a much worse follow-up when he abruptly delegated three previously influential veterans in Beneš, Pospíšil and Macík to the reserves on the eve of the first round. Instead, here he is: in charge of the 5th youngest side (average age of 25.2 years per Wyscout) that’s completed a rare double over Mladá Boleslav, beat Sparta and currently sits 7th in standings. Underlying numbers are far from flattering, but rest assured, Sigma wouldn’t have it any other way amidst continued fan protests against the board that is refusing to let go — something even Janotka dared to address halfway through the successful autumn, tanking his huge popularity a bit.
The outlook
Per expected points, Sigma would rank 13th. But how much should they care when the team led by the rookie top flight manager is now pacing towards a better regular record (1.37 points per game) than in any of the last four Jílek-led campaigns at Sigma (on average a pace of 1.31 points)?
Arguably not much.
There is a solid expectation this team will only continue to grow with the talented motivator in charge, and if this is supposed to be just a start… it is indeed one hell of a departure point to rise from. Will there be some growing pains? Yes, and regression is definitely coming to at least some extent. But it’s not like the forecast had to adjust wildly — in each of the last three years, it was adding to the summer projection but only bit by bit.
Seemingly most important part of the spring forecast is that beyond Round 21 — after the nightmare Plzeň-Ostrava double header to restart — the schedule gets pretty soft… and arguably becomes the softest of all. It’s one thing to overperform by 5.27 points per xP, but it’s another thing entirely when you do it with Boleslav and Slavia in a rear-view mirror. From that perspective, the regression may not hit quite as hard as in other cases.
The big question
Can they keep making the most of their attacking set pieces?
Attacking set pieces — and corner kicks in particular — are a very obvious strength of Janotka’s Olomouc. While spotting set piece patterns is hardly the most straightforward exercise an avid football watcher undertakes, Sigma have turned it into a fairly easy and fun one. From taking the corners “short” via long but grounded passes, or inswingers targetting the space right under the bar where the goalkeepers are the least comfortable (with one or two players typically bumping into him along the way), you just get a sense Olomouc always know what they are doing. And per Vojta’s first-hand experience from their time spent together with the Czech U-19 national team, Janotka does love to practice — and take advantage of — set pieces.
Sure enough, Sigma currently lead the league in both corner kick (7) and free kick (5) goals separately, getting credited with 0.34 goals per game (where the second-best rate is 0.26) and on average owing the biggest portion of their matchup non-penalty xGF to all kinds of set pieces (38.6%).
The thing is, they also boast the highest conversion rate — 12 goals to “just” 34 set piece chances wasted (which is “only” the 8th best number) — and that may not be sustainable even if Sigma continue to follow up the highest percentage of corner kicks with a finish of some sort (nearly 40% of all).
At this rate, Sigma would wrap up the regular season with 19 goals sourced exclusively from corner kicks and (in)direct free kicks (Sigma have yet to score from a throw-in), while Slavia and Sparta registered 13 across the full 35-round campaign last season, and Plzeň led the way with just 15.
The wild card
Their hidden gem on the right-hand side stays (un)tapped in the spring
Either way, however good they truly are and remain to be, set pieces are Sigma’s not-so-secret weapon. Matěj Hadaš and his playmaking? Quite the opposite. His recent extension didn’t get much publicity even though it was a big deal for Olomouc. It might not seem that way looking at the visualization above, but make no mistake — Sigma are 8th in the league in defending the right-hand side channel (which is good) and so the concerning % of control is merely down to attacking (0.12 xGF per game; worst mark in the league) which is, in turn, mostly down to opportunity.
As Vojta once again astutely pointed out in one of our podcast sessions, Sigma sometimes plain refuse to attack through Hadaš, often preferring the left channel. This is easily demonstrable, since Wyscout tracks the number of positional attacks led down all of the three channels in each game. In the early goings, Sigma made a great use of Hadaš, which is why I took notice in the first place — and immediately started hyping his unique skillset. In the first 7 rounds, 48.4% of positional attacks were led down the right compared to 31.3% down the left. In six of those rounds, it was their busiest channel. But then, Hadaš dropped out for just one game (R8 vs Dukla), and that’s proven enough for the tide to turn. The right-hand side was the preferred one for attacking only four times the rest of the way.
Ultimately, up until R15 beyond which Sláma didn’t play much (and didn’t attempt a single penalty area entry from open play), Hadaš had averaged 2.8 box entries per game — succeeding with 47.6% of them — whereas Sláma had averaged 4.1 attempts (62 to 42 in real numbers) — posting a 45.2% success rate. A gulf in opportunity; a considerable gap in efficiency.
This is a huge lesson in viewing and interpreting football data. A lot of things — clearances, prevented goals and the like — is indeed heavily influenced by opportunity; ie. by the number of swings you are allowed to take. Hadaš has had to do with a relative little, and yet he’s the only Sigma player who’s into the double digits with both deep completed passes (13) and crosses (11), making for a unicorn of a fullback (not even wingback!).
MVP race
Pole position: Filip Zorvan — 873,2 pts — ranked 8th league-wide
Prominent chaser: Jan Kliment — 805,4 pts — ranked 13th
If my MVP model worked on a per-game basis, Jan Kliment would be wearing the yellow jersey — it’s almost a given. Through an early red card, subsequent suspension and injury, he ended up just barely crawling over the 10-start bar, yet through goals only (no assists despite a solid 13 chances created), he’s managed to add a league-leading 10.46 expected points per CSfotbal’s unique model. That’s more than a point per full 90 minutes.
Kliment was shortlisted for team of the week on more than half of matchdays he was eligible (6/11), claiming 3 crowns for Deník Sport’s man of the match and 7 times he was the best player on his team per Livesport rating. Nine of his 11 strikes were either go-ahead goals or equalizers.
Through all of this, there was Filip Zorvan by Kliment’s side; ready to assist. A true Robin to Sigma’s Batman per common narrative, Zorvan contributed to 5/11 of Kliment’s goals (albeit twice indirectly), but he holds up on his own, too. In the seven games (mostly) without Kliment, Zorvan notched 1 goal, 2 assists and 3 second/third assists, meaning he averaged almost one goal contribution per game — including four against Prague “S”.
Of course, as always with these sudden bouts of goals or assists, there is the question of sustainability. Zorvan set his career-high in assists (5) after 14 rounds only, and has delivered those 7 helpers from 3.4 expected assists. Perhaps even more significantly, Kliment bagged 11 goals from 4.37 xG. He had equalled his career high (10) while cutting the minutes by a thousand.
Speaking of breakthroughs, what about Matěj Mikulenka and his 7 goal contributions (5 of them vital) to go with 8 contributions to wasted chances? Is he simply a clutch scorer who drives to the net and gets consistently rewarded for (also consistently) getting his hands dirty like the peak Ondřej Lingr used to do for Slavia? Or is he just one lucky fella?
Like with quite a few Sigma success stories: we will need to wait and see…
Bold prediction temperature check
Prediction: Jan Navrátil will bag 3+ goals off the bench to lead the way
Status: Very unlikely to come through
First of all, Sigma are still not getting any help off the bench. In the bold prediction write-up, I noted the peculiar lack of super-subs, “with even Jan freaking Sedlák acting as a joint-top scorer among Sigma subs over the previous two seasons combined”, expecting it to change with the likes of Jáchym Šíp and Mikulenka coming through. But then these two mostly took part in games in the capacity of outright starters, and so the only off-the-bench strike was authored by Jan Fiala in the famous Sparta 3:2 victory.
Second of all, Jan Navrátil is apparently still a starter’s material when healthy. He participated on 12 matches; a whopping nine times as a starter. Accordingly, he scored once — in the 5th minute of the Boleslav 3:1 scalp.
Given the continuing lack of difference-making sub appearances throughout the squad, it’s still easily manageable for Navrátil to top Sigma’s scoring charts as a super-sub, but it most likely won’t be with 3+ goals.
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