2024/25 mid-season review: SK Slavia Praha
Boy, Slavia look scary. I realize how this might be coming across after just witnessing them fail at PAOK, vs Malmö — and in Europa League at large — but that’s precisely a part of the reason why Slavia look so scary right now. “Slavia getting too distracted by continental success” was pretty much the only feasible departure point for anyone who wanted to try to come up with a scenario in which Slavia do not celebrate at the end of the season. Because it really does boil down to that one thing: Plzeň or Sparta do not become champions just by improving their own play (even vastly); they absolutely need Slavia to implode at the same time. And I mean implode.
The outlook
In summer, the model saw their historic second-place finish that would’ve made for a first-place finish in most seasons, I saw their transfer dealings that had Chorý, Kinský, Prebsl, Chaloupek and Fila coming in with no one of consequence coming out, and the result was a stonewall prediction.
Even after an ultimately disappointed campaign, they were suddenly better off by 6 points as far as their summer forecast went. It seemed to go against the logic at the first sight, only for it to make a lot more sense at the second. Slavia were projected to earn 71.5 points inside the regular season for a 64% shot at the crown in 2022, and the model burned itself. This time around, it doubled down with 72.2 points and a 78% likelihood, which certainly isn’t on its way to backfire, with the likelihood rising by 20%.
The lesson here is clear: when you have no good reason to believe someone has been strong for a while (with the sole exception of one down year, or spring, in 22/23) and recently got stronger on balance while the others (namely Sparta) have been strong for a relative fraction of that time — a 5-year window — and recently got weaker, why would you proceed to overreact and ultimately overcorrect with a damning projection? That’s the strength of Kuba’s model which routinely can see the forest for the trees.
(Or Slavia find a way to fuck up again and I look like an idiot in a few…)
The big question
Do we keep witnessing the most dominant side in the analytics era’s history?
Slavia are not unbeaten anymore, so they won’t be the most impressive side in history for result-oriented folks, but for process-oriented ones, they very well may be. If they at least vaguely keep this up, they no doubt will be.
To be clear, Slavia have posted some of the most sterling underlying numbers; some I’m seeing for the first time in four years of doing this. I may have recently pushed back on El Hadji Malick Diouf as a consistent offensive weapon he’s often made out to be (Slavia’s left channel was only the 3rd most dangerous around per xGF), but controlling 90% of the xG flow on your side? Hell yeah, that’s already something — something I’d never seen. Leading the way in non-penalty xG share by nearly 15 per cent without grossly overachieving in terms of non-penalty goal share? C’mon. Going far over a two-xP-per-game rate both home and away? Give me a break honestly.
You can no longer claim Slavia are unbeatable, but they sure were unplayable. Even on that fateful Teplice afternoon, they were 79% likely to win based on chances created on both sides, suffering from the third most significant case of injustice this term. Their average win probability of 71% is a whopping 17 percentage points higher than the second-best one, because it’s a product of no extremes. If you were to erase 3 best values, it’d still be at an impressive 67%. If you did the same to Sparta and Plzeň, two other teams going over 50% with their average win probability, their values would drop to 48% and 46% respectively, already creating a 19-21% gulf.
Right now, it’s much harder for me to imagine that Slavia’s dominance will suddenly erode than that they will continue riding this ridiculous wave.
But maybe it’s just me…
The wild card
Kinský’s absence (not) felt far beyond his reliable shot-stopping
When Antonín Kinský left the best team in Czechia for a worse team in England, a common reaction once the dust settled read along the lines of “well, at least they have Staněk who’s about as good a goalkeeper as Kinský is”, with the additional reasoning normally reading something like “at least in the traditional sense, as a shot stopper, which still matters the most”.
It does, and it does not. For one, it’s easy to forget given the workload but Kinský still did some traditional goalkeeping — and to a very high standard. Wyscout tagged him for the sixth most prevented goals on the season (3.85) and even after my corrections bringing his total down to 2.00, he ranks fifth. Since entering the league in summer 2023, Kinský has prevented 0.2 goals per game (over a 40-game sample), while Staněk is at 0.13 goals over a smaller sample (which normally works in a goalkeeper’s favour here).
But fine, even if we buy into the narrative that Staněk is a superior shot stopper (certainly a flashier one, I’ll give you that), it shouldn’t be ignored that the light workload Kinský had faced is also down to his own work.
Do you think Slavia going from allowing 1.61 counter-attacks to develop in front of Staněk to allowing 0.37 with Kinský nominally stationed further up the pitch, sniffing out these opportunities, is just some pure coincidence?
Think again.
Do you think Kinský’s assuredness on the ball didn’t show on Slavia only turning the ball over in danger waters 0.16 times per 90, whereas they did so 0.6 times per 90 with a shakier man between the posts in 23/24, cutting the average value of a shot against in half — from 0.11 xGA to 0.06? And do you think Kinský’s superior rebound control didn’t play a role, too?
Think again.
Do you think Staněk causing a chance/goal 7 times via his misjudged interception, claim and punch or a misplaced pass compared to just 6 times he, in turn, performed effective damage control made for any sort of a comparable presence to Kinský who was now a plus-12 with his actions?
Yeah, you really should think again.
Staněk does appear confident when coming off the line because he’s a loud persona, but when you zoom out, his resume is far from spotless. Kinský, on the other hand, can overdo it with the curls on the ball, but on balance…
It is true that the 2024 autumn versions of Igoh Ogbu, Tomáš Holeš or David Zima easily outperform their own 2024 spring versions, but they weren’t the only reason why Slavia’s defence has commanded more respect. It’s by no means a foregone conclusion this trend will continue without Kinský.
MVP race
Pole position: Lukáš Provod — 1212,3 pts — ranked 1st league-wide
Prominent chaser: El Hadji Malick Diouf — 817,7 pts — ranked 12th
There’s no stopping of Lukáš Provod currently, other than a serious injury. With one worry of that kind luckily dodged over the winter break, he’s hopefully not missing much time, which most likely means he’s running away with it. Provod is already working from a position of a nearly 200-point headstart as the lone player earning an average Deník Sport mark above seven (7.1), a contributor to 14 goals, the league’s joint-leader in primary chance-creating actions (19), runner-up in all chances created (38), and a favourite to claim the “most assists” title when all is said and done.
Still, there are notable challengers who could take advantage of any hiccups. Diouf is enjoying an impactful season on the scoreboard, racking up an incredible 6.36 expected points added (for a defender anyway) through his goals and assists, while Tomáš Holeš is enjoying a true renaissance at an age when this sort of a bounce back wasn’t a sure thing anymore. He’s already a seven-time TotW nominee after only getting nine calls last season, who’s already tripled the amount of times he was Deník Sport’s MotM (3 to 1), and a positive contributor at both ends of the pitch.
Finally, there’s Tomáš Chorý whose case will be a fascinating one to follow. He’s not done much heavy-lifting in terms of goal value (only a trio of his 7 were truly meaningful), but his six non-scoring contributions are of note.
Bold prediction temperature check
Prediction: A Slavia player is given the Foreigner of the Year award
Status: Could be on the way
It needs to be stated from the get go this was a two-flamer only, so not a particularly bold prediction, but it looks promising. If no Premier League club suddenly snatches El Hadji Malick Diouf, he’s surrounded himself with enough hype he could do it. Aside from him, I don’t think Oscar or Christos Zafeiris are getting considered, but Igoh Ogbu could be in with a strong shout, especially if Slavia approach the record in goals conceded. That would inevitably be an achievement the Nigerian has got his fingerprints all over, and if the solid but unspectacular Asger Sørensen proved enough of a household name to claim it, Ogbu is at that level, too.
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