2024/25 team preview: AC Sparta Praha
When Sparta last angled for a clean hat trick of titles in 1998, they were coming off an easy job, winning by a 12-point margin. The defensive-minded trio of Michal Horňák, Tomáš Řepka and Jiří Novotný was their pride and backbone, giving Sparta their joint-4th best average of conceded goals since the start of the 1990s. Upfront, meanwhile, they were rather underwhelming. Horst Siegl topped the goal charts again, but he did so with just 13 tallies and was the lowest scoring golden boot holder of the period between 1953 (when the league schedule consisted of 13 rounds) and 2006 (when Milan Ivana turned into his legendary 11-goal shift). It was only a third and last time during the high-scoring 90s that Sparta dropped below the average of 2 goals scored per game (1,77).
Seen from the attack vs defence perspective, Sparta couldn’t be in a more contrasting situation now. Last season’s unstoppable attack lags behind only three of the last 16 Sparta title-winning firepowers stretching all the way back to the 90s. Their goals scored average (2,34) was still a significant improvement over the 2022/23 one (2,17) — and that already ranks 8th in the last 34 Sparta seasons. It’s been a steady rise since Pavel Vrba’s 2,06.
As for defence, Brian Priske et co. can’t claim much success. His inaugural campaign for Sparta’s second worst title-winning season since the 90s per goals against average, while his follow-up was fifth. These champions were indeed nothing like the most recent predecessor (2013/14) when Vítězslav Lavička’s Sparta actually boasted a historically great offence and defence.
What was very different, too, was Sparta’s publically stated continental ambition through de facto owner and second richest Slovak Alexander Rezeš who had just left the position of his country’s Minister for transport, connections and public works to come to Prague and declare the goal of becoming a “Czech AC Milan”. That was the summer 1997 when a high-investing Sparta — immediately pumping millions into Václav Němeček, Miroslav Baranek, Martin Hašek and Szillárd Németh, “greatest Czechoslovak talent of recent years” per Rezeš’s other infamous quote — made the re-branded Champions League proper for the very first time.
Sparta of 2024 haven’t been to UCL group stages for almost 20 years (2005) and only really broke the bank for one guy, largely staying off market.
Still, there are some uncanny similarities. In 1998, Sparta were also losing a loud, hot-tempered defender to his belated challenge in a top league (Tomáš Řepka was 24 then, only a year younger than Ladislav Krejčí now) without properly replacing him afterwards. Then they duly proceeded to clinch the hat trick without the tactical mastermind of the previous two who had left to fulfill his dreams (Jozef Chovanec took charge of the Czech national team halfway through 1997/98 already, but he was also replaced by his own assistant Zdeněk Ščasný who was supposed to preserve continuity).
It’s up to Lars Friis now to turn into a more convincing follow-up act than Ščasný whose UCL adventure ended far too soon via the infamous Petr Gabriel own goal, while the biggest headline-grabbing moment of his title run was by far the messy winter divorce from the beloved captain Novotný. The Slovak owner was, meanwhile, accumulating debts in the background.
Friis’ promotion, of course, surprised no one. He had been a head coach before (albeit only for 18 months that could hardly be considered a success), his arrival midway through 2022/23 to improve the attacking phase of Sparta’s game was widely seen as a game-changer on the way to the first title in 9 years, and it’s not like he was just quietly sitting next to Priske as his evident right-hand. It was a logical step from Tomáš Rosický, also with regards to Priske’s abrupt departure in a Euro-affected summer.
Priske’s aura and Lukas Babalola’s tactical input will be dearly missed, but there’s a case to be made about Sparta’s coaching staff now appearing at least as strong as in the spring. Priske’s duties on defence will be assumed by Jens Askou who actually left a head coaching position (!) at Swedish top-tier IFK Göteborg (!!) halfway through the season (!!!) for Sparta. He’s a former defender, which might bode well too. (Just don’t look up how Göteborg were doing before his departure.) Tim Sparv, a highly-rated bright mind already in his playing career days, was promoted from the reserves, whereas Jan Blažíček — man behind Sparta’s attacking set pieces taking a visible dip in the second half of the season — got demoted. Christian Clarup, fitness coach who was widely expected to follow Priske, has stayed put.
We’ll see how it goes without Priske, but it’s safe to say the backroom staff makeover has been much better-received than the new “Sparta Unlimited” project that offers a wide range of incentives as part of a unique subscription service — including a partnership with Nova Sport channel to stream the UCL qualifiers — at a time when some people still can’t be arsed to pay for quality content that takes hours to make while all the same happily paying for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney TV, HBO and the like…
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
The first successful title defence in 23 years, quickly followed by the first domestic double in a decade — is there more to say? Okay then, here it goes:
Sparta only lost two league games all season, both crammed between critical cup games sucking up focus (must-win UEL home stand vs Rangers + demanding MOL Cup R16 vs Bohemians; then the Liverpool double header). They were the best first-half outfit around, not winning at the break only 16 times and effectively burying 9 games this early (2+ goal lead at half-time), with a combined goal difference of plus-33. Their build-up was far improved, with Sparta controlling 73,9% of the xG flow down the middle (about 10% better than the next team which surprisingly wasn’t Slavia btw), absolutely crushing their opponents down the left (0,34 xGF per game) and through the busy central channel (0,65 — Slavia were at 0,47). Their counter-attacks, frequently featuring Peter Vindahl’s insanely long throws and Jan Kuchta’s playmaking instincts, were once again clinical, fetching Sparta the most xGF around per Wyscout (0,2 per game!) and a hardly believable 19 goals per my notes (Slavia only benefitted from 4).
What went (especially) wrong
This one is probably too obvious: discipline. Sparta became only the 6th team ever (and 2nd team in this century after last term’s Hradec Králové) to reach the double digits of red cards seen by their players. That total stopped at 10, or twelve if you include MOL Cup (1) and Europa League (1), and it could’ve looked a lot worse had referees been more ruthless with the coaching staff, especially Priske and Friis who were often very vocal. Incredibly, Sparta wrapped up three back-to-back games down a man. All put together, they spent 367 minutes — or four full games — in disadvantage. For context, they only spent 243 minutes all league season long in losing positions. Remarkably, it only cost them 2 points — at first try when Teplice managed to draw level, soon rendering that meaningless by allowing Sparta to overturn a deficit in 10 men for a change — but next time…
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Veljko Birmančević (1st in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Lukáš Haraslín (100 pct at W)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Veljko Birmančević
The famed triumvirate. Neither of them dropping below average Deník Sport mark of 6,5 (which only two other F:LIGA regulars — Oscar Dorley and Rafiu Durosinmi — managed to reach), Jan Kuchta, Lukáš Haraslín and Veljko Birmančević put in one of the most formidable collective shifts in memory. Kuchta landed a helping hand to the most goals (33 when you count indirect contributions), Haraslín and Birmančević were the only Sparta players per my models who dominated the most on their positions. (That’d mean considering Birmančević a CAM, which I did along with W.)
While I was very fond of Adam Hložek, the unstoppable Serb is definitely the most versatile weapon there has been since I started covering the Czech top flight. There’s a debate to be had whether he’s at his best coming from the left or tucking in from the right — something we’d never experienced with Hložek. He was undisputably the most capable creator from wide positions who made Kuchta look elite as a finisher, and yet also possibly the best wide receiver who made Kuchta look elite as a creator. There is nothing he couldn’t and wouldn’t do, leading the league in goal-scoring chances created off forced turnover (9), capably stretching the play horizontally and threading the second most through balls among CAMs, winning the highest percentage of offensive duels in the final third among Ws (57,9% success rate beats the second best one by a whopping 4,5%), delivering some of the finest set pieces (creating 18 chances/goals that way), and not shying away from finishing off great chances in the box.
It obviously isn’t just underlying numbers that paint Birmančević elite. It’s the rest that truly makes him the league’s MVP. His two colleagues would normally have a strong case, as well, but not in a year when 16 of Birmančević’s 27 points came in close game states, bringing a ton of value (Kuchta notched 12 of those, Haraslín only 6). Not in a year when his goals ultimately fetched Sparta over 11 expected points per CSfotbal, the most in the league, while making use of only a single penalty. Not in a year when ‘Birma’ claimed the man-of-the-match award from a Deník Sport writer on 8 occasions (Haraslín and Kuchta combined for 9). Simply not this year.
That being said, let us not forget about the amazing year Haraslín just had. His numbers mentioned above don’t jump off the page, but that’s mostly because he only got to play 67,2% of the time Birmančević received (1599 minutes of actual playing time per Wyscout versus 2380 minutes). That is a huge difference which helps to explain why my model, working on a strict per-game basis, actually slightly favours the Slovak over the Serb.
There’s no need to pit the two star teammates against each other, though. They are different, and they are both “the best” in their own right. If you put their winger pizza charts together and always took the better value, such a fictional player would crawl over the 90-percentile bar in 9/16 W metrics, including some of the most important ones like high-danger shots (Haraslín), chance and secondary goal creation (Birmančević) or xA (both).
Ultimately, only six wingers graded out as at least above average in all four areas of the game I’ve defined for the purpose of league-wide comparison. Two are youngsters who were mostly inflating their numbers against inferior opponents in a small sample (Matěj Jurásek, Adam Karabec); two are some of the most complete wide players we’ve seen in a decade (Jan Kopic, Lukáš Provod). And the last two are, of course, the Sparta studs:
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
It’s generally pretty hard to identify a 21-year-old who finds himself at a critical career crossroads. Sparta, potentially, could’ve had three of them. Now that Kryštof Daněk is the last (young) man standing, he’s kind of carrying a chip on a collective shoulder — for Michal Ševčík, whose recent quote that he doesn’t quite understand why he didn’t get more chances is both understandable and most likely closing the doors on his Sparta stint; and for Adam Karabec, whose 2. Bundesliga loan feels more like liberation.
While the common consensus seems to be that Karabec simply hasn’t progressed enough to blossom at Sparta, I don’t find that true at all. The thing — and his ultimate downfall — is, his progress can hardly be measured.
This is already a second time he appears to be a cream of the crop at his position. In 2021/22, he was a 91,5-percentile attacking midfielder. This past season, he was a 97,6-percentile attacking midfielder. If you consider him more of a winger over the two Priske-led seasons (as you arguably should), then he’s taken a massive step forward in 2023/24, improving from a slightly above average winger (55,6 pct) to an outright elite one (88,4 pct). But all this carries marginal value when you’re all the same talking about campaigns worth of roughly 15, 12 and 11 full starts. Those are all samples you can barely take anything away from. Half of his ten 23/24 appearances from the start came against the eventual bottom 6, and another pair of full starts came against then-poor teams who ended up losing badly (autumn Hradec, spring Slovácko). Sub appearances are specific — and he made 11.
That’s ultimately why the pizza chart below doesn’t matter because it doesn’t tell us much. Karabec needs faith to show us who he actually is.
And that brings us neatly to Kryštof Daněk; someone who has already been leaned on heavily by two different clubs, and whose progress is indeed underwhelming when wholly assessed. That’s not to say he’s a bad player who can’t be a difference-maker. He absolutely isn’t, and he absolutely can be. But there are exactly six metrics he appeared very good or elite in this season, and let’s see if you can spot a common thread: high-danger shots, actions in box success rate, self-created chances, accelerations with the ball, ball progression via runs, and finally chances created via dribbles.
That is one formidable box attacker right there; someone who makes you shit yourself whenever he gobbles up the ball and starts running at you.
Now let’s look at the 2020/21 version of Kryštof Daněk, a teenage sensation: successful actions in the box, expected goals, successful offensive duels in the final third, successful progressive runs, accelerations with the ball, dangerous set pieces won up high, and finally high recoveries via duels.
That is one formidable box attacker right there; someone who makes you shit yourself (or foul) whenever he runs at you with or without the ball.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I am not here to claim Daněk needs to become a more “complex” player in the sense of becoming less special. Quite the opposite: I’d just like to see him grow into a more impactful ball-carrying specialist. You don’t need to have a cute through ball in you to land higher than in the 34,9 (23/24) or 47,8 (20/21) percentile for expected assists. Petr Juliš, somewhat similar rookie from Hradec, landed far higher (74,4 pct). You shan’t be a gifted dribbler like Daněk and yet gain the penalty area from open play at the 7th worst rate among regular wingers like he just did. He registered just 1,19 such successful entrances per 2023/24 game; Daněk was sporting a much better rate (1,50) when he was two years younger.
Daněk was still a legitimate weapon for Pardubice last term, contributing to 16 goals (or 64% of goals the team scored with him on the pitch) and standing tall as one of the most dangerous players in the league between R9-16. But it’s all the same easy to understand the frustration of fans over him. When he doesn’t get on the ball and doesn’t have space to run into… he’s close to useless. That’s the narrative he needs to change — and perhaps the tide is turning now. He was widely praised after the first pre-season friendly and might open Round 1 due to some Euro/UCL-related resting.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @odbrzdeno, @vitastudlar, @martin2121h, @VencaJares, @kridelnikv, @TomasUrbanek_ and @interhofer for guiding me through the motions of Sparta’s pre-season
Squad turnover
After shocking the fans by extending both Jakub Pešek and David Pavelka, Sparta have only shed six players who took part in 2023/24, one of them in September already (Martin Minchev), two more in winter (Václav Sejk, James Gomez) and… let’s rather not speak about Michal Ševčík’s 88 mins.
That leaves us with Patrik Vydra, who was actually close to net-negative contributor, and Ladislav Krejčí — the only significant loss to date — meaning both Prague “S” are the two most rigid outfits out there right now. Last year at this stage, they ranked 4th and 7th; the year before that they ranked 2nd and 7th — it never happens even if both Slavia and Sparta typically hold off trimming the squad long past my deadline. Still, for the Letná side it’s no change of trend, as they seemingly always lose only that one 2000+ minute regular — Hložek in 2022, Kovář in 2023. At the same time, this is a bit of a different shock compared to 2021 when their biggest loss (only player among the 11 most used) was Matěj freaking Hanousek. Krejčí was involved in 20 goals and shortlisted 12x for a team of the week; Hanousek had zero points and never saw his name put up to the vote.
Biggest upgrade
Since no one has seen 2 of the 3 arrivals suit up for Sparta yet, and I haven’t had any time to properly research them, it pretty much has to be Ermal Krasniqi by default. And truth is, it would quite likely be him anyway.
Sparta had probably been craving a fast winger capable of playing on both wings for a while, and they’ve now got that in the former Ballkani attacker who tallied twice in 2022/23 Conference League — and once against Slavia. Last summer, my Haraslín backups on the depth chart read Jakub Pešek, Martin Minchev and Michal Ševčík (in that order), and I was not happy. This year, we are already sure Birmančević can also switch to the left as a different type of a player, while Krasniqi is closer to Haraslín in profile.
That said, it won’t be straightforward either. Friis himself noted that Krasniqi will have some getting used to Sparta’s intensity despite the immense acceleration he immediately showcased in his debut vs Trnava. Per Bárt Černík of Liga Naruby, Krasniqi was also considered by Slavia but Trpišovský et co. decided his behaviour off the ball would be a problem. Seeing a 187cm forward who doesn’t excel in the box or in the air the same way Olayinka has also wasn’t too tempting for the nostalgia hunters of Slavia. Sparta don’t mind it, since Haraslín is also not an avid defender. He’s brought the X factor, though, and the hope is Krasniqi will do the same. Think what you will about Kosovan or Romanian top flight, but 55 points (39+16) in 108 full starts over the last four years is a fine business card.
Speaking of upgrade, I’d also like to mention the potential for game-changing internal growth of Victor Olatunji in particular. He was a late summer arrival in 2023 — short on fitness, fresh off dealing with visa — and that understandably showed on his erratic, weak performances later on. The Nigerian has looked fresher, more dynamic, simply more ready this summer, and may easily push Kuchta for more opportunities this term.
Biggest downgrade
I have a bit of a positive reckoning to do with Ladislav Krejčí… at last.
A year ago, as he was officially named the league’s MVP for his ice cold penalties and leadership qualities, I issued a pushback on his actual ability. Rather controversially, I noted he was now a club’s icon far from achieving the status of a league-wide great. I stand by it, and I still don’t think his skillset outside of attacking headers is awfully translatable to a Top 5 league, but it should be noted he did far better in 2023/24 than last term.
Most importantly, he was finally aerially dominant in his own backyard, too, swapping an underwhelming 46,7% success rate in the defensive box (39,7 percentile) for a much more befitting 62,5% (70,8 percentile). His ground duel behaviour — and focus — was on a different planet, meanwhile, going from the league’s basement (8,6 pct) to the league’s elite (92,3 pct). His mobility is still nothing to write home about, of course, but he’s come on leaps and bounds in sweeping up loose balls, as well (31 pct x 81,5 pct). While Krejčí remains a relatively exploitable CB with poor anticipation, he’s appeared more aware of his surroundings, both on the ball and off it.
New kid on the block
Last year in this space, I noted at the beginning the following: “There’s also considerable buzz forming around The Big Three of the Future AKA Daniel Rus, Vojtěch Hranoš and Roman Mokrovics AKA possibly top 5–10 talents of their 2006 class; the latter two sourced from Moravia/Silesia. They arrive exactly 10 years after a pretty decent 1996 class headlined by the high-profile likes of Patrik Schick, Jindřich Staněk and Michal Sáček.”
Then I quickly moved on to those with a more realistic shot.
Now is not the time to move on, as the above-mentioned trio, along with the spring sensation Radek Šiler (b. 2004), opened the pre-season with the A-team after combining for a stunning 24 goals in the senior second tier. A lot of those (10) were notched by Šiler who was the only one to not go to Germany for the final part of the preparation. Roman Mokrovics has, meanwhile, caught the eye. He was among the best Sparta players in the pre-season opener vs AIK, flashing his technique, creativity and agility. A few days later he was subbed on against Brøndby, too, and soon after signed a new contract only 18 months after arriving from Olomouc.
That being said, he’s likely not getting anything more than a sniff here and there in 2024/25, and so Sparta fans are arguably even more intrigued to see whether he can now register the first assist in the second tier (to go with 5 goals so far), or whether Ondřej Penxa (b. 2007) — fellow left winger who torched U-19 top division this spring (11 goals and 16 points in 853 mins!) and a four-goal star of the recent U-17 Euro — can climb up one level.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Initially, I wanted to see a competent backup for Filip Panák whose absence always ushered in some serious crumbling last season. Patrik Vydra, the original backup plan, never had the right skillset and the experiment backfired badly against Slovácko (R22) when Panák needed to be subbed on at half-time. The emergency glass needed to be broken in R27, too, when Asger Sørensen bombed in the middle CB role and required Panák to warm up during the break again to push Krejčí into the midfield.
At the same time, it wasn’t as though Panák fared flawlessly. Especially in the 2nd half of the season, he started to show some serious cracks. Going from 1078 minutes to 2385 in a matter of few months, the only time Panák has chewed on a comparable amount of top flight minutes was in 2017/18. He was a 22-year-old Karviná midfielder back then; it is that long ago.
With Mathias Ross in the fold, this should no longer be the case. He profiles as a suitable Panák alternative — strong, tall, quite confident on the ball — who could look like a liability elsewhere with his lack of speed.
That opens up an interesting question of who’s replacing Krejčí, since the Danish (a rightie normally acting as a right centre back) most likely isn’t. Especially in view of Imanol coming over to provide a dynamic cover for Matěj Ryneš at left wingback (other than that I can’t serve with much insight seeing he’s accrued 525 competitive minutes over the last 365 days per FBref, spare for this fun bit of trivia that could win you a football-themed pub quiz one day), the answer could be Jaroslav Zelený. That’s far from ideal, as he would optimally make way for these two flanking Panák:
Ultimately, the only need remaining for me is something of an attacking no. 8. Lukáš Sadílek perhaps used to be it, but now edges more and more to a deep distributor who’s closer to a no. 6. With Kaan Kairinen in recovery from a broken leg (already in light practice, probably returning earlier than expected), Markus Solbakken also injured towards the end of pre-season and David Pavelka just tagging along for no good reason whatsoever, Sadílek appears to be pushed into a role that fits him the best anyway.
What remains in terms of box-to-box presence in the double pivot, however, is one Qazim Laçi. He’s an energetic, annoying kind of a playmaker who’s a rare breed — I get that — but Sparta should at least be looking at some options. While Slavia reached for Alexandr Bužek and have been pleasantly surprised afterwards, why not do the same with David Tkáč? He’s a far inferior passer, but compensates greatly through battling contributions (also carrying a positive foul differential, the Albanian’s major drawback) and ball progression via runs through the middle.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- First off, some quickfire updates. Tomáš Schánělec has landed in Jablonec after some signals suggested he may stick around, leaving the centre forward deck a little thin. One reaction to that is Indrit Tuci serving exlusively as a centre forward instead of the inside forward (false winger) he was in 2023/24. Jan Mejdr appears to be a newfound option for the RCB role, tested in pre-season, pushing Martin Suchomel up the RWB depth chart. He’s still being lured back by Mladá Boleslav per reports, but Sparta are right to be quite happy with him, trying him out in more of a inverted right wingback role instead of inverted left fullback role which absolutely didn’t suit him north of Prague.
- My model is harsher on goalkeepers than any other roles, I’m finding out, as Peter Vindahl becomes the new Ondřej Kolář. You might remember that the Slavia goalkeeper landed in the 27,6 percentile ahead of 2020 Euro when he was arguably the most in-form Czech GK. In my defence, that was when my model consisted of some very imperfect metrics I have since ditched, meaning the 45,8 percentile reserved for Vindahl is now a more confident reflection of his ability. That said, metrics like high-danger saves or vital non-save interceptions tank his overall percentile greatly when there was no need for those. On the other hand, he did look suspect on 5 conceded goals and his short/mid-range distribution is far inferior to his long-range passes.
- Jan Kuchta has always had some fine deep-lying qualities, but this was the season when he truly come of age flanked by two absolute studs. He came close to top the xA column for the very first time, while returning to the very top of the inside the box xG column after a single down year. Ultimately, he was one of only two centre forwards to land in the 90+ percentile for both xG and xA; the other one being his NT rival Chytil.
- Speaking of the national team, how missed was Matěj Ryneš in Germany? He took a dip sometime in the middle of the season, but recovered fairly impressively towards the end, with his final pizza chart painting a picture of a capable NT candidate. His passing range is second to none among full/wingbacks, and he’s a strong, agile fighter.
Roster battle to follow
Angelo Preciado is, in a way, Sparta’s own Peter Olayinka. The more glistening a stage, the better he gets. His first great league performance came against Plzeň (2:1 victory to cut their winning streak at 6), then he performed pretty much exclusively on the continental scene, picking up 5 points in Europa League and absolutely owning Galatasaray, only to finally re-appear against Ostrava and Mladá Boleslav in R33-34 to help clinch the title through his 3 goal contributions (and 5 wasted chances created).
Somewhere inbetween, he was a high-profile let down in both “S” derbies he opened as a starter, committing a penalty first, getting sent off later.
In the end, it’s shocking to think back and realize how little we’ve seen of Preciado domestically. He nearly featured as much in UEL (761 vs 964 mins). The Ecuadorian was also a reverse Karabec in that he was being saved for only the cream of the domestic crop, completing a measly 180 mins against opponents outside of Top 7. That helps to explain why such a technically adept, dynamic attacking presence appears disappointingly below average in cracking penalty area or expected goals and assists. Friis would be smart to manage his workload a little bit differently this year, re-building his confidence somewhat after seeing a red in consecutive starts.
Of course, Preciado’s heavy usage against top opponents has a lot to do with his backup, the noted sleeper on the back post Tomáš Wiesner. He was right in recently saying the wingback role suits him pretty well — none other gives him so many opportunities to close down the far post cleverly — but he’s nonetheless an unaware, easily exploitable defender. The only defensive discipline he’s consistently performed well are 1-on-1 situations.
I remain high on Wiesner as a ball-carrying merchant who has a knack for delivering a cunning cutback, though. Plus, even Sparta fans often forget he’s basically a free pass on a UEFA roster as a grateful homegrown player.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Okay okay okay. HANG ON. I know… listen to me… I know this looks idiotic. Sparta are never that far off Slavia who celebrate the title in 78 out of 100 simulations. But it’s not our fault. At least not fully. Big part of it is Sparta waiting too long to add the necessary reinforcements. At the time I was providing Jakub with my assessment of who got weaker and who got stronger over the summer (a bit of a subjective factor his objective model could never consider), Sparta were minus title-winning head coach, minus title-winning captain and a set piece cheat code worth plenty of goals, and plus one relative unknown and a bunch of returning loanees. Of course they were assessed harsher than Slavia who’d, at that point, added Chorý, Kinský, Fila, Chaloupek, Prebsl and subtracted only peripheral figures.
Rest assured, I freaked out when I saw the results.
And so we proceeded to do a little bit of experiment. I made up 2-3 reinforcements in my head — something that was advertized just before the deadline with no names bandied around as yet — and turned it into a brand new, purely hypothetical assessment of Sparta’s off season. In that alternative universe, Sparta were adding more than 3 extra points and were already good for a 37% shot at a golden hat trick. Still underwhelming, but much closer to reality. It also needs to be noted that the 66,2 points projected above are a far richer projection compared to last summer’s 62,6 points, yet they give Sparta a lower likelihood of a title defence (27%). This really has got all to do with Slavia who are, quite frankly, long overdue.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/3. Sørensen didn’t even have a shot on Priske’s birthday
The prediction: Sparta score more than 3 times in Round 1 — and Round 1 only
The rationale: Alright, so here’s what appears to be the easier part: putting at least four balls past a goalkeeper who might as well be named Nicolas Šmíd (Viktor Budinský missed the dress rehearsal for an unknown reason and Jan Stejskal was not signed at the time of writing) behind a defence likely featuring an undersized 18-year-old centre back. After all, Sparta did it to Budinský in R3 of 2023/24, too — and to seven other goalkeepers for good measure, including two different ones on the Slovácko books. They know how to do #goalz at Letná, you know. We’ve been through this.
Here’s what makes this a bold prediction regardless: even if a presumably disjointed Sparta explode in Round 1, they can’t do so again the rest of the way. That already feels wild. Even at their most clueless lately — in 2009/10 when they only bagged 1,40 goals per game — they put in two 4-goal efforts. Same goes for 2005/06 or 2006/07, offensively miserable back-to-back campaigns. In 2017/18 — the last time some observers got concerned about the exclusively foreign import like today — Sparta surprisingly didn’t turn in a single 4-goal performance, stopping at 3 goals an agonizing six times.
That also wouldn’t cut it, Mr. Stramaccioni, but thanks for trying.
I didn’t run through all the seasons, but I’m afraid I’d have to go back to 1977/78 — the only time in history Sparta didn’t reach the baseline of one goal per game — to find a perfectly suitable precedent. Go on then!
If you made it here and enjoyed the article, please do consider supporting our work by donating a small amount of money at BuyMeACoffee page. Cheers!
