2024/25 team preview: Bohemians Praha 1905
Last summer in this space, we were reminding ourselves of all the great Bohemians seasons and European adventures as they were about to embark on an unlikely fresh one. This year, there’s nothing of note to talk about. Like literally. With the head coach gone in Germany for much of the summer to enjoy his own personal adventure with Ivan Hašek, and the board mostly dealing with Ďolíček in the background, there’s been a general lack of development on the surface. Bohemians are a quiet place.
Sure, there is a new website to go with a new mobile app or new rules for season ticket holders who either need to pay the stadium a visit or delegate. Those are nice moves but also ones most other top tier clubs had already made years ago. The introduction of Stanislav Hejkal as a high-profile assistant coach, formerly helping Miroslav Koubek out at a Top 6-bound Hradec Králové, was meanwhile guided — above all — by the necessity of having a strong voice in the room while Jaroslav Veselý is absent.
Veselý’s peculiar dual role has been making people uncomfortable all 2024 long. Not his own players, who apparently welcomed a bit of a detox over the March international break per Veselý’s own admission. Not the board, who are seemingly happy to wait till August’s verdict on Hašek’s tenure (expected to be positive with regards to the upcoming WCQ26) to make any sort of a decision or indeed statement. And not the club’s fans either, with the core fan group Green White Fanatics publicly supporting the coach.
But people. Boy, people have been concerned whether it’s OK for Bohemka!
In reality, there are far more pressing concerns for Bohemians supporters. Like the discount retro kit presentation, particularly unsuitable for a club hailing from the capital, or — more seriously — the situation with Ďolíček.
It’s now exactly 10 years since the time it seemed like Bohemians may be evicted from their iconic stadium, with Prague 10’s mayor claiming it is all the municipality’s fault. It’s therefore fairly symbolic that this year appears to be the year when ‘Bohemka’ finally moves towards having a reconstructed stadium — without the municipality’s money on board.
After hearing too many empty promises from them — and hearing out the latest prospect of Ďolíček being far removed from a top priority for the city — Bohemians boss Dariusz Jakubowicz has started plotting a plan how to move forward with self-generated funds. It could take time (and a new lease agreement first), but this is one example of how emancipated top flight clubs can suddenly become with TV rights properly appreciated.
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
Remember when Bohemians scored more goals in total (56) and on average (1,6) than all of Slovácko, Olomouc, Liberec or even Hapal’s Ostrava who got the benefit of playing out the season with bottom 6 opponents (53)? Good times, particularly because ‘Bohemka’ then averaged 1,29 xGF per game (10th) whereas now it was 1,26 xGF (7th) — suddenly enough for the worst attack in the league per the most basic, and important, metric (34).
What’s behind the whopping 22-goal swing? Just an historic combination of two factors — provided finishing and faced goalkeeping — that quite understandably created one super-frustrated Veselý, utterly furious even after a meaningless R33 when Bohemians once again failed to score more than one goal — for already a 25th time, getting shut out 10x in the process — and lost another game at Ďolíček, where they’d earned just 42,9% of goals.
Per the traditional pre-shot expected goals, taking all shots into account, Bohemians were a decent value for nearly 48 strikes. Per the less traditional post-shot expected goals, taking only shots on target into account, they were already good for a measly 38 goals — much closer to their actual total.
That’s exclusively on them.
But as if that somehow wasn’t enough, Bohemians also rank the lowest (or indeed unluckiest) in terms of how many goals they’ve had prevented. The opposing goalkeepers combined for an extra four goals effectively denied.
And that’s how you finally arrive at 34.
Over the four years of doing this, no team has ranked 16th in both of these metrics. There are misfiring outfits and there are frustrated outfits. But pretty much never both at the same time — and certainly never to such an extent. For Veselý, who’s done little wrong, still managing a very annoying side that only perhaps leaned too heavily into crossing, it was a nightmare. While in 2022/23, Bohemians saw 3,9 chances to go wasted per goal scored (2nd highest efficiency), this time around it was 7,3 opportunities (worst).
What went (especially) wrong
Gosh, now I realize the “what went right” section somehow turned “wrong” very quickly, but that’s really the story of Bohemians’ season. When as many as four goalkeeping performances are borderline Top 20 in terms of the best shot stopping efforts over the course of the entire season (Grigar in R2, Rakovan in R11, Janáček in R19, Letáček in R22), while a further five still fit inside the Top 100 (Heča in R4, Bajza in R6, Staněk in R8, Bačkovský in R18, Mikulec in R24)… you kinda just shrug and try to forget about it.
What makes it “good” is the sheer unrepeatability of it all.
Karma should be paying up like crazy in this instance.
At the same time, it’s not like Bohemians have nothing to fix, of course. The finishing part itself is something they’ve actually addressed through the signing of Václav Drchal, once a very effective goalscorer, or Yusuf Helal. Now the focus should arguably turn to defence that has been somewhat shockingly bottom 6 in both Veselý-led campaigns despite remaining stable in personnel and fairly deep in both quantity and quality for a cash-strapped club. ‘Klokani’ once again bled xGA through the middle (0,43 per game, 4th worst rate), gave up the 4th highest average of xGA on set pieces, and couldn’t effectively defend their penalty area, allowing a touch in the box for every 1,40 positional attacks led by the opponents (2nd worst rate).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Matěj Hybš (27th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Michal Reichl (87,5 pct at GK)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Martin Hála
Oof, this is hard. The objectively best candidate is gone (Erik Prekop). The hipster pick is, too (Michal Beran). And the three other members of the Top 5 per my MVP leaderboard are defenders on a not-too-good a defence.
Ultimately, I’ve decided to opt for Lukáš Hůlka whose full-time move into the midfield on 30 March coincided with the first Bohemians victory in eleven rounds (2:0 vs Jablonec, Hůlka on board), with ‘Klokani’ then proceeding to enjoy their best stretch of 2023/24. Spare for the back-to-back “S” duels (which both saw a Hůlka goal, by the way), Bohemians only lost 3/8 xG matchups over the period with the all-important cog in midfield.
I have always found Hůlka a little overrated by his club’s own fans, personally concerned with his frequent mishaps while playing from the back (his 12 losses through misplaced paces leading directly to shot standing out, with an average team “leader” registering only 7 of those) and frequent lack of concentration overall. But these things become less problematic at CDM where Hůlka’s dynamic presence works better.
That being said, I’m still not convinced. Especially since Hůlka seems to be back as a full-time centre back where he wasn’t very reliable in 2023/24.
Instead, perhaps I’d rather go to Jan Matoušek whose MVP-worthy sample just sadly isn’t big enough. The speedster was in good mood before going down injured after the Slavia derby (R13), tormenting Pardubice right out of the gate, Liberec in R3 (5 chances created, 2 finished), Hradec in R6 (3 chances created, 5 finished) or Zlín in R11 (6 chances created, 2 finished). When he returned towards the end of the regular season, Matoušek wasn’t as dominant, but at least added 3 more points to his unlucky autumn total (2). Ultimately, he was involved in 42,6% of all danger (incl. goals) created. His most overwhelming performances I mentioned didn’t fetch him a single point, yet all the same delivered a significant 10 points to Bohemians.
In the fall at least, the saying went “if Matoušek is alright, ‘Klokani’ are too.”
That being said — once more — I’m not convinced. Matoušek was a fine engine, and he’s lately started to work much harder off the ball than used to be his standard, but you can easily see how he was equally as big a part of the problem as he was of the solution. Perhaps even bigger. Once he got into the box, he was pretty awful, connecting on just 12 of 43 actions, hitting the target just twice in 10 high-danger situations per xG (0,15+). That’s very much been the story of his resurgence lately — inspired in transition, anything but later. At the same time, he deserved more than just the sole assist for his 2,14 expected ones; he wasn’t the only let down.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
His goodbye video shot by Jablonec, his boyhood club going back to 2008, carried a hint of an early retirement. Such was the sad tone of it. And frankly, no one would be surprised. It’s already been three years since I tweeted this, commending his breakout; it’s already been three years since Dominik Pleštil was any good. The combination of height and pace was tantalizing. The pass at the end of a progressive run was quite unusual. Pleštil was legitimately one of the most intriguing prospects to ever come out of a Czech provincial club… until he suddenly wasn’t. Soon after the planned move to Bodø/Glimt fell through, freak injuries like torn abs and a series of illnesses — pneumonia quickly followed by the worst-timed case of Covid — started to pile up. Almost exlusively minor issues, but those tank your motivation as well. Especially when you shake loose from an unpopular coach, score in your third start at Teplice, and… out you are.
Pleštil truly needed a fresh challenge (though not sure if this notoriously injury-plagued club is a good pick!) and it’s great he’s got it. But this is also a timely reminder he was never a very young promise; at the time of his breakout, he was already approaching 22nd birthday, making him a signing in the middle of his peak right now. And that peak doesn’t look great.
What’s funny is that Plešil’s breakout was that of a pass-first winger, whereas now his only elite attribute seems to be getting into promising shooting positions. It’s hard to read too much into 991 mins, but Pleštil has never given us much more to work with. Let’s just hope Ďolíček is the place.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @MartMartinec and @ogy_16 for guiding me through the motions of Bohemians’ pre-season
Squad turnover
Eighteen goals on board. That’s what’s left. Eighteen. Courtesy of the horrible attacking output I was describing above, this is actually the lowest percentage retained around the league, with Prekop’s 8 tallies carrying an unreasonable amount of value relative to the rest of the cast. Here, he alone is a difference between 76,5% and 52,9% goals retained; Roman Květ’s 9 goals on 2022/23 Bohemians meant a difference of 16,3% — 7% less.
In terms of minutes lost, ‘Klokani’ are not hurting nearly as significantly. Prekop and Beran will be felt, since they both fit inside Top 4, but Daniel Köstl already may not (9th) and the remaining bunch is a wash; Jedlička was gone by Christmas and David Puškáč endured a thorough down year.
Biggest upgrade
When you don’t even manage to score one goal per game on average, something you could only say about two other Bohemians teams going back a decade, it’s not especially hard to upgrade your strikeforce. And when your all three channels — left, right, centre — actually fit inside the league’s Top 6 per xGF generated from positional attacks, it’s very much mandatory to at least try to improve; which Bohemians by all means have.
While his pizza chart may not seem like it, Abdulla Yusuf Helal is an immediate upgrade on Puškáč’s 2023/24 version. He brings you a ton of value as the ball magnet upfront, winning over half of his aerial duels around/inside the box (while undergoing too many of them — 134), while at the same time not being absent from the box to act as the foremost finisher. This is exceedingly rare; so much so that only two Slavia strikers, Chytil and Tijani, also rank in the top quarter for both metrics at once.
Even bigger upgrade in the making could be Václav Drchal, though, if two conditions are met. First, if he doesn’t come to replace Prekop but rather take up the place of Milan Ristovski. Second, if he re-discovers his own form. I’m used to think of Drchal as someone whose sudden bursts of speed lead to chance after chance (or at least a foul) without much help. I’m also used to think of Drchal as the second most efficient scorer behind only Jan Kuchta, celebrating a non-penalty strike once for every 132 mins.
But that was Drchal of 2020-22. This current one hasn’t scored a meaningful goal since March 2023, bagging a futher four of next to no consequence.
Drchal generally didn’t get to do much inside the box (sum 1,17 xG), which tanks many of his metrics, since he only got presented with four high-danger chances (missing the target in three of those), and despite hitting the target with half of his efforts (7/14), many of which were just weak.
Drchal needs to do better, but he’s back at the place where he’s looked closest to top tier talent, and it really couldn’t be easier to compare to Ristovski whose sole significant qualities concern… running around. He was laughably inefficient in the box, succeeding with just 10 of his 44 actions there, infamously hitting the target with only 4 of his 19 attempts.
Drchal was my biggest downgrade of summer 2023 for Bohemians, yours truly calling him “one of the most presently underrated forwards around”. Now he could be tasked to mitigate this summer’s biggest downgrade…
Biggest downgrade
Erik Prekop isn’t quite the case of a player only getting appreciated once he’s gone, since Bohemians fans are almost unanimously fond of him (as seen in his return to Ďolíček on Matchday 1) and the Baník Ostrava transfer was very much a result of some considerable hype towards the end of the campaign as he picked up seven points since the start of February only, but he still feels like a player who will only get appreciated in a certain context.
For certain things.
A great example is Prekop’s untamed proactivity. Bohemians under Veselý have always relied heavily on sweeping up second balls — and going from there. In that regard, Prekop was invaluable to his former coach, undergoing a frankly insane 6,12 loose ball duels per game. For the sake of comparison, Martin Hála — who also sometimes popped up on the left wing(ish) — engaged in 2,9 loose ball duels per game, and with lower success rate no less. Jan Shejbal, another candidate who has sometimes popped up there in his limited healthy stretches, won 0,86 of such races for a loose ball per game; Prekop gobbled up an extra 1,18 second balls per 90.
Especially after Petr Hronek and Květ left midway through 2022/23, this is but another loss to Bohemians’ signature behaviour off the ball. They were frequent winners of the balls up high, recovering them at a Top 2 rate on team. This campaign’s top duo, Prekop (43) and Beran (58), is now gone too.
Finally, Prekop is hardly replaceable through the sheer annoying nature of his efforts. The attacker basically doesn’t care where he slots in, because he can always battle his way through to the tune of the 6th best rate of high-danger shots taken (18 in total) among regular wingers — and 4th among CAMs. Through duels undergone or fouls drawn, Prekop contributed to 13 chances/goals, getting wrestled down in the final third a record 22 times.
Once again, that’s some concentration of value you’d have to clone Prekop to replicate. He brings vastly unique combination of grit and (adequate) skill.
New kid on the block
In a way, the spirit of this exercise (“new” as in we had not seen him at the top level) is best captured by Vladimír Zeman, homegrown forward/attacking midfielder returning from his first stint in the second-tier, and a pretty successful one with Táborsko, with whom he got the chance to scare Dynamo in the relegation play-off (59 mins for himself).
So far so good, until you realize he turns 24 in September, which… actually makes him the most suitable Bohemians prospect there ever was, so fuck it.
After all, the only more kid-like choice would be 22-year-old Matěj Kadlec.
Matyáš Nechvátal (b. 2007) notably represented Bohemians at this year’s U-17 Euro, even scoring against the hosts from Cyprus, but he’s freaking 17, so there’s no way he gets to feature on the senior level at Bohemians soon enough. He wasn’t there to suck in the atmosphere over the summer, usually a decent pre-requisite of a potential sniff coming up. Right now, his main focus will be on helping U-19s to finally return to the top tier (which they almost managed in 2023/24 as the runners-up with the best defence around), hopefully building on his 293-minute ČFL sample among adults.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
The wingback department definitely looks too thin as of now, regardless of the side. Köstl has effectively been replaced by Adam Kadlec, who’s played his best games further up as opposed to at wide centre back anyway, and that’s potentially an instant upgrade. Firstly, Hůlka or Antonín Křapka are arguably better fits at RCB, complimenting Jan Vondra, the designated middle CB. Secondly, and more to the point, Kadlec could (eventually) look fantastic as a big, menacing body running at you fast with a surprising twist and turn in him, pretty much the mirror image of peak Köstl at that.
Well, mirror. Köstl did have that in him, as well, but didn’t flash it nearly enough, often getting exposed and eventually dropped by Veselý once Martin Dostál got used to his Batman-esque face mask. He was a below-average ball carrier re. meters gained per game in both seasons as RWB.
Perhaps more pertinent, then, is the role of the left wingback. On paper, it might not seem like it. You’ve got the lovely cross of Jan Kovařík on the one hand, and the underrated passer in the form of Martin Dostál on another. After all, Kovařík set up seven goals — 4 ahead of the next most frequent helper — and as many as 6 of them via a cross (2) or set piece delivery (6).
But those numbers can fool a casual observer. Yes, Kovařík was a top contributor in terms of xG+xA, and did recover extremely well on cutbacks (from 44,2 pct to 90) or penalty area entries (from 30,8 pct to 84!), but he was also a virtual black hole in between both boxes, once again showing no appetite to run with the ball (bottom two in 2022-24) and adding little in terms of progressive passing. That takes a whole lot of value away on balance, with Dostál showing the same criminal lack of dynamism at 34 (soon turning a year older). Matoušek, tested in two pre-season games including the dress rehearsal at LWB, could solve at least some of the issues (running/proactivity), but he’s also a major question mark defensively.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- These two veterans’ shortcomings are, luckily, offset to a remarkable (largely unnoticed) extent by Matěj Hybš running the show from LCB. He was lowkey an excellent build-up contributor, cracking the penalty area from open play more often than all centre backs bar two, and also very visible at the back end. That quite often didn’t go in Bohemians’ favour, mind, as he was bypassed/exploited for 34 chances and 5 goals against, but Hybš was still net-neutral (prevented danger 39 times) as opposed to his teammates, standing tall as the premier interception machine in the league (9,65 per game adjusted for possession), contributing 6 vital blocks denying a very probable goal conceded.
- Going by the opener, Bohemians will take a different approach to occupying the role of a withdrawn striker/advanced midfielder, but I’m not sure it’s the right one. As he was leaving the league after 2021/22, Aleš Čermák was a bit of a unicorn — an attacking midfielder who’s equal parts a willing finisher from inside the box and a depth passer — hence someone you want as high up the field as possible. So, utilizing him in a somewhat isolated double pivot seems like a wrong choice, but Veselý shall feel vindicated by the opening victory against a favourite.
- Bohemians may also have two wildcards for that advanced position at the opposite end of the age spectrum. Vojtěch Novák, still a prospect in Bohemians’ books at 22, is coming off a lost season due to injury (actually more of two lost seasons due to an ill-advised loan to Viktoria Žižkov, then a messy relegated second-tier side, beforehand) whereas Martin Hála has been dealing with a problematic Achilles for weeks on end now, missing the entire pre-season and the opener alike. He’s a big loss without getting mentioned much, experiencing a quiet resurrection as an above-average attacking contributor across the board. He graded out 8th for prime offensive output generation and 16th for his ability and tools to gain the danger zone, only neglecting cross-field passes as the sole value dropping below the 50-percentile bar across these two sets of metrics. Here’s a full list of other Ws who are not on Top 3 teams and nonetheless fit inside the Top 16 (of 44) for both areas of one’s game: Kušej, Vodháněl, Ewerton, Petržela. That’s it. Decent company.
Roster battle to follow
I’ll sound more like a smart ass now, following his impressive goal-scoring performance in R1, but the truth is, it’s been coming for Vojtěch Smrž both with regards to (no less impressive) pre-season and his underwhelming fall. Smrž was largely unrecognizable after Bohemians snapped him up as this discarded Hradec star — oh the sweet legacy of Jožka Weber! — owing much to some inevitable rust (remember the season effectively started for him in September only) and team collectively hitting the worst stretch (sorting through an exclusive collection of Top 5 opponents in 8 rounds). Those eight rounds were his first, then Smrž added three more games under his belt before injuring himself seriously, sitting out the whole spring. Veselý was left scrambling, with no established CDM to lean on.
Funnily enough, A) Smrž’s pizza chart still looks OK on balance, B) I’m not sure many people would readily call him “established”. Certainly not vis-à-vis Josef Jindřišek, who was already 37 when Smrž became a regular at Karviná, or even Adam Jánoš, who had made over 110 top flight apperances by that point. They are also more of defensive specialists than Smrž, whose greatest value lies in his varied contributions. He’s a technical duel specialist, basically, whereas Jindřišek can only call upon his advanced positional sense at this point and Jánoš notably doesn’t have a pass in him.
Smrž is therefore a lock — and a steal as long as he’s healthy — but it will be interesting to see who partners him in the double pivot. That’s because both Čermák and Robert Hrubý might require some sturdy carrying.
It’s been more than two years since Hrubý had the legs for this level, seemingly, living a borrowed life at this stage of his career. Still only 30, Hrubý was never the fastest but always a clever navigator at his peak — right now he’s but a solid recipe for getting hemmed inside your own half, not even getting to complete passes in/to the box, in part due to getting crushed in offensive duels (15/57). He’s quite economical in possession, but where he formerly (2021/22) sat neck-and-neck with the elite as a dribbling ball progressor and a cunning penalty box operator, he’s now just the latter — without peforming enough touches there for it to matter (1,13 per game).
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Which Bohemians are for real, the 4th-place sensation or the 13th-place disappointment? As ever with these sorts of questions, the answer lies somewhere inbetween. Not quite in the middle per model, rather closer to 2023/24. Following the fairytale run to the Top 4, the model didn’t go overboard while dishing out a bit of respect; having Bohemians land 9th with 41,2 points. That didn’t quite materialize, but it was close enough — ‘Bohemka’ were 11th after the regular season, just two points off 9th. Their point total, however, was a measly 35 — lagging behind even their winter forecast that had already compromised a ton, taking about 5 points away from their pre-season one and slashing their Top 6 chances by 24%.
Now a repeated Top 6 finish is no longer aspiration, let alone ambition. The important thing is that Bohemians are credited with the exact same likelihood to go down as they are to return to UEFA comps — a slim one.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/3. Puškáč didn’t crawl over the 2000-minute mark
The prediction: David Puškáč will crawl over the 2000-minute mark for once
The rationale: Reichl will at least double his longest clean sheet streak
Coach Veselý made sure to note the “alarming” goalkeeping situation going into the season, lamenting Lukáš Soukup’s fragile body that cannot handle the workload for a longer period and yet another injury to Roman Valeš. Ultimately, the club decided to take Jakub Šiman back at their mercy (initially released as an unused goalkeeping insurance), while through all this, Michal Reichl — pegged to be the no. 1 — seemed strangely overlooked.
To be fair, he can also appear injury-prone, but when healthy, he’s someone the club could — and should — lean on heavily without second guessing.
Now I have my own interest in it, because on his quest to garner more respect from wide public and Bohemians’ coaching staff — who’s unseated him through Martin Jedlička at the start of two consecutive seasons now — Reichl is finally getting his fair share of clean sheets. No, honestly, it’s outright shocking how one of the more consistent goalkeepers in my books (and model’s eyes) cannot hold on even for three straight games. He’s topped out with a clean sheet streak amounting to 2,85 matches (257 mins), and that’s already five years ago while employed by Olomouc. In one year at Hradec Králové, he got stuck just below the 200-minute mark (198), while as many as 19 goalkeepers have turned in a longer streak, including Vilém Fendrich (257; from 24 appearances), Patrik Vízek (251; from just 16 starts) or Jan Hanuš whom I’m sure you didn’t even realize started for HK (5x).
Bohemians are proving to be Reichl’s most miserable stint yet, at least in this regard, since he’s only put together one streak of 166 tidy minutes. There are 28 goalkeepers who’ve done better in the club’s rich history, including some gems like his current backup Valeš (267 mins) or the two-start, two-shutout early 1990s Bohemians career of Karol Belaník (?!).
In fact, there’s just one “worse” goalkeeper fitting on this CSfotbal page.
This is changing. Reichl will at least double his longest Bohemians streak to date, meaning he won’t concede for nearly 4 games (3,68). If Patrik Le Giang could’ve clocked in 455 mins on a wholly mediocre 2020/21 team…
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