2024/25 team preview: FC Baník Ostrava
Ostrava have finally made it. In a typical Baník fashion — unconvincing, frustrated, ultimately uncelebrated — but they have. And now they are opening the doors to the continental stage for the first time since 2010. Back then, it was also a culmination of a turbulent four-year period (7th-3rd-9th-3rd) much like it is now (8th-5th-11th-4th), only that today it’s hard to imagine a follow-up in the form of three consecutive bottom 3 finishes. Although, come to think of it… never say never with Baník.
Of course, while I’m quite proud of the parallels I was able to find on this and last time Sparta were readying to challenge for a golden hat trick, it’s far more difficult to come up with suitable analogies for the two Baník’s.
Back in 2010, it was the last hooray of sorts. As they infamously bumped into Mogilev, Ostrava were still reeling from the last home stand of the previous campaign that saw them lose two points to Mladá Boleslav in the dying seconds, handing the keys to the title to an unbeaten Sparta. Even if Baník then proceeded to beat Příbram on the last matchday, coincidentally on a Michal Frydrych league debut, it wouldn’t matter (they didn’t anyway).
Meanwhile, financial troubles were bubbling under the surface, with Ostrava only barely breathing thanks to some good deals which Pavel Hapal himself had helped to facilitate with his 2005/06 cameo on the bench, further developing Michal Papadopulos and Lukáš Magera, later sold to Germany and Romania, or instantly leaning on 19-year-old František Rajtoral. When Baník bought and sold Matěj Vydra in the blink of an eye in 2010, it all reportedly went through Tomáš Petera’s bank account, as the owner who never cared too much about sporting success finally cashed in.
The academy was suffering, infrastructure was getting neglected (eg. there was no real practice ground) and the initial plans for a move to Vítkovice — Moravian part of Ostrava which Silesian Baník never had anything to do with — were starting to brew in the spring of 2010, only briefly put on hold when mass protests forced investment into a new heating system at Bazaly.
Nowadays, Baník is a financially strong, modern regional brand with a far more popular owner (and billionaire) in Václav Brabec, investing heavily in its external image — the recent switch to Macron, fashionable kit manufacturer, being but the latest demonstration of its forward-thinking. Pavel Hapal nothwithstanding, this is a club fans can fairly easily get behind, seeing tangible progress like the completed Vista training centre.
And now there is a palpable political will to return Baník to Bazaly on top!
Or at least it appears so right now. It is, of course, no coincidence that Ostrava’s mayor, wearing the colours of Prime Minister’s political party, is suddenly very much on board… just over a year removed from the next parliamentary election, and despite no real assurances given regarding the formerly presented issues concerning structural stability of the arena and quality of the bedrock, naturally compromised by Ostrava’s long and rich mining tradition (“Bazaly” originates from “basalt”, igneous rock mined in the area). It’s also not only Bazaly, potentially a 65-million EUR investment itself; the city centre’s skyscraper is getting renovated, while Ostrava’s top flight hockey club is totally getting a new arena, too — for a further 48 mil.
There is a long road ahead even if everything goes according to plan. It is widely expected that obtaining the building permit — tedious process on its own in Czechia — and preparing the project documentation alone could take two years, with the construction works beginning no earlier than in 2027. If Baník do move in by 2030, it shall be considered a small miracle.
For Brabec’s sake, there should be no great rush as he’s on record saying in June he wants to see Baník in Europe three times before the ‘new Bazaly’ are ready to host competitive football. Let’s see how this plan works out…
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
Firstly, allow me to get a little philosophical: there is a widely held belief that Hapal has yet to instill a clear game plan at Baník, failing to arm the team with a recognizable identity that could be considered an advantage. I would suggest the opposite is true and he has done exactly that, perhaps relying on a cute passing game full of interlinks to a fault. In 2020/21, as the route-one ‘Smetana-ball’ replaced the pondering ‘Kozel-ball’, Baník were completing 7,06 crosses in/to the box (2nd highest rate in the league), with the number only marginally dropping in the following Galásek/Smetana-led campaign (6,9). Now they are at 5,7 (7th most) with their deep completed passes shooting up from 5,09 in 2020/21 (13th most) and 5,4 in 2021/22 (12th most) all the way up to the current 9,7 (2nd most). While three years ago Baník almost never attempted to enter the box in possession (doing so at the lowest rate of 2,03 per game), now they are doing so far more often (5 times per game, at the third highest rate).
Of course, this is in part down to individuals like Ewerton, but only in part — Hapal has cultivated this culture of gaining the danger zone in greater control than back in the day when Fleišman was just trying to hit Almási.
This — the “control” part — leads me to what actually went right for Baník. Before Hapal’s arrival, Baník were responsible for 48,6% of xG generated in their matches (good for 8th in the league), right now it’s 52,6% (4th). In terms of positional attacks, they controlled all three channels (left-central-right) at a Top 5 level, even owning the central route more than Slavia (63,5% of xG), whereas in the two seasons prior, they only had one such channel combined (the Fleišman-powered left one in 2021/22). They’ve gone from earning 48,1% of all touches in the box occurring in their games in 2021/22 (again only barely Top 8) to a much more respectable 56,5% (4th). And so on, and so on, and so on. I suppose you could argue this is to be expected from a Top 4 outfit, but it’s anything but a foreglone conclusion for Baník. Remember this was a team that generated the 3rd lowest xGF per game (!) from built up attacks just before Hapal arrived. Now they are elite.
What went (especially) wrong
Since Baník rose back to the top flight in 2017, there had never been a season in which Ostrava earned more points on the road than in their own backyard. And that’s not supposed to be a compliment, since they all the same owned their second-worst home record since getting promoted. Together with a massive rise in average attendance, this effectively means their 2023/24 even record of 5-5-5 was more of a mass let down than their already-awful record of 6-1-8 in Hapal’s first season in Vítkovice. It also means that since 2022/23, even Dynamo České Budějovice — two-time relegation candidate, you may recall — have a higher winning % at home.
There was also something very rotten in front of the opposing goal like last year, only that the main source of frustration shifted. In 2022/23, it was mostly the goalkeepers facing Baník shooters, who collectively robbed them of eight goals relative to expectations (based on prevented goals). This sort of a thing is, largely and famously, outside of one’s team control. In 2023/24, however, Ostrava just plain stopped hitting the target often enough, undershooting their pre-shot xG with their post-shot xG (accounting for placement, power of the shots exclusively put on target) by nearly six goals. That actually makes them bottom three underperformers.
This has a lot to do with Baník’s peculiar penchant for shots from a long distance — once again a result of having Ewerton in the fold, but not only him. Jiří Klíma, for instance, was trying to stun Peter Vindahl from around the half-line in two different games. It legit looked like he had placed a bet. Baník shot from outside the box 255 times in 2023/24 (2nd Slavia only 218 times), with Rigo trying his luck the most (51x) for only 3 expected goals.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Ewerton (2nd in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Tomáš Rigo (97,4 pct at CDM)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Ewerton
Oh captain my captain! It will feel weird for a while, calling Ewerton that, but if it’s going to keep him around for at least a little longer, then be it. For the sake of Baník Ostrava but also a neutral Chance Liga observer. That’s because Ewerton is officially back as a versatile and fun needle-mover. Slavia are not to be convinced and would rather pour more millions into Peter Olayinka, but the entire Ostrava knows what they have in the Brazilian — an unrivalled ball progressor, ball spreader and danger creator.
And when I say “unrivalled”, I mean unrivalled. Ewerton succeeded with a neat 61,8% of his actions in the box, connecting on passes, cutbacks, shots; this metric’s runner-up, Milan Petržela, was happy with his 54,5% success rate. Ewerton charted nearly one accurate cross field pass per 90 mins (0,89 to be precise); extra 0,3 cross field passes per game compared to 3rd Bartošák. Ewerton moved the ball closer to the opponent’s goal by 26,02 meters for every loss he committed; beating 2nd Kopic by over two meters. Per Statsbomb, there was a gulf of twenty three open-play key passes between Ewerton as the league’s leader with 69 and the next best player.
Ewerton’s MVP case gets only stronger when you zero in on his own team, and incorporate some of the more traditional statistics. He bagged by far the biggest amount of important goals (9 vs 5), contributed to a whopping 33 goals (62,3% of the total; the next most involved player, Filip Kubala, was at 48,3%), and received the most team of the week nominations, too (14 vs 10). In terms of primary chance-creating, his season total of 35 beat even that of Birmančević (32), let alone the second best teammate (18). In the end, Ewerton sourced 2076 MVP points per my model; David Buchta, his closest rival, didn’t even reach half of the total. ‘Ewe’ was in his own league.
It goes without saying that a potential loss of Ewerton’s transcending skill — more of a matter of “how soon” than “whether” — would cause a lot of immediate damage, but I must say I’m intrigued by the prospect of Erik Prekop stepping in his gigantic shoes. He’s obviously a much less elegant player, but one who finds his way through at a very good rate regardless.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
It is becoming an evergreen. Early in 2022/23, Karel Pojezný took the fall for back-to-back home losses to inferior opponents (Teplice, Brno), sitting out the next five matches. Early this spring, he was effectively dropped twice, first as a result of a disastrous three-game spell involving the 0:3 loss to České Budějovice, and shortly after as a result of another uninspired loss to Olomouc (1:2) when he was easily the team’s most reliable defender. It’s not like there was never a merit — the first 2024 sacrifice was somewhat well deserved after he very much sucked against both Slavia and Plzeň — but it’s always felt like the leash is much shorter with Pojezný than others.
This has, in a way, created a hype so vast Pojezný doesn’t deserve it. Sometimes, one’s prolonged absence throughout a poor run of form today retroactively creates an image of a much better yesterday, which is very much a case of Pojezný whose defensive underlying numbers leave a lot to be desired. But sometimes, the upside is indeed so high — and so uncompensated for otherwise — the craving is nonetheless warranted.
I myself am a big fan, propping Pojezný up as a suitable Sparta target, but also never forgetting to mention he would still be a bit of a project for them. Baník should, in theory, be able to afford more patience with a guy who’s tall and aerially dominant, yet at the same time a dynamic presence on the ball and a rare bread of centre back who gains the attacking zone for you on his own. Pojezný creatively contributed to as many chances/goals per game as Krejčí (there are more similarities) and cracked the opponent’s penalty area from open play at a higher rate than Michal Kadlec or Dweh.
The cards could hardly be laid out any more in his favour, too. Matěj Chaluš arrived short on fitness and won’t ever be considered his direct rival due to a historically non-existent value added inside the attacking half. Pojezný’s immediate competition, David Lischka, meanwhile endured something of a rough season (putting in 14 shifts where he was more part of the problem than a solution) where he didn’t do much in terms of helping Baník reach the penalty box (0,42 successful entries turned 0,24) and remained a non-factor when it came to build-up contributions via passing or dribbling. On top of that, he himself entered the off-season injured from last campaign.
Generally, Lischka and Chaluš are not a bad fit together, probably finding a way how to adequately complement each other stylistically, but they might easily prove to be most definitely incompatible as two slower centre halves. Covering pace has always been one of Pojezný’s calling cards, meanwhile.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @homor1922, @KrenekHonza93, @Maassive1922, @JanWoska, @Boler76280423, @IamTHEDannyP and @MiroslavSilak for guiding me through the motions of Baník’s pre-season
Squad turnover
One specific difference between this summer and the last preceding one which saw Baník readying for a European campaign is that back in 2010, Ostrava added eight senior players over the summer, including the entire young backbone of 10th-place Příbram (Fantiš, Smejkal, Pilík and Hušbauer). Now they also added a former Příbram stalwart (Chaluš) and at least tried for another one (Hlavatý), but otherwise just fiddled around the edges. They also didn’t need to do much more, since up until a certain point, they were comfortably keeping all 11 most used players (together with only Slavia), retaining 3rd most minutes, while cutting 7 pieces that could more or less qualify as deadwood and two defenders who were quite close to feeling like additions by subtraction (Blažek and Ndefe). Good stuff.
And then the bombshell landed.
Most Baník fans still remember clubs from Top 5 leagues taking an interest in Ostrava-based players, but not like this. Jiří Letáček is a story for the ages. His first impression was awful — nearly single-handedly eliminating Baník in the 2nd round of domestic cup at the hands of a second-tier Kroměříž (3 goals conceded). He had to wait 6 months for his first league action… and has never looked back, keeping a clean sheet on his debut. Even now, though, we are still talking about a 25-year-old goalkeeper who wasn’t unequivocally considered a star; a description that doesn’t match any of the previous Baník foreign exports like Galásek, Jankulovski, Heinz, Svěrkoš or Baroš. Vydra probably comes the closest in nature — since he also barely established himself at Baník — but he was a teen sensation.
Since I’m not quite ready to mark the Letáček departure as a particular downgrade — because I’m higher-than-most on both Jakub Markovič and Dominik Holec and arguably lower-than-most on Letáček himself — I’m also going to use this space to share his pizza chart that is mostly impressive in one respect encompassing all four different areas of the game: Letáček was extremely dependable in 2023/24 (unlike at Pardubice). Only top quality shots tended to beat him, he was tagged as responsible for just 2 conceded goals by yours truly, and was very reliable when coming far out of goal.
Biggest upgrade
In terms of the usual starting XI, there were no glaring holes to fix. Sure, you could easily upgrade the right back, but not at a discount. There are many better right wings in EU, but not a single affordable one in Czechia. For the centre back position, you mostly just want to see internal growth. There was no Kaloč or Mišković standing out as an obvious drag.
At the same time, Baník’s painfully obvious weakness was the depth, especially out wide and on the left where the occasional Šehić-for-Ewerton swap made for the steepest downhill in terms of talent there was in F:LIGA. Enter Daniel Holzer, an 11,6-percentile winger who nevertheless feels like an upgrade. He’s on a bit of a Milan Petržela-esque trajectory in that his game appears to be more poised the closer he is to retirement, and was legitimately one of the key man at Europe-bound Slovácko in 2021-23, but…
Coupled with his complicated past with Baník fans (described by himself here), Holzer is certainly not the most straightforward — and a little bit awkward — signing, but one whose versatility could prove valuable (he often deputized at left back for injured Merchas Doski in 2023/24 — and that backup was also missing). He’s just a year removed from landing in the top quarter of wingers for chance/goal creation for the second time in a row.
As for the right-hand side, let’s see whether Matej Rusnák can be anything more than a straight-line dribbler, and if Michal Fukala can finally figure it out as a defensive specialist who, erm, doesn’t look too special on defence.
At the very least, the son of nearby Frýdek-Místek is still only entering his peak whereas Gigli Ndefe is a sneaky 30something (am I the only one who still can’t believe he’s that old?), but I do have some lasting reservations especially around his movement when Fukala often looks like a hockey player chasing a tram in all his gear. His top speed won’t be too bad, but his acceleration very much appears so, allowing Wale Musa Alli to utterly own him. I’d suggest to buy Alli just to avoid any repeat of such a mismatch.
Biggest downgrade
This is going to be a fascinating one. I’m sure Baník fans are not shedding a single tear for Filip Blažek, instead appreciating he was sold and not just let go, but I am here to issue a slight pushback. The Slovak made some very bad decisions, including the two high-profile mistakes against Sparta that made the whole country notice him, but he isn’t altogether a bad defender. In fact, it’s almost a certainty his many targeted clearances and interceptions will be missed dearly, since no one — including Chaluš, who’s actually the worst one — came even close to his double 90-pct placement.
That said, of course I am not confident in Blažek actually constituting a downgrade. With him on the pitch, Baník conceded goals (1,59 vs 1,19) and chances (11,05 vs 9,50) at a far higher rate, which likely isn’t an accident. He was skinned 1-on-1 far too often for a centre back and never seemed too comfortable next to Lischka in a back four, let alone as a wide CB in a back three (outright an idiotic idea to even try him in that role, with his passing).
New kid on the block
After two consecutive Top 4 finishes without the sweet prize in the form of a promotion, Baník’s B-team could also collectively exclaim “finally” just as the first-team did so with regards to qualifying for continental football. That could — or should — mean good news for Ostrava’s youngsters who will be counted on to carry the second-tier outfit much like those at Sparta or Slavia before. The club immediately proceeded to sign U-21 players specifically for the use of their reserves; most notably and interestingly scouring the Dutch market to bring in midfielder Sacha Komljenovic (b. 2003) from ADO Den Haag, sneakily a candidate to get promoted given the realtive positional need I’ll get to later on, and centre back Luuk Kluiters (b. 2003), formerly of Alkmaar with a fresh experience from Lille in France.
These players, along with Samuel Grygar or Radim Šudák who are mostly considered parts of the first-team already, will receive decent education from head coach Josef Dvorník who achieved the promotion at first try by utilizing a progressive brand of football, building up from the back. It was the board who kind of tried to force him through to Hapal’s backroom staff, causing a bit of a drama when Dvorník effectively declined the “promotion” to the role of a mere water-carrier for the notoriously independent Hapal.
One player Dvorník may mostly need to do without is Uchenna, a late 2003 birthday, who had already received some A-team vibe towards the end of last term. There was no minute to be spared, it turned out, but that should change this season, even if Hapal will likely resist the temptation of switching to a back three — only utilized in the first half of the last friendly.
Uchenna is a dominant header of the ball in both penalty areas, and can mask some of his positional and tactical deficiencies with a solid recovery pace as well as strength. Uchenna complements his physicality with some decent ball-playing ability, not minding both feet, though he can misplace a pass in a heartbeat too, and sometimes appears overly motivated. For a foreigner, he’s actually a pretty talkative organizer, @MiroslavSilak notes.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
At last, Baník Ostrava have confirmed the signing of Raymond Nogha (b. 2004), who’s received substantial minutes at Hyský’s modern-looking Vlašim as both a centre back (in a limited 2022/23 sample) and a deep-sitting holding midfielder (as a 2023/24 mainstay). The latter is exactly the profile Ostrava need right now, which shows some more clever targeting, but I’m not necessarily sure whether it’s a ready made fix. More likely scenario, it appears, would be for Nogha to start as a B-team fixture.
But Baník need a solution right now, for two major reasons.
One is the fact they sometimes need an insurance in the centre of the park. Jiří Boula and Tomáš Rigo are two extremely gifted and actually even complex footballers, but they are untameable elements, covering a lot of space, willingly pushing up, and ultimately leaving acres of free space to exploit. It’s no coincidence Baník allowed the most xGA from counter-attacks per game (0,18), also allowing the 2nd most counters to develop. They can be effective agents of chaos, make no mistake, with both Rigo and Boula making for two of the most instinctive, prompt passers around. But it goes both ways, and Baník can hardly afford the two-way street at all times.
Tied to this is also the dilemma of… should Baník even want Tomáš Rigo to act like a defensive midfielder, or in other words, to qualify for my CDM model at all? He’s probably best suited to fill the role of someone like Ondrej Duda for Slovakia, the more attacking of the two no. 8s. It’s obviously difficult to find a Stanislav Lobotka, but it wouldn’t hurt trying, especially with the stated ambition of becoming a UEFA staple — ditching one of the many second strikers for an extra C(D)M could be wise there.
And then there’s the small matter of allowing Matěj Šín to flourish, something Hapal should arguably pay more attention as he proceeds, too. Right now, Šín is almost by default a first alternative for Rigo’s role in the double pivot, which is even more of a waste of his potential than Rigo’s. Šín is very much a unicorn in that he loves a through ball, generally progresses play at a fine rate, but all the while remains a very efficient high operator — be it through costly turnovers forced in the final third or high-danger shots.
You’d ideally want Šín in the hole — where he’s asked to compete with a seemingly limitless band of above average brothers in their mid/late 20s, from Prekop through Kubala all the way to Jiří Klíma. I worry there’s a serious threat of Šín, named alternate captain at 20, growing suffocated.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Whenever we discuss the issue of a lacking holding midfielder who could underpin the build-up of our national team, the name of Jiří Boula tends to fall through the cracks when, in reality, it comes close to the most suitable one. He is no Lukáš Kalvach, but he’s in a perfect age bracket (25) and one fantastic teammate-spotter. In the “ball spreading & progression” set of four metrics, Rigo grades out as the best with an average percentile of 88,8. Kalvach follows with 87,5. And Boula rounds out the Top 3 with 85,5. We would be splitting hair calling one of these three better than the other; they are all game-shifting passers.
- One common takeaway from the depth chart above might be that it’s all quite predictable. After all, Baník were one of the more rigid outfits around ever since Rigo and Buchta settled into the starting XI in September. But don’t get too comfortable — Hapal wants you to think otherwise. How else to explain the fact that the penultimate friendly was played in a 4x30min format, while the dress rehearsal saw Hapal change the entire team as well as formation at half-time. While last summer, Ostrava players enjoyed a long vacation and scrambled for fitness, this year was a polar opposite per Mirek’s observation, with Baník feeling some heavy legs early on, stumbling to a shocking four losses out of four preparation games played out in Opalenica, Poland.
- A year ago in this space, I noted that David Buchta “needs a big year”. Somehow, he’s delivered it, setting career highs in goals, assists and points, while earning substantial TotW love along the way (shortlisted 10 times). I too was having fun watching him all engaged, as one of the most avid performers of give-and-go’s, my favourite football trick. Yet, that particular trick also appears to be his only elite skill in the arsenal, with Buchta eventually once again falling short of any real explosion. Can he ever be more than a keen, skilled, single-minded box attacker?
- Also featured as part of my 2023 “random notes”, I’m here to once again highlight Jan Juroška AKA the foremost attacking specialist among fullbacks. He was once again a tremendous ball progressor (almost never given the credit he deserves) and a brutal liability at the back end. It will be interesting to see how his reunion with Michal Šmarda, newly appointed Hapal’s assistant who was also Juroška’s (reportedly unpopular per Liga Naruby) assistant coach at Slovácko in 2018-20, goes.
Roster battle to follow
Baník are clearly stacked upfront, which creates not one, but at least two mini-duels to follow. There is the high-profile pair of Filip Kubala and Abdullahi Tanko, both getting fed over 20 full starts, both disappointing in their own ways (finishing in the case of Kubala, discipline in the case of Tanko), and both starring as dynamic, versatile penalty area infiltrators.
Tanko was always on the move, freeing space for others and creating openings for himself. He was also a lucky finisher benefitting from some sub-par goalkeeping. Kubala, on the other hand, capably connects the dots through clever flicks, feeling the flow of the game at an elite level. He was also snakebitten, hitting the woodwork 4 times, denied about 7 extra goals.
And then there’s a pair of attacking options who received much less looks than the two above, but shouldn’t be treated as afterthoughts regardless. Jiří Klíma should, at this point, only be considered as a second striker since he’s a frequent let down in the box, succeeding with only 11/45 of his actions in the box. Quadri Adediran isn’t much better at that, but especially comes up short as a critically indisciplined forward. If you thought Tanko is always offside (0,8 times per game), then Adediran pockets him with 1,36 times. If Tanko bothers you with frequent fouling (differential of minus-18), then be ready to get frustrated over Adediran who clocks in at minus-29.
These might appear to be small things, but smarts and off-the-ball behaviour is a fundamental part of Baník striker’s job description, and precisely Adediran being so poor in those areas made me tweet this.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
What one breakthrough can do to you. Ostrava were not fancied to make UEFA competitions by the understandably tired model last summer, earning just a 26% probability, whereas now they jump all the way to 58%. No extra slot for a Czech club plays a role in this spike, just plain year-over-year progress by Baník to the tune of 3,7 points. It’s worth noting that for all the recent drama, Ostrava have actually been a fairly consistent regular-season participant who’s a fairly safe bet to earn around 45 points. The model projects the same to happen in over 62% of simulations, even seeing a two-percent chance that Baník hits the unlikely 60-point target, which they’ve only ever reached as serious title contenders in 2009/10 (60), 2003/04 (63) and 1988/89 (61 if three points were assigned for a win) — and never in the golden era of 1978-83. It wouldn’t be a modest goal for now.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/3. Kubala didn’t enjoy a multi-point Ostrava return
The prediction: Hapal will mirror Koubek’s early firing in 2010
The rationale: Simply just predicting that Hapal will be fired at some point in 2024/25 would hardly be bold, since his seat has been hot for so long it’s basically a lava stone by now. But to have him fail the same way as the last Europe-bound Ostrava manager? Oh yes, that is already spicy enough.
Inspired by one of my respondents, @Maassive1922, I am indeed claiming Hapal will last exactly 13 league games in the job, getting fired soon after the October international break. What makes it even more juicy, is the fact Hapal bumps into Miroslav Koubek himself in Round 12 in what will already be a 5th very demanding home stand of the season (following Jablonec, Hradec Králové, Liberec, Slavia and České Budějovice — the sole potential walkover, I’m guessing). I’d expect a hammering by Plzeň, and then a disappointing draw in Pardubice which serves as the last straw.
Koubek went 3–3–7 out of the gate in 2010.
I think Hapal will do better, but perhaps with less patience upstairs…
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