2024/25 team preview: FC Slovan Liberec
Last year, I opted to open the preview series with Teplice, a club with fresh identity, fresh outlook. Boom, jump by four spots. This year, it only feels fitting to open with Slovan Liberec, a club that could hardly be fresher and actually turns 66 just today, if you’re counting the modern-day Slovan. New owner, new logo, new board, new coach, new content. Teplice on steroids, basically. If they were to now jump by four spots, it’d line up exactly with the ownership’s proclaimed goal of Top 5 finish. So will they?
It feels like this is truly the most seismic, inherently positive shift any club has undergone top-to-bottom over one summer. At least in recent memory.
Gone is the most successful owner in the club’s history. Ludvík Karl took over Slovan and basically saved it financially in mid-90s even though the club was a sporting success ever since getting promoted in 1993. In the end, he’s overseen three titles (and first by a non-capital club since 1986), two domestic cup triumphs and a pair of agonizing near misses in getting to the Champions League proper (one near upset of AC Milan in 2002, one Moscow heartbreak just 12 minutes before the end in 2006). Gone is also the second-longest tenured coach in the club’s history. Luboš Kozel is far from winningest ever, in fact slotting in just ahead of the divisive Zsolt Hornyák with 34,8% winning percentage, and his sulking towards the end of the season left a sour taste in plenty of fans’ mouths, but he’s done alright in difficult financial conditions and gave the careers of Christian Frýdek, Marios Pourzitidis, Ahmad Ghali or Victor Olatunji a new life.
Insert 4 iconic names of the club’s modern era, combining to remind the fans of 4 major milestones of the century. Radoslav Kováč, the celebrated coaching arrival from Pardubice, wore the captain’s armband when Slovan made it out of a European competition’s group stage for the only time in four tries. Jan Nezmar, who had assembled the internationally acclaimed squads of 2012-17, was Liberec’s top scorer during the previous famous continental run, notching 5 goals on the way to the UEFA Cup quarter-final in 2002; curiously the only time Liberec got to bow out from the European stage as the last Czech representative, even if just one day after Sparta.
Miroslav Holeňák, now taking on the role of Kováč’s assistant despite boasting a substantial (and reasonably successful) head coaching CV, was the game-changing signing of that Slovan period, winning the title in his first full season at the club (also 2001/02). He was later a captain, too, bridging the gap between the second title, bizarrely falling right in the year (2006) when both Holeňák and Nezmar were gone for brief stints elsewhere, and the third one (2011/12) which catapulted certain Theo Gebre Selassie all the way to the Bundesliga. During that season, of course, ‘TGS’ was also the right-hand of Nezmar — by then striker turned defender.
In a way, they are the Four Musketeers coming together. Even if fans may have had different ideas, three of them (bar Kováč whose stint was great but only 15 months long) fit in the all-time Slovan Dream Team announced by the league itself on the 9̶3̶r̶d̶ 25th anniversary of the domestic top flight. Even some Prague citizens now wake up to dashing billboards featuring a trio of them — Nezmar, overseeing scouting, transfers and setting the club’s overall sporting vision as the general manager; Gebre Selassie, hands-on sporting manager taking phone calls from former national team mate Rosický (et co.) upstairs and participating in matches/trainings downstairs; and finally Kováč, professional head coach and semi-professional model.
It’s only fitting, then, that these are also the guys shouldering the newfound, higher-than-ever expectations from a true new era brought about by one of the most successful Czech entrepreneurs, Ondřej Kania, who made the prestigious Forbes’ European 30 Under 30 list in 2019, and just saw his international group Consilium, spanning 10 schools across 3 countries, join the premier British network of private schools, Dukes Education, listing around 20.000 students in 5 countries. He’s the ultimate Czech business success story, already making waves — and now trying to make a splash — in the notoriously unprofitable footballing industry.
The inevitable question whether he can do it and potentially bring Champions League to Liberec like he’s promised, and whether he’s hired the right people to help him achieve that ambition (first Top 4 finish since 2016 more immediately), has no answer now. And won’t have for a while.
Whether he’s moving the club in the right direction, that part has already been answered rather emphatically. Where Karl would no longer be seen in the stands at matches (understandable for his age), the new owner has already sat down for multiple Q&As and frequently engages with fans on X, as well (also understandable for his age, I suppose). One appears to be on an “expiring contract” at the start of a season, not midway through it. Pre-season friendlies are streamed with a commentary, behind the scenes videos are shot, news are routinely communicated. All previously unheard of in Liberec. Attendances are to be counted and reported properly, whereas previously total were sometimes made up to bump the numbers artificially. The aggressive marketing strategy is already working the treat in terms of exorcising the demons of apathy from the old passionate fandom, with Kania estimating 70-100% increase in sold season tickets, while the youngest (and potentially new) fans have Agraelus — popular gaming streamer, I’m told, hired as the club’s ambassador — to engage with.
Kania is, understandably, tempering the expectations. The “Welcome to Wrexham”-inspired documentary is only getting released in December 2025 (ish), by which point the articulate owner is forecasting the biggest spike in interest from potential investors (even though he expects the sponsporship income to double this season already, per latest Q&A). The squad itself may be peaking in “two, perhaps three” years. It makes sense.
At the same time, with Miroslav Pelta getting another lifeline nextdoors…
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
It resulted in another sub-par league finish (9th), but credit where credit is due: Luboš Kozel did, eventually, achieve some progress. In his first incomplete season, he only managed to lift the team up on surface; underneath, Slovan ranked 12th in non-penalty goals, 14th in expected goals, and 15th (!) in expected goals excluding penalties. In his second (and first full) season, the rankings read an unspectacular but solid 7th, 10th and 8th. In 2023/24, there was a legitimate Top 4 team bubbling underneath; its non-penalty goal share over 3 percentage points better than that of Mladá Boleslav (ranked 5th), its non-penalty expected goal share beating even Baník Ostrava (ranked 4th) and doing nearly 5% better than Boleslav.
The thing about shares, though, is that the defensive and attacking phases of the game contribute equally, and in Slovan’s case, it was the defence — owing much to Kozel’s predecessor’s work — doing all the heavy-lifting.
Slovan were great in defending counter attacks, with only a third of them resulting in a shot (1st). They were particularly great in preventing threat built through the middle, only allowing 0,22 xGA per game down this busiest channel (1st). Generally, they only saw 22,3% of positional attacks finished off against them (1st), ending up with a non-penalty xGA on par with Plzeň (3rd). One would think there was nothing to worry about…
What went (especially) wrong
… only to realize Slovan ended up with the worst defence in the club’s top flight history per the most important metric of all: goals actually conceded. Their 50 goals work out to an average of 1,56 per game which beats the previous low points hit in two different eras, in 1994/95 and 2013/14 (1,53). This, together with one victory away, is a real historic scar on Kozel’s adieu.
This, of course, owns a damn lot to everything that happened outside of open play which the above-mentioned excellent numbers refer to. Liberec conceded a league-leading 8 penalty goals, and was once again brutal on other set pieces, too, bleeding 21 extra times per official league website. Per my notes, 9 goals were a direct result of corners, on par with league-worst Jablonec and Budějovice whose season ended three rounds later. It’s going to be fascinating to watch Kováč try to repair this particular ailment, seeing that his Pardubice were awful on corners both seasons, now allowing 2,7 corner shots per game (league worst; by half a goal per game), unable to successfully defend 42,2% corners (also league worst; by ca. 5%).
Funnily enough, per underlying numbers, attacking corners were a far bigger issue for Slovan, in fact, with the team only getting at the end of 20,5% deliveries (league-worst record). Slovan was just a confusing bunch.
What wasn’t all that confusing about Kozel’s last season in charge was the overwhelming sense of lethargy. Liberec once again put together two 5-game winless streaks, and once again didn’t seem to care on too many occasions. Pushing Slavia to the brink and completely outplaying Plzeň in back-to-back home games was nice enough, but how does it matter when you literally win as many games against Top 6 as you do against the rest (5)? Slovan concluded the season with a staggering 5-7-8 record against the 9 teams that sat below them after 30 rounds, with their best xG performance of the whole campaign (+1,53) still seeing them concede 3 times from Zlín.
If Liberec fans felt the team generally lacked intensity, it wasn’t just a feeling, by the way. This is a team that dropped wildly in the PPDA metric (opposition passes completed per defensive action) to 15th place, while Statsbomb’s aggression metric places them at the absolute bottom of the table, with only 16% of opponent’s pass receipts getting tackled, fouled or pressured within 2 seconds. On the whole, when Ľubomír Tupta — the Czech top flight’s own Alexander Ovechkin — appears to be your most effective winner of the ball in the final third, you have a problem. With Christian Frýdek out for most of the season, his right-central area was a literal black hole as far as defensive activity goes, per this visualization.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Ľubomír Tupta (30th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Marios Pourzitidis (86,1 pct at CB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Dominik Preisler
Ľubomír Tupta doesn’t have a weak case either, in fact he would’ve been my pick halfway through the season when he already had 13 of his 18 goal contributions in the bag. Even at the season’s end, he stood tall league-wide as both a premier ball carrier (and progressor at that) and one of the more efficient attacking box operators who doesn’t miss the target often and holds his own as a decent set-up guy who’s all the same self-sufficient.
But when it came to fighting for a Top 6 placement, he very much became a symbol — or extension, if you will — of Kozel’s apparent lack of enthusiasm.
Meanwhile, in stepped Tupta’s frequent partner Luka Kulenović, powering Liberec past Plzeň and Slovácko in another back-to-back surge that promised so much more than what it delivered on the follow-up. All in all, 6 of his 7 goals came against the Top 6, and he was unstoppable towards the end of the season, forcing the new Slovan ownership into slapping a once-outrageous 50-million (€2 million) pricetag on the Canada-born Croat.
‘LukaKu’ was even better than Tupta in terms of expected assists and had more successful actions in the attacking box per 90 mins than him (1,77 vs 1,51), and where Tupta ranked 7th league-wide as a box attacker, Kulenović actually grades out as the 4th best deep-lying forward/target man — only trailing Chytil, Kuchta and Chorý, a trio of Czech national team forwards. Indeed, there were very few — if any — striking duos whose skillsets mesh together better. While Tupta often acts as a false winger, dropping deep on the left, Kulenović is a clever right-leaning high operator and aerial duel target, very strong holding onto balls and superb in involving teammates (0,81 primary chance-creating actions is a top notch rate for a forward, right on par with Kuchta’s 0,84 and far exceeding Olatunji’s 0,68 last term).
If Tupta leaves during this summer transfer window already, like Kania strongly suspects (saying it’s more likely than not on 05/07), then it’s a problem — especially since there’s no ready-made replacement. Slovan would likely ditch 3-4-1-2/3-4-3 and go with two technical attacking midfielders, Višinský/Hlavatý and Frýdek, below one Kulenović instead.
Of course, it’s not like Kulenović doesn’t have his flaws as well: he’s surprisingly ineffective as a defender for a smart-moving attacker, fouling a lot and recovering 19 balls less than Tupta, while his finishing left a lot to be desired. On the other hand, he was one of the unluckiest finishers, hitting the woodwork 4 times, plus getting famously frustrated by a fantastic Staněk. He’d definitely gotten better in front of the goal as season progressed, and since his pre-season hamstring injury doesn’t sound too serious, I suspect he might rattle off a few strikes early on for a change.
Lastly, let me mention one thing: Kulenović is as close to a complete centre forward as first-year FORTUNA:LIGA strikers go. It’s not easy getting used to the physical nature of our game, and ‘LukaKu’ has taken everything in his stride from that standpoint. Thus, I couldn’t bear seeing the numerous reactions by Slavia fans suggesting he’s just another red-hot half-a-year marvel who’s actually average. Kulenović doesn’t deserve that tag; it might have been early, but he’s a deal far more real than Muhamed Tijani was.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
I tend to look for seasoned servants of the club in question for this section, but here it’s not hard to make an exception. That’s because it’s not hard to think of the Michal Hlavatý transfer as the biggest flex Slovan have ever pulled. At the reported 20 mil. CZK including bonuses, it’s not the most expensive; Miroslav Slepička would’ve now cost nearly 30 mil. accounting for inflation (15 mil. was commonly reported back in early 2002), and Jan Polák would be doubling Hlavatý’s value today with his then-reported 20-22 mil. pricetag. But context matters, and this is certainly the most statement-like signing of them all. Slepička had only started 3 top flight games and never scored in 19 appearances when Slovan broke the bank for his signature; Polák was a two-time Euro U-21 medalist and occasional senior international already approaching his 100th top flight start at 21, sure, but he was also coming off a down season with his hometown Brno where a serious shoulder injury made him more of a regular/sub than a nailed-on starter. In short, Slepička was coming over to realize his potential, Polák was aiming to kick-start his still-young but somewhat stagnating career, Hlavatý is here to be the star from Day 1 — at the height of his powers.
See the difference? Feel the pressure?
In an ideal world where we are able to appreciate central midfielders who don’t put up a ton of points, Hlavatý would have never been ditched by Plzeň with such ease, and would now be considered the foremost face of the league. In the analytics world that doesn’t mind Hlavatý’s limited point return (his seven important points picked up in close game states, by the way, top the returns of the likes of Haraslín or Ševčík, just to be fair and square) as long as he fills in the role he’s assigned to, the blonde phenom already is the star of the show, and an absolute steal for a 9th-place club.
In 2021/22, there were six metrics on our 16-metric pizza chart that made Hlavatý look like a below-average player. Last year, it was five. In 2023/24, he wasn’t above average in just two — action in the box success rate and high-danger shot rate. That neatly strikes pretty much the only possible reservation one could have about Hlavatý; the unsure way he attacks the box and contributes in the final third. But with Denis Višinský and Tupta still on board, Hlavatý will have a different job — and he’s not failing in it.
Next to Marek Icha, the lanky passer, and below the main line of attack, in what could easily look more like a 3-4-3 than a 3-4-1-2, Hlavatý will be mostly responsible for pushing the play in all kinds of directions, recognizing when to step up and when to step back, when to hold and when to release, ie. all the areas of play he’s long excelled in. Hlavatý is one of the most press-resistant players in the league, capable of swiftly escaping a tackle horizontally and navigating crowded areas vertically. He battles on the ball, he presses off the ball. For that reason, there are times when he can look gassed pretty early (particularly in “English weeks”), but his stamina is enviable nonetheless. In his versatility on the ball and general consistency, he consistutes a major middle third upgrade on Jan Žambůrek, plus mitigates the huge dependence on Christian Frýdek.
In fact, somewhat laughably for his hype and pedigree, there is not a single area of the game in which Žambůrek had the upper hand on Hlavatý in 23/24. Not a single one. He’s arguably a better problem solver in the final third, but that wasn’t a huge advantage last term with the limited platform to actually get forward (especially in the wake of Lukáš Červ departure). Only Patrik Čavoš cracked the penalty area from open play at a lower rate; and he’s barely a CAM. When he did pop up there in possession, Žambůrek had the joint-6th lowest success rate in doing anything of note (11/33). He doesn’t possess a cross at all, and while he’s a cute and prompt passer, he doesn’t flash that skill nearly enough to compensate. Filling out a taller frame than Hlavatý, he’s also seemingly far easier to get pushed around.
Regardless, many Liberec fans seemed quite happy with Žambůrek. If that was the case, they are bound to be plain salivating over Hlavatý, who’s delivered an astonishing 11 performances in which he created 3+ chances; one of those (5) coming against Slovan in R5. Žambůrek enjoyed 3 of those.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @KdysiUNisy, @SvenViggen, @SlovanOnTop, @klappe19, @prochyss39, @33metalliza, @GuardiolaLBC and @jakub_svoboda for guiding me through the motions of Liberec’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Ten confirmed arrivals and up to four pending ones will inevitably cause an earthquake. It’s not that Liberec would just be plugging holes — quite the opposite, they are rather doubling up on central midfield positions — but they are still retaining the 3rd least minutes only after Pardubice and České Budějovice, and over 10% less mins than around the same time last year.
One important caveat: this is with Tupta and Frýdek accounted for. With them still on board, Liberec are at least keeping over 70% of all 2023/24 goal contributions (goals, assists and indirect contributions) and over 65% of all MVP points picked up by Slovan players per my model. Have them drop out, and you’re looking at a measly 47% and 47,5% respectively. Tupta and Frýdek together combined for 27 goal contributions, while the former was actually fed the 35th most top flight minutes league-wide. It’d hurt.
Biggest upgrade
One of the big regrets Kozel should have about his Liberec stint concerns Lukáš Červ and his performances suggesting a very limited attacking upside. Only once he landed at Miroslav Koubek’s feet in Plzeň, we got to know the assertive runner with the ball and gifted passer that went to the Euros; his Liberec showings suggested no such potential to be tapped into. At Slovan, he carried the ball upfield by an average of 34,41 meters per game; at Viktoria, that average jumped by more than 15 meters per game. There were 2 games all autumn long in which Červ contributed some xA; in the spring, there were six more, ultimately pushing his xG+xA value into the top quarter of the CDM leaderboard — an unrealistic prospect prior.
You get the idea.
That, in a way, means the Liberec version of Červ wasn’t too difficult to upgrade on. And then no external upgrade arrived for months, until Kováč pulled his noted favourite from Pardubice in Marek Icha. He actually only spent 886 mins in central midfield last season, qualifying for my fullback model instead via 1525 mins spent flanking either side of the CB tandem. And to be absolutely frank, he didn’t turn me into more of his fan with some worsened cross selection and suspect channel defending. But there is still one skill that should translate well into the midfield — his passing range. There were only 3 fullbacks who pushed (vertically) and stretched (horizontally) the play more effectively than Icha; and the company of Lukáš Masopust, Cheick Souaré and Jiří Fleišman is pretty neat. He’s always eager to combine down the flank, too, which could lead to some fine overloads on the right in particular, with Frýdek as a willing partner.
Biggest downgrade
The centre back department is definitely too thin as of right now, though it’s already a foregone conclusion the Slovan board is well aware of it and working on adding at least one senior candidate for the middle centre back role (there are confirmed talks ongoing about re-uniting Denis Halinský with Kováč, though he would be a bit of a waste in the middle CB role). The club hierarchy is high on Adam Ševínský, captain of this spring edition of Sparta B in the 2nd tier, but Ivan Varfolomeev had a decidedly rough run on this unfamiliar position in pre-season and it’s never a good sign when Tomáš Polyák, another midfielder by trade who usually just tags along with the first team as a summer filler, is your B or C option. He might be ready for more involvement at the top level after his first (!) loan away at Varnsdorf, but having just turned 23, he’d need to be almost an historic late bloomer to provide any kind of a meaningful solution, I’m afraid.
This is where it gets slightly awkward, because I’m ready to say that Matěj Chaluš constitutes the biggest downgrade due to the above-described situation caused by his departure, yet all the same admit that I understand why the new coaching staff reportedly didn’t push all that hard for his prolonged stay. Chaluš definitely brings some intangibles to the table which cannot be captured by any dataset, but there’s hope a healthy Dominik Plechatý finally gets to act as the captain he was once voted to be, and so the void shall not be as pronounced as it may appear right now.
Purely ability-wise, Chaluš definitely is replaceable. While he improved in the spring and generally provided a welcome steady presence at the back, Chaluš was nonetheless an inherent part of the huge set piece problem, committing a lot of defensive third fouls including two penalty ones, and then winning only 42,9% of aerial duels inside his own penalty area. If Kováč were to be keen on switching between 3 and 4-man defensive lines mid-game, like he sometimes did here in pre-season, then that’s another knock on Chaluš, much like playing any sort of a high line with him.
The unknown part which makes this a downgrade anyway is who replaces him like-for-like. Even “no one” might end up being a satisfactory answer, with Kováč’s well-documented recent track record of improving centre backs like Vlček and Hranáč within months boding well for 20-year-old Ševínský. He’s already got some desirable attributes in place; he’s capable of stepping up as the middle CB in the mould of Filip Panák (no coincidence, likely) and shows some very decent strength in duels for someone who aged out of his teens just this June. Nevertheless, it’s reasonable to feel at least slightly nervous at the moment. Especially since you’re also looking at Jan Mikula as your 4th and last already-signed proven first-team option at the stage of his career where he’d optimally get phased out pretty quickly. A quiet leader in his own right, Mikula was lowkey a massive problem in his own backyard, getting easily exposed by Prague “S”, and putting in 13 net-negative defensive performances (vs 4 positive ones). He can’t be anywhere close to the 3rd most used player like in 2023/24 if Slovan are to meet their goals, that goes without saying at this point, really.
And then there’s the right centre back role, originally reserved for Plechatý, which is a good thing given that he was frustratingly used on the left by Kozel where he can’t put his single best trait — ball progression via carries — to good use. He has a potential to be an immediate upgrade on Filip Prebsl whose duel behaviour still left a lot to be desired, but he’s far from perfect himself, historically getting crushed in the air (12/31 aerials won in his own box in 2022/23), and if high-profile loanee Halinský is needed elsewhere, then Plechatý’s backup is (for better) 19-year-old whose only senior experience came in the Slovak 2nd tier, or (for worse) a 26-year-old failed promise whose fresh summer extension left the entire fandom baffled.
Make no mistake, Martin Rýzek — voted the best prospect at the famed Spartak Trnava academy just this season — carries a lot of potential but due to some unfortunate recent developments (like getting injured at the start of the last winter preparation when coach Gašparík appeared finally ready to give him a proper A-team taste; and actually arriving injured to Liberec as well, only practicing individually), he’s more of a longterm project now.
New kid on the block
Rýzek isn’t the only teen Slovak import to Liberec this summer, Patrik Dulay is also a 2005 and potentially a fierce, fast left wing — and a project. Both of these guys are likely seeing limited playing time in 2023/24, but they are important additions to the historically barren pipeline. Talent development has long been an afterthought at Slovan, focused more on grooming loanees for the benefit of Slavia or Sparta, and less on their own — resulting in highly-rated Filip Papoušek (now-18-year-old son of the popular ‘Papén’, five-time league winner, who coached him in U-16s) never earning so much as a cap for youth national teams. Two 2009s were part of recent U-15 squads, but one (Adam Leibl) was just snapped up by Slavia.
As a result, once-hyped Jan Šulc (now 26) recently landed in the 3rd tier, which ended up being the highest level of Denis Frimmel (b. 1994) before him, too, while Dominik Gembický (now 24) is freshly off the hook and with 2nd-tier Viktoria Žižkov after never getting a real look. Kristián Michal (now 23) will most certainly soon follow them, searching for happiness.
The foremost quartet currently looking to avoid the same fate are Milan Lexa, Jakub Hudák (both b. 2004), Sebastian Kop (b. 2005) and Matěj Strnad (b. 2006). Fans hoped to see more of the first two in the latter stages of 2023/24 already, instead they won’t get to see either at Slovan next season, as they head together to Varnsdorf. There they effectively replace their 2004-born peers Matyáš Vojta (7+4) and Lukáš Mašek (6+2), whose spring exploits in the 2nd tier likely pushed them further up the depth chart at their parent club. It makes sense for Lexa and Hudák, too, even if the latter showed progress over this summer, looking stronger and readier for action; they’ve never played at the top U-19 level, after all, so a competent jump straight to Chance Liga would be a bit of a miracle anyway.
That’s not the case of Strnad anymore, the only Liberec international from U-16s up (U-18), whose 9 spring strikes were the single biggest reason why Slovan U-19 didn’t drop back down from the top tier (by two points) right away after clawing their way there. Strnad has stuck with the A-team all the way through summer after signing his first professional deal at the start of it, and has flashed some intriguing 1v1 skill. Kop is a bit further, only coming down to help out U-19s in the spring crunch time after spending the entire fall with the 3rd-tier reserves, and looks like a classic no. 8 engine the Czech youth football is capable of spitting out consistently.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
I started writing this piece on 6 July, with a list of up to 4 reinforcements Slovan would ideally make to be fit for their Top 5 ambition. On 12 July, one need (backup/rotation playmaking no. 6/8 to replace Mohamed Doumbia) has been sorted and two more are just about to be sorted (Hlavatý backup at no. 8; a senior centre back), and only one true need is left — starting, or at worst 1B, goalkeeper capable of challenging Hugo Jan Bačkovský.
Depending on who the replacement is, Vliegen’s departure could still make way for a clear upgrade, though. (While the dream scenario involving Antonín Kinský is all but buried, Dominik Holec is still free at the time of writing, ehm.) After looking like a solid longterm bet in 2022/23, he didn’t only take a step back last term, but utterly tanked his value and confidence. After doing so 7 times, he didn’t steal a single game all season long, losing the starting role after two games vs Karviná and Teplice where a whopping 8 shots slipped past him from a total of 3,33 expected goals conceded. After posting the 2nd highest high-danger save % last year (57,9%), he was now 2nd worst, dealing with an embarrassing 2 of 18 efforts of 0,4+ xGC value. The lost confidence also showed on his worsened activity off the line and beyond the penalty area; prior strength turning into frequent discomfort.
This pizza chart, and Vliegen’s imminent departure, would be significantly less concerning if Hugo Jan Bačkovský made the opportunity count for himself, but even that wasn’t the case. He was far from a similar liability, actually flashing the league best reflexes for a grandiose change, pulling off 9 high-danger saves and frustrating Sparta in particular, but on balance, he didn’t do enough to elevate Liberec’s goalkeeping from the league’s basement (collectively ~8 goals conceded above expectations; difference between 10th and 4th best defence in terms of actual goals conceded this season). Bačkovský was only barely above break even in terms of prevented goals (0,03 per game) and gave a fair bit of value back with his flawed distribution and somewhat erratic behaviour when coming off the line (not just owing to his small frame, but also while sweeping outside the box).
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- One need to be addressed thoroughly cleared: central midfield deck. The pending Qëndrim Zyba addition helps a ton in adding the deep-lying playmaking element behind Icha, and he’s an active midfielder capable of stepping in the no. 8 role, too, though he comes with limitations in off-the-ball movement, positioning and final third contribution. It’s possible, plausible even, that Frýdek shadows Hlavatý at times and pushes Olaf Kok up the depth chart after some spirited performances in the spring, but that might not be needed with Vyškov star Santiago Eneme about to undergo a medical per most recent news. He’s exactly the dynamic, creative no. 8 that has a surprise solution always in his pocket. Finally, with Varfolomeev, you’ve got room for some substantial internal growth too, as he’s still only 20 years old. He had all the opportunity to grab a starting spot in the aftermath of Červ’s departure, but that opportunity was gone for him by R25 (his last full start). A clean slate with Kováč might help him, as he’s a uniquely gritty talent in this group. Polyák, meanwhile, drew very good reviews at Varnsdorf, but a “very good 2nd tier player” is likely his ceiling.
- Zyba basically arrives to replace Mohamed Doumbia, it sounds like, who had a torrid spring run after looking like a stud in the (alarmingly) small sample in 2022/23 (you may recall he graded out as the best CDM, in fact). This season, even my model doesn’t flatter Doumbia whose frequent switching off and downright laziness/sluggishness in closing down opponents in the defensive zone led to his pizza chart looking very incomplete for a change. Still a fine passer, but little beyond that:
- Two players whom I’m particularly excited to see grow under Kováč’s leadership are also two high-profile rivals of each other who would be perfect candidates for the “chip on the shoulder” section, as well. Christian Frýdek enters the contract year having spent the entire spring on the shelf, which means I can (finally) compare him to Denis Višinský, another U-21 who’s been around seemingly forever, and one more attacking midfielder who needs to be re-upped soon. Their comparison table makes for a fascinating case study; per underlying numbers, Frýdek’s prime offensive output was “negligible” while Višinský’s “pivotal”, yet Frýdek (6 points) was involved in 52,9% of goals scored with him on the pitch, while Višinský (3 points) in a mere 26,7%. This is the prime example of why points are never all there is to see, and at the same time why underlying numbers are very much neither. Višinský is easily one of the most inspired mazy dribblers around, but he also quite often bumps into the wall, becoming overconfident or too cute with the ball at his feet. He’s so much fun to watch because he always looks to drive to the goal, either alone or via a one-two, but failing to convert all 7 high-danger shots is just his own shortcoming. Frýdek is a much better ball progressor with one of the sharpest through balls on a per-game basis, but his off-the-ball activity took a dip.
- Benjamin Nyarko (b. 2004) stands aside as something different to what Liberec already had upfront — a strong, fast centre forward to lurk around the offside line and provide little to nothing in the build-up. His technical limitations might lower his overall ceiling dramatically, but he could still be of use in certain situations, certain games/game states.
- It will be no surprise to the faithful reader that I remain high on Marios Pourzitidis along with my model who saw him as an above average centre back on both previous counts (67,2 and 69 percentile) but can only now be considered fully sold. It’s because Pourzitidis has made visible strides on the ball and cut out even more of his uncontrolled lunges, making for a more predictable centre half with more upside. Only Hranáč and Holeš, two starters at 2024 Euros, came close to landing in the 90+ percentile for both losses leading to shots and tendency to switch off on defence, like the dependable Greek did. Looking to run with the ball more and flashing an intriguing cross every now and then (completing 13 of them over the campaign, as many as Tupta or Kulenović), Pourzitidis might be growing into Michal Kadlec’s heir apparent, while hardly anyone in the league seems to be noticing.
- I’ll save my Denis Halinský analysis for the Pardubice preview to spread the word count at least a little bit, but for now let me just say this: he’s the real deal who has flown too far under the radar. He landed in the 83,1 percentile on a team where other regular centre backs were good for 12,3… 7,7… and 0. He carried the latest edition of Kováč’s defence.
Roster battle to follow
Could Aziz Kayondo (b. 2002) be the second coming of Cheick Souaré, another left (wing) back who took the top flight by storm right from the 2nd tier? That’s the question on every Slovan fan’s lips, and the probable answer reads something along the lines of “not quite, but he’s not bad either!”. A dynamic, aggressive fullback can deliver a decent cross from deep, but he’ll be a work in progress in other areas such as positional sense, aerial prowess (might be impossible given his height), cross off a run, etc. Patience is to be preached. Similarly, on the opposite flank, Liberec are banking on Josef Koželuh (of the same age) who’s profiling as a bit of a defensive specialist to follow in the footsteps of the departing Michal Fukala. At this point, fans should not expect any fireworks in terms of final third contributions and creativity (which could prove to be a stumbling block in a WB role), but he’s pretty steady and smart with his link up play.
Watching these arrivals, of course, is Ahmed Ghali. And the familiar question continues to linger: does he slot in on the left or on the right? Going by the pre-season, the former seems to be the preferred way going forward, but that could change in an instant. It kept changing in 2023/24. Per Wyscout, Ghali spent 1,138 mins on the left and 1,187 on the right. His average xG+xA output? Identical — 0,18 down left; 0,19 on the opposite side.
It’s no surprise that I’m torn myself where he’s at his best. He’s crossed and dribbled far more on the left side on average, but his most formidable individual run of form (between R7-12) involved him frequently switching between both flanks, famously delivering against Slavia as right fullback.
Either way, there are no surprises with Ghali playing style-wise; he’s a very capable straight line runner who navigates the middle third very well, knows what a cutback zone looks like, and beats his marker for fun. This is a volume dribbler who’s on his own island among fullbacks (his 2,80 successful offensive duels in final third beat the next best man, Michal Černák, by a whopping 0,84 duels per game!) but also doesn’t leave anything to be desired in terms of success rate, grading out as the 2nd most reliable dribbler after Veljko Birmančević with a 53,2% rate in high duels. That’s rarely seen on a volume dribbler. Wale Musa Alli is in a similar stratosphere (50,3%), but Ewerton already lags well behind (44,1%).
And don’t forget about Dominik Preisler, a lowkey candidate for a transfer out as well as a starter’s position — pretty much both equally at the same time. My model has historically given him too much love, arguably, and this past season is no exception, with his ever-so-expansive passing game once again far overshadowing his staggering, dynamism-related weakness.
Similarly, don’t sleep on Nicolas Penner as capable RWB alternative. It took him until Round 20 to finally start a FORTUNA:LIGA game for Liberec, and he didn’t exactly stick, but his 2,89 deep completed crosses per game (in a small sample of 6,9 starts) as well as 4,34 successful penalty area entries are some extremely impressive rates (Wallem was top in the latter with 3,32).
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
When we first did this exercise ahead of 2022/23 season, Liberec were still without the quartet of Van Buren, Talovierov, Preisler and Valenta. Before the strengthening, they were expected to finish the regular season at 9th, which they improved upon by two places and about two points. Last year, they were still awaiting Žambůrek, but also had the benefit of Olatunji still counting towards their projected point total. With those caveats, they were expected to land 8th, and underhit the target by one place and two points.
The model has historically been pretty accurate when it comes to Slovan, which is good news for Kania because they are projected to hit his personal target of a Top 5 finish even though I had jumped the gun this time around and docked them a few points for the widely expected Tupta departure already. The 39% chance of returning to the continental stage means nearly double the odds compared to 2023, and middle group is no longer the likeliest placement for the club (from 46% to 50% all the way to 35% now).
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/3. Kozel posted his worst win % in 4 years, not over 50%
The prediction: Liberec will celebrate exactly 17 victories, post-season included
Last summer, I kicked off the bold prediction series with a rare attendance-related one for a rebranded, refreshed Teplice. It didn’t quite come back to bite me in the ass, since Teplice’s average attendance jumped by nearly 2k from 2022/23 and the R5 visit by Sparta did come extremely close to unseating this century’s club attendance record (16,180) as I predicted (15,840), so it was quite tempting to go in a similar direction with Slovan here. Especially with Kania ambitiously targeting a first sell-out in 7 years in R3 already when Slavia, with its complicated ties to Liberec, pay a visit.
Ultimately, seeing the billboard onslaught, cool Kováč presentation featuring the best hair in business against the backdrop of a popular rap ode to Liberec and season ticket prices getting set democratically by a Facebook poll, I decided it wouldn’t be bold enough after all.
So instead, let’s join those billboards and Kováč together.
Some may recall the spectacular entrée then-33-year-old defender made upon returning to the Czech fields from an ill-fated stint in Basel. Before his debut in a derby clash with Jablonec, Liberec were sitting 10th, just three points off relegation points and a seemingly hopeless 13 points off their rivals. Then they beat them 1:0 and proceeded to finish the season with a stunning 11-1-1 record, roaring to a 3rd-place finish, five points clear of Jablonec. In the process, they equalled the club’s record from the title-winning 2001/02 season in winning 9 straight games while keeping 6 clean sheets. Then they started the following season in much the same way, rattling off six victories in the first eight, losing just twice in Kováč’s first 21 appearances. I don’t think it gets mentioned often enough how much of an impact the former Czech international made at Slovan then; so let’s see him etch some fresh memories of one in our collective minds by becoming only the fourth coach in Liberec’s history to knock off 17 victories in a season — one per each billboard installed by the club in the aggressive off-season.
Have I overdone it with the boldness, for a change? Sure, we are talking some new levels of dominance, with the 17-win hurdle only ever getting bettered in two title-winning seasons featuring 20 (Šilhavý) and 19 (Škorpil) victories. Kozel topped out at 12, with the benefit of four extra games. But hey, if Jindřich Trpišovský could’ve done it in his first season in the Czech top flight (2015/16, just barely), why couldn’t Kováč in his fourth full one?
Assuming Liberec make it to the championship group this time around, which should definitely be within reach, then 17 wins out of 35 games work out to 48,6% win ratio. Liberec have already reached those heights in 7 top flight seasons, including one overseen by 40-year-old Vlastimil Petržela (1994/95) and one prominently featuring Kováč himself (2012/13).
This is doable.
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