2024/25 team preview: FC Viktoria Plzeň
Last year in this space, I made sure to note that Plzeň — back then with a shiny new ownership made up of Czech, Swiss, Austrian minds — are coming into the season weirdly low-profile, not trusted to challenge for the title only 12 months removed from winning one. This year, they are hardly lowkey — signing some of the fanciest names and earning some unlikely ‘title favourite’ love from Deník Sport’s Michal Kvasnica — to the point that one’s got to wonder: are we, for a change, over-compensating?
It does feel that way, to be honest. I too am fond of their transfer window, and I like the direction they are headed to after neglecting the future outlook for too long, but the 17-point gap between them and Sparta cannot be underestimated. At the same time, the memorable wins over Sparta (4:0) and Slavia (1:0) shall not be overestimated, seeing that they came in a vastly stress-free environment for Viktoria and equally as stressful for both “S”. This context is important, however abstract it is; Plzeň were effectively out of the title race in November (18 points behind the table leaders entering December) and by the time that March stand vs Sparta arrived, there was no doubt they wouldn’t move up or down the rest of the way.
Miroslav Koubek deserves a ton of credit for both cup runs; the historic first in getting into a European quarter-final on the back of some stunning clean sheet numbers, and the fourth domestic cup final which meant that Viktoria equalled Baník Ostrava as the fifth most frequent participant.
But cup sprints constitute a very different discipline to league marathons; that’s the truth as old as it is undisputable. It’s up to Koubek now to find a recipe for more consistency and, consequently, more of a fight at the top.
He’s up against his own record, of course. The oldest coach in the Czech top flight’s history has, infamously, never performed a truly successful follow-up act. At Baník, he swapped a title challenge for a 3-3-7 start and got fired. Then, he returned Boleslav to the Top 4 after four failures only to limp out to a 2-1-4 start and earn an even earlier sack. Even at Plzeň previously, he was allowed to follow up on his famous 2014/15 championship with just 4 rounds despite recently extending his contract by two more years. And finally at Hradec, he didn’t get to finish the sophomore season either — officially due to health reasons, unofficially (also) due to losing the room.
To his credit, Koubek is not holding back. He realizes the tough challenge lying ahead of him, but he nonetheless wants the title. Can he do it?
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
Let’s start with those mythical “S” beatings. The triumph against Sparta was special mainly for preventing the title holders from generating more than 0,09 expected goals for, which basically equals one mediocre shot. Going all the way back to the birth of Wyscout (2015/16), Sparta had never been this clueless. As for Slavia, Koubek has all but confirmed he’s Trpišovský’s highest-profile Nemesis. After an extremely rare Plzeň double over Slavia (first since 1946/47!), he’s now beaten him in 6/8 encounters over the years.
When you zoom out a little bit, Plzeň were the 3rd best side in the league across the board — which should surprise no one — but also flashed attacking variability and incisiveness previously barely seen. All three of their channels — left, right, centre — ranked in the Top 3 per xGF generated from positional attacks, with neither dropping below 0,28 xGF per game. Slavia were worse down the middle (4th) and Sparta down the right (10th!).
Koubek has also successfully adjusted his high-octane Hradec blueprint to the Plzeň context, used to a much different reality under Michal Bílek, bringing their PPDA (opponent’s passes per defensive action allowed) from borderline Top 10 values in both Bílek-coached campaigns to the 2nd best. This manifested in a lot of danger generated off of turnovers forced up high, with Plzeň creating 17 particularly great looks (best); finishing off 4.
Finally, what kind of went right for Plzeň was also the opposing goalkeeping, allowing nearly 10 goals above expected; the highest mark league-wide. Second luckiest side, Zlín, already benefitted from 4 extra goals less. It’s not really Viktoria’s doing, but it always helps when the other goalkeepers fail to perform; alien custodians went below minus-0,3 prevented goals on fifteen separate occasions while Plzeň’s did so just 6x.
What went (especially) wrong
That being said, Plzeň also didn’t manage to figure out Dominik Holec in the Karviná goal on both counts, so there’s that — swings and roundabouts.
Plzeň also must have felt a bit schizophrenic when it came to attacking set pieces. They posed a legitimate threat, generating almost two shots from corners per game (3rd best rate) and earning the highest set piece xG per Statsbomb (second highest per Wyscout by the way), yet most fans still felt they weren’t getting the most of them. Per my notes (17) and FORTUNA:LIGA website (26) alike, they did lead the league with the most set piece goals, but relative to opportunity, it doesn’t quite feel like enough.
Generally, what made this season a lost one was indeed the lacking consistency. At one point (R8-11), their xG matchup sequence read like this:
Pardubice (home) — real score 6:2 — xG score +1,3 (80th best in 23/24)
Sparta (away) — real score 1:2 — xG score -1,31 (476th best in 23/24)
Jablonec (home) — real score 3:2 — xG score +1,23 (89th best in 23/24)
Liberec (away) — real score 0:3 — xG score -1,12 (452th best in 23/24)
And it wasn’t even about the home-away split. At another point, they went from crushing Olomouc on the road (3:1 scoreline to the tune of plus-1,78 xG differential) right to crumbling in the face of Boleslav at home (1:1 scoreline to the tune of minus-1,39 xG differential). You just never knew.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Lukáš Kalvach (4th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Kalvach/Dweh (100 pct at CDM/CB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Jan Kopic
This is incredibly hard and I’m not ready to settle for one or two, hence I’m opting for a historically first three-way tie. Per my MVP model, they are all deserving, representing different areas of the game — Lukáš Kalvach makes the quality plays and holds it all together in the middle as per usual (4th on the league leaderboard), while the emerging duo of Pavel Šulc (6th) and Robin Hranáč (11th) does the scoring/assisting and defending respectively.
If I got pushed for a single answer, I’d probably settle for the comfort food in the form of Kalvach despite the weaker spring that, crucially, weakened his 2024 Euro case to the point where neither I could vouch for him. Still, in the most straightforward sense, he once again appeared to be the least replaceable man on Viktoria roster, while his passing range bounced back from 4th to 2nd among CDMs, and his value added upfront didn’t diminish one bit either, going from an average 3-metric percentile of 87,4 to 98,3.
Need to crack the penalty area from open play? Kalvach does it the best — 2,3 times per average game, whereas runner-up Oscar is on 1,96. You think this doesn’t correlate with goal/chance creation? Oh you couldn’t be more wrong, since Kalvach assists on a big chance/goal 1,06 times per game (2nd best). Anything from set pieces? Kalvach fetched Plzeň a league-leading 3,45 expected assists (and 4 real assists) and 43 key passes purely that way.
My second choice would probably be Hranáč, whose rare absence from the starting line-up brought Plzeň two of the most disappointing results in the losses to Teplice (0:1) and Liberec (1:3), and three of the poorest performances — those two plus the chaotic win over Slovácko (4:2). Hranáč was, of course, the rising star of the campaign, who funnily enough didn’t actually do all that much rising; he was excellent pretty much from Day 1.
Per my model, he’s done a lot of rising, though, going from a 25,9-percentile CB in 22/23 to a 64,6-percentile one now. Did you expect him higher? For that, he’ll have to make strides in all metrics concerning duel behaviour. In fact, he was one of only 9 centre backs in the field of 66 who graded out as below average in all of aerial duel success rate, ground duel success rate and fouls committed in the defensive third. (One of the rest, and the only other one from the Top 4, was his old Pardubice pal Vlček, ha!)
Still, Hranáč is a very good MVP candidate simply due to his very high floor — nevermind the ceiling. He almost never falls asleep, covering for his teammates far too often to be fully appreciated, and only 0,51 of his losses (of possession or in a duel) per game led to a shot within 30 seconds — a substantial jump from Hejda’s average of 0,67, for instance. There were as many as 14 ninety-minute starts in which I didn’t find Hranáč to be culpable for any goal or a chance. Dweh, meanwhile, had eight of those.
And finally, Plzeň’s MVP in the more traditional, goalscoring sense. Fighting for the golden boot till the very end, Šulc was an incredible press-machine — recovering 2,2 balls in the final third per game and creating 7 chances/goals on his own, by forcing a turnover — on top of being an untameable force to be reckoned with whenever he arrived to the box. He was there to produce 0,9 high-danger shots per game, an astonishing rate for someone who barely left the field (27,73 full starts). Karabec was close with the rate, but also featured in just over 10 full games, whereas the drop-off from there is pronounced; third Daněk was putting in 0,69 such efforts.
I sometimes call Šulc the second coming of Ondřej Lingr, but that’s not entirely fair and is mostly based on his opportunistic behaviour in the final third. Lingr was never this good in all of expected assists, deep completed crosses and (especially) offensive duel success rate, with Šulc possessing a far more varied and technically polished skillset on top of those ugly goals.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
This is going to be another collective one, I’m sorry. With the flurry of young up-and-comers arriving to chew on their minutes, I’m particularly intrigued by how big roles the numerous veteran backups get to fill. Milan Havel is, at best, a 3rd backup on both wingback positions after making a comeback from a very serious injury towards the end of the last season. Lukáš Hejda took a lowkey step forward compared to last term (up by 26,1 pct), doing a lot of the rudimentary defending for Plzeň as both a wide and middle CB and closely following Jakub Černín and actually beating Ladislav Krejčí in the “Most Dominant Attacking and Defensive Header” contest. But he once again failed to survive the pre-season healthy, and this time it’s likely a longterm concern, with two extra senior centre backs on board.
And then there’s Matěj Vydra, who’s somehow 32 already and fresh off one of his better individual seasons, I’m sure. As a withdrawn striker, he’s a perfect fit for this intense Koubek outfit, applying pressure efficiently, getting fouled without fouling much and acting as a self-sufficient chance/goal creator. His acceleration is — also somehow — still present. His playmaking is getting better with seemingly every year. And it’s not like he wasn’t there to finish chances off, either, ranking above the likes of Yusuf, Cicilia, Pulkrab, Kulenović or Kubala in non-penalty inside-the-box xG.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to Michal, @19ws92, @belly11mb, @poskal77 and @ZdenekFrana for guiding me through the motions of Plzeň’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Did you know/realize Ibrahim Traoré ranked 8th in outfield player usage on this Plzeň team? I did not. While Tomáš Chorý makes for an obvious valuable subtraction — directly or indirectly contributing to 23 goals and 34 wasted chances — Traoré barely constitutes one in my subjective opinion, already getting dramatically phased out following the arrival of Lukáš Červ.
What would, of course, trip up Plzeň greatly: potentially impending departures of Šulc and Hranáč. There are definitely bids on the latter, and it seemed like a foreglone conclusion not long ago that the former is gone. They both will be in the matchday squad on Day 1, but the transfer window of all top leagues closes in sync on 30 August, over a month later. If these two most frequent Plzeň team-of-the-week nominees (12 apiece) do indeed leave, they’ll push Viktoria to the last place in terms of retained goals (only 44,7%), while in terms of minutes, they’d suddenly be 12th instead of 7th.
Biggest upgrade
Plzeň started off Koubek’s inaugural campaign mostly lining up in a flatter 3-5-2 (with Rafiu Durosinmi partnering Chorý) or 3-5-1-1 (with Šulc below a striker). Then, as Vydra grew better and Traoré worse, the preferred formation morphed into more of a 3-4-2-1 with Šulc frequently joined by either Vydra or Jhon Mosquera. Even Erik Jirka found his way into the RAM role. It had worked, but it was missing something a lot of times — the alternatives could’ve been better. Now, the way to go appears to be a wider 3-4-3, already employed against both “S” towards the end of 2023/24 (first with Šulc and Mosquera, then with Jirka and Vydra), while Jirka is probably dropping deeper back to right wingback (also a formerly tested out option).
Those who are making this a current preference are primarily the new faces. Christophe Kabongo, 20-year-old bomber who has been able to score every 73 minutes for the Czech U-21s, can play just about anywhere but is arguably at his best coming off the left wing and getting into the box. After a poor first impression in two first Czechia-based friendlies (often offside, often disconnected), he exploded for a hat trick vs Lafnitz, Viktoria’s partner club, and hasn’t looked back, following up with a goal in each of the final 3 friendlies in Austria. Once, he showed he doesn’t mind using both feet. At other times, he flashed his incredible mix of strength and pace. One of his goals was assisted by Tom Slončík, another youngster (19) whose limitless confidence is matched by his fantastic ability. The former Zlín stalwart has shown his signature poise on the ball, often delaying and skipping a beat to find the right pass and not lose the possession cheaply, though he’ll need more time to get used to Koubek’s demand for intensity.
This pizza chart above looks similarly empty as the last one, though it’s important to note that even the most obvious offensive marvels on relegated teams don’t tend to stick out too much when pitted against the rest of the league. He’s worked to navigate offensive duels better (formerly 10,9 pct) but it’s still true he needs to cut out fouls big time — committing an offense 38 times while drawing a foul only 14 times — and should improve in applying pressure efficiently (no forced turnover for a chance/goal).
Either way, Kabongo is a better fit for a 3-4-3 than the ageing Mosquera, while Slončík could make for a suitable box presence in Šulc’s absence. And then there’s James Bello (b. 2005), a traditional right winger for “B”.
Biggest downgrade
Everyone has — and shares — their opinion on Tomáš Chorý these days.
I obviously cannot miss out.
But I’m not sure it will cause a stir.
Here it goes…
Tomáš Chorý is a damn good player who’ll be missed dearly regardless of who replaces him. I know right! The shock. Frankly, those replacements might be close to the best available. Ricardinho arrives as a fine poacher (head or feet) who’s willing to engage in a one-two at the edge of the box; theoretically carrying the perfect skillset to let people forget about Chorý whose feel for soft lay-offs, be it with feet or chest, sits unrivalled in the league. Daniel Vašulín works his ass off, as well, and grades out as Chorý’s runner-up in terms of battling contributions via fouls drawn or duels undergone. The thing is, Chorý created 14 chances/goals that way and got fouled in the final third an insane total of 22 times. Vašulín is 2nd with 19 chance/goal contributions (good) but only 13 fouls drawn up high (worse).
Nevertheless, being the right general type isn’t all that is required for Plzeň to not feel the loss. Vašulín would need to be a far more delicate passer, Ricardinho would need to do far better in aerial duels (free headers are not a problem) to make Chorý’s shadow disappear. The giant will be missed.
New kid on the block
First, a little recap for the sake of valuable context: in 2021, when I started doing this thing, I was forced into picking 24-year-old Modou N’Diaye; the following year, I went to a 21-year-old Slovak import (Matej Trusa); while last summer, finally, I could’ve highlighted a teenager in Jan Paluska.
This year, we are continuing in the right direction, going from an 18-year-old to a 16-year-old. (Guys, I’m not sure we can keep this trend up!) And what’s better, a 16-year-old who’s legitimately fighting for a starting spot.
One of my consultants, @belly11mb, doesn’t think he’s seen a more confident teenager — one-on-one, and with his creative pass — to have come through Viktoria ranks than Jiří Panoš (b. 2007). Maybe Ondřej Štursa back in 2018, whose career has been derailed critically by various injuries (now he’s in the 3rd tier). Panoš is, of course, no unknown to those who followed the recent U-17 Euro where he started three games in three different roles (on the right and left side of the double pivot, and in the hole). Transfermarkt, meanwhile, lists him as a right winger. This versatility alone makes him a decent bet to pick up some minutes here and there.
Panoš is not the only fresh face who’s gotten a look in, though. In the absence of Viktor Baier, himself a teenager still, another U-17 Euro participant Matyáš Šilhavý (b. 2007) tagged along for the summer camp. Ondřej Deml (b. 2005) has been promoted from the reserves after consistently performing to a high level; unspectacular but solid CDM.
Why is this suddenly happening? First and foremost, while Šilhavý (understandably) got a taste as Viktoria’s U-17 star, Panoš was already a big contributor to their U-19’s success — a first Top 3 finish in seven years. Back then, the likes of Filip Čihák, Jonáš Vais, Lukáš Pfeifer or Jakub Selnar turned the juniors into a force. Panoš’s eight-point show (6+2) makes the current generation a lot more special. And that team was still missing his peer Florián Višňa (b. 2007), a bit stuck at Lafnitz, who have now sent 23-year-old centre back Cory Sène back as part of the beginning partnership.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
The absenting alternative for Hranáč is more demonstrative, since Hejda could of course step in. But he’s injured, so he’s not fixing anything now. Václav Míka is an interesting case of a 24-year-old who had seemed condemned to eternal loan travels and now appeared just fine in pre-season, but he’s overcome too many injuries that make him less appealing. Sène could be a bit of a Dweh-like signing, initially thought of as a longterm project who runs away with the starter’s role, but he’s an outside bet right now. Appearing confident in pre-season (he’s freaking big at 196 cm, by the way) and playing regularly in Austrian 2nd tier is one thing, coping in Chance Liga might be another thing entirely — probably a level too high.
That said, it’s not like Václav Jemelka should be considered undroppable, with his appalling box defending standing out as a constant weakness. Jemelka has never been able to hold his own in the air, now also appearing an insignificant contributor in terms of sweeping up passes or loose balls.
Another need could potentially be identified in the middle of the park, but Plzeň have probably done alright in not overreacting to Červ’s pre-season injury (ultimately not preventing him from starting the opener) and not blocking Matěj Valenta’s path back to consideration after the knee surgery. His pizza chart below doesn’t jump out, but it’s important to realize I ran him through the CAM model because that’s where he slots in at Plzeň (as more of an attacking no. 8), whereas he was at his best as more of a CDM at Slovácko, allowing Havlík to flourish with his clever all-round support.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- To follow-up on the CB debate above, we need to talk about Sampson Dweh. My model loves him, seeing an expansive beast and a dynamic monster gobbling up one ball after another, but I see kinks that irritate me. Dweh can be weirdly uncoordinated in duels, kind of running through many of them, and often underestimates the ball’s bounce, bizarrely missing an easy interception at times (especially with searching balls played in behind the line). These are definitely not flaws that couldn’t be ironed out with more time, but there’s a reason why this physically imposing, dominant CB doesn’t look at all well in “crucial sweeping attempts at the back”. Poor anticipation let him down in 7 situations that led to a goalscoring chance (or goal) per my notes, while he was often too unfocused as well. He’s bombed in high-profile games like against Slovácko, Slavia (two goals caused in each) or Ostrava, too.
- There’s a lot of the red on the depth chart above, so let’s deal with that. Both youngsters Baier and Paluska have sadly missed the end of 2023/24 already and their absence is marked as “indefinite”. Meanwhile, Valenta’s recovery should be in its final phase, with the initial timeline post-surgery predicting up to three months on the sidelines (ie. late June). Jan Sýkora, who quickly followed Valenta under the knife with his ACL, is looking at a longer period out, further derailing his career. And finally, the foremost joker — Rafiu Durosinmi. He’s rehabbing in Belgium far away from the spotlight and could only be back for the spring, but don’t you go forgetting about him. Despite not qualifying for my pizza chart again (minimum of 900 mins), he wound up sitting 86th on my MVP leaderboard, ahead of Christos Zafeiris, Lukáš Juliš or Jan Chramosta. That’s because he managed to participate on 15 goals inside 8,6 full starts — completely out-of-the-world rate — creating a further 16 chances. His protracted recovery, over a year long, could make him less of a factor, but even if his impact gets halfed… it’s still freaking huge!
- First in March when he was standing on his head to deny Servette in the Conference League R16 (preventing 2,01 goals above expected!), and then again in mid-April when he was doing the same to Fiorentina, some rebellious momentum was building behind Martin Jedlička and his case for a Euro 2024 call-up. It wouldn’t be too wild, as he’s got significant international pedigree as a former U-21 star, too, but it was nonetheless considered “hipster”. And I’m not sure it should be. Jedlička’s distribution is nowhere near “top notch” in reality, but his shot-stopping ability certainly is deserving the Top 2 ranking.
Roster battle to follow
Viktoria Plzeň currently have three wingbacks that would walk into any top flight club and play regularly, I’m pretty much convinced about that. I realize it’s kind of a hot take with regards to Jan Kopic, but his attacking versatility is quite simply off the charts. You don’t land in the 94 percentile for xG+xA among FBs without a heavy set piece duty by some accident. If you consider him more of a W still, he’s a toolsy player by comparison, too.
Cadu is the real wildcard here, as he’s nearly as comfortable on the right as he is on the left. I kind of prefer him on his off side, flashing a clever inswinging cross every now and then, but that’s where he bumps into a different kind of a phenom — possibly the heir apparent to David Jurásek.
Cheick Souaré, missing a chunk of pre-season for a minor injury, has been an utter revelation after coming over from the second tier, immediately looking comfortable at whatever he does. And he does everything. Or will do absolutely everything once he starts running with the ball a little more, which is really just a choice at this point — of course he’d excel at that too.
Between Souaré and Cadu, Plzeň boast one wingback soon entering his peak (soon turning 22) and one wingback already peaking (soon turning 27), with the more senior one looking to engage in one-two’s closer to the middle of the pitch, whereas the more junior one prefers to knock the ball down the byline, progressing the play at a far higher rate. Both are supremely smart crossers, hitting the pause button at just the right moments, seeing their deliveries blocked early at 5th and 6th lowest rate.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
The model is not buying what Plzeň enthusiasts among pundits and fans alike are selling; quite simply and overwhelmingly. The 2% chance of becoming unlikely champions feels ridiculously low, and that’s with Sparta also projecting too poorly due to the lack of reinforcements at the time of running the simulations; with some of those on board, it goes down to 1%.
It’s all about the perspective, though. Plzeň are supposed to be only one point worse off this season per model, so it’s not entirely their wrongdoing. Instead, this is mostly a result of facing a historically dominant two-headed monster at the top. At the same time, Plzeň were good for a 21% title likelihood not too long ago when they were the defending champions. Since then, they’ve been 17 points behind the top dog not once but twice — in 2022/23, the title race played out basically the same, lest we forget.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/3. No Koubek’s former favourite won the scoring race
The prediction: Lukáš Červ will be sent off in a game against his cousin
The rationale: There will be a lot of the same blood on the Czech top flight fields. David Douděra is joined by his brother Martin, formerly a Slavia star in UEFA Youth League who’s finally debuting on the top level with Dukla at 22, while their cousin — similarly loud and energetic — plays for Plzeň.
That gives me a solid chance to bet on Lukáš Červ seeing a red card. He tends to foul more in high-stake games, already booked in four different Sparta/Slavia games, and has only been sent off once in his young top flight career, acting overly motivated in the late stages of a České Budějovice match to see two yellow cards in quick succession. I don’t find this disciplinary record befitting the immensely emotional player, and when best to correct it than against his own family member. He’ll get 5 chances.
If you made it here and enjoyed the article, please do consider supporting our work by donating a small amount of money at BuyMeACoffee page. Cheers!
