2024/25 team preview: FK Jablonec
Three coaches, three bottom six finishes. Jablonec were last this consistently poor in 1998-01. At the end of that period, fresh-faced 19-year-old Tomáš Hübschman was swapping Jablonec for Sparta. Now, Jablonec are trying to bounce back without Hübschman again, though this time the soon-to-be-43-year-old is moving upstairs to potentially counter his Euro 2012 teammate, Theo Gebre Selassie, who’s also trying to turn three years of utter mediocrity into something more with Liberec.
On 6 June, Jablonec boss Miroslav Pelta exited a court room smiling from ear to ear. The initial sentence of 6 years in prison for the former Czech FA chairman was repealed and the case of suspected manipulation with grants has got to be rewound to the very beginning for already the second time. It’s not a complete acquittal, since insufficient reasoning was behind it (not meaning there are no grounds for harsh punishment), but it’s over for now.
On 7 June, Radoslav Látal — wildly unpopular among fans, and a third head coach to have led Jablonec into the relegation group in 3 years — got fired.
Coincidence? Hardly. His predecessor David Horejš was on Pelta’s payroll far beyond his actual stint at Jablonec, cut short after a single season, and now the same prospect awaited with Látal who also had a year left on his deal. Had Pelta edged closer to bars the day prior, he likely wouldn’t have the guts — and potentially resources — to cover the expenses tied to the sack.
Then the spending spree began. After 10 days, Pelta signed probably the most expensive free agent among coaches, Luboš Kozel, and quickly managed to convince Michal Beran to forget his dreams of moving abroad. Jablonec is back as a serious player on the market, right on cue with the cheeky neighbour placing their shiny new billboards right at the bottom of the hill Střelnice, Jablonec’s elevated stadium, sits on and next to the Mšeno dam, a popular chilling spot in the middle of Jablonec nad Nisou, adjacent city which Liberec residents tend to mockingly call “suburbs”.
What do you do when your rival sticks a tongue out at you like that, through a newly hired marketing director who got the big break and a LFA gig from Pelta? I guess it’d be more fun to poach its head coach the same way they angried Liberec fans with the Šilhavý behind-the-scenes negotiations in 2014, but luring in Michal Beran, who broke through at Slovan in 2019/20, along with Marek Čech who after 6 years left the goalkeeping coach post at Liberec — where he kept 14 clean sheets on the way to the 2005/06 title — has got to come ever so close to the next most satisfying compensation.
Think and say what you will about Pelta’s dealings and persona, but the league is objectively more fun with a cocksure, proactive Jablonec owner. This won’t exactly be a second coming of the so-called “Galácticos”, featuring a list of 12 dream signings (and actual signings of Hübschman or Tomáš Jun, a high-profile flop for a change) and lasting only a year and a half per Pelta’s own admission in December 2015, but it does start to feel like Jablonec are ready to edge closer to the Top 6 again; much like Liberec. Let the Battle for the North begin! In a dimension as yet undiscovered…
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
Jablonec wrapped up the season with the longest unbeaten streak of the miserable three-year period (7), but it was hardly their best period under Radoslav Látal since five of those seven matchups were actually lost per xG. There was, however, a period where it looked both on the surface and beneath it that everything is starting to click and fall in place for Látal. The run started with the Slovácko victory in R10 and concluded with the Teplice win seven rounds later. In that space, Jablonec dominated four of their opponents by over a 1-expected goal margin, picking up 14 points — or, in other words, nearly half of their regular season return (30). It was also in that space that Jakub Martinec became the midfield menace nobody was able to figure out for a while, while Vakho flourished in the most advanced role yet. Nemanja Tekijaški and Haiderson Hurtado were getting some unlikely Sparta buzz, and Látal briefly stopped throwing players under the bus in a familiar manner, vindicated after the 9-game winless start.
What went (especially) wrong
That period of good was about as fleeting as it was sudden.
The expiration date on Martinec as a secret weapon soon arrived, and the less inspired experiments trickled in, like Matěj Polidar at LCB (clearly his fault) or even Filip Souček and Matěj Náprstek at RB towards the end. The harsh reality set in immediately via the double header with Prague “S” that saw Jablonec ship 7 goals. The Top 3 generally offered Látal’s team a drastic reality check; those 6 encounters combined for a staggering 16,44 xGA — or 32,6% of the entire 35-game xGA sample. Six games. On the one hand, this is kind of a good sign towards the rest of the matchups Jablonec were expected to hold on in, on the other hand, it is also a clear sign — together with Látal’s longlasting inability to turn man advantage into three points or dominance — of the coach’s ineptitude. Is it down to coaching that Jablonec scored only 0,11 goals per one touch in the attacking box (2nd lowest rate)? Decidedly not. But is it down to coaching that they finished off the 3rd lowest percentage of positional attacks attempted? I’d already suggest so.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Nemanja Tekijaški (18th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Nemanja Tekijaški (98,5 pct at CB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: David Štěpánek
Of all the 2023 signings, Nemanja Tekijaški was the most important for Látal personally, who leaned on him heavily when trying to desperately save Ekstraklasa with Termalica in the spring 2022. He was part of Látal’s set-in-stone centre back partnership in the following 2nd-tier campaign, too. When he turned up in Jablonec nad Nisou, it was only a natural encore for him to proceed to crack the league’s Top 10 of the most utilized players.
For good reason.
Tekijaški was, without any hint of exaggeration, one of the most complete centre backs around in 2023/24. Pourzitidis, Hůlka (significant time spent in midfield), Dweh, Vitík, Chaloupek and Frydrych (only 10 starts) are the other six CBs in the field of 66 who graded out as at least average in the 4 areas of game I define for the purpose of comparing players league-wide — rudimentary defending, dependability & damage control, awareness & dynamism, build-up contribution & threat. Tekijaški is an especially impressive specialist in tight marking, boasting fantastic gap control. He is an accomplished passer, crosser and ball carrier, too — a rare triple threat. While his frequent partner Haiderson Hurtado was implicit in 17% of all danger allowed, Tekijaški was tagged for just 8,1% chances/goals against.
More abstractly, but perhaps tellingly, Tekijaški marks the return of the Great Jablonec Centre Back. My model — albeit in a much less detailed form — goes all the way back to 2015/16 when both Luděk Pernica and Marek Kysela crawled over the 90-percentile bar. They were the only substantial bright spot on a disappointing 7th side. In 2016/17, Pernica actually topped the CB chart while Vít Beneš landed 3rd. They were the only substantial bright spot on an even more disappointing 8th side, soon earning moves to reigning domestic champions (Pernica to Plzeň) and abroad (Beneš to Hungary). That was the end of an era, with Jaroslav Zelený of 2021/22 standing as the lone elite centre back (89,7 pct) since then, also swapping Jablonec for greener pastures (Sparta) on the back of that individual year. Last season, centre backs were Horejš’s downfall, with four of his options meeting my 10-start cut off and Jakub Martinec topping out at 36,1 pct.
This year, it’s a different story, with Tekijaški filling the pizza out diligently:
Funnily enough, it’s a different story also due to the emergence of aforementioned Hurtado whom I’m not nearly as high on, while my own model places him near the top quarter of all centre backs in the league. In a way, I get it too. If there was anything like a “volume defender” in the same way there is a volume dribbler, shooter or crosser, the 29-year-old Colombian would be the dictionary definition. He’s very athletic and agile, possessing a fine leap, so he wins a lot of aerials, puts in the work on interceptions, clearances and blocks, and wins a ton of loose ball duels. At the same time, he acts just like the person who doesn’t speak Czech nor English (something Látal admitted was a huge challenge for his coaching staff), completely independently of any tactical notions or instructions.
That’s the conflicted nature of Hurtado: he would run through the wall for you, and that’s sometimes a good thing, but sometimes it means him literally running through the opponent — leading him to foul 28 times inside his own defensive half, including twice for a penalty (with only 15 players league-wide also going into the double digits, and the next highest total being 14 from Hurtado’s teammate Miloš Kratochvíl). It also often means he steps out of the line at the worst time possible, leaving acres of space behind him, or that he mistimes a jump and doesn’t get into a duel at all.
Hurtado is a good defender, no doubt, but he cannot be relied on, and that — in my eyes anyway — takes away too much value on balance. (Not too mention the frequent play-acting that rubs me personally the wrong way.)
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Last summer, I featured Daniel Köstl as part of Bohemians’ “chip on the shoulder” section ahead of what was effectively a “prove-it” season. He charmed his coach as a new-found wingback solution, but the sample was too small to fully trust it. Sure enough, he entered the season as a wingback regular only to conclude it as a squad player… and mostly a wide CB again.
With Jakub Martinec, it’s a bit similar. He too convinced his coach that he can be an everyday starter further up the pitch, at CAM even; and he too wasn’t a solution after all. A last-gasp extra man pushed forward like Ladislav Krejčí often is for Sparta or the national team? Sure, he’s obviously a fantastic aerial threat, a warrior who seemingly wraps up each game hurt. But only a few teams can afford starting every battle with such a passenger in build-up — and Jablonec is certainly not among those. A formidable target, yes. A key cog in a functioning midfield? Hardly.
It appears smart, then, that Kozel decided from the get-go that he doesn’t want Martinec run around and battle in midfield, instead pegging him in as the starting middle centre back. And that’s where a further dose of intrigue sets in. Martinec wasn’t an especially good centre back in 2022/23 — his pizza chart basically speaking to the same strengths as the one above, seeing him as an excellent header of the ball at both ends of the pitch. One big step he took was in terms of undergoing ground duels in danger areas, where his success rate suddenly jumped from sub-par 57,9% by 15 percent. He also stopped fouling much compared to his prior results. Can he return to his old role and be more effective, or was he just less vulnerable as CDM?
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @OFanouska, @MrGablonzer, @KocourMichal and Šaman for guiding me through the motions of Jablonec’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Jablonec’s squad churn for 2024/25 is most interesting when seen in relation to their neighbours. While Liberec have lost 5 players to loan deals running out, Jablonec only register one such player (Filip Souček) while keeping Sebastian Nebyla and Matěj Polidar on, most importantly. Where Liberec gave 39% of top flight minutes to U-23 players (3rd highest portion in the league)— four of them among those departed loanees, however — Látal was only willing to dish out 17,3% for the benefit of (relative) youngsters (3rd lowest portion) — two of the more prominent ones (Souček, Matěj Náprstek) now gone, and no one really waiting in the wings to step in. Michal Beran ages out of the bracket in August — and he’s the youngest.
On the whole, despite parting with 11 players who registered minutes with Jablonec since last July, there’s not much accumulated turnover to speak of. Had the excitement over a belated Miloš Kratochvíl extension lasted longer, Jablonec would’ve been retaining 81,5% of all mins (6th) and 86% of all goals. One Kratochvíl — 17th most utilized player in F:L — is, meanwhile, enough to drop Jablonec down to 73,5% of mins (11th) and 69,8% of goals.
Biggest upgrade
The last thing Kozel would like to do this season is having to field Vakho anywhere but in the hole or on the wing. Little defensive responsibility, more attacking freedom. That’s how he was able to run rings around Karviná in both games or dominate Slovácko in the first win of the season (signed under both goals). That’s what he wasn’t afforded for long stretches due to Matěj Polidar vacating the left wingback role or Látal souring on David Štěpánek/Michal Černák and needing him at right wingback. He was literally used everywhere, team’s MVP in his own right in a way, and his pizza chart looks rather ugly as a result — making him look like an avid defender in the first place, which is hardly Vakho’s calling. One aspect to base some optimism on going forward: the top notch success rate in the box. The thing is, though, he was mostly prevented from entering the box, saddled by the damned defensive responsibility, recording a measly 1,57 touches per game (compared to, say, Alégué’s 2,96 or even Pleštil’s 2,67).
Why am I telling you all this? Because the need for Vakho higher up should be easier fullfilled with Martin Cedidla in the fold. Zlín fans were always quick to dismiss him as a quality player, portraying him as some sort of a liability, but the fact is he was nowhere near their team’s problem. At 22, Cedidla is already inside the Top 10 of all-time top flight appearances for Zlín and only has 4 assists to show for the 139 starts, so I kind of get why fans would expect more, but his attacking contribution has been substantial anyway. In fact, his rate of entering the penalty area was better than that of Polidar, winger by trade, and his league-wide ranking for the grouping of metrics called “build-up contribution & threat” is also higher (#22 vs #27). Let’s call it the reverse Stockholm syndrome; the more Zlín fans saw him, the more frustrated they grew — and the more for granted they took him.
That being said, it’s not a straightforward decision to start Cedidla at right wingback (it would be different at fullback), with Michal Černák also looking to make waves in his contract year. The 20-year-old who’s seemingly been around forever was once again a force to be reckoned with once in possession and driving up field, but he’s failed to take a major step forward in just about any other area, disappointing hugely in terms of his crossing choices (seeing as many as 15 crosses blocked far too early). I worry he may be too one-dimensional a runner once all the dust settles.
Biggest downgrade
Last year, in the need left to address section, I vouched for “more legs to be added in central midfield”, and after doing nothing back then (other than losing their best deep-lying playmaker to a dispute with the new coach), now Jablonec respond by shedding all those slower but cerebral midfield legs in Hübschman, David Houska and Miloš Kratochvíl at freaking once.
This is not necessarily a bad thing to happen. Jan Fortelný, likely coming over from Sparta, is nothing if not a dynamic, annoying presence. The thing is, he can’t pass for peanuts. He’s just an OK ball progressor via dribbling, that’s all. Michal Beran is this writer’s (guilty?) pleasure and a very good passer, for a change, but we know for a fact he tends to struggle in an isolated double pivot from the last season’s Bohemians experience. If there’s one thing stopping him from moving to a better league, it’s his feet. He’s smart, so he pops up in the right places at the right time (which is why I find the dynamism issues to be overstated) but his fitness levels have never been his strength and he basically doesn’t have a proven partner now. With less shield behind him, he suddenly looked like “only” an above average ball progressor last term, which takes away his sole game-shifting upside. Bohemians coach Veselý admitted it as much, in the wake of Smrž’s and Jánoš’s injuries — he would rather not have Beran run around like crazy.
The hope is that Sebastian Nebyla, now Jablonec’s player proper, will adjust to Czech top flight’s tempo eventually, but as of now he’s looked off the pace quite often, mostly contributing via perfect set piece delivery. That way, he created 5 chances and 1 goal; otherwise he crossed for two goals and created only a further 5 wasted chances from open play. Meanwhile, he committed 17 fouls while drawing only six of them by himself, and got outmuscled far too often. I do think there’s something in him, but I’d want insurance. And that is gone. While Beran appears superior to Kratochvíl in just about every category, taking far more calculated risks than the departed stud who can create something out of nothing but turns the ball over too much to give most of the value back, there’s one area which makes Kratochvíl a better operator on his own (and thus in 3-4-3); he produced the 2nd most defensive actions per game per Wyscout (8,99 vs Beran’s 6,73 — and he’s no slacker himself) and oozed the most defensive activity in the league per Statsbomb, basically defending for right (wing)back at times.
And then there are Hübschman and Houska, two more departures that should (and would) not hurt Jablonec on their own, but together… they appear costly. Hübschman was extremely reliable in ground duels around the box (winning 16/20; the very best rate for a CDM) and not much worse in aerial duels inside his own half (winning 16/26; 4th best rate for a CDM). There’s no natural replacement in the squad for him. Together with Houska, he was still a very good diagonal-charter, too, with the former Olomouc attacking midfielder furthering his reputation of a deep-lying ball spreader. Once again a profile that’s very valuable — and missing from FKJ.
New kid on the block
One good thing about Látal was that, by virtue of necessity, the integration of Matěj Náprstek (an early June arrival, signed off on by Horejš still) and Matouš Krulich got accelerated and fetched Jablonec an extra 4,23 expected points per CSfotbal’s model. Given that neither of the young forwards, one of them a teenager, didn’t meet my 10-start cut-off, it’s unbelievable stuff.
It also made me look silly, as I expected more from David Nykrín — stuck in the third-tier reserves for the entire season — in this space a year ago.
This time around, my job is somehow even more difficult as Jablonec are running out fresh faces. Vojtěch Werani is more than two years removed from his top flight debut, yet still 19 and no closer to making the first team. Jakub Gaši, a late 2005 birthday, made the same kind of a one-minute debut last season but then surprisingly didn’t join up with A-team this past June. Albert Kotlín did, but he’s an 18-year-old number 3 goalkeeper, while Dominik Melka (b. 2005) — virtual unknown to the club’s faithul — was one of those unfortunate guys to act in the barely supported 3-4-3 double pivot.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Central midfield definitely looked too thin and too imbalanced for long, but the fresh arrival of Dudu Nardini could release some pressure and ditch some absurd pre-season experiments like Vakho or David Štěpánek in a two-man midfield. He signed out of nowhere on 10 July, so I had next to no time to research him, but the flawed Wyscout index is a big fan (3rd best central midfielder in the Cypriot top flight) and I suppose a regular Othellos supporter also is, witnessing the Italy-born Brazilian to leave 7/9 points for March and April, when the relegated side scrambled for safety.
With Cedidla very much counted on as a right centre back alternative, then, I can only see two glaring needs left to be addressed. We’ll get to one later as part of the Roster battle to follow section, meanwhile dealing with the absence of a dynamic centre forward. This need does have some internal solutions, but they all come with a “but”. Dominik Hollý is certainly dynamic enough, but he’ll be needed on the wing or in the hole depending on a formation. Even while approaching 34, Jan Chramosta also is, but a torn Achilles is no fun at this age (Michal Kadlec could tell) with Chramosta himself phrasing it that “if” he returns, huge credit belongs to the physio. In the best case scenario, the veteran striker — also shifted to left wing in another frequent 2023/24 experiment —only starts practicing with the team in a week, so there’s a fair bit of runway to be mindful of at this point.
Besides, age has started to show on Chramosta’s performances who still made for a very good all-round contributor last season, whereas now he was much closer to a capable poacher than any other striker type:
Who Jablonec are left with is injured Matouš Krulich, big fella who offers a surprisingly soft touch and cunning use of his hulking frame for his age, but will not make runs in behind the line like Václav Drchal potentially could have in 2023/24, and much the same thing can be said about David Puškáč, at his best with the back to the goal and in the air, whose behaviour/precision in the box and dynamism were huge drags last term. Pelta said some reinforcements would still join up with the team in Austria, but that part of preparation is now over, and Idjessi Metsoko — rumoured to come over from Plzeň at the beginning of the summer with Patrik Vydra, now at Mladá Boleslav instead — is nowhere near to be found. Absent from the July camp with Viktoria, as well, Metsoko is likely dealing with the familiar visa issue, making it difficult for him (or any other African for that matter) to hit the ground running whenever he finally pops up somewhere.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Much is expected from two African wingers who had previously starred together at second-tier Vyškov. Benny Kanakimana failed to make a mark in top flight 293 minuted, after bagging an impressive 14 goals in 2022/23. His older colleague from the opposite flank, Alexis Alégué, got more of a look from Látal this term and unfortunately for Jablonec, just as he was rounding into form (16 chance-creating actions — 10 of them primary — across 5,4 full starts between R12-18) he went down injured, and only cracked the starting XI three more times down the stretch, directly contributing to a goal scored on two of those occasions. Alégué carries an intriguing skillset of a gifted dribbler who doesn’t shy away from passing the ball across/inside the penalty box where only Karabec — a tucked-in playmaker rather than a winger — completed more passes.
- Every year, there comes about a player who’s utterly infuriating in terms of pinning him down positionally to run him through a model or two. This year, that player is Matěj Polidar who started the season as left back in a 4-at-the-back formation, then gradually moved up to a wingback role as Jablonec grew more fond of the 3-at-the-back setup, then moved waaaay back to deputize for a suspended Hurtado at LCB, and finally moved faaaaaaaaaaaar up to effectively wrap up the season as the most advanced member of a trio of versatile wingers-cum-forwards while all of Drchal, Chramosta, Pleštil and Krulich — who’d otherwise be preferred upfront — battled a series of more or less overlapping injuries (it was in that role where he exploded for 2+4). I settled on the FB model, because that’s roughly how he behaved even as a wide CB, but I’m not ready to draw any conclusions or useful trends. Instead, I want to highlight the fact his set piece delivery was almost as valuable a source of chance creation from him (12) as an open-play cross (13), and also that there’s hopefully no such dilemma next year. Kozel is one of the more rigid coaches when it comes to player roles, and Polidar — already turning 25 halfway through the season — can only benefit from some stable deployment at this stage of his career. Per Wyscout tracking, the left winger by trade has thus far spent 2 967 mins at left back, 3 611 mins at left wing(back), 979 mins on the right, and 1 658 mins in the hole or even further up. “By trade” my arse, I suppose.
- Another interesting case of a travelling player is that of David Štěpánek. It seemed like the 27-year-old had finally found his niche as a booming right wingback after dozens of games spent getting exploited for lack of pace at centre back or even holding midfielder. With the smart positioning of Tekijaški behind him, Štěpánek suddenly had the platform to carry the ball and cross capably, chipping in with an assist against both Slovácko and Plzeň in that inspired September-October double header. Forty eight minutes later, this working experiment was inexplicably ditched, to be ressurected in March for some more tormenting of Slovácko (delivering a goal scored), and promptly ditched again. Why oh why. An awful defender who can contribute valuably upfront was shifted back to defence and mostly to the bench, which seems to be his destiny for the inaugural campaign under Kozel, too.
Roster battle to follow
For a longtime, Jan Hanuš the marvelous shot stopper was able to mask Jan Hanuš the detrimental distributor and erratic penalty box presence. These two faces of one man have always co-existed fairly peacefully, combining for a slightly above average goalkeeper in most years. In 2020/21, only three regular custodians prevented more goals. The following campaign, only two pulled off more high-danger saves per game. Last season, he was still net positive in terms of prevented goals, the 7th best shot stopper all told.
This season, he finally hit the brick wall.
Turning 36 in April, Hanuš is of the age where decline can come all of a sudden and in a very steep form; phase he indeed appears to be in the middle of. While stepping up to save a pair of penalties, Hanuš’s reflexes took a drastic turn for worse, allowing him to palm away just 6 high-danger shots out of 35 (excluding penalties). On the whole, he was historically bad for his high standards in terms of prevented goals (5th worst), on top of being one of only two regular goalkeepers who’ve managed to send more balls out of bounds (19) than accurately spread them to the byline (18).
After spending the previous three seasons as an undisputed, unchallenged number 1, Hanuš was suddenly dropped before the split last term, and appears to have an outside track to start the opener. Normally, that’d be a logical conclusion after the campaign he just had; but his challenger is Vilém Fendrich, man who bizarrely returned to the Czech top flight by technically conceding two goals from zero shots and managed to make, on average, one unpunished mistake per his start. As a result, he was actually a positive contributor (earning a decent average mark of 6,2 from Deník Sport), yet also a bomb waiting to explode. Remember this is one of the worst goalkeepers of 2021/22 we are talking about, full of comic relief.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
The road back to recovery will be slow and painful, basically predicts the model. The residue faith from years past is disappearing at a steady pace, with Jablonec getting knocked down by almost 4 points, still stuck at 10th. While the Top 10 placement may not look too bad at first sight, it comes with the 49% probability of repeating the relegation group experience, the sort of a re-run that was only given a 32% likelihood by the model last year.
After the Rada failure in 2021/22, Jablonec were still trusted to earn 12 victories in 30 regular-season matchups. Now they don’t even hit the double digits in our forecast, still predicted to win three extra times compared to their actual 2023/24 record (6 victories, as many as České Budějovice!) and a whopping five extra times compared to their actual 2021/22 record (4). I don’t think people realize quite how little regular-season winning Jablonec have done in the past three years; previously, their freshest memory of a less-than-10-victory campaign started to get made with Barack Obama as the US president and Robert Mugabe in charge of Zimbabwe (2016/17).
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/3. First 1/3 of 23/24 was the most miserable points-wise
The prediction: Kozel won’t see his team score a goal in both Liberec derbies
Here’s a stat I didn’t expect while researching Kozel’s previous stints — he’s unbeaten in fierce rivalry matches thus far. In his first Jablonec go, he became Pelta’s first coaching casualty since the boss’ return in 2007 before he even got to face Liberec; Dukla is no one’s main rival, so he’s off the hook there; then he took on Opava once with Baník (2:1 away win; sacked before the return match of 2020/21); and finally he put in a lowkey stellar job vs Jablonec, going 3-3-0 in his three campaigns at Stadion U Nisy.
That’s all great, but there are two things he’s never lived to experience: he’s never gotten a double over Jablonec (ie. two wins in a season), and his teams have never come out misfiring against arch rivals. I can’t see the former first happening now, but I could see the latter, so there you go. In fact, let me go one further: I say there will be two goalless peformances from Jablonec, both resulting in a tie to keep Kozel’s peculiar streak alive.
A goalless draw may be an unfamiliar sight right now, but the goalless double I’m predicting here has actually happened three times already — in 2018/19, 2003/04 and 1999/00 — while there is no standalone goalless draw, in fact. We’ll keep that tradition alive, you can already start placing bets.
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