2024/25 team preview: FK Pardubice
Can two years be feasibly considered an era? It sounds silly, but it nonetheless feels right when it comes to FK Pardubice under the guidance of Radoslav Kováč. For the brief 64-game period, Pardubice were defined through Kováč, for better and worse, whereas Kováč always saw the club as a mere stepping stone. It was fundamentally an awkward — fuck it — era, one that inevitably precedes a period of some unpleasant soul searching.
Kováč is by all means a talented coach who’s got good ideas and takes inspiration from all across the world. He’s also a true persona who splits the room. Some fans liked his engaged behaviour on the bench; others wouldn’t mind him picking up less yellow cards for that matter. Some fans wholly appreciated his PR and brand of football bringing them the opportunity to watch the likes of Kryštof Daněk, Denis Halinský and Antonín Kinský; others never stopped feeling he cared more for those external relationships than relationships with the town, club and its fans. Some fans acknowledged the perennial struggle for attractive possession-based displays amidst brutal squad churn that made it impossible to maintain any sort of a continuity, ie. identity; others felt like he abandoned some of his principles and tripped himself up with a few selection trends.
Sometimes, in fact, these two groups of fans overlapped to a great extent.
“Was he actually a success or not” is an easy question to ask — and many neutrals have, perhaps even more often than Pardubice fans — but a much tougher one to answer knowing the circumstances. It’s hard to improve set pieces when your entire backline disappears over the summer. At the same time, it’s hard to view the 3-point bump compared to 2022/23 as sufficient progress. We shouldn’t forget Kováč only came to the helm in mid-September, adjusting on the fly, but what to do with the fact he nonetheless earned only one extra win in his only full season at Pardubice in 2023/24?
Truth be told, however much Kováč became a symbol of Pardubice and however much Pardubice breathed through Kováč, both sides must’ve felt relieved upon their break up. Coach himself admitted the relationship was living on a borrowed time ever since the board tried to fire his fitness coach. Kováč turned the decision against the club, ready to resign with the whole coaching staff, forcing the board to back off. It wasn’t exactly a hostage situation, though, as it’d be hard to tell who’s the hostage here.
Insert Jiří Saňák and a welcome chance for a do-over with another younger coach who wears his heart on the sleeve. The performances will be much more pragmatic, seeing a return of the traditional winger most likely, and given Saňák’s superior pedigree in youth football (he enjoyed particular success in bringing up interesting defenders like Lukáš Hůlka or Jakub Klíma while in charge of Mladá Boleslav academy), there may be more focus on grooming Pardubice’s own talent rather than someone else’s.
That’s all nice, but it won’t fill the seats by itself; still a massive challenge for the club whose representatives sometimes appear as though they would be happier with a completely empty new stadium and no unhappy fans to take care of. And boy, unhappy they are: per latest information, the club is at about 30% of their declared goal for season tickets sold (2 200) while fans are gradually leaning towards purchasing tickets for individual games. One reason might be the two regular season wins at CFIG Arena, another one could be the “marketing strategy” of forcing season ticket holders into buying tickets for relegation group matches (with a plus-one offer tbf).
At the conclusion of 2023/24, the club made a big deal of utilizing a new motto “RESTART”. In reality, not much restarting has actually occurred.
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
Ultimately, Kováč will be remembered as an intriguing coach who promised more than what he delivered, and whose best results — curiously — only arrived following the split, inside the relegation group where he never meant to end up. Three victories in 2023 and attacking swagger unseen as of then were followed by four victories in 2024 and once again some sterling underlying numbers, pointing at the 4th best attack and 5th best defence per 5-game rolling xG at the end of the season. Why was there no stretch like this inside 30 rounds that’d push Pardubice closer to Top 10?
It wasn’t all bad across the regular season either, though. Pardubice did manage to pull off back-to-back victories away from home, culminating in an even rarer 3-game winning streak (R18-20). That was only a 3rd period of such sustained success since Pardubice’s promotion in 2020 (they’ve never managed a longer stretch without a loss of points), and a first under Kováč. Also thanks to these two back-to-back wins, Pardubice were actually very consistent in picking up points on the road, earning 1,18 points per trip over 35 rounds, with only five top flight sides actually doing better.
What went (especially) wrong
Consistency was still an issue regardless. That 3-game winning streak was soon followed by 4-game pointless one, in the middle of which stood the terrible performance in the first derby in Hradec Králové in modern era. Kováč admitted he would’ve subbed off 7 players had he had the option available to him on the day, citing awful attitude and intensity. It wasn’t the only 2023/24 stand this could be applied to, and a lamentable number of those came in front of Pardubice’s own fans, who witnessed by far the least dominant home side out there (41,2% xG share, about 3% behind Zlín), with only 1,11 points staying put — also the worst mark in the league.
A typical portion of pain arrived via air. Pardubice defenders saw the most crosses completed in/to the box from open play (7,7) and were once again torched on set pieces, allowing 2,7 corner kicks to be finished off per game. At one point, they allowed Slavia to register 10 shots off corner kicks, by far the only double digit performance in this particular discipline of the campaign (the next best effort was 6 — per Wyscout’s tagging anyway). Considering this constant headache, it’s no wonder Pardubice only managed to outshoot 5 opponents all season long (Bohemians and Budějovice twice), in total earning the lowest share of attempts (39,7%).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Viktor Budinský (129th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Denis Darmovzal (86,8 pct at CDM)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Denis Darmovzal
The entire Top 5 per my MVP model gone — starting with Michal Hlavatý, ending with Marek Icha. The sixth option, Pablo Ortíz, meanwhile stuck in limbo — apparently wanting to come back for another spell in Czechia while his parent club (Midtjylland) refuses to accept Pardubice’s “record” bid. The seventh option, Viktor Budinský, would be a weird choice as the backup goalkeeper, though he certainly wouldn’t be a bad one — performing the most high-danger saves and boasting the second best high-danger save %. By number eight on the club’s leaderboard, we are already reaching wildly — for Ladislav Krobot, whose 2 important goals appear far too insufficient.
And so we arrive at Tomáš Zlatohlávek. He too scored 7 times, but six of those strikes came in even/close game states, with Pardubice sourcing way more value from them as a result. In fact, up until the Zlín penalty in R28, it was true that Zlatohlávek had a hand in all goals Pardubice had scored with him on the pitch. Sure, there were only 9 of those (in 9 games), but still. At one point, he notched a point in six consecutive rounds; mark of an MVP.
At the same time, it must be stressed Zlatohlávek’s limitations at the top of the line-up are also a reason for Pardubice scoring as little with him on the pitch. With ‘Zlatan’ leading the line, they created 5 chances per game; without him (in a bigger sample no less), that number shot up to 6,63. It’s indeed no coincidence, as Zlatohlávek contributes precious little in build-up, barely connecting with teammates, winning just 3 of 17 aerial duels up high, completing the 5th least passes or crosses in/to the penalty area. He’s opportunistic off the ball, pouncing on it cleverly every now and then, but he never keeps it up and his intensity has been woeful throughout the campaign. The many minor knocks inbetween matches are also an unwelcome source of questions, like “can he be actually relied upon?”…
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Two relatively young Vojta’s should, in an ideal world, take over and make Pardubice’s offence their own big show following the twin departure of the two most recognizable faces of the club. Vojtěch Sychra turns 23 this autumn and so it’s about time he shakes off repeated injury troubles (currently suffering from some again) and truly comes of age. His 2022/23 breakout was promising, his 2023/24 follow-up was closer to disappointing. It doesn’t feel like he’ll ever stop being pushed around the edges, but there’s still an intriguing elusive dribbler in him. Sychra will also likely take over Hlavatý’s profile of a foremost ball-chaser and possibly a pressing trigger should Saňák want to have one. He’s absolutely got technical ability to take his game — and prime final output — to the next level of established starter.
Perhaps even more intrigue and promise is, however, carried by Vojtěch Patrák. He had a slow restart at Pardubice, where he previously caught the eye in 2021/22, but just as Kryštof Daněk hit the first set of bumps in 2024, Patrák started to come through. By the spring’s end, he was the focal point and the driving force to the net, finishing off a team-leading 17 chances in 2024 (compared to Daněk’s 9). At the season’s conclusion, he stood tall as the only attacking midfielder more self-sufficient in terms of chance/goal creation than Daněk. His all-season table basically paints a picture of a poor man’s Daněk, always lagging one level below him in every area. Is that ideal? Not exactly, since the former Olomouc starlet is 2,5 years Patrák’s junior. But Patrák is more of a duel threat (finish/creative pass) and an equally willing partner in crime when it comes to give-and-go’s.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @karl__karlsson, @DrajaOfficial, @matejsal, Sajfi96, Veselda31, Tomáš Šimon and Matěj Hromádka for guiding me through the motions of Pardubice’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Waiter, could we please have the Pardubice special? You know, the usual:
6 regulars out, including 3/4s of the backline and a starting goalkeeper, sure
9 loanees off, including one who was behind 16 of our 39 goals, thanks
and the lowest percentage of minutes retained (50,9%) in the entire league
Cheers.
It must be infuriating to watch, and maybe this is another year the trend changes a little bit (with Pardubice only edging towards one loan without an option to buy as we speak), or maybe the team also gets a little bit older and more experienced (league-high 57,3% minutes went to U-23s again), but those are not sure things. As of now, the only certainty is that Pardubice open the season against Sparta of all teams without Kissiedou and potentially all of Krobot, Sychra and Černý who had missed chunks of pre-season and didn’t take part in the dress rehearsal, meaning Saňák could have less than one hundred fifty 2023/24 appearances at his disposal. Across the whole squad; with 61,4% of last term’s experience gone.
Good luck with that.
Biggest upgrade
Look, does absorbing four forwards (one of them a wide one, granted) and shedding none constitute an upgrade? In a way, certainly, but it’s rather too easy to call it one — and rather too easy to see it backfiring eventually.
Zlatohlávek and Krobot are still around and quality, even with their problematic health history, Pavel Černý has also been extended for one more ride (though he’s skipped the entire pre-season to save himself), and yet you’re cramming David Huf, Marzuq Yahaya, Pavel Zifčák and André Leipold in more or less the same space? With this midfield and defence? Leipold closer to a right winger, but Zifčák has always looked better playing through the middle and Huf has also only dabbled with the RW job so far.
I’m genuinely curious what’s the plan with this collection. Will we see Saňák deploy something of a raumdeuter in Müller’s mould off the right byline? Is Černý full-time dropping into the hole like he always does anyway while nominally a no. 9, nowhere to be found in the box (lowest inside-the-box xG)? Or could Zlatohlávek be on the way out eventually?
Either way, I can’t be sure whether this is an upgrade or not, so I’m calling David Šimek instead. He’s long been a duel specialist — be it on the ground or in the air, appearing somewhat elegant with his upright running style — and can single-handedly improve Pardubice’s set pieces which produced a mere 4 goals upfront and bled as many as 11 goals at the back. Šimek was a Top 10 centre back in terms of xG+xA (mostly xG) in 2020/21 and 2022/23 alike, making the most of Marek Matějovský’s signature delivery. Do Pardubice have a similar specialist in the fold now, and isn’t that the real roadblock on the way to replicating Šimek’s prior success in the attacking box? Good question. As a matter of fact, departing Hlavatý and Daněk were responsible for 26 of 30 chances/goals created thanks to a dead ball.
However it turns out, as a defensive specialist, Šimek should at the very least immediately upgrade Ondřej Kukučka who looked pretty exploitable in duels (especially aerial ones) and far too suspect positionally.
Biggest downgrade
There are three obvious candidates in three different lines. I believe I sufficiently covered Michal Hlavatý and his transcending qualities in the Liberec preview, so I’ll just let Statsbomb do all the talking in this space.
The other two downgrades were arguably more hidden to the outside world than they should’ve been, simply because they are “too young” to be considered elite at their respective positions — even though they were absolutely good enough to at least enter the conversation. In Antonín Kinský’s case, it shouldn’t even be up for a debate. He totally was elite.
His ball-kicking ability with both feet is a marvel (leading to one goal and five wasted chances per my notes), his insane reach — both when coming off the line and stretching himself for a save — a freak of nature (leading him to prevent danger 19 times, compared to a mere 4 times he appeared shaky). And it’s not just these “secondary” attributes that make him special; no other goalkeeper pulled off more Top 100 shot-stopping performances per prevented goals than the 21-year-old (Vindahl was on par with him at 7). When you consider that Kinský only really found his game towards Christmas, it’s outright scary to think of what he can do over a full season.
Put it this way: Viktor Budinský was probably the best number 2 in the league last term, yet this is how his output pales in comparison to Kinský:
And then there’s Denis Halinský, another 21-year-old whose hype doesn’t come near that of Tomáš Vlček when he was returning to Slavia a year ago, yet whose pizza chart actually easily wins out on balance. Vlček was a 70-percentile centre back with great upside and glaring holes in his game (too soft in duels at times, too rash in deep tackling, too quick to go down to the ground to block a shot). Halinský is an 83-percentile CB whose most limits have more to do with his platform than his actual ability. The new Liberec arrival is very comfortable on the ball, actually travelling the 3rd longest distance with it at his feet on average and finding the sweet halfspaces at an above average rate, he just never had the creative freedom to cross from deep as much as Vlček. And yet he grades out extremely well, because he ranks in the top quarter of centre backs in 7 metrics — only Čihák (10), Dweh, Tekijaški and Kričfaluši (8) were more impressive across the board.
I’m honestly sad Halinský was allowed to just quietly follow Kováč who’s made him considerably stronger and better in holding a high line. In the shadows of Chaloupek or Vlček, he feels like an afterthought as a Slavia prospect. In reality, he’s as complete an under-21 centre half as Martin Vitík; someone who should immediately walk into the senior NT bubble.
New kid on the block
After consistently lurking in the top echelons of the U-19 top competition in 2020-23, Pardubice’s youngsters suddenly stopped punching above their weight and started worrying for the top flight status, dropping from 2nd to 12th. The main reason, however, wasn’t any sudden lack of talent but rather a mass promotion of U-19s to the senior 3rd tier where the reserves feature. In the end, U-19s survived by three points, while Pardubice “B” were still much closer to the bottom than to the very top with their 38-point haul.
This development wasn’t without a dramatic follow-up. B-team’s coach Pavel Němeček, freshly a holder of UEFA PRO licence, was reportedly eyeing a job at nearby second-tier Chrudim amidst his demotion to U-19s. There he now partners with former Pardubice player Ondřej Vencl, and the idea is for this move to facilitate young players’ ascension up the ladder. As of now, there’s one candidate to make the leap this summer — Václav Jindra (b. 2006), undersized but positionally smart centre back, who’d potentially skip ČFL altogether (has only featured there four times as a U-19 star). He’s quite likely to earn a full start very early in the season next to Šimek.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Much like there’s a non-zero chance Halinský had a better season per underlying numbers than most fans realized/thought in real-time, the exact opposite could be true about Pablo Ortíz. It’s not like he wasn’t an outstanding catch for Pardubice — 24-year-old from Danish top club — and it’s not like he was any sort of an active liability, but there were vast limits to his game I didn’t necessarily notice to the extent his pizza portrays.
Did he make a difference in possession? No, but was he a drag that didn’t help at all and posed next to no threat on attacking set pieces? I have just found out. Was he suspect in closing down the gap with his marker, often leaving him to fly past while seemingly underestimating the situation? Sure, but was it enough of a concern for it to translate into the 11th worst success rate in loose ball duels? I genuinely had no idea. Was he a rock in aerial duels? No, but was he 20% worse than Halinský, winning only 10/26 duels inside his own box? Seriously — he was?! It didn’t appear as though he was below average in some other important metrics such as duel/ball losses leading to shots against or possession-adjusted interceptions either.
That being said, there’s no doubt Pardubice are missing a left-sided centre back capable of starting on Matchday 1. I’m not sure they are right to be desperate to bring Ortíz back in particular (he might not be worth the splash), but they would be right to be desperate to bring in someone. That’s easily because Jindra is 18, Tomáš Koukola is 22 and only 309 minutes deep into his career across the two top tiers (!), and Jan Kalabiška… is not a CB.
Honestly, I understand Slovácko were in deep trouble senior personnel-wise, but how this guy got preferred over just about any teenager/youngster towards the end of the season, is still beyond me. Kalabiška mostly looked like a confused elderly searching for that one last elusive Lidl discount, with his pizza chart appearing passable only due to attacking numbers inflated by 713 minutes he spent filling in more familiar roles than LCB.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- First off, some due dilligence. Leipold and Zifčák obviously arrived a couple of hours after my deadline, which effectively pushes Appiah Ansu out of the picture who didn’t feature in the last two friendlies. William Mukwelle and Enzia Chukwuebuka belatedly opened the pre-season with the B-team on 8 July, while I had no idea at the time where David Pech most likely slots in. It now appears to be the central midfield, forming more of a flat 4-5-1 than the 4-4-2 pictured above. Neither Yuzvak nor Stejskal have been signed at the time of writing. You can cross out Stradiņš and Pech after all, and insert Adam Fousek as an alternate for both CM and LM. The former Zbrojovka player returns home, but has always been more of a luxury player which FKP cannot afford now; a genius pass one time, slow and inaccurate other times.
- After releasing Pech from a trial, Pardubice seem determined to roll with Dominik Mareš challenged by Michal Surzyn who’ll once again be ready to switch from flank to flank in case Kalabiška’s height is needed at LB. Mareš was a lot out of depth last term, carrying the ball upfield at a respectable rate, but otherwise doing fuck all for the team’s offence.
- Speaking of Surzyn, he was my rather obvious choice for the “chip on the shoulder” section last summer upon a surprise return to Pardubice, and he didn’t let himself down. He hasn’t undergone any rapid makeover, but he was mostly back as the dynamic presence from 2020/21, posting above average marks in terms of possession-adjusted interceptions and successful loose ball duels. His cross selection has also improved, going from 20% of crosses blocked early to a league above average 12,3%. Plus, he’s improved as a passer, landing in 70+ percentile for both horizontal stretches and meters gained vertically.
- And while we are at it, let’s check in on the 2022 “chip on the shoulder” pick, too. Back then, Emil Tischler was already a former coup (bargain bin buy from Slovácko) turned the 2nd least effective winger. This year we are talking about a fullback who shared some similarities with Surzyn… and also 2021/22 Tischler. Then, I was wondering how the hell can a regular winger register only four successful penalty area entries from open play. Now, I do not wonder anymore as he was dead last even among fullbacks, tapping out at seven successful entries for a change. Still, at least he wasn’t a complete black hole offensively in terms of expected goals and assists… *remembers over 42% of his xG total came in that goalmouth scramble featuring Michal Reichl in R1*… oh well. I tried.
Roster battle to follow
I love a good battle for central midfield supremacy in the wake of a maestro’s departure, and Pardubice have all the potential in the world to give us a proper one. “Proper” in terms of mirroring quality levels, mind, as this is bound to be a tight race likely featuring a blind horse or two.
The one candidate lagging behind as of now is Laurent Kissiedou — for obvious reasons. He’s been waiting for his visa in Côte d’Ivoire for a virtual eternity, training individually throughout the entire off-season. He won’t come ready, however many happy, smiling pictures he’ll have managed to post on Instagram by the time he does cross the Mediterranean Sea. This is a huge complication for the player especially considering he was finally growing a bit more assertive on the ball after doing nothing for Pardubice’s build-up in the early goings. Right now, he at least appears to be a capable ball carrier through the middle who doesn’t concede possession. At least.
Should Denis Darmovzal eventually return to full health, he may as well usurp the role of the ball progressor for himself. At his best, he can look like a second coming of Sergio Busquets, very elegantly twisting and turning, connecting with teammates, promptly kickstarting counters. At his worst — which is too often still — he can look horribly off the pace. For what it’s worth, I’m a big believer in Darmovzal’s upside, but he must stay fit.
As long as these two are not available, Kamil Vacek is still ready to step in. The 37-year-old with a boyish look was a bit of a Kováč’s guilty pleasure, but credit where credit is due, he’s recovered some of his passing ability and was more dependable defensively than in years prior per my model. At the opposite end of the age spectrum, Štěpán Míšek could blossom at fresh 19.
Speaking of guilty pleasures… Tomáš Solil. Quo vadis? Fresh off signing a rich longterm contract for no good reason, the former U-19 NT mainstay has a lot to prove himself to the new coach. I, for one, didn’t get at all why he was seemingly one of the first names on the teamsheet for Kováč, since he’s alarmingly vulnerable in the air for a tall guy (6/19 aerial duels won in his own box), doesn’t have an adequate passing range, doesn’t cover free space effectively and can’t provide any support attacking from deep.
More to the point: look at how colourful and expansive Solil’s pizza chart was in 2020/21, his top flight debut at 20–21. And now look at how much he backtracked to his shell (and hardly a comfort zone) in 2023/24. It’s a sad evolution of an up-and-coming CAM who can only contribute some rudimentary defending as a CDM three years and one serious injury later.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
It’s quite curious: last summer, Pardubice fell short of the 35-point regular-season threshold in 75% simulations, pegged for a mere 30,3 points. It was supposed to be enough for 12th place. This year, they don’t reach the same bar in about 65% cases, good for almost two extra points, yet projected to rank 13th. Sometimes the pieces simply just fall in awkward places yknow.
Either way, just like last July, it’s up to me to note that the model is likely too high on Pardubice’s chances of survival. A year ago, that likelihood stood at 16%, lowered to 13% midway through the season despite Pardubice sitting just two points above the first relegation play-off spot. The slight correction was dead on. Two years ago, it was the exact opposite, with the model doubling down on Pardubice as a serious relegation candidate at Christmas, bumping the chances of going down from 22% up to 59%!
What will it be now? For me, Pardubice are a sneaky favourite to take the fall for the first time, whereas this year’s model is the most bullish of all.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/3. Černý did score in a Hradec derby, but not in Hradec
The prediction: Ladislav Krobot will bag all his 24/25 goals before the break
The rationale: Another goal-related prediction for Pardubice, and one more concerning the club’s icon. Sounds weird? Well excuuuse me, but this is the 3rd highest scorer in Pardubice’s top flight history (11) we are talking about; one who’s scored every 148 minutes (best rate ever) and contributed the 2nd most winning goals (3) despite only taking part in 43 games.
Krobot is truly a gift that keeps on giving (strange stats). He was the epitome of Pardubice’s suffering at home. At the start of April, it was mind-blowingly true that FKP had not scored a single goal at CFIG Arena with Krobot on the pitch, while celebrating eight times away from home in a smaller game sample. That curse was only broken in R27, soon before Krobot famously proceeded to notch a hat trick in a home survival clincher.
Krobot is also lowkey battling it out with Huf for the title of the best super-sub in the club’s history. Huf has bagged 11 second-half goals to go with a single one before the break, while Krobot’s ratio is 10:1. It’s neck-and-neck right now, but it won’t be at the end of the season. I’m calling it: Krobot will spend the entire campaign only finding the net inside the first 45 minutes.
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