2024/25 team preview: SK Dynamo České Budějovice
They say that when you hit rock bottom, there’s only one way to go from there: up. Dynamo České Budějovice, and its owner Vladimír Koubek specifically, would disagree. You can always go on searching for a lower point. Of course, from Koubek’s perspective, Dynamo may have never even approached the so-called rock bottom, just a few bumps on the road.
It would take a properly deluded person to think that, but Koubek absolutely is one. Here’s a man who thought it’s a good idea to part ways with the sporting director only two days into his search for a new coach, before Christmas, leaving the club completely paralyzed ahead of a crucial month. Here’s a man who drove up Dynamo’s pricetag so much he’s been unable to act on his December 2023 promise of being on the verge of selling, in the process partnering with British company Footify, unbearably dodgy at first sight (predictably breaking a promise of pouring 1 mil. EUR into the club), and blaming belated wages on money stuck in Sberbank, excuse he literally used in March 2022 when it was at least believable.
At best, he’s a naive (self-proclaimed) intellectual who’s trying to do the good thing(s) while getting more and more entangled in a web of lies and debts he’s constructed; sitcom character. At worst, he’s a pathological liar who never had the money to run a football club in the first place, and when that became patently obvious, he’s tried to generate compassion in a common person while his ego quite simply doesn’t allow him to bite the bullet and sell the club off quickly; real problem that won’t simply go away.
Be it however it is, Koubek has at least facilitated an image that makes Dynamo, externally, unsuitable as a partner for the rest of the Czech top flight (remember the only player owned by a Czech club to come over since last summer is Florent Poulolo, loanee from Boleslav) and unsupportable for a decent chunk of fans (ultas — who’ve already buried Koubek and lead an open war with the club which even closed their sector as a punishment for pyrotechnics — announced a boycott of Hradec game on 13 December, with the attendace swiftly dropping to 783 people) and, internally, unable to retain employees of any sort, most recently seeing the PR officer and two first-team goalkeeping coaches (one of them due to a conflict with the ultras himself) waving goodbye to the club in a matter of months.
All this had led Dynamo to the actual brink, an extremely tight relegation play-off with regional rivals, tied with an existential threat of losing the iconic stadium to them should Táborsko prevail and replace Dynamo at the top (or not losing, but at least a stadium-sharing arrangement had been agreed with the town hall should the scenario of a Southern Bohemia swap occur). Only a big goalkeeping show prevented Dynamo from finding a new rock bottom, which then seemed to be around the corner as reports of František Chvalovský and Emil Kristek entering the club gained traction.
Chvalovský is, of course, a former Chmel Blšany patron who was supposed to end up behind the bars for 10 years due to a banking fraud, but was practically saved by the controversial 2013 Presidential amnesty. Kristek, at least, is a lifelong fan whose CEO stint at the club concluded with the highest top flight finish in a decade (8th), much improved financial situation and almost-finished youth sporting centre Složiště. The thing is, that stint concluded exactly 20 years ago, Kristek is now a director at a second-tier ice hockey club and very resolutely denied he’s returning just this past January, at least not in the capacity of a director or CEO (that’d probably be Pavel Marek, formerly of Liberec, who’s already unofficially taking over from Koubek in terms of day-to-day running of the club).
It appears we’ll know more very soon, though, since a press conference was scheduled for Wednesday just as I was readying to hit the “Publish” button. A Kristek-facilitated takeover could be announced there, but it may go in a very different direction than what was expected. Per iDnes, more of an internal shift is in the pipeline, with Dalibor Jirka of Dynamo’s academy moving upstairs, financially backed by unknown Austrian investors.
What remains otherwise; what to hang onto these days as a Dynamo fan? The coaching duo was born and bred in České Budějovice, is therefore adequately passionate and relatable to a common fan, and has won titles in their playing career days with Slavia (Jiří Lerch) and Sparta (Jiří Kladrubský). “Just win” might be the only mantra that applies to Dynamo, an unusual workplace now, as much as it applies to any other Czech club.
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
What seemed like a panic move on the eve of the relegation group battle, worked the treat at least on one front. Martin Sladký, ditched to focus on his head coaching career with Dynamo’s women and now reserves, could still have been of some use, but Zdeněk Křížek — relieved of his goalkeeping coach duties — might have been a part of the problem all along. He left soon after David Šípoš made the latest of mistakes, letting a Mihálik long-ranger past him, but it was the Slovak custodian who was then a hero of the hour — first, clearly the best Dynamo player following the table split, saving 1,59 goals above expected in five games that fetched the team a combined 5 points, and then standing on his head vs Táborsko, preserving a 1:0 lead.
As for team-wide achievements, Střelecký ostrov was the stage for Dynamo once more. That’s where the team won all of their six 2023/24 games (and picked up a whopping 82,8% of all points, leaving just five for the road), and those victories often came in the best moments, with České Budějovice stunning all of Ostrava, Olomouc and Liberec — borderline Top 6 teams — at ‘Střelák’. What’s more, Dynamo actually outshot these opponents 45:41 and avoided equalling the club’s longest losing streak (8) with the completely unexpected yet deserved Baník demolition (3:0) to open the spring (71st best xG performance of the season league-wide, actually — and their best).
What went (especially) wrong
Off the pitch, just read the opening few paragraphs.
On the pitch, not much less — especially defensively.
It started off with an historic run of porosity, their 17 conceded goals inside the first four rounds unrivalled since Czechoslovakia ceased to exist in 1993, and concluded with the third worst average of goals conceded in the club’s post-war history (2 is only “beaten” by 2,4 in 2014/15 in modern era). Particularly courtesy of that rough early stretch, Dynamo’s first-half goal difference at the end of the season read a brutal minus-20. Their non-penalty xG share ended up being league-worst, even below Zlín (38,3%). They were incredibly easy to get penetrated once again, allowing the most deep completed passes in/to their penalty area (9,8), preventing only 51,1% penalty area entries (2nd worst success rate), with the opponents needing the least positional attacks on average to enjoy a touch in their box (1,39).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Jan Suchan (43rd in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Jan Suchan (68,3 pct at CAM)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Vicent Trummer
Dynamo’s only luck is the age curve Jan Suchan is currently on. He’s not old by any means, and the club has received bids on him regardless, but a 28-year-old attacking midfielder requiring freedom and as little defensive responsibility as possible simply won’t receive as much love as the talent would dictate if he was, say, 23 or 24. That’s when players on his position normally enter their peak years; phase of the career Suchan is slowly but surely aging out of at the moment, having spent his theoretical best years (2019-23) in the second tier, finally earning a promotion through an 18-point campaign for Martin Hyský’s Vlašim last season. Now he’s got an even number of top flight and second-tier appearances (80) under his belt.
Thus, in a way, Suchan constitutes one of the greatest “what if” stories in Czech football. He was a youth international and an essential part of one of the most dominant U-19 teams in memory, helping Příbram to win the top flight for the first time ever with six rounds to spare and paving the way for Chaluš, Hlavatý, Jedlička or Květ to follow up with the famous UEFA Youth League R16 scalp of CSKA Moscow. While his star teammate Petr Rys went to Jablonec later that year (2015), he and Aleš Matějů headed to Plzeň where only one of them thrived. It decidedly wasn’t Suchan who had sorted through six clubs, four of them as a Viktoria loanee, without ever suiting up for Plzeň in the league before finally landing at Dynamo. To compensate.
Today, it’s no exaggeration to say that had it not been for Suchan, České Budějovice would’ve most likely gone down directly. Through his 7 goals — only one of them coming from the spot — Suchan added 6,84 expected points to the team’s total per CSfotbal’s immaculate model. Of those who struck gold at least 5 times over the season, only Chramosta’s tallies were more valuable on average. It was Suchan who scored the clincher in the dying minutes of the famous Liberec comeback win (from 0:2 to 3:2). It was Suchan whose delivery forced Pardubice to split points with Dynamo, completely against the run of play. It was only a pair of Suchan’s goals what didn’t allow Zlín to take all 3 points from Střelecký ostrov in Round 24, a six-pointer that ultimately proved to be possibly the most decisive one.
In all, 9/10 of Suchan’s points and 11/12 of his goal contributions came in the last 15 rounds. He was directly involved in 47,8% of all Dynamo goals over the most crucial period. In terms of tangible output, he was the definition of an MVP when it mattered the most. In terms of underlying numbers, he was a stud too, exhausting opponents with relentless foul drawing (earning 14 dangerous set pieces in process), prompt through balls and excellent offensive duel behaviour, navigating tight spaces expertly.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Up until last season, only Filip Zorvan could rival Lukáš Havel when it came to garnering votes as part of the man-of-the-match contest on the official league website. In the four seasons, he opened a top flight game 94 times, ultimately getting voted the best Dynamo player on 36 occasions.
Yeah, trust me, he was never that good.
At the same time, though, Havel was always a willing blocker with a lot of interceptions to his name, simply a fundamentally important part of the overwhelmed backline that needed to do a truckload of blocking and intercepting. He’s also the only recent graduate of the well-run club academy — the sole current source of pride for Dynamo — to break through in a sea of disappointment, and from July 2023, he’s acted as a captain, too.
Safe to say, the eventual audition as a full-time captain didn’t go nearly as well as planned for the grandson of great local hero Adolf Havel whose youth coaching had contributed to the development of the high-profile likes of Karel Poborský, Jiří Němec or Roman Lengyel. Havel was first benched by Round 9, and for a longtime, the penultimate autumn round was the last time he got to wear the armband. Through combination of Florent Poulolo’s arrival and his own injury, Havel only featured for 122 minutes in the spring, not trusted even for the two Táborsko showdowns.
With Poulolo and Martin Králik, his predecessor as captain, now gone, Havel is by far the most senior centre back in the fold, presumably tasked to carry a 19-year-old — be it Ondřej Čoudek or his namesake Novák — at the heart of a depleted defence. Maybe this sort of a mentor-esque role will suit him, but there’s little to suggest he’s ready going by his torrid 2023 form. He suddenly forgot how to block and how to generally move (fourth worst success rate in loose ball duels and one of the most frequent culprits in terms of switching off on defence and fouling in his own third of the pitch).
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @CernobilaKuze and @Waldic13 for guiding me through the motions of Dynamo’s pre-season
Squad turnover
The only club capable of following Pardubice in lockstep, České Budějovice are, as of now, also retaining barely a half of all minutes distributed in 2023/24 (52,7%). They’ve lost five regulars, two of them fitting inside the league’s Top 50 of most used (Králik ranked 7th, Patrik Hellebrand 29th). In the disastrous case they don’t manage to hold onto Suchan and Vincent Trummer, who are drawing some interest, they’d lose players ranked 24th and 36th, too. It would be unprecedented, leaving Dynamo with only 14 team of the week shortlist appearances on board — of the season total of 49.
Losing 5 members of the most usual starting XI is bad enough, but it’s especially bad news for a team as rigid as Dynamo were in the spring. You may recall the coaching duo basically never reached for a substition before the 75th minute, and routinely only ever did so 2 or 3 times per normal game. That ultimately meant as many as 6 outfield players topped the 2000-minute bar, with Wale Musa Alli falling just outside league’s Top 50 (56th) and costing Dynamo an unrivalled 12 goal and 34 chance contributions.
Biggest upgrade
I don’t know. You don’t know. And the funny thing is: neither do they.
In what can only be called a cast of misfits, Dynamo have brought in 5 new faces neither of which is a household name. Juraj Kotula probably comes closest — with his 538-minute top flight experience while at Zbrojovka Brno (2020/21). He’s probably the only arrival to immediately feature in the starting line-up, courtesy of Dynamo gradually shedding pretty much everyone who’s appeared at right back (David Broukal, Sladký, Uroš Lazić). He’s also the only arrival plausibly appearing as an upgrade at season’s end.
Marvis Ogiomade? He may get his share of starts at left wing, but he’s up against Alli as a recent sub at 2nd-tier Jihlava, so no chance he’s seen as an upgrade. Michael Martin, belated addition to the central midfield deck, can call upon a combined 120 minutes of 2023/24 league football split between Sweden’s top flight and Austria’s second tier. Marcel Köstenbauer is still young (22) and has a pedigree of an Austrian U-19 international, but he’s yet another unknown to battle it out for the goalkeeper no. 1 role while fans understandably wish for more stability and predictability. Still, at least he’s mildly impressed in pre-season, which is something that cannot be said about centre back Nicolas Keckeisen who was specifically named by Kladrubský as one player who didn’t leave an adequate mark while tested only to be introduced by the club as a new arrival less than 24 hours later.
I mean, we know you are desperate, but at least mask it a little bit, please…
Out of all these, I’m most intrigued by Köstenbauer, even if he blocks the promise of homegrown Colin Andrew (who broke his finger towards the end of 2023/24). Martin Janáček is no longer a promise, arguably having whiffed on too many chances to establish himself as a dependable starter at 23 (though it’s worth noting he was 3rd best pure shot stopper per my model), and it’s not hard to upgrade on this pizza chart below, featuring the 4th least prevented goals and 2nd most misplaced passes inside own half.
Biggest downgrade
For all the defensive shortcomings, Dynamo stood tall among all relegation candidates as one outfit that didn’t suffocate one’s creativity and flair. Per Statsbomb, Patrik Hellebrand completed the most ball carries, while Wale Musa Alli excelled the most in terms of the total amount of meters gained.
Funnily enough, those are probably not the areas where either of them will be missed above all. Hellebrand was, first and foremost, the heir apparent to Jakub Hora’s deep distribution. They both couldn’t be relied on in terms of backtracking and any sort of defending altogether, but they both fit inside the Top 12 when it comes to ball spreading and progression. Hora once again played the most diagonals and accurate through passes per 90.
I totally get how a coach and sporting director would arrive at the conclusion of Hora not being the ideal holding midfielder for a team struggling to keep the ball out of the net. At the same time, I also get how a coaching tandem would be split in their views of Hora the contributor (reported at the time when he was cast aside as the official scapegoat). His value on the ball was still massive, and it was a super big call to ditch him.
Who masked the loss in the spring was none other than Hellebrand, himself the 5th most avid diagonal spreader who was the most efficient ball progressor when it comes to meters gained per possession loss. This time around, however, there is no fall back plan. Marcel Čermák, the only senior internal solution, has fared admirably in a deeper role than what he was used to in 2022/23, but he’s at his best at both ends of the pitch. In the middle, he fights, he battles, but he doesn’t push the play at an adequate rate. Where Hellebrand was the most efficient progressor, he was 7th least.
And then there’s Alli, himself a progressive cheat code — one of the very best among wingers. He beats defenders for fun, earns a lot of chances simply just by engaging in a duel and getting fouled or pummelling through, and can be relied on for a successful penalty area entry. He alone cracked the box 72 times, besting David Douděra (71) for the most times over the season, and doing far better than the second most prolific teammate (Suchan at 49), let alone the third one (Trummer at 30).
Alli is not without his drawbacks — for someone who was this often near the goal, he created a relative little for himself or his teammates, often getting stuck on the perimeter — but there’s zero debate whether he’ll be missed.
New kid on the block
With the exception of one covid season cut dramatically short (after 8 rounds), 2011/12 was the last campaign Dynamo U-19 finished in the Top 5 of the Czech top flight despite actually being ever-present. Up until this season, when they wound up on par with Baník Ostrava and just three points behind Slavia. It wasn’t the only category which managed to keep up with the big guns, as the class of 2009 followed up on a Top 3 finish at U-14 level with a runner-up finish as U-15s, whereas U-13s triumphed outright.
Yet, first team’s pre-season was short on any particularly new face. Ondřej Novák (b. 2004) has edged ever so close to the starting line-up after signing his first professional deal, but he had already featured on A-team’s roster to start the spring and won’t even be a teenager come next campaign. He barely qualifies, together with Petr Zíka or returning Vojtěch Hora. Meanwhile, Tuguldur Gantogtokh (b. 2005) — promoted to 3rd-tier reserves after crushing the U-19 competition — didn’t even join up with the A-list now, and the same goes for Martin Prášek (b. 2003) who tallied 16x in ČFL!
Maybe some mysterious injuries are behind this, but it’s more likely the sheer amount of tested no-names who flood the temporary summer roster each year. It’s an everyday reality of a poor top flight club like Dynamo.
Sure, the likes of Sebastien Böhm (now 23), Robin Polanský (22) or Tomáš Hák (20) have previously turned up for the first-team without a prior sign, but it’s still disappointing to look at the final 2023/24 U-19 matchday squad and recognize only one name — last year’s signing Thomas Jungbauer. Neither he was seen at the start as well as the end of A-team’s preparation.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Same old same old. The defensive line is laughably thin in depth, just like central midfield where you can just swap Danel Dongmo (tested and praised but as yet unsigned) for Michael Martin. Matouš Nikl is both the second most experienced centre back, the sole backup for one fullback position after mostly wrapping up the spring there (before absurdly making way for Jiří Skalák at RB, the relegation play-off experiment that should never be spoken about around a Dynamo fan), and potentially the go-to solution if Michal Hubínek’s fitness continues to be an issue. In pre-season, Nikl had a run at no. 8 role in midfield, which I wouldn’t have guessed, but with Pavel Zíka moving to left wing in the dress rehearsal, there could be an avenue to explore. Generally, there are literal dozens of avenues this depth could develop through… and it’s not a good thing.
I guess some things are more workable than others, but one that could prove to be a huge stumbling block is the absence of an experienced, dependable centre back. For all the question marks that littered the previous Dynamo depth charts and his own performances beyond the inaugural season, there was always a Martin Králik to build around. Now you don’t have that anchor, and you can easily consider yourself screwed because you don’t tend to find these defenders thrift shopping in Austria.
Sure, Králik took a wild step back in terms of reliability, and maybe a homegrown youngster is just as willing to jump into shots and put his forehead to action in danger areas, but one underrated attribute of Králik is his long-range passing and generally solid distribution from the back.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- I feel like I’ve mentioned all the important updates on the depth chart above, so let me proceed straight to some pizza charts I want to share with you. One I was excited for, and quite disappointed to see, belongs to Samuel Šigut. He was undoubtedly a bit of a relevation on the right wing, at times utterly flying past his markers, but it’s never a great sign when your winger only grades out as top notch in defensive activity. Overall, the above average metrics below all have something to do with dynamism and single-mindedness which Šigut can definitely call his strength. Adding some more poise to his game wouldn’t hurt, though.
- That being said, Jiří Skalák has a *lot* more to add to his own pizza chart as Šigut’s likely rival. He too can get stuck in, but that’s literally the only positive (?) aspect left on his game; a bit too soon to observe something like that when he’s still “only” 32. He was never the smartest, he was never particularly creative (0,17 xA and two primary chance-creating actions) and now that he can’t win duels like he used to in his Mladá Boleslav glory days (prevailed in 8/34), he’s only an empty shell.
- Moving to the left, welcome to one of the biggest finds of 2023/24 campaign which my model doesn’t exactly fancy: Vincent Trummer. I think he has a lot to offer as a tucked in creator and poised crosser, who’s comfortable in bringing the ball forward at his feet as well as passing it (there was only one other fullback outside Top 4 landing in 70+ percentile for meters gained via both passing play and runs with it), but those attacking numbers don’t pop quite enough to compensate for his poor defensive acumen, showing especially in duel behaviour and positional sense/marking where he just far too frequently falls asleep.
Roster battle to follow
Switching back to the other side of the pitch: Kotula is both the right back starter and the first left back alternative, provided you don’t want to admit to yourself that Pavel Osmančík might be needed in the backline again after bizarrely opening 2023/24 as the designated right back — and that in itself is something to follow, I suppose. The bar could hardly be lower on the right:
At the same time, it’s not hard to see someone else crop up as a right back starter. Skalák is one candidate, provided Lerch and Kladrubský haven’t learned anything, but I wouldn’t bet against Nikl first and foremost, since Hubínek looks ready to start the season in midfield judging by pre-season.
Nikl is a spider-like defender who kind of profiles like Marek Icha in that he’s tall without being dominant aerially. He climbed up to 28 aerial duels in his own box, only coming out on top from 11 of those, so he’s got some learning to do in terms of putting all his 191 centimeters to effective use. He’s also a shockingly casual defender who’s had a hard time anticipating.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
In the last two years, the model was consistent in seeing Dynamo as a clear relegation group member (between 80-85% likelihood of landing there) that will earn around a point-per-game inside 30 rounds (29,2 points in both years to be precise, good for 13th) and won’t have trouble fighting the prospect of actual relegation off (21% chance of eventually going down).
Now the tide has turned dramatically on Dynamo. They are not the most overwhelming relegation favourite we’ve seen (Teplice were 68% likely to go in 2022) but they do beat last year’s Karviná who were still more likely to survive than not (53%). For Dynamo, it’s a tad less (48%), while getting stuck in the relegation group is now almost a certainty (only 7% likelihood of landing in the middle group; ie. halfed prospect compared to 23/24).
And if that’s not enough, consider the following: Zlín had the exact same regular season record (6-7-17) and almost the same points (25,3 vs 25,7) projected at this point last year. Could this be a bad relegation omen?
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/3. Nikl didn’t earn a U-21 call-up while playing for dad
The prediction: Zdeněk Ondrášek will score his last top flight goal at Eden
The rationale: A surprising portion of the footballing world is now at least vaguely aware of Zdeněk Ondrášek for one reason, and one reason only: him scoring on his national team debut to sink England. At Slavia’s Eden. By contrast, only the faithful Dynamo fans with the best memory might recall Zdeněk Ondrášek bagging one of his first Czech top flight goals (4th), also coached by Jaroslav Šilhavý (!), in a 2:3 Dynamo loss at what was then Synot Tip Aréna. Or, in other words, Slavia’s Eden — in 2010 still a new sight. It was also against Slavia — though not at Eden — that Zdeněk Ondrášek announced his return to the big Czech stage, scoring in Round 2 of 2023/24.
This time, I’m predicting he’ll close the chapter at Eden and nowhere else, specifically by scoring his last top flight goal in front of Tribuna Sever. OK, not necessarily in front of it — I’m not aiming for the right half as well — but you get it. Why is this bold? For multiple obvious reasons. First, people tend to not score at Eden — in fact only 11 different players did over the course of last term. Second, Dynamo travels to meet Slavia in the second round already when they most likely resemble a tire fire. Third, Ondrášek was one of the most clinical finishers of 2023/24, so to think that he won’t celebrate beyond R2 is… well, bold. I’m summoning ‘Tugy’ to unseat him!
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