Taking a temperature check of my pre-season Fortuna:Liga bold predictions
My favourite part of the pre-season series of 2021/22 Fortuna:Liga previews was coming up with a “bold prediction” of how the season unfolds for each team, and half the fun is looking back at them and seeing how right or wrong I was. It’s mostly various degrees of wrong, of course, but it doesn’t appear to be a completely hopeless exercise either. Not yet anyway.
This is how we’ll go about it: each of my predictions was marked on a scale from 1 to 5 based on their individual “boldness degree”. Five was for the boldest, one was for not so bold, which should — in theory — correlate greatly with likelihood, so I’ll give myself 1 imaginary point for every right not-so-bold prediction and 5 imaginary points for every right extremely bold one.
How many have I banked already? Erm… wait for it. Like, literally wait for it.
The “You can already forget about it” category
Michal Papadopulos will score more penalty goals than any other
You may remember I sort of backtracked on the whole thing as I was typing out my bold rationale for it, so it’s no surprise I’m finding myself too far out. Karviná have only benefitted from one penalty all season long, with Papadopulos predictably surrendering the responsibility to Kristi Qose, and to make matters worse, the veteran has already notched 4 non-penalty goals. No way I’m squeezing 5+ penalty goals out of this scenario. Minus 5 points.
Teplice won’t win a home game until the spring 2022
Look, who could’ve predicted Jablonec would be so rubbish this season? They torpedoed a prediction I felt pretty good about in just Teplice’s second home stand of this term, and even if they had to wait four months for another triumph, last time I checked, two victories were still more than zero. Minus 3 points.
Tomáš Necid won’t register a single shot against Karviná
Not only did he participate as a finisher in the recent 3:0 win, but he also converted on his only shot, making everyone forgive him for his goalless string of 9 shot attempts vs Karviná in 2020/21 (total of 1,25 xG). Minus 5 points.
Václav Jílek will be voted the manager of the month September
*gulp*
Minus 4 points.
Jaroslav Zelený will earn a national team call-up in 2021/22
I felt really positive about this, but who could’ve predicted Jablonec would be so rubbish this season? Zelený himself hasn’t been awful but also hasn’t done anything to elevate Jablonec from the ashes, being at least partially implicated in 7 conceded goals and looking a confused duo with either Vojtěch Kubista or Jakub Martinec. It’s not like there wasn’t an opening in the national team (with Filip Kaša or Filip Panák earning call-ups and David Zima struggling for playing time in Italy), but zero back-up list nominations tell you everything you need to know about how close Zelený came to a call-up. Not close at all. Minus 3 points.
The “Moral victory of sorts, but ultimately a loss” category
Mladá Boleslav won’t sit above Hradec Králové at Christmas
Agonizing. From Round 7 through Round 18, the promoted side would never drop below Mladá Boleslav. At many points they were sitting side-by-side, 6th and 7th, and they are sitting like that after Round 19, too, only in the wrong order. The late Hložek decider and FKMB’s tight victory over Teplice meant a little heartbreak for yours truly, as I was about to bank an unlikely 5 points.
The “Too early to call, but feels very unlikely” category
Matej Mršić will receive 3+ votes as Foreigner of the Year
At one point, I was ready to bin this prediction already, but after a sluggish start Matej Mršić has caught a little bit of fire lately and a strong spring coupled with a potential Top 6 finish for Dynamo could nudge him among the top foreigners. That said, despite knocking off four points (2+2), playing a part in two more goal moves, and contributing with 11 chance-creating actions per my notes (4th on the team), Mršić has yet to win so much as a single Team of the Week shortlist nomination, so he’s a definite longshot.
Sparta will, at one point, develop a 9-point lead on Slavia
In theory, I can’t bin this yet, but in reality, I probably already could. My rationale was counting on a slow start of a tired team with non-existent vacation which sort of occurred but Slavia have still only dropped 9 points in the league (all but two dropped before Round 13), giving Sparta precious little to work with (dropped 7 points before Round 13, too). A covid-19 outbreak now probably gives me the best shot since not even a single postponed Slavia game did me any good earlier, and I can’t possibly wish for that.
Galásek fully takes over from Smetana at some point
You can’t rule out anything, but I’ve barely noticed Galásek in press or otherwise whereas Smetana is being praised more than anything these days. And you know what, I’m glad this one isn’t working out, as the prospect of a high-end Czech club growing with a young coach who’s growing himself fills me with excitement, because… well, I don’t need to tell you how unusual it is.
The “Could be a close call, impossible to guess now” category
Zlín will have a player land in the Top 10 of scoring charts
I’ll take this, as I have 5 imaginary points riding on this, and I’m not without a sniff! As of now, Ladislav Almási is rounding out the Top 10 with ten points (8+2), while Tomáš Poznar sits 15th just two points back off him. David Tkáč (5+0), Vakho Chanturashvili (0+5) or Robert Hrubý (3+1) could still take off, as could the whole Zlín offence hampered by the 4th worst finishing — as ever.
Pardubice will finish at least 15 points above the drop
This one has a catch, because I wasn’t clear in defining the “relegation zone”. If it meant counting the single automatic relegation place (which I’d argue “drop” means), I’m fairly positive Pardubice will manage to build up enough ground on the historically bad Karviná (already sitting on a 12-point cushion). However, if it meant counting the two play-out places, too, I’d be sweating like in hell since Pardubice only have a 1-point reserve at this very moment. And then there’s Sparta “B” who could yet absolve the 14th team of any additional work, so… yeah, impossible to decide, impossible to call now.
Pavel Šulc will score at least twice as often as he’ll assist
The youngster has been a bit of a let down, but his general lack of point production makes this as much a “meh” situation as it is a close one. Šulc currently boasts one goal and one assist, meaning even just one goal and no assists down the line makes this prediction a (desperate) victory. It shouldn’t be this close, however: Šulc has produced 23 shot attempts with a combined 3,2 xG (compared to 1,27 xA), making his finishing deficiency a clear pattern.
Slovácko will have to do with 3 penalties tops
There’s still a long road ahead, but even at this point, you can already sense a seismic shift in Slovácko’s penalty fortunes. The team has faced four of them and only got to take one, as late as on Matchday 16. What’s even worse: Václav Jurečka missed, thus ensuring Slovácko remains the only team in the league without a single penalty goal. Quite a turnaround from 14-for-14 last season, but then again, Slovácko had to wait for ten of those penalties till the spring rolled around, so maybe luck is coming their way very soon.
The “On track, but prone to a jinx” category
Florin Niță won’t finish the season as a starting goalkeeper
On October 26, Sparta’s Deník Sport beat writer Jan Vacek called Florin Niță “the best goalkeeper in the league”. Almost exactly a month later, on November 25, Niță was dropped in favour of Dominik Holec and hasn’t started since. After Holec finally kept his first clean sheet last time out, you’d imagine he’s set to open the spring as a starting goalkeeper, too, and now that there are rumours coming out of Romania that a disgruntled Niță demands playing time, it’s tempting to pronounce this an easy win. But there are no easy wins in a prediction game, especially with Niță signed through 2023.
The “Already safe in the bank” category
Liberec will set the new winless record in August
Finally a full-on “yay”! Liberec needed to wait for their first 2021/22 win till at least Round 6 to make the math work, but they hanged on till Round 8 to kindly make sure. And now they are very much out of the relegation battle, so I’d call this a very satisfying win-win situation! Plus 2 points.
So how does it look on balance? I gave myself a chance to bank 55 points.
Already sunk = 25 points
Already banked = 2 points
Still up in the air = 28 points
Not great.
