2021/22 Fortuna:Liga Power Rankings (2/3): The Still Premature Edition
Initially, I was going to do this every 6 rounds, covering one fifth of the season at a time. That’d be neat, but also quite hectic, and I didn’t want to squander a whole international break that falls right after a 1/3 of the season got wrapped up — like this one does. That’s also neat, is it not?
You know the drill by now. Or you can refresh your memory here. Let’s go…
16. MFK Karviná (▼3)
In 2020, Jozef Weber got fired from Mladá Boleslav following Round 10 after his team posted its second best attacking performance of the young season despite not scoring a goal (2,06 xGF). A year later, Jozef Weber got fired once more following Round 10 after his team posted its second best attacking performance of the young season despite not scoring a goal (2,18 xGF).
Funny how history repeats itself. Funny if you’re not Jozef Weber, of course.
Then again, it’s not like Karviná were turning a corner or anything, because they all the same posted one of their 3 truly ugly xGA performances (2,75) — balancing the improved offence out to a rather staggering effect.
On the whole, despite facing four underwhelming sides along with Slavia, there wasn’t a single team struggling as much as Karviná to deprive their opponents of quality chances over the last 5 rounds. Defending down the middle wasn’t any smaller an issue under Weber than it was under Jarábek, and that’s typically a sign of a malfunctioning system rather than “too many foreigners on the bench” or “waiting for Marco Túlio to settle in” (a midfielder notorious for his defensive deficiencies that had already torpedoed Weber’s MB), which seemed to be Weber’s baffling explanation for all this awfulness.
15. FK Teplice (▲1)
Radim Kučera — only barely survived by Weber who lasted a single round longer — had spent so much time trying to figure out the offence he abandoned it completely, and that effectively cost him the job.
Make no mistake, moving centre back Jan Knapík to central midfield and winger David Černý (formerly a miscast fullback) to centre forward absolutely moved Teplice closer to the optimum when it comes to game off the ball — with the team doing very well to tame attacking efforts of Ostrava and Olomouc, two legitimately strong outfits, and registering a 5th best rolling xGA over the last 5 rounds as a result — but this step forward at one end of the pitch was unfortunely bought out by two steps backward at the other end.
Fittingly, Kučera was in the end fired despite recording a point in back-to-back matches — something he had only achieved at two other stages of 2021. But rather than this representing a pinnacle of his calendar year, it was his downfall many people had been begging for and even more had seen coming.
At the top of Jiří Jarošík’s to-do list? Making attacking set pieces any sort of a threat. Teplice are in the league of their own when it comes to looking clueless over a dead ball, with their match against Olomouc standing out as the proverbial exception to the rule. Then, Teplice only seemed capable of generating danger off set pieces (Moulis and Fortelný combined for three dangerous deliveries in total), whereas otherwise… well, the Olomouc game total beats the sum of every other game in terms of shots following corner kicks and indirect free kicks. And that isn’t even the most mind-blowing stat.
Below, a number of games with 100+% of shots coming from open play:
Teplice: 4
Slovácko: 3
Č. Budějovice: 2
Anyone else: 1 or none
14. FC Slovan Liberec (▲1)
Under Luboš Kozel, Liberec are moving forward — take it from a much smarter tactical mind — but when you spend 75 top flight games led by Pavel Hoftych, it’s going to take a lot more time to get in the right spot. Right direction is all good, but a right spot is where you’re only safe... and Slovan are not there yet.
Against Ostrava, 3 of the 4 passes completed deep inside the attacking zone came from players who arrived 4+ rounds into the season (Stoch, Tupta, Plechatý), which is both a good sign and a depressing proof of how much work still needs to be done. Because the number 4 is, in and of itself, brutally low; and no anomaly either. This is simply a collective of poor creative passers led by a measly 6 deep passes by Christian Frýdek who himself missed the first threerounds. Liberec have a solid defensive foundation but I’d bet we are at least two months away from them showing any sort of swagger upfront.
13. SK Dynamo České Budějovice (-)
I’m far from sold on Dynamo, and I would even go as far as saying that “Hold your horses” should be the annual reminder tattooed on foreheads of just about every Fortuna:Liga follower. Going into October 2019, Č. Budějovice were dead last and many thought they were a poor, unprepared addition to the top flight. Then they surged and finished two points away from Top 6. Early this year, for a change, many went crazy over their lengthy run without a conceded goal, pronouncing Max Talovierov the next big thing — only for him to largely fall off the map soon after and Dynamo only winning two more 2020/21 games since mid-February. Thus, coach David Horejš began this season on a hot seat, and he very much remained on it through the first 8 rounds, only for Dynamo to rattle off back-to-back victories and… erm, now there’s talk of another Top 10 finish and what not…? Do we never learn?
Look, Č. Budějovice boast some very nice talents. A breakout star of Fortune Bassey, a currently underrated Jakub Hora, a forever underrated Mick Van Buren, a resurgent Ondřej Mihálik… and these players can go the distance for you. But at the end of the day, it all kind of feels too individual just like Bassey himself sometimes does; trying to do everything on his own. It’s because Dynamo have an imperfect set of attacking patterns to fall back on, while nothing has changed on their awful defending of their own penalty area.
As a result, Č. Budějovice’s underlying numbers still comfortably place them in the bottom 5, and I don’t see them crawling outside of it anytime soon.
Whatever you think of xG, Dynamo have only posted two positive 2021/22 performances so far, which isn’t what typically gets you to Top 10. That was against lowly Karviná and Plzeň (barely), also two sole teams they didn’t get outshot by. Pardubice looked much better than ČB on the day they lost 1:3. And so on and so forth. It just screams “unsustainable”, that’s all I’m saying.
And do remember: we’ve been here before.
12. FC Fastav Zlín (▼3)
It’s always important to mind the schedule, and it’s especially important in the case of Zlín right now, as their offence has completely vanished over the past few rounds, but that makes perfect sense considering their set of opponents. Plzeň, Sparta, Bohemians, Slovácko and Liberec rank 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th and 9th in non-penalty xG allowed since the season began which goes a long way in explaining why Zlín have the lowest average xGF over the last five rounds (0,63). That said, after a positive start on the attacking side of things, Zlín haven’t created more than 4 goalscoring chances a game since Round 5, and that’s got to show on their standings here regardless of strength of opposition.
11. SK Sigma Olomouc (▼5)
After I published the first edition of Power Rankings, a friendly analytical mind got into my DMs to ask me what’s led me to rank Olomouc so high. “I didn’t know what to do with such a strong offence and such a bad defence,” I babbled back unconvinced myself, adding that I expect their production to dry out in no time, leading to them to drop down a few in the next edition.
And so here we are.
Yet still, I’m surprised by how it’s dried out — not just in terms of raw end product (a volatile variable notoriously hard to sustain), but also in terms of chance creation (a much more concerning trend). Olomouc now haven’t been expected to score a single goal per xGF in three consecutive rounds, and one of those rounds was a trip to Teplice, so no excuses! Coach Václav Jílek now seems to complain after every performance, and a lack of creativity/effort appears to be the main departure point. It’s legitimately hard to grasp.
10. FK Pardubice (▲1)
Everyone has soured on them in the meantime, while I rank them higher? It must seem counter-intuitive, needlessly provocative even, but it’s important to remember these are performance-based Power Rankings, and not results-based ones (because then I could just copy the standings and be done with it).
So yes, I mean it: Pardubice have not performed too bad, which is why I was so over the moon that the board is openly not ready to pull the plug on the coaching tandem. There are still reasons for concern, absolutely — fouling deep down, defending corner kicks, 5 conceded goals via a glaring goal error (no team has had more, and no other team employs an individual with a pair of such errors) — but they don’t appear to be systematic. Rather they are entrenched in sub-par opening performances from Toml, Čihák or Kostka.
That’s (much) easier to fix than collective failures, though to be thoroughly clear, all three Pardubice attacking channels ranking 10–11th in the league is a definite underachievement nonetheless — given the talent at disposal.
9. FK Jablonec (▲3)
It might not be readily apparent, and it may already be too late for them to join in the race for Conference League, but Jablonec are slowly rediscovering their touch. And I mean specifically the finishing touch. Penetration itself has never been a huge issue for Jablonec; they are a Top 4 passing and crossing outfit while being a threat on the rush, too, thanks to Pilař+Pleštil combo. But their finishing still leaves a lot to be desired, as only four sides register a greater negative discrepancy between their pre-shot and post-shot xGF.
8. FC Hradec Králové (▲2)
The newcomers are for real. My set of 24 variables which I collectively call “underlying numbers” (considering offence, defence and general behavioural patterns on and off the ball) has them ranked 9th, only a touch below their actual and Power Rankings standing. The reason why I have them a little higher (and considered swapping them with Baník even) is the slight adjustment for schedule that was, in my eyes, required to compensate for doing away with three of the toughest trips (Slavia, Sparta, Slovácko) already.
Hradec lost on all of those. But they didn’t lose any other game. Telling.
7. Bohemians Praha 1905 (▲1)
Meet this year’s analytics darlings, the Czech Brighton if you will. Stuck in the middle of the table, Bohemians are still flying firmly under the radar, but they deserve a fair amount of credit for their start and two things in particular:
- Their chance creation is unbelievably consistent, even more so for a non-Top 3 team. Bohemians have so far bottomed out at 1,41 xGF versus the champions (their only lost xG battle too!); a floor no one else can currently beat. Sparta and Plzeň have both generated less threat than that on four occasions, with Slavia ruining their superior record by the derby.
- The talented Vojtěch Novák apparently isn’t getting more playing time because coach Luděk Klusáček isn’t happy with his defensive contribution, and you can see why that’d be an important aspect of one’s performance for him. Ranking 7th in recoveries in final third and 9th in passes allowed per defensive action last season, Bohemians have elevated their structure and pressing game to different heights this term (ranking 2nd and 3rd), thanks in large part to some excellent work rate from attacking players like Roman Květ and Petr Hronek — a direct competition to Novák himself.
6. FC Baník Ostrava (▲1)
Most Baník fans seem to err on the side of caution and expect their team to lose touch with Top 4 sooner rather than later, which is very much what their placement as part of these Power Rankings means, as well. Enjoy it while it lasts, because Baník continue to be a side with familiar flaws and unbalanced middle of the park. Most notably, Ostrava were not expected to score a single goal on 5 out of the latest 6 occasions, which is rather shocking considering they faced Teplice, Liberec, Boleslav and Olomouc in that same time frame (whereas a defensively solid Bohemians faced the sole onslaught, huh).
Things get much tougher now for Ostrava who host Slovácko, Sparta and Plzeň in their next three home stands which could prove to be a significant complication for a team whose drop in successful penalty area entries once travelling is the 2nd most pronounced in the league (where 15 becomes 9,7; with only Slovácko registering a more stark contrast — ha!). Granted, there have only been 10 games to work with, but don’t be surprised once/if Ostrava stop picking up points at home and continue to not inspire on the road.
5. FK Mladá Boleslav (▼2)
I know, I know. Karel Jarolím appeared to be a consensus candidate for a sack after Round 9, and the latest victory did a precious little to ease the vast pressure on him. But these Power Rankings won’t ever come close to being as reactionary as the general public, because it’s simply much more difficult to sink into the so-called “crisis” per underlying numbers than results. According to Wyscout’s expected points model, FKMB would now rank fifth with 17 points (instead of the actual 11), and my eye test largely concurs.
On reflection, going as high as 3rd in my initial Power Rankings edition was misguided, but them being worthy of Top 6 placement is a hill I’m willing to die on.
Below is a list of advanced non-xG (!) stats that see FKMB as a Top 6 team:
- deep completed passes for (2nd)
- deep completed crosses for (2nd)
- open play penalty area entry success rate (5th)
- deep completed crosses against (5th)
- passes per defensive action allowed (5th)
- balls recovered in final third (6th)
- percentage of fouls conceded in defensive third (2nd)
- smart passes attempted per game (6th)
- average shot distance (6th)
That is a solid enough foundation for me to still trust in this team.
4. 1. FC Slovácko (▲1)
That a 5th-place Slovácko appear to be the consensus pick of the two for this week-end’s showdown with a 4th-place Ostrava says a lot about the growth in the Moravian side’s status over the past few months. It’s like even the most skeptical spectators are warming up to them and buying into their hype now. (Which is why they’ll likely go downhill soon, since this sport is never fair.)
A key factor in this shift in perception? Martin Svědík’s ever-present ability to push them above and beyond. A 2019/20 Slovácko got decent results through fiercely effective counter-attacking and little else. A 2020/21 version got into more possession-based football but relied too heavily on delivery of all kinds — be it from set pieces or open play. And a 2021/22 Slovácko is adding a lot more combination element to the equation, drawing unprecedented value from build-up. While only 41,1% of their xG stemmed from positional attacks (lowest percentage in the league), now it’s 73% — 2nd highest — due to zero penalties (big change) and some much improved, tangible passing patterns.
Up until recently, Slovácko had never been a highlight-reel friendly club, but now their numerous attacks and goals actually are easy on the eye, too, thanks to their trademark deep, supporting runs from the star double pivot.
3. FC Viktoria Plzeň (▲1)
It’s well-documented that I don’t trust this Viktoria Plzeň side. One part of the reason is that their only two truly tough tests came at home, and so lost points may come in bunches soon enough. But even a bigger part of the reason is that… they are just too pedestrian for my liking. I complained last time out that they tend to just sit on their lead and preserve it nervously, which hasn’t changed, but rather got stressed even further through four more 1-goal wins.
Look, Plzeň are a clear-cut best third team in the league, I’ll give them/you that. They are rock solid on defensive set pieces, generate most xGF from positional attacks per game (1,21) and have an unrivalled success rate when entering the opponent’s penalty box. But they’ve also had games where they mostly poked around the box (Boleslav, Liberec, Pardubice), and it’s hard to look past those. Sparta and Slavia turn up to overwhelm; Plzeň not so much.
2. AC Sparta Praha (-)
Speaking of overwhelming others… Sparta have taken a definite step back offensively lately (in order to toughen up defensively, which has — in turn — been a definite success), which is mostly why they had no chance to leapfrog Slavia in this edition despite famously beating them after a long long while.
Through Round 6, Sparta had on average completed 20,3 passes or crosses in(to) the box, whereas in the last four rounds they average 7,75 deep completions. It’s partially down to the strength of opposition (Slavia and Plzeň), but partially not because Jablonec and Zlín are hardly bulletproof.
That said, Sparta deserve all the credit in the world for their derby triumph. While they were aided by the red card, allowing Slavia to crack their penalty area from open play a mere six times is something no one since Brno in April 2021 (4) has achieved. It was the proverbial come-of-age performance, especially/at least when it came to defending responsibly and as a unit.
1. SK Slavia Praha (-)
Indeed, the media spin on the derby was all wrong in my eyes, because it was a story of Sparta achieving rather than Slavia failing. And it definitely didn’t mark a crisis of any sort. I have to repeat myself: this was already Slavia’s 6th away day on the season, meaning they only have nine to go before the table splits. The only team in the same boat is Baník; Sparta or Plzeň still await 11.
Soon enough, Slavia will barely have to step outside Vršovice. In fact, if you count in a Zlín MOL Cup fixture and a pair of Conference League tests, there’s a great chance they’ll rattle off eight consecutive games in their own neighbourhood (one of them in Ďolíček just nextdoors vs Pardubice) from late October to late November. Sure, it’s going to be a tremendously packed schedule, but one would still think it’ll help — especially in terms of rehab.
Without looking ahead and cutting the champions some early-season slack, however, Slavia wouldn’t be a shoo-in at 1st place. Not at all. Their non-penalty xGF and xGA both rank 3rd, and their specific xGF related to set pieces and counter-attacks both rank outside the Top 5 even. It was kind of predictable for Slavia to look disjointed and less-than-drilled coming out of such a congested summer, but all the injuries and rotations have arguably left a more pronounced mark on their underlying numbers than many — including yours truly — would’ve imagined. This international break came in handy.
All data used and interpreted here are taken from Wyscout database.
