2022/23 team preview: AC Sparta Praha
For some time, 2021/22 felt like a step in the right direction. Opinions might have differed on how sufficient it was, but 7 points off the top after 30 rounds wasn’t necessarily what today’s Sparta could take for granted. Then it all unravelled, 12 points off the top was the outcome — just like last year — and so it’s time to start all over again at Letná.
Again.
The Priske era begins, then, and thank fuck his name doesn’t even come close to rhyming with Stramaccioni. For every positive thing to say about Priske at this point, there is a rebuttal. We remember him upsetting Slavia in the Champions League play-offs, of course, but it should be noted his most recent, year-long stint at Antwerp — his first coaching venture abroad — wasn’t too far from a fiasco. Falling out with the owner, fans’ critcism of uninspiring football, over-reliance on the main striker… all that resulted in the incoming sporting director Marc Overmars not feeling tempted to keep him on board.
Either way, Priske should be afforded a blank paper and his own story.
And I, for one, can’t wait to see him open the first chapter…
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
It may not count for anything in the end, but beating the arch rivals three times across one season (including the cup quarter-final) is something to behold in this era. Here’s a full list of teams to beat Trpišovský’s Slavia twice across one season: Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund (2019) and Feyenoord (2021-22). That’s it. Slavia featured prominently in the following section as the one club who’s got Sparta’s number; now the tide appears to be turning.
Sparta also hold the bragging rights as the most clinical counter-attacking outfit and the most clinical outfit fullstop, in fact — having outscored its collective xG² by the largest margin (more than 7 actual goals). Headlined by Dávid Hancko and Ladislav Krejčí II, Sparta were of course a juggernaut on attacking corner kicks — averaging two corners with a shot per game — and their Swiss knife of offensive tools would never be complete without mentioning Jakub Pešek and Lukáš Haraslín who’ve single-handedly turned Sparta into the most prolific team as far as gaining the box in possession of the ball goes. Priske is going to have a lot of fun with them, I reckon.
What went (especially) wrong
Speaking of offence: how awkward, then, was it to see Sparta ranked 11th league-wide per 5-game rolling xGF after 21 rounds? Sparta ended up not reaching one expected goal in four straight games back then, having only fallen short of the benchmark on two separate occasions in the first 18 stands. It was a peculiar drop-off — and very much the moment the writing started to appear on the wall for Pavel Vrba. Sparta’s attack soon recovered rather magnificently — rattling off five straight games with over two expected goals — but the veteran coach and his reputation seemed to be forever scarred.
To that end, away form was always a bit of an issue when it came to generating threat. In fact, no other team would experience as large a drop-off in cracking the attacking penalty area on the road. This is naturally offset by the fact this drop-off still occurred in pretty high numbers (going from 2nd to 6th league-wide), but roughly five less entries per away game must be felt. Sure enough, in 5 of their 9 away non-wins Sparta didn’t even reach double digits of penalty area entries, notably struggling at Jablonec and Ostrava.
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
Last summer, I wondered whether his hefty pricetag would be worth it; if Dávid Hancko could actually move the needle enough for Sparta to recoup the value. One fully healthy year later, we know for sure Hancko couldn’t single-handedly power Sparta to a long overdue league title, but he nonetheless made for the team’s best centre back and left back choice.
I was forced to divide his entire sample into two data sets, so we are dealing with a dangerously small sample here, but Hancko grades out as 7th, 5th, 7th and 1st in all four areas of one centre back’s game — an unbelievably complete, balanced profile in a vast field of 59 regularly starting CBs.
No wonder Feyenoord have come calling for his services, but as of today, there appears to be a sense of optimism that Sparta will manage to hold onto Hancko. The tabled bid is confirmed to be too low for Sparta to bite, and if it’s not at least in the Alexander Bah range, they shouldn’t even consider it, to be honest.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
With a fellow Scandinavian now in the driver’s seat, all eyes will be on Andreas Vindheim and Casper Højer to see whether they can nail down the starter’s spot on either flank. Fans have come to expect nothing from the former, so it’s more about intrigue and new-found potential for an unlikely rebound. With Højer, it’s more the old-fashioned pressure stemming from both the incoming Jaroslav Zelený and the left back’s own uninspiring efforts.
To be fair, it was a first year abroad for Højer made even harder by a 6-month stint on the sidelines. Some struggles here and there were to be expected. That being said, we barely got to see even his noted weapons — he was stuck behind Dočkal, Pešek or Karabec in the set piece taking pecking order, and while he’s said to have a cannon in his left foot, only one of his shots fired across 934 minutes (small sample, mind!) actually tested the goalkeeper.
I don’t mind his sole assist (he’s contributed to three more goals otherwise), but his crossing was underwhelming in that nearly 30% of his deliveries were blocked early, and there are (way too) early signs Højer could lack certain mobility to truly succeed in the Czech environment. This year will be crucial.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @spartanske, VencaJares, @martin2121h, @jehlida, @SlowboyTheBeard, @kridelnikv, @acsfratello and @interhofer for guiding me through the motions of Sparta’s pre-season
Priske’s Sparta already are and will be different to Vrba’s Sparta, all the while sticking to the familiar 4-2-3-1 (or 4-3-3) formation. David Rozlivek and Vojta have already done a terrific job on profiling the Danish coach before his new team took to the field, and much of their analysis is translating onto the pitch: the emphasis on pressure applied high and early is there, and so is the focus on careful building of attacks down the middle. Vojta much appreciates some patient ball circulation inside the attacking half — an element completing absent from Vrba’s game plan — while @acsfratello has noticed both fullbacks (especially Wiesner) are now encouraged to close down both attacking posts.
One fascinating part of watching a new manager coming in — especially when he’s foreign — is seeing the individual stocks rise and fall. In the case of Priske, however, the overwhelming factor wasn’t the coach’s differing preference but rather some annoying injuries. Tomáš Čvančara has a new rival uptop in Jan Kuchta and he wasn’t really allowed to put his foot in the door apart from the opening 45 minutes; Ladislav Krejčí II (back issues) has been made a new captain, but nobody will be sure for weeks where and how exactly does he fit in this refurbished side; Václav Drchal (broken collarbone), Vojtěch Patrák (foot) and Martin Suchomel (shoulder) would’ve had the outside track into the starting line-up, but it’s nonetheless sad to see them miss out on almost the whole pre-season; David Pavelka also can’t have put up a fight yet.
Squad turnover
As of now, Sparta are retaining the 3rd highest percentage of minutes played and, somewhat surprisingly, a decent chunk of 2021/22 goals — 50 to be precise, or a slightly above average 71,4% of all — despite losing Hložek, Bořek Dočkal and Matěj Pulkrab. It feels like it must’ve been more, doesn’t it?
On the other hand, this is still subject to change, and if Florin Niță and Filip Souček were to indeed leave, they alone drop Sparta from 3rd to 8th most minutes retained league-wide. Instead of over 80% it would be less than 75%. Throw in Hancko and you’re at 67,3%, losing a second member of the league’s Top 50. The Slovak defender himself is in an unfamiliar territory, by the way, rising from 142nd most used F:Liga player through 87th all the way to 30th.
Biggest upgrade
You’d do well to find a bigger Michal Sáček fan than me outside the Sparta camp — and if we are being completely honest, possibly inside it too — but even I’m willing to admit that Lukáš Sadílek is a significant upgrade on him.
Oh, right. You’d do well to find a bigger Lukáš Sadílek fan than me anywhere, too, fair enough. Either way, the early pre-season returns do line up: while Sáček was found to be slowing the play down a bit too much, lacking any sort of final third urgency, the older Sadílek has hit the ground running, spreading passes and sweeping up loose balls like he’s been on this team forever.
To be fair, these two are different players with different strengths. Sáček is a better middle third ball progressor, especially as far as carrying the ball upfield is concerned, whereas Sadílek is a better final third contributor. There’s nothing wrong on being just the former — like Sáček pretty much is — but Sadílek isn’t just the latter, and that’s where the “upgrade” part sets in.
Whenever you can add one extra deep completed cross per game (which is what Sadílek is doing compared to Sáček) and take the average xA value on the table and time it by four (going from Sáček’s 0,04 to Sadílek’s 0,16) while arguably boasting defensive awareness, you don’t think twice and just do it.
In Sadílek and Jan Fortelný, Sparta suddenly have two engaged central midfielders who look to do damage in half spaces… after they’d just spent the entire season very much not exploiting these crucial, vulnerable areas.
Biggest downgrade
It’s got to be Adam Hložek, of course, but once again I’m inclined to praise Sparta for targetting the right player — the right profile — to replace him:
As you can see, Kryštof Daněk finds himself exactly one tier below Hložek in all four categories, suggesting a player who’s on the way — and absolutely can think of climbing a tier higher across the board on a much better team straight away.
As of now, Daněk basically mirrors Hložek in three important aspects normalized per 90 mins: self-made chances (0,33 vs 0,34), dangerous set pieces won (0,47 vs 0,49) and meters gained via runs with the ball (52,02 vs 59,04). He seems to lack the vision or execution to be a true creative force, but that may come with time. Daněk has been around seemingly forever, but he’s half a year younger than Hložek, so there’s no shame in him beating his celebrated peer in just two metrics — especially as one of them is rather vital and perennially underrated when it comes to Daněk himself (deep crossing).
New kid on the block
Last summer, I profiled Adam Gabriel in this space — a consensus feel-good story of the pre-season — and now he’s gone permanently with 6 mins of top flight action under his belt. Let’s hope I’m not bringing the same fate to this year’s candidate, Matěj Ryneš (b. 2001), who was — and likely still is — the very reason why Tomáš Rosický has resisted buying a ready-made winger. As @acsfratello puts it diplomatically, “Pavel Vrba had different ideas”, but now it appears as though Ryneš could genuinely be a 4th winger on the depth chart.
His behaviour on the ball is a bit too instinctive at times, a bit too risky, and he’s a pretty poor finisher, but Ryneš nonetheless carries a skillset that’s easy to develop; silky dribbling, decent cross and the ability to see and pass into free space. Together with the goalscoring centre back Patrik Vydra (b. 2003), these two may be ready to eventually spend more time with the A-team than the reserves. The rest… not so much. Priske wasn’t in a position to test the previously untested; he primarily needed to get familiar with his key players.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. All depth charts are up to date as of July 14 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 14. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale, creating five tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
My consultants mostly weren’t picky. Three mentioned greater depth on the wings, but admitted it’s not likely; @spartanske would additionally welcome a centre back, but there doesn’t appear to be much appetite for it either— perhaps Ondřej Čelůstka needing a surgery after all could change that? Again, Rosický definitely didn’t sound like considering it at today’s press conference.
The consensus, meanwhile, seems to be that the club has gotten its most pressing needs out of the way nice and early, and so it’s now just casually monitoring the market for a starting goalkeeper (despite still having four capable ones on the books!) and a holding midfielder. I’d echo the latter need, adding a specific requirement for a “dynamic” holding midfielder who could both pair up with Krejčí II or provide something different in his place. The sense is that Priske values intensity above all else, meaning both Pavelka and Krejčí II could have a hard time keeping up at times, in certain games.
I mean, generally, Krejčí II shouldn’t be considered untouchable. Or did he look irreplaceable to you in 2021/22? He had a rough year by some measures:
In the absence of these two, Priske has rolled out an adventurous double pivot of Fortelný and Sadílek, and it has worked, but it’s just a couple of friendlies. At the same time, I don’t see a suitable candidate on the domestic market, so Sparta will have to spring a surprise — or live with me ranking their C(D)M crops as merely above average. I’m sure the club can easily do both…
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- While Krejčí II is getting a bit of a free pass from Sparta fans, Adam Karabec certainly is not — and it’s rather harsh to an extent. His pizza chart is inflated by the small sample size and I worry for his willigness to get dirty in the penalty box (which he doesn’t attack nearly as much as he could), but the stick he’s been getting largely isn’t warranted. That said, there won’t be any excuses going forward; he’s not “the other Adam” anymore (though I’d be surprised if all comparisons vanished immediately), there won’t be any Dočkal chewing up on his playing time (he is the new no. 10 in town) and the contract distraction has been duly taken care of, as well (even though 3 years signal tepid commitment).
- To that end, David reports that Karabec has been getting a special treatment of sorts from the coaching staff; personalized and more frequent feedback with the sole aim to make him better and more motivated. Until now, you’d often get the sense he was coming onto the pitch with not-too-concrete instructions, which should no longer be the case. How much he improves Karabec — and how he handles the Čvančara-Kuchta sitch — will come to very much define the success of Priske’s first year, I suspect.
- Speaking of the battle at the top of the line-up. Boy, how I’m looking forward to two of the three most valuable strikers squaring it up. The expectation is that they won’t usually line-up next to each other and it makes sense because as much as they don’t look similar — one is a tall guy, the other isn’t — their brand of football is similarly derived from their movement, both in terms of breadth and single-mindedness (in the box).
- Fortelný may surprise a few people, since there’s a feeling he’s the Priske type of a midfielder — high-octane running, forward-thinking on the ball, dynamic jumping in and out of the half-spaces, some special foul-drawing ability… Fortelný has already enjoyed a couple of positive training camps at Sparta only to be shoved aside eventually, but this must be it. Now he’s here to stay and play — and if he’d just managed to rack up the second most expected assists per game among CAMs (only behind Ševčík) on a poor Teplice side, think of what he could do in this environment! NT material?
- I have Vitík at the top of the RCB pecking order, counting on his chemistry with Hancko, but some of the people I’ve talked to were sceptical. There’s a chance two left-footed CBs — Hancko and Zelený — play next to each other, which would surely lead to the Czech football universe imploding.
Roster battle to follow
I’ve left two of my most controversial bits for the very end of my preview:
Tomáš Wiesner and Dominik Holec are not bad. Not even close to it, in fact.
I’m not sure they are necessarily part of the solution — in the sense of being instrumental to a successful title chase — but I’m sure of them not being the Achilles heels preventing Sparta from doing so they are often portrayed as.
Look, there’d be no point in denying Wiesner’s defensive deficiencies — to my eternal shame, I have yet to figure out how to sustainably gather data for a new “ignored a man behind him” metric— so feel free to call BULLSHIT on the “adequate” defensive responsibility, but I can assure you the rest is legit.
Wiesner is indeed a smart passer and a smart crosser (in that he doesn’t overdo it, ultimately putting almost all his crosses into the box), and shouldn’t be bashed for lower volume of delivery. He’s cracked the penalty area successfully from open play more often than furious crossers like Koscelník or Højer, after all, on top aiding the build-up by often accelerating with the ball.
That’s where his comparison with Jan Mejdr becomes one to follow, because his new rival almost never picked up the ball inside his own half, acting more as a receiver further up than a (tucked-in) quarterback in the mould of Wiesner. Mejdr is one well-built fullback, strong in duels, clever in running in behind and whipping sharp low crosses — he’s a lot of things Wiesner is not.
So that’s one pair Sparta should be pretty happy with. The other one being…
Don’t get me wrong: I can totally see how this tandem doesn’t look championship-worthy. What I cannot see, however, is how Holec has arrived at a point where he’s almost universally not trusted by his own fans. (I know it’s got everything to do with the beloved Florin, but come on — you can be both pissed at the club for ditching Niță and fair to Holec, surely.)
First of all, Holec’s high-danger save percentage is equal to that of Staněk. He’s actually prevented more goals than him, getting inexplicably dropped following a run of three league games (Zlín, Slavia, Jablonec) in which he conceded 3 goals from the expected total of 5,81. He just didn’t score, you see.
Second of all, Holec was successful with 91,7% of all actions performed far outside the goalkeeper’s comfort zone (far outside the box). The league average is 75,6%. Numbers can lie but not to this extent, trust me. And if your goalkeeper can be the proverbial third centre back, you’d better channel it.
Finally, Vorel is the more spectacular, athletic goalkeeper here, but I don’t know if he’s the more dependable one. Either way, this is a perfectly capable tandem that deserves to at least show what they can do in the fall. Let’em…
Season forecast
Based on my “expert” input that’s incorporated in Jakub’s statistical model, Sparta have so far added the most net value via transfers despite losing Hložek, but even that doesn’t tip them over the line — a 17% chance of finishing atop the regular season table seems low and they have 4% less of a chance of finishing as runners-up compared to Viktoria Plzeň. Not great.
And this is with Hancko in the fold, mind. Should he depart, Sparta will almost certainly fail to replace his high ceiling and thus fall back even further in the model’s eyes. Their chance of becoming the champions would all of a sudden drop to 4%, with one per cent reserved for middle group placement!
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/1. My bet on Niță falling out of favour proved successful.
The prediction: Jan Kuchta will only bag league goals against his old clubs
The rationale: I marked my Niță prediction down as a four-flamer, now I’m taking it one further. You may have forgotten about a couple of those stints, but Kuchta has suited up for five current Fortuna:Liga clubs (not counting his youth years spent at MFK Pardubice), so that covers a fair bit of ground. Two of them are bad (Teplice, Bohemians), which is extra useful for this exercise.
At the same time, though, this still leaves us with ten teams Kuchta can’t score against — and he’s been especially unable to not score against Zlín lately. To make matters worse, he’s yet to celebrate in a Prague “S” derby and has only combined for 3 goals in 1071 minutes against Teplice, Slovácko and Liberec.
God I hate this already. Should I have gone for a reverse instead? Could Slavia prevent what feels inevitable? I’ll be happy if this prediction lasts five rounds.
If you made it here and enjoyed the article, please do consider supporting our work by donating a small amount of money at BuyMeACoffee page. Cheers!
