2022/23 team preview: FC Baník Ostrava
Three notable anniversaries fall on 2022/23: Slavia Praha have been around for 130 years, Slovan Liberec celebrate their 30th season in the top flight (and 20 years since their first title) while Baník Ostrava bring out the big guns. 100. The plan A was to bring back intercontinental football for this special season; the plan B would be to… try again?
Signing Pavel Vrba to oversee the 100th birthday was a statement. He was the win-now choice for Sparta, and he is one for Baník Ostrava, too. Apart from Sparta, coincidentally, there’s no other FORTUNA:LIGA side hungrier for success.
The elusive Top 4 finish — not reached by Baník since 2009/10 — feels extremely close this particular summer, with the Top 3 deciding to collectively start sucking in difference-making talent from non-Baník clubs below them.
A domestic cup triumph would be nice, too — as many as 10 different sides have lifted the trophy above their heads since Baník last won it in 2004/05.
Or what about — in a first season without a Silesian derby on schedule since 2015/16 (whoops, bad omen?) — maybe just beat any reigning champions at home for the first time since 2009/10? That would be a fitting achievement, too. Or skinning both Sparta and Slavia in 2023 like you did back in 2018?
Good ol’ Bob Páník, eh?
Those are all navigable feats Baník Ostrava should be aiming for. And to be clear, on the marketing and PR front, they have done nothing wrong. Bazalbub has been entertaining fans as well as neutrals for months now, the Celtic testimonial was apparently well worth the splash and the subtly transformed anniversary logo is a tasteful touch. All good there.
Regarding sporting ambition… *gulp* … yeah, more on that later.
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
Honestly? Not much. They’ve rattled off their longest unbeaten run since 2010 (!) despite facing all of Sparta, Plzeň and Slavia, but those nine games in a row A) are nothing special in the grand scheme of things, B) consist of five draws. Their away form was Top 4 calibre, but their home form wasn’t. On average, they were pulling the trigger from 2nd closest positions to the opposing goal, but were they pulling it often enough? They’ve only outshot someone by 6+ attempts twice; getting outshot by the same amount 9 times!
There’s always a “but”. Their shooting efficiency was fantastic (adding more than 6 goals on top of what their pre-shot xGF suggests) and their shooting luck only lagged behind that of Sparta, so they’ve averaged 3rd most goals per game since 1993 (1,71), but they never looked like a true offensive juggernaut otherwise, did they? Because their non-penalty xGF was 9th.
What went (especially) wrong
They were responsible for only 45,8% of all shots occurring in their matchups, a 5th lowest share. (At home, their share of shots beats only three teams, in fact.) Per pre-shot xG — describing chance creation more than anything else — Baník would let their opponents go over two expected goals for eleven times. That’s a relative truckload, make no mistake. Slovácko, a presumed rival of Baník, had only allowed this to happen four times. Eleven isn’t less than the season totals of Zlín, Pardubice (11), Teplice (10!), Jablonec and Bohemians (6!) — ie. 5/6s of the relegation group. Majority of those 11 games were against the Big 3, but others came versus Zlín, Bohemians, Pardubice…
… funnily enough, the spring Karviná disaster (1:3) concluded the best five-game stretch of Baník’s defending per rolling xGA. Sometimes, numbers play these little games with us; but you can’t ever cheat them out of the equation.
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
I guess it doesn’t make sense to point at a centre back given what I’ve just told you about Baník’s season, but Jaroslav Svozil is a fully justified pick in my eyes. Once he stopped rolling on the ground theatrically —2020/21’s overarching theme — he swiftly returned to his top form that had previously brought him from Opava to the Silesian top dog, looking like a full package.
Appearing taller than he actually is, Svozil is the Alessandro Nesta of our hills and valleys, a smooth-moving game-reader with a very well-rounded game.
Wanna win a crucial header? He’s right up there with the best of the lot, but also why not just anticipate and clear the ball without so much as engaging in a duel? He does that, too, more often than most top flight centre halves.
Need a concentrated leader? Svozil’s 9 losses leading to a shot and two fouls in defensive third in exactly 25 full starts are a far cry from his deputy Jakub Pokorný’s sixteen such losses and four low fouls in only 15 starts.
Begging for help with the build-up? Here you have one of only two FORTUNA:LIGA centre backs who landed in the 90+ percentile for both progressive runs and final third half spaces fed (Michal Kadlec is the other one); one sporting a great 74,5% accuracy on progressive passes, too.
Depending on how he bounces back from the serious injury he suffered mid-April, Svozil — freshly 29 by that point, so still in a CB’s peak — should be kept on the national team’s radar. Certainly more so than the Hejda’s of the world.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
I’ve been a fan of Gigli Ndefe for as long as I have run the CzechFooty account, so it means a great deal when I say he had a pretty darn terrible year. Not just by his standards, mind, but very much all fullbacks considering.
Compared to his first (incomplete) season at Baník, his xG+xA contibution got cut in half (from 0,16 per game to 0,08), with him only delivering the ball to the penalty area successfully 1,37 times a game (compared to 1,87 times for Jiří Fleišman on the left), he pretty much stopped accelerating the build-up with the ball at his feet (going from an above average 0,64 accelerations per 90 to a well below average 0,44) and was even less active in defence, both in the deep end and while pushing high up to force turnovers.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @MBuki7, @KrenekHonza93, @Maassive1922, @JanWoska, @Boler76280423, @lichna90 and @smusil93 for guiding me through the motions of Baník’s pre-season
Squad turnover
As of now, Baník Ostrava are the only FORTUNA:LIGA club keeping all members of their most used XI. They’ve (almost) never lined-up alongside each other — it features all of Nemanja Kuzmanović, David Buchta, Ladislav Almási and Jiří Klíma — but that doesn’t bother anyone. Of course, should Almási depart in the end, it dramatically changes; instead of retaining a welcome 91,4% of all goals, the percentage drops to a slightly alarming 63,8%.
The thing is, they may technically be on board, but Svozil is out till October or so, Lischka won’t return before the end of August (torn hamstring) — plus his impressive back-up Karel Pojezný is suffering from the same kind of an injury — and now Almási is out, too, with an unspecified ankle injury that could keep him out for weeks. Throw in Laštůvka’s minor knee issue with other absences like Jiří Boula, Jan Juroška or Daniel Smékal, and you’re suddenly opening the season with only 54,8% of 2021/22 minutes available to you.
Biggest upgrade
Here’s the thing: I can’t see any. Eldar Šehić comes about as close to it as it gets — purely because he arrived to back up Fleišman instead of Mr. No One. At the same time, though, he’s now suddenly a left wing — purely so Mr. No One doesn’t have to play. It’s not an especially inspiring choice. Maybe the mysterious Finnish/Estonian winger, who’s DEFINITELY COMING ALRIGHT, will be it?
To be fair to Šehić, he’s driven, tenacious and willing to get into the box, so maybe he can do some damage just powering up and down the flank. But if you had told me a few months ago he’s poised to open the season as a starting left wing on a Top 4 candidate, I would’ve laughed you out of the building.
Biggest downgrade
Here’s the thing: I can’t see any. It’s clear that Baník are suddenly too thin on the wings, but that’s more a result of the botched winter transfer window than anything else. No one is missing Ekpai, Kontsevoy or Falta in Ostrava. Pound for pound, no one is complaing about Potočný (for good) or Reiter (on loan) leaving either. And apart from other deadwood (Granečný, Jánoš, Zajíc), no one else has left the club this summer. So, who am I supposed to talk about?
I guess starting Jiří Klíma out on the right wing — which is at least a considered option judging by the pre-season — would constitute a downgrade, since you’d be losing a very deadly weapon in these two combining as a centre forward and a slightly withdrawn satellite of a second striker…?
Almási is the reference point, an absolute magnet for balls put into the box. For someone finishing and playing as often as he does, it’s nigh unbelievable that he grades out as elite in both adding value to finish (power, placement of the shot routinely exceeding expectation based on position/type of the shot) and success rate of any action in the box (shot off target counts as unsuccessful). Only Kuchta and Sejk can match this, in a far smaller sample.
Almási is also one of the least intense, effective strikers when it comes to recovering the ball — be it viaduel engagement or smart positioning — which is where Klíma comes in to complement him. He’s not quite in the top tier, but he’s still a major upgrade on Almási in this respect, actually beating him in aerial duels success rate in/around the attacking box (21 headers won out 40).
New kid on the block
The pipeline is getting dry slowly but surely. Since becoming the majority owner of the club six years ago, Václav Brabec has invested a lot in youth, making it one of his main priorities, and it’s indeed paying dividends…
… just not necessarily for Baník itself.
The amount of teen talent flocking away from Bazaly lately is staggering. There are some who’ve gone to Prague under pressure from their family members — Daniel Šmiga to Slavia, Ondřej Kukučka to Sparta — and then there are some who’ve chosen the foreign path early — Samuel Grygar and Daniel Macej picked Italy, Alex Honajzer Germany. Except for Honajzer (b. 2006), these are all members of the cherished Class of 2004. Coupled with the recent cancer diagnosis to Matěj Šín, it’s looking like a lost one already.
I asked my consultants what could be the reason behind it. Do they take it more as a compliment or a sign of something rotten deep down? Most note there’s a lack of a natural bridge between youth sides and the A-team. Some hear there are plenty of unfulfilled promises communicated (possibly by oft-criticized CEO Michal Bělák) towards these youngsters who then don’t get the shots on a team focused on winning now. Some suggest it might have something to do with those actually promoted then stagnating —be it Šašinka or Granečný in the first wave, or Kaloč and David Buchta more recently.
Either way, it’s a precarious situation and we may have already witnessed an attempt at addressing the internal issue when the Jaroň brothers and Daniel Smékal — one surprisingly fast big guy, actually the fastest per off-season tests — started to chew on previously unavailable top flight minutes towards the end of 2021/22. These three are therefore off limits for this exercise, and so I’m choosing to highlight homegrown goalkeeper Martin Hrubý (b. 2004).
Some of it is owed to the general shakiness surrounding Jiří Letáček, but I still wouldn’t imagine this many fans seriously preferring an 18-year-old to step in for the injured Laštůvka. Yet here we are, with Hrubý not conceding even once across 4 halves of pre-season football, showcasing a wide passing range for a goalkeeper and overall looking unfazed by the opportunity in front of him.
He’s a huge lad, an U-18 international, and plausibly a future youngest goalkeeper to start for Baník in the Czech top flight (per recorded history).
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. This particular depth chart is up to date as of July 24 and subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 24. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
In my mind, there are two ways how this season under Pavel Vrba can go for Filip Kaloč. Either the incoming coach will give him a platform to do what Ladislav Krejčí II did under his watch — run forward, lurk around the box, bang in a few goals — or he’ll gradually phase him out of the starting XI.
For now, the U-21 captain is set to open the season next to Daniel Tetour which makes me heave a sigh, because both of these would ideally provide box-to-box presence… and neither of them will be allowed to do so with adequate frequency in a double pivot. It’s a bit of a lose-lose situation for me.
That’s why plenty of people including yours truly have wished for a true holding midfielder to back up either Kaloč or Tetour (or both). You could argue Laco Takács has addressed exactly that need, but unless he starts moving less like a diplodocus and more like a professional footballer, he won’t be a solution. Jiří Boula was initially hyped to be it, but I’m not convinced by both his current ability and his ultimate ceiling. Baník need star quality here.
The obvious issue with Kaloč stationed at no. 6 is that you’re inevitably forcing him to flash his non-existent passing range and proneness to fouling. At the same time, you’re not getting any source of threat from him. He suddenly looks like nothing more than a depth player; a frustrating miscast.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Maybe it’s but a flash in the pan, but Muhamed Tijani (b. 2000) looks ready to stick around and make Almási sweat for his starter’s role. A year spent at Táborsko has done wonders to him, and while it initially looked like he’s back in Ostrava just to see his contract out (due in 2023), it may not be as simple. His game is still raw in some respects — “his first touch is (sometimes) like a bounce against the wall”, reports @MBuki7 — but his determination, fitness, finishing, runs in behind… all vastly improved.
- We are most likely in for a ride in the first round, with Jakub Pokorný bound to shift to LCB and partner with the returning Michal Frydrych. The former is the most phlegmatic person around, while the other one — a loud leader from the back — can sometimes panic and crumble under pressure; something that’s (sort of) underlined by his strong own goal resumé. Pokorný had looked to be on the way out but Vrba values his distribution, and for a good reason:
- On the subject of centre backs, it’s also going to be fascinating to follow the returns of Karel Pojezný and Lischka. The latter was unwanted by Vrba at Sparta and his mood seems to have deteriorated with time at Baník. Pojezný has, meanwhile, gained on confidence over at Pardubice and was routinely rated among the very best pre-season performers by fans.
- Jan Fulnek (b. 2001) looks like he has a future with Baník’s “A”, but he’s still expected to be loaned out to a second-tier club sometime down the road. He was an early stand-out, however, proving he can play on both sides of the back four and showing some bite. I don’t usually go by InStat, but seeing similarities with Sparta’s Martin Suchomel seems on point.
- Another new face at left back, former top prospect Jan Kubala (b. 2000), makes for the other extreme in that he showed up and immediately looked like he doesn’t have a future with Baník’s “A”. You can see why Udinese took him on back in 2017 — he’s got sweet technique, agility — but now it’s 2022, and he’s mostly walking around like a prima donna. Poor body language was already a problem on loan at Vyšehrad, but Baník didn’t care. No wonder Šehić has looked like a revelation in his place.
- Petr Jaroň (b. 2001) is very much a starter by default at the moment, but it’s nonetheless a well-deserved opportunity for him, as he’s made strides since getting introduced to senior football. It looks like he may be an equal parts finisher and final pass contributor, despite an apparent drawback:
- Laštůvka’s lack of difference-making in the goal (you know, the old “he doesn’t save anything extra”) has gone unnoticed to a peculiar degree. He’s an absolute legend who’d remained a fine custodian way past his expiry date, but this season — the anniversary — should be a fitting adieu.
Roster battle to follow
One of my earlier personal Football Manager challenges was to try and make the formation with three attacking midfielders and no wingers somehow work. I’ve very much failed, but now I’d like to see Vrba try in real life.
For starters, Kuzmanović just plain refuses to go. Last summer, he was readily written off only to put in one of his better individual seasons. Now it was thought that perhaps Lukáš Budínský channels his inner Bořek Dočkal and jumps ahead of Kuzmanović, but neither that has happened. The majestic Serb has enjoyed another positive pre-season at 33, but watch out for his aging curves — per my estimate, he’s now entering Y-1 of steep decline.
Should that worry indeed materialize in the near future, it might represent a chance for David Buchta to recover his mo-jo from years ago. He had enjoyed his best months as a second striker, scoring his way from the 3rd-tier reserves to the A-team in 2019/20, and generally does all his good stuff centrally.
While Petr Jaroň could be a fine straight-running winger, sticking to the by-line more often, you need to get Buchta into the box (or at the top of it) as much as possible. He’s a prompt, resolute finisher capable of creating chances for himself. You don’t want to see him wasting that skill in wide areas, do you?
Season forecast
Welcome to our 4th cup participant! (Assuming no one else wins the domestic cup, which would make this exercise dull.) It took some time and suspense, but here we are. No fanfare for a 27% chance? Yeah, I can see how…
As you can likely imagine, I wasn’t too high on Baník’s summer when handing out the “expert” grades to be fed into Jakub’s well-oiled model. In fact, the injuries to Svozil and Lischka along with the underwhelming arrivals of Šehić and Letáček (barely improving on anything at all) and a missed opportunity with Janošek (who’d be great for Vrba) have led me to mark Baník down.
Luckily for them, their rivals have lost (way) more value and Ladislav Almási is still around. In an alternative universe where he does get scooped up after all, Baník drop by over three points all the way to 8th place, with just a 42% chance for the championship group placement and a mere 14% for Europe.
Wow, harsh.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/1. Galásek for Smetana wasn’t too bold in hindsight.
The prediction: Baník will clinch their 300th Czech league win on the road
The rationale: For starters: yes, I’m like the damned FORTUNA:LIGA, pretending record books only started to be kept in 1993 following the Czechoslovakia split. It’s just more relatable for the folk of my age or younger. I’m aware Baník have actually won 856 top flight games in their 100-year history, but are you sure you want to complain about having one more excuse to get hammered sometime this season owing to yet another anniversary?
Knock yourself out, then.
For those who don’t pass up on any — however irrelevant — reason to celebrate: the question is when will that happen! Baník are currently two wins away from 300, while Vrba is three games away from 300 top flight games. If these two perfectly line-up, it’d be fucking neat — so feel free to mark 13 August and the Zlín visit in your calendar. But I’m calling this too neat, soz.
In fact, Baník fans won’t have the pleasure of celebrating at home, all comfortable. Instead, they’ll either (good scenario) watch their team open a season with back-to-back victories — something that, amazingly, hasn’t happened since 2007 — or they’ll have to wait (bad scenario) for Round 5, having witnessed their boys struggle in Vítkovice against Zlín and Teplice.
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