2022/23 team preview: FC Slovan Liberec
Only four July days were enough for Liberec to go from having an underwhelming summer transfer window to enjoying one of the best ones in my eyes. Slovan fell out of the Top 6 for the first time since 2016/17, but it suddenly feels feasible for them to swiftly bounce back.
You wouldn’t know from the incomplete mainstream media coverage, but Slovan Liberec are going through a tumultous period behind the scenes.
The tremendously unpopular Libor Kleibl is leaving the role of club director in August, getting replaced by Pavel Marek, formerly of Nikon and FK Jablonec.
Tasty.
This quiet change — quiet in a literal sense, because the club’s directorate just never speaks up publicly, let alone presents anything like a “vision”— might soon gain on importance as the active owner Ludvík Karl has turned 76 this year and could be edging closer to selling. His company Preciosa is feeling the heat of the ongoing energy crisis as the foremost crystal glass manufacturer in the country, with gas prices rising uncontrollably due to Russia being Russia.
To make matters worse on the financial front, Slovan’s loathed big brother Slavia have started luring away partners (AAA Sport) to go with key players. In steps the very loyal Tipsport who can only focus on Slovan and eight other FORTUNA:LIGA clubs or something like that. It’s hardly a full compensation.
On the footballing front, A-team’s so-so season was no biggie compared to the thoroughly embarrassing relegation of the club’s reserves from the 3rd tier.
Quite naturally, B-team now has a new coaching staff, entirely sourced from the neighbouring — and still 3rd-tier — FK Přepeře who made Jablonec sweat in MOL Cup’s third round last season. Former Přepeře star Vojtěch Hadaščok has come over to serve as a playing “B” assistant coach back where he became a champion (2012) along with Theo Gebre Selassie and Michael Rabušic.
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
Liberec picked up only their second win in Jablonec nad Nisou in nine years and finally beat Slavia for the first time in the league since 2017. Back then, Slovan ended their (then) record 36-game unbeaten run and helped Plzeň to the throne eventually; this time, they did it despite spending 70 minutes in 10 men and never even hitting the target once. You may not care too much about beating Slavia in particular, but trust me, Slovan fans live for it. It’s extra sweet.
What went (especially) wrong
Still, negatives far outweigh positives. To go on a three-game goalless drought at three separate points of 2022 alone is simply… three too many. Pavel Hoftych had accumulated a mere two — both last year — in over two seasons in charge. Goals were generally a problem, with Liberec owning the second lowest share in the league (38,2%) behind only the uncatchable Karviná (32,5%).
Where they’ve actually outworked Karviná: being responsible for just 29,5% of all xG generated from positional attacks led down the middle. That effectively signals a highly inefficient build up, something that also shows on Liberec completing 3rd least passes in/to here.
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
My model registers only four Liberec players who were above average at their own position, of fifteen who qualified with their game samples, and two are gone (Martin Koscelník, Ľubomír Tupta). That leaves us with one analytics darling whom I’ll save for later, and Christian Frýdek who’s quietly coming into his own away from the Sparta spotlight enjoyed by his dad and brother.
Frýdek was especially valuable to Slovan for his profile of an incisive passer. As we briefly demonstrated above, that sort of a skill isn’t commonly associated with Liberec, yet the 23-year-old still made for one of the more accurate smart passers (attempting 30 such passes, beating Yusuf by 13!). He led the team with 22 chance-creating actions (to 15); fourteen of them being primary. He was also the only capable corner kick taker on a side that was clueless with this sort of a thing, grading out as a very good crosser from open play, too. Decent for someone who basically skipped the whole 2020/21.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Having signed a fresh two-year contract this February, the 30-year-old captain is beginning to fight the uncompromising aging curves. Jan Mikula still patrolled the better channel of the two, but it was nothing to write home about; his left-hand side was once again a Top 5 one defensively, but also a bottom 2 offensively. More disturbingly, Mikula actually took a slight — but only really slight — step forward in some major attacking metrics (like penalty area entries or combined xG+xA), yet declined in some major defensive ones.
Of particular concern must be Mikula’s decreased dependability, as he’s gone from a mere 0,29 losses leading to shot in 2020/21 to a poor 0,57. His success rate in loose ball duels was down by over 8% (lowest since 2016/17); and by 3% in defensive duels. He chipped in with much less blocked shots, as well.
That said, with Kozel now more inclined to use some kind of a 3-at-the-back formation and boasting a capable left wingback in Dominik Preisler, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel for the veteran entering his 10th top flight season. I fancied him much better as a LCB where his numbers shot up, too.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @Briggus9, @domaUNisy, @klappe19 and @SleglJan for guiding me through the motions of Liberec’s pre-season
Squad turnover
On 20 July 2021, I wrote: “Say we are generous and keep Jan Matoušek on board (whose prolonged loan deal still hasn’t gotten sorted as we speak)”. Here we go again, on 24 July 2022. He’s like this annoying neighbour who always sneaks into your Sunday barbecue but you stop short of chasing him away just because he once lent you a ladder for you to recover a ball stuck on the roof. Matoušek is once again around, not good enough to stay, but… yeah, around.
Anyway, assuming Matoušek continues where he’s somehow spent the entire summer, Liberec are not in the worst condition for a third year running. Yay!
Each summer, there was a more miserable side. In 2020, it was Karviná. Last year, it was Mladá Boleslav. This year, as of now, it’s Pardubice. But only narrowly so; if you take away one Matoušek, Liberec retain the least minutes. With Matoušek gone, Liberec would lose exactly half of their 14 busiest bees.
Still, I’d argue there are harder jobs than replacing — and indeed upgrading on — the likes of Milan Knobloch (3rd), Filip Havelka (7th) or Matěj Chaluš (9th). Martin Koscelník (4th) and Christ Tiéhi (5th) are something else.
Biggest upgrade
Mick van Buren should provide Liberec with a much-needed extra layer of creativity on that right wing where guys without any (Matoušek) or wide target men (Rondić) typically operated in 2021/22. But I’ve profiled him as part of the Dynamo Č. Budějovice preview already, so let’s focus on my favourite warrior who’s going to add something new to the midfield instead.
Lukáš Červ is coming over on permanent transfer (!) to provide an infectious dose of natural ambition, leadership and bite. He’s also a skilled player, so the grit doesn’t just come with your typical headless running and sliding into people. Červ can really hit it from mid-range, is an experienced penalty taker and always wants the ball. That’s an important attribute and it’s going to be interesting to see how the former Pardubice loanee fits into the side. He doesn’t have Havelka’s passing range, arguably, but is way more imposing.
I find Červ to be more of an attacking midfielder than a defensive one (he was usually portrayed as coming through at Slavia) at this point, and you can notice on his CAM pizza chart he’s top notch in two metrics usually pointing at a very engaged midfielder — self-sufficiency in chance creation (through interceptions, dribbles, one-twos) and penchant for forcing a high turnover.
Biggest downgrade
There are three suitable options. I’m saving Tupta for later and there’s a chance that Denis Višinský or Ahmad Ghali flourish in the open slot, so I’d be wary of using the “downgrade” card on him. Martin Koscelník, I imagine, would be the most common candidate because he’s not getting replaced per se — with Gebre Selassie or the injury-prone Michal Fukala likely stepping into his shoes — but my theory is that Liberec will actually benefit from his departure. He was frequently a centre of the attention with his volume crossing and duel engagement (ie. exhausting foul drawing), which was kind of forcing Liberec into being a very crossing-heavy side, too. Indeed, I believe — somewhat counter-intuitively — Kozel should channel this well-deserved transfer of a fine player to make his team even more dangerous as a result.
The third option would, of course, be Christ Tiéhi. The new Slavia reinforcement isn’t flattered very much by advanced stats — and I had one data analyst astutely point out to me his aversion to vertical passes (preferring diagonals rather too heavily) — but he’s worked hard for his reputation of a Liberec saviour. I hadn’t realized it until @domaUNisy brought it up, but with Tiéhi starting in autumn 2021, Liberec only lost to Sparta and Plzeň (both away) while actually outshooting the latter. In the eight other games, Liberec went 6-2-0, promptly saving the season before Christmas after earning a sole point in the first six. It’s hard to underestimate Tiéhi’s influence here.
Maybe a motivated Kamso Mara, who had an open conflict with Hoftych and generally didn’t seem to care for much of his last season at Liberec, offsets some of the negative effect of Tiéhi’s departure in the few months before his contract runs out in December. But I can’t see him replacing Tiéhi’s mobile defence, press-resistance on the ball and the occasional run with the ball (he’s actually a frequent and highly successful dribbler, channeling his strength).
New kid on the block
Speaking of replacing Tiéhi, here’s a hipster’s tip: Ivan Varfolomeyev (b. 2004) has impressed every single one of my consultants in pre-season. Kozel mentioned he wants to go slow on the Ukrainian who looks like he needs to bulk up a fair, but the early returns are fabulous; he’s daring on the ball, precise with his progressive passing, and at times very aggressive off the ball. @SleglJan can already see traces of Liberec’s own Ladislav Krejčí II. For someone with two minutes of experience from Premier Liha, he certainly hasn’t performed in line with expectations based on his age and career stage.
Born in Crimea and brought up in Lviv area — two of the main targets of Russian aggression spanning several years — Varfolomeyev will be an incredibly easy player to cheer for in coming months at a club that’s famous for giving numerous opportunities to Ukrainians — and benefitting from them.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. All depth charts are up to date as of July 14 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 14. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Right. So… Liberec didn’t respect our deadline at all, adding three key players after it, and therefore transforming the depth chart above in a staggering manner. With Van Buren, the right-hand side is at least league average now; with Preisler at left back and Talovierov at centre back, I’d at least hear you out if you were to argue for upgrading the respective positions, as well.
That’s all good, but there’s still one lingering need: a proven goalscorer.
Since returning to Slovan in 2020, Rabušic has notched seven non-penalty strikes (to go with eight penalty ones). Imad Rondić is on nine non-penalty goals, but in a game sample reaching far beyond 3 000 minutes. That’s not going to cut it, especially since both landed in the bottom 20 percentile for inside-the-box xG, Rabušic put all three of his high-danger shots off target, and Rondić amazingly succeeded with only 14 of his 50 actions in the box.
No wonder Slovan are indeed rumoured to be looking for a striker, and there’s still a chance they’ll return to Pedro Felipe, 25-year-old Brazilian tested by the club earlier in the pre-season, who flashed great 1v1 ability, technique and niftiness in patches before getting injured and waving premature goodbye.
Here’s a catch, though: any potential arrival will inevitably claw more playing time off Matyáš Kozák’s portion, and he’s a Sparta loanee most Slovan fans are eager to watch in action — a hard-nosed, willing shooter who was a goal-per-game player in U-19s and followed up with an impressive debut 2nd-tier campaign; 12 goals in just 985 minutes of playing time are a fantastic return.
Kozák has featured on the wing, too, but Van Buren likely makes that a no-go.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- There’s a worry Slavia once again inserted a “primary position” condition in Maksym Talovierov’s contract in order to force yet another square peg into a round hole. I feel reasonably confident to tell you right now Talovierov won’t be the next Tomáš Souček — lacking the necessary intelligence and concentration for filling such a crucial role — but Slavia are likely not giving up after a poor spring. They have previously demanded for Ondřej Karafiát to be a constructive holding midfielder, too, and it backfired badly (on Liberec), so look for more of the same here.
- Followers of Slovak Fortuna liga quickly came to tame my initial excitement, but Ahmad Ghali looks more and more like the real deal. His accelerations and dribbles have purpose and he doesn’t seem to suffer from tunnel vision, frequently connecting with a teammate and executing well mid-stride. He has a bit of a Sor-esque habit of sometimes taking too big a bite of the apple, but there are goals and assists in this lad, I’m sure.
- Ghali has also been helped by a friendship with Mohamed Doumbia who’s (very slowly) edging towards a starting role and could, eventually, replace Tiéhi with a fabulous first touch and some quality ball spreading to both channels. He had always looked like a Dukla player with the highest ceiling to me and it would truly be fitting if Kozel — coach forever associated with the Juliska side — helps him to finally hit it at Liberec.
- There could be two breakout stars in defence this season. Filip Prebsl (b. 2003) was prevented by a lingering injury to make an impact in the spring, but he’s bound to make a splash at some point this season, oozing refreshing confidence on the ball and building on solid experience of playing on both sides of the CB duo as a rightie. A high risk-high reward kind of a centre half who could pair up well with this stud in the making:
- Curiously, Kristian Michal (b. 2000) — a career CDM — has so far looked rather ‘meh’ in central midfield but intriguing as a right wingback. Similarly, Karol Mészáros gave Kozel some food for thought as a functioning left wingback before getting injured again.
- I’m not saying not triggering the option to buy in Tupta’s loan contract was necessarily a mistake (I have no idea how pricey it was), but I mean…
Roster battle to follow
I love a good battle of generations, and I hope we’ll finally get one with Michal Fukala and Theo Gebre Selassie. Fukala is possibly the only high-end Czech defensive-minded prospect at fullback, but his constant struggles to stay fit are starting to bother everyone involved. To quote coach Kozel, “(Fukala) returned from the U-21 meeting in March with a torn abdomen and couldn’t feature the rest of the spring. Now he’d played in two pre-season friendlies, but since he was out of it for a while, he would strain the other side of his abdomen.”
You can hear the frustration in Kozel’s voice.
At 22, it’s now time for a next step, and let’s hope Fukala will be afforded the health and space to take it. We are still waiting for him to add an attacking layer to his game, but if he’s unable to string more than two starts together…
Season forecast
Warning: this infographic is based on simulations done before Liberec added all of Van Buren, Talovierov and Preisler to the fold. Back then, it seemed like Slovan were poised to stagnate, with a pretty low 16% chance of cracking the championship group. Once Jakub ran another set of simulations accounting for the positive transfer activity, however, much has shifted in Slovan’s favour:
Is the second scenario too optimistic, for a change? It means Liberec narrowly jumps ahead of Jablonec, Boleslav and Olomouc who are all projected to also reach the 40-point mark, but not quite catch up to a strengthened Slovan.
I think I’d take Liberec finishing somewhere in between. Sorry for the cop-out.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/1. Liberec did set a new record winless streak in August
The prediction: Vliegen will outperform Knobloch’s personal best streak
The rationale: I went down the cautious route and coloured the goalkeeping deck pale red for “below average”, but the truth is, Slovan fans are almost unanimously high on Olivier Vliegen. The Belgian custodian, notably fluent in Czech, has burst onto the scene as this confident communicator who instantly makes the backline more organized, supporting it by fine reflexes and all that. We shouldn’t forget Knobloch was my MVP halfway through the season, but he was ultimately dropped due to some poor distribution from the back, with Kozel specifically referring to him not instilling confidence in the side.
Vliegen should be a fundamentally different kind of a goalkeeper, and I’m willing to predict he’ll straight away improve on Knobloch’s career best streak without conceding. You’d have to go back to May 2021 for his 253 mins of fame — equivalent of 2,81 starts — with Vliegen topping out at 118 mins.
Three full games in a row are not a lot to ask for, surely, and the early stretch of Teplice, Pardubice and Č. Budějovice (rounds 2-4) or the late autumn set of games against Zlín, Jablonec, Brno and Hradec Králové (rounds 12-15) are literally begging for it. This could be a prediction I’m most (cock)sure about.
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