2022/23 team preview: FK Jablonec
In 2020/21, they posted the second highest winning percentage ever (61,8%); within the next year, they found a way to drop all the way to a historic rock bottom (17,1%). A year on from putting together an 11-game unbeaten run (second longest in club’s history) they went 11 games without winning, equalling club’s record. They hadn’t dropped this low in the standings since 1999/00 when Brno were still Boby-sport and Drnovice finished 3rd. Jablonec had a season for the ages, leaving everyone wondering why the hell. Short answer: bad luck. Long answer…
Miroslav Pelta knew exactly why he was handing out cautious one-year contracts to Petr Rada. The coach was virtually unfireable at the time, but he wasn’t quite Pelta’s man. The boss wanted to go sophisticated and data-heavy; Rada was never going to budge. Still, however much it was just a question of when and not if, the how — the fall off the cliff — caught everyone off guard.
If Rada walked into the room today — a mere three months after his departure — there’s a chance he would feel like Alice in Wonderland. The David Horejš revolution has been about as neck-breaking as it’s been awkward — the coaching staff has only narrowly overseen more pre-season goals scored (3) than broken drones (2) — but I’m sure no one imagined a painless process.
What’s important is that the change isn’t occurring on the A-team level only.
The 3rd-tier reserves are now managed by former U-16 and U-19 coaches, Džimis Bekakis and René Feri, while Jaroslav Vodička (a bit of a Rada-esque coach) got relegated to U-19s, with the aim being to establish a clear bridge between “A” and “B” — something that was reportedly blocked by Rada and his people. Both teams should now employ the same formation and exchange players on a more frequent basis, hopefully leading to more breakout stars.
Oh, and the grass, of course they are dealing with grass! But I’m told the more substantial renovation — including a new bedrock, boiler room and heating system — is only planned for 2023. Don’t stop sharpening your keyboards yet!
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
Penetration wasn’t a problem at all; Jablonec averaged the 3rd most deep completed crosses and 6th most deep completed passes. Finishing wasn’t the root cause either; per post-shot xG that only takes shots on target into account, Jablonec were a good value for 41 goals scored (they actually scored 27). Goalkeeping was fine, as well; Jan Hanuš et co. collectively prevented the second most goals on the season (5,68). Holding onto a lead wasn’t a trouble; they never dropped a game once they went ahead (it’s only that it happened 14 times, and four of those times inside the relegation group without Rada).
What went (especially) wrong
The problem was everything in between, you see.
Penetration wasn’t a problem, sure, but only as long as you ignore the fact Jablonec needed to produce two attacks per one touch in the opponent’s penalty box (3rd worst rate). Finishing wasn’t the root cause indeed, but if the other goalkeeper somehow pulls off an absolute blinder six times a season (saving at least one whole goal above expectation), it’s kind of a bummer — especially as you face mediocre-to-bad goalkeeping on only 45,7% of matchdays all told. Goalkeeping was fine, sure, but only as long as you zero in on shot stopping and ignore Hanuš’s erratic behaviour when coming off the line (like against Slavia). Holding onto a lead wasn’t a trouble, yeah, but how about crawling back from a hole? Do we just ignore the fact Jablonec failed to register a single comeback victory despite having a fuckload of opportunities to do so (21 to be precise)?
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
A lowkey career year for Tomáš Malínský? I reckon it wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude so, despite the collective struggles making it seem highly unlikely.
There was no winger, after all, cracking the attacking penalty area from open play on a more regular basis than the former Slavia loanee (nearly three times per game!) and only 3-4 more prolific chance creators in Ewerton, Vlkanova, Petržela and Pešek. That is a very good company — an exclusively Top 6 one.
Malínský is now freshly under contract at Jablonec and about to turn 31 in August. He’s also just got his meniscus treated by doctors and only joined up with his teammates in Italy (without taking the field once), watching his rivals stake their claim. That all makes him an equally good candidate for the following section. Could his starting role be suddenly up in the air? I’d say he was more effective on the left where he turns inside and stretches the field every so often, too (0,5 xG+xA per game compared to 0,33 on the right), but I could think of one familiar face blocking his path there all of a sudden…
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Who wouldn’t remember the little devil who was driving Petr Rada crazy on the sidelines? David Horejš, too, admits he needs to raise his voice every now and then, but he’ll undoubtedly lean on Vladimir Jovović just as heavily.
The prodigal left winger was leaving FORTUNA:LIGA a star, a free agent, at the ripe age of 26 — in order to return to his hometown of Nikšić and help Sutjeska back on the throne with 11 points (4+7) after a three-year hiatus, passing all his bonuses to the club’s youth academy in the process.
What a hero. What a guy.
Now he’s back, still in his prime at 27, and ready to expand on his legacy.
You may not remember his exploits like it was yesterday, but Jovović ranked in the league’s top 4 when it came to progressive runs completed, accelerations with the ball, accurate smart passes, dangerous set pieces won, successful penalty area entries from open play or successful offensive duels in final third. He outshone Pilař then, and was basically a better version of 2021/22 Malínský. That is some legacy to expand on, just to be absolutely clear.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @OFanouska and @KocourMichal for guiding me through the motions of Jablonec’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Last year was already a welcome departure from the usual furious squad rebuilding over the summer and this year represents a continuation of the new trend (?). The question is: having endured one of the worst seasons ever, is it actually a good thing for Jablonec squad to remain intact? Who knows.
Either way, as things stand, Jablonec are losing only a second and a third member of their most used starting XI in the last two years (Schranz in 2021, Zelený and Pilař in 2022), on the whole retaining 4th most minutes. That said, Zelený was the 5th busiest player in the league (and hasn’t really been replaced), while the club could yet lose Miloš Kratochvíl to either Ferencváros or Plzeň, which would rob them of another member of the league’s Top 50.
Biggest upgrade
The Teplice stint was an initial promise, the pre-season only furthered it despite the general lack of goalscoring touch, and so Jablonec fans are excited to find out what they’ve got in Sparta up-and-comer Václav Sejk.
He’s belatedly replacing Martin Doležal and Tomáš Čvančara and arrives to reinforce an already stacked centre forward deck — stacked to the point that Václav Kadlec is now almost exclusively thought of as a second striker, ie. alternative to Pavel Šulc. Three other senior strikers + Torfiq are still around.
Some Jablonec fans are, in fact, so excited they openly worry for Sparta to recall Sejk in winter. That might be premature, but if his small 2021/22 sample (!) is to be trusted, here you have a technically adept, clinical, bulldog-y prototype of a striker we don’t often see over here. I wouldn’t bet against Sejk bagging 12+ goals this season should he really be the striker no. 1.
If Jan Silný indeed makes way for Sejk as the starting striker, it’s going to be fascinating to watch how much of a clutch performer Sejk will (not) continue to be. Silný was very much cursed; only 8 goals were scored under his watch in just under 11 starts, and he personally participated on a mere one. All the while, he did little wrong with his own finishing, easily deserving three extra strikes per my luck index. Sejk was a different story — Teplice also didn’t reach a goal-per-game rate with him on the pitch, but he alone contributed to 5/9.
The intriguing part of the comparison table above is Sejk’s non-existent target man qualities. He barely ever passes the ball inside the final third (and when he does, it’s often inaccurate) and doesn’t win any headers, making for a single-minded counter-attacking weapon. Could he be Horejš’s Bassey?
Biggest downgrade
Especially towards the end of the season, he wasn’t as dependable as you’d want your top centre half to be — but that was likely a result of the inhumane load he’d had to carry the entire year.
Jaroslav Zelený was asked to do too much at once — pass and carry the ball from the back which neither Kubista nor Martinec can do at a consistently high level; chip in with the occasional cross into the box which neither Kubista nor Martinec could do; sweep up the second balls which Kubista doesn’t have dynamism and Martinec game-reading ability to do; and to top it all off, block shots most frequently, too.
It’s therefore worrying Jablonec have failed to sign an experienced do-it-all CB to replicate what Zelený had done for them in the past. David Heidenreich may grow into one eventually, and it’s reported he’s already got a leader’s voice, but 937 senior minutes across the past two seasons are troubling.
It’s also worth stressing what @KocourMichal notes: Horejš wants his team to build attacks carefully from the back — on the goalkeeper-centre back-fullback axis — placing way more emphasis on CB’s ball-playing abilities and concentration/anticipation than Rada who was happy with Hanuš just mindlessly hoofing the ball to Doležal/Čvančara/Silný and praying.
I’m not sure the current CB crop can do what Horejš will require from them.
New kid on the block
It’s already been 18 months since Jablonec seemingly won the Tomáš Smejkal (b. 1998) sweepstakes, only to provide him with a grand total of 479 minutes to show what he can do (split into 27 appearances, moreover!).
This summer, Jablonec are back at it—once more reaching to Jihlava for one of the more skilled second-tier footballers in Adam Ritter (b. 2002). He is, for a change, coming over as a free agent who mostly suited up for the Vysočina reserves in 2021/22 and hence with little weight on his shoulders (Smejkal cost €200k — as much as Malínský), but it’s still an intriguing project going forward. In a limited pre-season space, the U-20 international flashed his playmaking skills as a tucked-in left winger (and the sole left-footed attacking midfielder in the side), producing a few neat through passes and dribbles.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. All depth charts are up to date as of July 14 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 14. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
In bringing Matěj Polidar on board, Jablonec finally fixed one long-standing need for a younger Jan Krob back-up (without needing to shift Michal Surzyn to the other side and weaken the right side in the process). They still don’t have a younger version of Tomáš Hübschman for a midfield backstop, though — a need about as long-standing and bothering @OFanouska, too.
For now, it actually appears as though Jakub Považanec could be preferred to Hübschman at no. 6, which — as we’ve learnt in the past — is a recipe for disaster. Považanec is an excellent passer, but too much of a free spirit for this role. Born in early 1991, he’s also on the wrong side of thirty already.
As far as rumours go, Jablonec are mostly/solely focused on adding to CB depth (per Pelta’s own inconcrete admission) — something that’s absolutely needed, too, given that David Štěpánek (of distinct second-tier quality) is currently a 4th choice there and Vojtěch Kubista a not-too-unlikely starter.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- As far as attacking roles are concerned, each and every one of them is at least comfortably tripled which makes devising the depth chart a very tricky exercise. Feel free to move Kadlec and Smejkal closer to the starting XI and Šulc potentially ahead of Kratochvíl. The Plzeň loanee had endured a rough spring, even deleting his Instagram profile at one point (such was the social media backlash following his wasteful Sparta performance), but returning back to Horejš should, in theory, revitalize him. He’s the only attacking midfielder-cum-second striker in the side and has already found success under the coach in his brief 2020 stint (five points in 723 mins).
- If there’s indeed a high-profile move waiting for Miloš Kratochvíl, I’m going to be one very happy Tomáš. Some fans would — and did — argue he’s been a part of the problem rather than a solution in recent past, but one shouldn’t forget he hit the woodwork an insane 3 times last term and once again acted as a fine midfield facilitator. The trouble with him is two-fold: he immediately grows nervous and ultimately inefficient once he enters the penalty box, and his oft-hasty execution leads to him being a bottom five ball progressor when looking at meters gained per ball losses.
- He was only healthy for 51% of the available playing time at LB, but Jan Krob still makes for a legitimate cheat code when it comes to deep crossing, thus contributing heavily — along with Pilař, Malínský, Surzyn — to Jablonec controlling the 3rd biggest portion of xG happening down the channel (61,3%). Only Prague “S” clubs had a more dominant left side per xG share. With Polidar more keen to take the ball all the way to the goal-line and serve more as a marauding runner down the line, Jablonec have different options for different opponents/game states, which is nice.
Roster battle to follow
I have Dominik Pleštil ahead of Michal Černák in the pecking order above, but it’s impossible to call that particular race for a starting slot at the moment.
Pleštil already has one elite season under his belt, but it seems to have happened longer ago than it actually did (2020/21) due to his peculiar proneness to falling ill. Last season was a complete wash from him, whereas Černák overcame his own serious injury to finally blossom in, like, 3 different roles. As a highly engaged, dynamic, annoying presence — creating eight chances via a dribble in just over 10 starts — he could already be the favourite.
What separates the two is differing appetite for shooting. While Pleštil barely ever feels like it and hasn’t really worked on becoming a more ruthless attacker of the box — averaging a mere 1,12 shots per F:Liga game over his entire career and actually declining to 0,88 last term — Černák reached a total of 10 shots from inside the box in 2021/22 (averaging 1,66 shots per game).
Season forecast
Our model fully believes in Jablonec’s return to the top: some more labouring inside the relegation group is only given an 11% chance, while the club landed back inside the Top 6 in just under half of all simulations ran by Jakub. There’s a fairly substantial chance (around 15%) that Jablonec reach the regular season 50-point mark, which would mean roughly doubling their 2021/22 total (26). At the same time, another 13th-place finish is just not happening; the model gives Jablonec about a 12-point cushion on Dynamo.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/1. Zelený did find his way to national team after all.
The prediction: Jablonec will have picked up the least draws after 30 rounds
The rationale: Jablonec were, of course, the drawing kings of 2021/22. Their current coach David Horejš actually robbed them of a new club’s record of five straight ties, but Jablonec didn’t let the disappointment get to them and swiftly proceeded to rattle off a 12th, 13th and finally 14th draw in a row.
This coming season, there won’t be any such boring settlements. Horejš has already led a first-tier and second-tier Dynamo to back-to-back mantles of the league’s most drawing-averse team (a combined 7 ties in 2018-20), so why not repeat the feat in his first top flight season outside of České Budějovice?
For what it’s worth, I can see some early commitment to the cause: I mean, it’s one thing to post a winless pre-season, but to avoid at least drawing 2nd-tier Varnsdorf and 3rd-tier Viktoria Žižkov? I salute you, David Horejš, my man.
This one’s in the bag already.
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