2022/23 team preview: FK Pardubice
Top flight action will return to Pardubice, nothing else matters. Don’t talk to a Pardubice fan about the ugly 2021/22 — they won’t care. A re-constructed Letní stadion, opened more than 90 years ago by Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk himself, should be ready for FORTUNA:LIGA restart in early 2023, hosting first-tier footballers for the first time since 1969.
This doesn’t go without saying. Ústí nad Labem got promoted after over 50 years in 2010, renting a nearby Teplice stadium. They finally opened their own top-level stadium in 2014, three years after their immediate relegation.
Now they are in the 3rd tier.
At about the same time, 1. SC Znojmo wrapped up their own stadium re-construction for no great purpose at all — they didn’t live to see top flight action in their own backyard either, spending one year in a Brno asylum.
Now they are in the 3rd tier.
You get the gist. Pardubice holding on for at least three years is absolutely huge. That the construction works are going by the schedule is huge, too. Sure, the ground will be a bit hollow to begin with — no offices, no rehabilitation facilities in the immediate area — but that will all come. For now, it’s vitally important the stands have been erected and the floodlights shine, with a brand new layer of grass set to be laid down in the next weeks.
All other off-season changes seem minor by comparison, but expanding a coaching staff led by the same Jiří Krejčí since 2013 by a fitness coach and a second assistant coach looks like a pretty big deal. There’s also a new kit manufacturer on board, with the outgoing Lotto so curiously disinterested in the job that their own logo didn’t even feature on previous jersey designs.
The incoming Joma, meanwhile, should already be working on a more outside-the-box design, with Pardubice set to introduce a new-arena version of the kit halfway through 2022/23. It’s going to be one special season.
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
Just like Slovácko in 2019, Pardubice danced through the relegation group, earning a record 13 points — or in other words 54% of their regular season total. That’s more than a half of points picked up in 5 games as opposed to 30.
Pretty phenomenal, thoroughly unexpected given that a 2:3 loss to a hapless Karviná made for Pardubice’s final act before the table split, and — most importantly — bloody deserved. Spare for the one lucky triumph over Bohemians, Pardubice dominated the relegation group, conceding a sum of 2,15 expected goals against in the 4 other games — a total that would, incredibly, beat 11 of their individual xGA scores in 2021/22. Similarly, their post season average of 15 shots for was almost five whole attempts higher than their regular season one. Like someone magically flipped a switch.
What went (especially) wrong
Together with Jablonec, Pardubice were the only side to not perform a single turnaround once falling back, something that happened to them in 2/3s of regular games (and then never in the post season). They only took four points from matches that didn’t always go their way, accumulating a staggering 17:32 scoreline while trailing. It was just too easy to run up the score against this fragile bunch, with Martin Toml, Emil Tischler or Marek Boháč taking a brutal step back after impressing individually to varying degrees in 2020/21.
It’s also never a good sign to be releasing two recent regulars halfway through your sophomore season, much like not converting on 3 penalties in a row.
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
His season wasn’t full of highlights, naturally, but Jan Jeřábek was as valuable to this side in his age-37 season as ever. He would miss six games all season, with Pardubice leaking 3+ goals in four of them. Perhaps more tellingly, a combined xG scoreline for those 6 games would be 2,97 : 11,9. To be fair, this sample includes Pardubice facing a Top 6 side five times, but never going over one expected goal for and getting outshot 40:77 is just petrifying.
That’s where my hot take comes in: I do honestly believe Jeřábek — the veteran holding midfielder — adds more net value offensively rather than defensively. He’s a picky but effective ball carrier and grades out as above average in all passing metrics. That’s invaluable on someone who, all the same, clears the most balls from centre of the box and is an interception robot.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Not nearly enough words have been typed about what a rough season Emil Tischler has just had. I’m not saying my models are perfect or anything of the sort, but I’ve run Tischler through two of them — for attacking midfielders and wingers — and he looks the worst in one considering 18 attributes (CAM) and second worst only in the other one considering 17 attributes (W). That’s rare.
First of all, a total of 4 successful penalty area entries from open play and a sum of 0,18 expected assists is acceptable for an occasional B-team fix, certainly not for a 1928-minute mainstay. I genuinely mistook it for a Wyscout bug. Second of all, Tischler’s last and only accurate cross of the season occurred on September 11, in only his seventh appearance. Since then, he’s put in 15 inaccurate ones and we are not done counting yet. Finally, once looking like an adept progressive runner, he offered next to nothing — unable to gain meters in possession and even less able to win a duel in the final third.
I’m not sure what happened to him, and I’m just as much not sure if Slovácko actually made poor business in letting him go (presumably) cheaply. Tischler was an active liability on the ball and an inactive on-looker off it, completely falling out of the starting XI towards the end — and for decent returns. It would be no wonder if he’s permanently benched over the course of 2022/23.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @karl__karlsson, @4C0KLIDA, @misterx_889, @Preeema and @tobiiikkk for guiding me through the motions of Pardubice’s pre-season
Squad turnover
One factor that was always going to play a large role in Pardubice’s sophomore season: continued heavy reliance on relative inexperience. If things don’t go well, you may not be shaking or feeling particularly nervous if you’re 27 or 30, but if 44,9% of the allocated playing time goes to U-23s…
Granted, Pardubice were even heavier on U-23 talent in their impressive 2020/21 campaign (47,5%), but even then, whenever things went south in a game, shit got properly ugly. The one missing ingredience back then was the underrated snowballing effect which only took the centre stage in 2021/22.
Having lived through two very different experiences, could the ever-youthful Pardubice side find a suitable middle ground now? It’s unlikely given that a total of 174 full starts have disappeared from their roster in the form of Cadu (2nd busiest), Filip Čihák (5th), Tomáš Čelůstka (6th) and Lukáš Červ (11th).
What’s positive is that the club is slowly but surely becoming self-sufficient. They’ve lost by far the most loanees over the course of the season (10), again, but this summer has already seen them sign Michal Hlavatý and Dominik Janošek — two 24-year-olds with a re-sell potential — to four-year and three-year contracts, an increasingly rare luxury for a Czech club of such stature.
Biggest upgrade
Anytime you have a chance to re-sign the hero of your promotion campaign, you do it. Michal Hlavatý — a substantial, 18-point reason why Pardubice topped the second tier in 2020 — is back and ready to spread joy once more.
Here are all attacking midfielders from the field of 48 who landed in 80+ percentile for both expected assists and high-danger shots, ie. carried a precious double threat: Roman Květ and Michal Hlavatý. The latter is a bit of a marvel in that he’s a very good progressive passer without utilizing both flanks all that often; he’s a master of a cutting-edge, vertical pass through the middle, often inviting a striker’s lay-off or a similar kind of combination play.
Hlavatý has, of course, already experienced a top flight season at Pardubice, and while his 3 points represented quite a dip following the promotion campaign, he was a vital contributor in 2020/21, too. Only Matějovský completed more progressive passes per 90 then, with Hlavatý edging towards the league’s elite in all of through passes, deep completions and accelerations.
Biggest downgrade
I don’t have enough data on Tomáš Vlček to know if he can be an adequate replacement, but there are two things I know for sure at this moment: Jiří Krejčí wants his defence to keep a high line at all cost; Martin Toml is awfully slow. Filip Čihák was making this masochistic combination work on at least some level, with his positional sense and ability to wrestle anybody off the ball absolutely vital. The amount of added value upfront — through long-distance carries and a frankly ridiculous prowess on attacking set pieces, leading to roughly fourteen high-danger finishes from inside the box — is a nice bonus.
Note the particularly long bars on the pizza chart (bar xG+xA); they all point at a CB who manages to get into the right spots to do the right things. And now compare those individual values to those of Toml (in brackets):
- possession-adjusted interceptions: 86,2 pct (12,1)
- aerial duels won (%) in own penalty box: 91,4 pct (1,7)
- blocked shots: 84,5 pct (5,2)
- success rate in defensive duels (%): 84,5 pct (87,9 — fine)
Spare for ground duels in general (loose ball ones as well), it’s a sad picture. There’s zero doubt in my mind, and those numbers, who was saving whose ass.
New kid on the block
For a while, it looked like Pardubice U-19 would actually, seriously challenge Sparta and Slavia for the title. Then in early April, all of a sudden, centre back Matyáš Hanč (b. 2004) and right winger Dominik Mareš (b. 2003) got promoted to the senior level to follow their former U-19 coach Pavel Němeček brought up to coach the reserves — spending the rest of the season bouncing between “A” and “B” — and the juniors more or less crumbled. A 3rd-place finish ahead of Ostrava, Plzeň and Olomouc is still wonderful, though, and with fellow centre back Tomáš Hrnčíř (b. 2003) also looking set to be a fully-fledged adult from now on, there’s hope for sourcing the depth from within.
Hanč is a lean, reasonably mobile centre back, whereas an even taller Hrnčíř isn’t slow but makes for more of a static tackler and header of the ball with some impressive core strength for a 19-year-old. I prefer a more mature Hrnčíř who doesn’t seem to rely on his stronger left foot as heavily as Hanč, but they could both together push Toml to the very brink as the designated starter.
Dominik Mareš, son of former international Pavel, is the most exciting prospect of all, of course, having featured extensively on the right side of the midfield in pre-season. He was clearly too good for U-19s — creating 18 chances in just under 13 starts, finishing off an extra dozen himself — and actually has a rather tall frame, too, for a fast dribbler on the wing. Should Pardubice ever go down that route, he could be a formidable counter-attacking weapon, able to come up with a surprise 1v1 or creative solution.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. This particular depth chart is up to date as of July 24 and subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 24. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Pardubice are in the process of addressing the obvious need for an experienced (R)CB, with Jiří Bederka plausibly unable to find a foreign landing spot and thus considering a return home. He’d replace Čihák’s value in front of the opposing goal, but hardly anywhere else. It would be a bit of a desperate move, and a particular downgrade in terms of ball-playing ability.
One bit I’m completely missing from the rumour mill: hunt for a poacher to lead the line. Pavel Černý has been a butt of a joke for as long as we can all remember with his beer belly, but that’s not even the problem: he still holds onto just about every ball, spreads it to the side, and… that’s largely it. Both him and David Huf don’t go over 30 percentile in terms of generating inside-the-box-xG and creating chances for themselves, two strong indicators of one’s willingness/ability to attack the box with the necessary ferocity.
It was therefore peculiar to see Pardubice testing half a dozen guys without ever reaching for a striker. Ondřej Chvěja came over on trial, but has always featured as a second striker — and is arguably best suited to act as one, too. But with Pardubice decidedly not utilizing the role of second striker, and with the sheer lack of goalscoring ability on the wings, I can’t see either Chvěja or Černý boasting the skillset that’s going to be particularly useful in this setup.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- First off, injuries: both Jeřábek and Dominik Kostka have missed large chunks of the pre-season, but it’s not too bad in either case. The captain has done his meniscus, but could be back before kids go back to school. Kostka is recovering from an ankle injury and may only miss 1-2 rounds.
- Pardubice haven’t done too many moves but it’s almost like I was their scout (I’m not). Matěj Helešic is my noted favourite from 2020/21 and should easily replace Tomáš Čelůstka’s top notch crossing ability. He’s been tried out further up the pitch but looked better in the left back role. And Janošek… well, I know you’ve heard enough from, so give it up for Mr. Pizza Chart:
- Now, onto the big unknowns: Bernardo Rosa (b. 2000) arrived from West Ham, advertized as a central midfielder or winger and played exclusively on both sides of the back four. So, basically like Cadu a few years ago, David notes, who was — granted — moved down gradually rather than immediately. Who’s generated even more excitement, that’d be Leandro Lima (b. 2001), who put in a two-point performance in the dress rehearsal and flashed the skill and agility usually associated with Brazilians.
- There are two wild cards on the wing: Vojtěch Sychra (b. 2001) who sometimes looks like the wind might be his biggest enemy, but definitely works hard and if he finds a way to be more poised in some situations, he’s got the technique to break out. Expect him mostly on the left wing cutting inside onto his stronger right foot. Adam Lupač (b. 2000), meanwhile, may have found his comfort on the right towards the end of the season when it was finally becoming clear he can be a top flight baller. Until then, he just ran and ran… but Bohemians and Karviná games were his big(ish) shows that led the club to trigger the option to buy in his loan contract after all.
- Once Jakub Markovič realizes he does not — especially at his height — need to go after each and every cross to the box, he’ll be 100% appreciated.
Roster battle to follow
If it’s Jeřábek/Janošek and Hlavatý as pretty much nailed-on starters, then there’s just one CM slot left for either Kamil Vacek and Tomáš Solil — two side-by-side starters this past spring. And I think it’s going to be for the better if only one of them always makes it in, since my model isn’t a fan of either.
It’s been especially harsh on Solil, I find, seeing him as this offensive duel beast who’s barely mediocre in everything else he does, but it’s easy to forget the former U-19 Euro participant is still only 22 years old. It’s OK for him to land in the 19,1 percentile; but is it OK for Vacek to land below him? The veteran still pushes the play forward at a fine rate, but he almost never closes down the attacking box which severely hampers the team’s secondary scoring.
Season forecast
When we ran this set of simulations, the squad simply looked like a torso. Janošek wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath with Pardubice at that point and both Brazilians were unsigned. Now all this isn’t true, but I’m not sure how more confident I feel about the team. Lima could be a second coming of Ewerton, but it could also be that the only thing he actually shares with the new Slavia signing are not football qualities but the agent. Rosa could replicate what Cadu had done for the club, but he could also be a flop.
I don’t know, and neither do you. It’s wise to tread the waters carefully here.
Pardubice are not the first nor the last club waiting for top clubs to start spitting out depth players to complete the puzzle — or come close to it. That’s inevitably going to set them back in mid-July when we did this exercise. Yet, Teplice are still more than three times as likely to go down as Pardubice, so there’s that. Relegation play-off, though, seems to be the likely outcome.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0,5/1. Pardubice did technically finish 15+ points above the (direct) drop, but it wasn’t quite what I was going for, so compromise it is!
The prediction: Pardubice will score an own goal in their actual home opener
The rationale: Not that I wish it upon them — far from it — but I find it funny there’s an actual precedent for this sort of a thing. I can’t possibly keep that to myself.
In 2005, top-level football finally arrived to the 17th biggest Czech city of Jihlava. The rules were not as stringent back then, so Vysočina actually kicked-off at their own little stadium, only undertaking a major tune-up later that year, followed by floodlights in early 2006 and a new stand in July.
They also conceded a game-winning own goal in their home opener. Bummer.
If you squint a little bit, you could throw in another example — the aforementioned Ústí nad Labem suffered from the same fate on their long overdue return to the top flight, but as we’ve established, it was in Teplice. Then again, it’s around 20km, so kind of a different story to Pardubice-Praha.
I’m sorry, Pardubice, feel free to consider this karma for beating your kind temporary hosts in their own ground on all three occasions in 2021/22!
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