2022/23 team preview: SK Sigma Olomouc
Since the beginning of the 1990s, Olomouc have constituted the best quartet in the country a whopping eleven times — as often as Plzeň, slightly more often than Liberec (10) and far more often than Ostrava (5). I’m not sure most casual spectators fully realize this. Historically speaking, the Haná club are about as big a non-Prague powerhouse as they come; which must also be why the club isn’t a happy place to be at the moment…
It wasn’t great before either, but this year feels like a tip of the iceberg. No wonder the overwhelming reaction to Roman Hubník’s shockingly open interview — where he describes the Sigma dressing room as “stuffy” due to the choleric, tyrannic figure of Ladislav Minář, club’s sporting director — from fans was “yeah, we are aware” or “yup, figures” or “I know right, fuck him”…
It increasingly feels like Minář lives and breathes for this sort of a thing.
He was once a first-team coach and a sporting director, remember. He’s, per his own admission, given up on a more analytical approach due to one Dominik Radić. In charge since 2014, he’s most likely the main reason why Sigma never sold David Houska or Šimon Falta at their peak, and why they are only now thinking of selling Václav Jemelka. Minář is the proverbial dog in the manger; despite only ever appearing angry, he’s the reason why any potential investor — even a minority one — gets blocked right at the doorstep.
How to proceed then? Having finished 9th, 11th, 9th and 9th again in the past four years, there’s a palpable sense of apathy across the proud and active fanbase. All that despite a projected Top 6 upside this roster quietly carries.
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
Right out of the gate, their corner kicks looked outright undefendable. Inside the first eight rounds, they scored a total six goals following a set piece — reaching almost a half of their season total (13). Back then, everything in general seemed rosy attacking-wise, with Sigma recording at least three goals in five straight games. Slavia topped out at three games in a row, Sparta were only good for back-to-back 3-goal efforts and Plzeň couldn’t even do that.
What went (especially) wrong
Of course, the xG gods — but also my own notes — were screaming UNSUSTAINABLE the whole time. Against Zlín and Mladá Boleslav, most notably, Sigma converted on a stunning 7/8 true goalscoring chances (and half of their shots of any kind), scoring 17 times from a combined 11,8 expected goals over the entire five-game stretch. What duly followed was a run of three goals scored (from 5,92 expected ones) in as many as 8 games.
Back then, Olomouc found themselves just one match removed from their club record of goalless matches in a row (5). They fired 34 shots for nothing.
As the old adage goes: the longer you fool the xG gods, the harder you fall.
Overall, there was a precious little to take solace from. Sigma have never figured out how to defend wide areas, with both their channels ranking in the bottom three per average xGA allowed from positional attacks, and they’ve allowed the most crosses to be completed in/to this area in the entire league.
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
When the name of Lukáš Hejda started to be thrown around ahead of the crucial March WCQ play-offs, I felt obliged to chip in: how about Vít Beneš? And I was dead serious, too. Beneš had been out of the picture for most of the autumn, but when he was finally healthy enough to rattle off 7 straight starts to restart the season, Sigma suddenly blossomed into a great defensive side.
Beneš is exactly the sort of a centre back I had on my mind when I formulated Slavia’s need for a veteran, dependable voice at the back. He probably couldn’t handle the workload anymore at 33, but he’s got the desired profile.
Just look at all the 80+ percentiles and consider the vitality of those metrics. And if that’s not enough of a complex impact, take it down a notch to 70+…
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
I’m opting for a first (and last) chip sitting squarely on a pair of shoulders. Mojmír Chytil and Antonín Růsek together have what it takes to easily make for a Top 5 deadliest tandem in the league, if not Top 3, and the pressure on them has gotten exponentially higher with the flurry of secondary scoring leaving the club this summer (Hála, Daněk, González). Two more 10-point campaigns are not the goal but a minimum requirement this time around.
For what it’s worth, there are only a few FORTUNA:LIGA things that baffle me more than the apparent lack of interest in Mojmír Chytil. The 23-year-old had quite an under-the-radar breakout season; possibly the most hidden one in recent memory. He’s a fabulous finisher who puts so much power in his (mostly accurate) shots and can take over games like only a few strikers around can. Think of Teplice at home (R23) or Hradec away (R29) where he was involved in 5+ goalscoring opportunities. The fact Sigma didn’t end up scoring in either of those games only highlights how much heavy lifting Chytil has done on his own. It was much the same at Pardubice (0:0 vs Zlín in R12).
Luckily we’ll always have the come-of-age Sparta performance (the famous 2:0 win), where he effectively sacrificed himself for the team; a common spring picture. Chytil could perhaps cover a bit less ground (be more economical with his movement) and the many fouls he draws also exhaust him, I’m sure, but that only makes him a fuller package of a centre forward.
Looking at Růsek, the “absent” tag for his goal involvement stands out, doesn’t it? It’s a bit harsh on a player (in)directly involved in 11 strikes, yet it’s simply a by-product of Olomouc doing most of their scoring early on when he was always on the pitch but still getting used to the new surroundings.
Růsek is a bit of an anti-dose to Chytil in that he actually recovers more balls via duel engagement despite clearly not running as much as Chytil. He’s also a fine complement to his frequent partner with his far superior creative senses.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @krokrocancan, @VaclavOutrata and @gregor_vaclav for guiding me through the motions of Olomouc’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Sigma are losing three members of their most used XI, but two of them badly wanted to move on in their careers (González, Daněk) and one of them was, well, forced to move on in his actual life (Hubník). Besides, with the former two combining for a mere 657 minutes since the start of March (7,3 full starts), Olomouc are very much used to breathing offensively without them.
So far so good.
Losing Václav Jemelka to Plzeň/Sheriff Tiraspol, and thus losing 2/3s of the go-to backline for much of April and May, would be a bit of a different story. Jemelka alone was the 3rd busiest Sigma footballer and would be a difference between Olomouc retaining 8th most minutes (76,8%) or 11th (69,8%).
Biggest upgrade
Sigma have clearly targeted a type for their attacking midfield this summer, and I salute them for it. In Jan Vodháněl, they’ve snapped up one of the premier long-distance ball carriers of 2019/20 (who hasn’t played much in the following two seasons, so it’s a bit of a risk), and in Filip Zorvan, they’ve found a premier short-distance one — tight space navigator — of 2020-22.
Zorvan’s relegation track record is well-documented (almost too well) and often used as a stick to beat him, but he’ll see this as a long overdue chance to prove himself — to prove that he can be the guy on an ambitious side, too.
He’s often been fielded out wide at Karviná and Příbram, but more in the false/inverted winger mould that the former Sigma mastermind Karel Brückner envisaged for his golden national team. Now, I’m not saying Zorvan is the second coming of Rosický or Nedvěd, but it’s truly hard to tame him.
To ultimately fall in the “unstoppable” tier for ability to gain danger zone along with Ewerton, Petržela, Pilař and Malínský as a Karviná player is a huge testament to his forward-thinking nature. Zorvan is a high-risk, high-reward player, always looking for an opening and contributing off the ball, as well.
Biggest downgrade
With Lukáš Vraštil hyped to be a future assertive voice in the room, a future leader, the downgrade may not have as far-reaching an effect as is often made out, but Roman Hubník’s absence will still be felt. There are enough veterans on this team, but Hubník was one of a kind with his extensive Bundesliga CV.
What’s funny is that if the choice was between keeping either Hubník or Michal Vepřek (it likely wasn’t — both were just treated equally and shouldn’t have been), the club has made the right call per most underlying numbers.
The “dependability” bit strikes hard — especially in view of Minář’s comments about an internal analysis showing he was the most culpable CB along with Florent Poulolo. I don’t have a hard time believing Minář on this particular point; only Lukáš Havel’s possession/duel losses have led to a shot at a higher rate than those of Hubník who’s also lost a lot of his former charm on the ball.
So why downgrade? Intangibles, I suppose. My model isn’t all-encompassing.
New kid on the block
Sigma Olomouc “B” getting promoted back to the 2nd tier is a huge news. It’s bound to have its drawbacks — for instance, as @VaclavOutrata points out, Sigma keeping a couple of A/B tweeners on board so they have enough material for both senior teams instead of loaning them out to fellow top flight clubs, like in the case of Jakub Matoušek and Pardubice — but they are minor.
The hope is to replicate what Sigma had going for them in 2015/16, when the likes of Lukáš Kalvach and Václav Jemelka had the benefit of taking first real senior steps for a second-tier B-team, thus proving ready to take both divisions by storm in 2016-18, with “their A-team” then losing just 8 games in 2 years!
The eyes are now on Jáchym Šíp (b. 2003) and Štěpán Langer (b. 2000), each landing a hand to 17 and 18 goals scored in MSFL respectively, to benefit much the same way. They are both driven individuals, full of energy and cheek — perfect highlight-reel types to once feature heavily on a brand-new LED screen at Andrův stadion. Šíp goes straight to the goal and can deliver a cross, too; Langer is known for his much-needed penalty taking expertise.
Who’s probably ready to play a bigger role on A-team than the reserves: Tomáš Zlatohlávek (b. 2000). It took a bit more time than expected for the former U-19 regular and UEFA Youth League stand out to arrive, but he has arrived alright! Now 22, Zlatohlávek has freshly helped to power Vlašim all the way to a promotion play-off, so it’d make little sense to once again bury him in the second tier full-time. He’s got good instincts — usually scoring from around the six-yard box — and picks the right places to aid attacking transitions, both as a facilitator (flashing decent vision) and main outlet.
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. This particular depth chart is up to date as of July 24 and subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 24. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale (creating five tiers), which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Sigma are reasonably well-set just about everywhere. I’m lacking some budding young CB academy graduate and I could imagine a more experienced cover for Juraj Chvátal, but that’s splitting hair. The most pressing needs have been addressed, like adding a constructive midfielder in Denis Ventúra (hopefully — no one can be quite sure because he’s missed a chunk of the pre-season) and bringing a permanent back-up goalkeeper on board in case of a possible Matúš Macík departure. (Though early Tomáš Digaňa reviews are far from positive, with some erratic behaviour reported.)
Macík leaving for Slovan Bratislava right now would therefore leave a big hole behind, arguably, especially as he’s a tremendous long-distance passer — directing plenty of his kicks to the edge of the box, setting up 3 chances and 2 actual goals in process, by far the biggest offensive output for a custodian!
What remains to be addressed, then, is probably the apparent surplus of defensive midfielders who can’t really distribute the ball. All of the three behind Ventúra have their distinct strengths, but they won’t ever bring the lacking Kalvach-esque impact, leading to Sigma making the lowest share of progressive and long passes in 2021/22 which took a toll their attacking versatility and resulting predictability. Jiří Spáčil is a homegrown player offering fine box-to-box presence (but doesn’t quite have the calm mode), Jan Sedlák wins balls everywhere on the pitch (but also loses a ton of them) and Lukáš Greššák is more of a centre back in a holding midfielder role, really.
Ideally, I’d cut one of the three and bring on a true Ventúra back-up. Dunno.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Martin Košťál is another new Slovak face and a probable Tomáš Zahradníček replacement. He’s got intriguing skillset — looking capable of both beating his man 1v1 and timing his runs in behind the line — but it might take some serious getting used to the physical nature of FORTUNA:LIGA. Košťál has been pushed around a bit too often at times.
- Speaking of a Lukáš Kalvach heir, may I suggest (for a potential 4-2-3-1)…
- The centre forward deck would look much better with David Vaněček not coloured red, but here we are, his lingering issue robbing him of all of pre-season and not going away ever since September 2021. I didn’t realize he only got to complete 231 minutes of action; such was his impact then.
- As I’ve already reported mid-season, Olomouc had controlled the lowest share of xG flow on the left-hand side channel mostly patrolled by Ondřej Zmrzlý. That’s rather shocking and it remained to be true till the end. Individually, though, it was a fine year for Zmrzlý which makes me wonder how much of that is on him and how much it is on wingers/Jemelka. Especially the reported Plzeň/Slavia target appears to be vastly overrated.
Roster battle to follow
Should Václav Jílek go with the more traditional 4-2-3-1, he’s running into a bit of a dilemma on both wings. Does he play Chytil and Zorvan out wide, with their roaming towards the centre of the pitch creating space for fullbacks’ overlaps, or does he go with some of his more winger-y types like Košťál, Jan Navrátil and Pavel Zifčák? Especially in case of the latter, this season strikes me as a bit of a make-or-break one for him individually. He’s already 23 and still only just filling in wherever he’s needed on an ad hoc basis — right wing, left wing, centre forward. It’s about time for him to carve out a genuine role on this team before he’s definitely pronounced to be a bust.
The lack of prime offensive output from both is honestly staggering. They sit side-by-side as two of the most inept wingers in this key area of the game. Zifčák at least gets into decent shooting opportunities, but he’s let down by his blatant ignorance of teammates (4th worst in primary chance-creating actions, 3rd worst in expected assists). Navrátil is more of a creative force, but “force” is a wild overstatement here; the bar to clear was super-low. On top of all that, neither of the two created a single chance for himself, contrasting greatly with Daněk but also Martin Hála, two major departures.
Season forecast
Rounding out our Top 6 is a team that hasn’t landed there since 2018. That would, of course, be the winningest Olomouc season in over a decade that single-handedly made Václav Jílek. It hasn’t really panned out for the once-coveted coach since, but I still believe he’s got what it takes, and I rate Sigma’s summer window pretty highly despite the losses of González and Daněk.
At the same time, it’s not like our model is going overboard. There’s still a 40% chance Sigma are stuck in the dead end (ie. middle group) and a 10% chance of them topping out at 30 points (which roughly means the relegation group).
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/1. Jílek wasn’t a Manager of the Month in September
The prediction: No other league side will get more goals from defenders
The rationale: It got better last season, with nine goals (of 39) constituting a welcome departure from a combined total of 10 strikes out of 76 notched across the entire Radoslav Látal tenure. But it wasn’t nearly enough for the pole position, lagging five goals behind the set piece juggernaut of Plzeň.
The sole fact Viktoria are still going strong — see their home demolition of HJK for latest evidence — is making this prediction a particularly bold one, but swapping Hubník (goalless since 2015) for Vraštil (averaging roughly 1,5 goals per full season, waiting to blossom) makes me somewhat confident.
Sigma’s set piece routines had gotten worse as the season progressed, landing in a disappointing 11th league-wide per xGF generated from corners / indirect free kicks, but I have a decent amount of trust this crop. Zmrzlý can bang in a few from open play and may take a penalty, Poulolo can hit it too, and Beneš is going to rediscover his ~3-goal standard from Jablonec days.
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