2022/23 team preview: SK Slavia Praha
Invincibles turned runners-up. Slavia Praha have followed the example of Arsenal of years 2003-05 to a T. They too remained unbeaten for the entirety of one season to comfortably top the league table only to suffer exactly five losses in the following year and finish a disappointing second. How will Slavia respond to their suddenly uncovered vulnerability is one of the main talking points ahead of 2022/23.
It was a brutal spring. Between the chairman’s cancer diagnosis and yet another exhausting continental run culminating in an anti-climatic quarter-final exit tarnished by costly mistakes, there was simply too much to process. Even for the enigmatic manager Jindřich Trpišovský and his staff, apparently, who kept making dubious decisions for what felt like the first (sustained) time in charge — unwilling to settle on a starting goalkeeper and centre back duo.
While last year’s Slavia were playing catch-up from the very beginning, having endured the “worst training camp I’ve ever experienced” per Trpišovský himself, this summer was covid-free and considerably longer both in terms of vacation and preparation time (for most squad members anyway), and so it should, in theory, serve Slavia well enough to set them up for a title rebound.
That showed on how the club approached the traditional curtain-raising press conference, too — it was always going to be special given the 130th anniversary commemoration and unveiling of the new simplified logo (exactly a year on from Sparta going in the exact same direction), this stunning mural painting or one of the more fashionable retro kits in recent memory, but listening to all the talk, there was a palpable sense of “I can’t freaking wait for making amends” energy and some well-recharged batteries.
How will it all play out in reality?
Disclaimer: Slavia took so long to unveil the new logo that Adam meanwhile departed for a much-deserved vacation, so pizza charts and comparison tables still feature the old one. I hope you can understand and spare us the criticism on this.
Looking back on 2021/22
What went (particularly) right
As is the case with most sudden late collapses, they don’t tend to take a huge toll on your season-long exploits — which still have Slavia casting a long shadow on everyone else. No side beats the runners-up in terms of non-penalty xG for and against, positional attacking and defending, deep passes/crossed completed home and away as well as at the front and at the back, pressing as well as stationary efficiency measured by both PPDA and high turnovers forced, or xGF generated from attacking non-penalty set pieces. Their goalkeepers have combined for most prevented goals, which shows on by far the longest stretch without conceding, and their finishers have registered most xGF² per shot, suggesting some effective shot placement.
It almost sounds like Slavia have done nothing wrong, eh?
What went (especially) wrong
Well… Slavia also wrapped up the season with rolling five-game xGF and xGA ranked 10th and 11th league-wide. Now, that’s not entirely fair, of course, since their five-game sample covers the very best teams in the country, but you’d still expect reigning champions to do much better (Sparta, for instance, landed 3rd and 4th despite not enjoying their title group either). It showed on points gained, too; only Baník (twice) and Jablonec (2019/20) have done worse than Slavia’s one win as part of the championship group. That’s not a company you’d typically want to keep as Slavia, especially since Sparta and Plzeň have never dropped below two victories in 3-year history of the format.
Most valuable player
who I consider to be the greatest 2021/22 contributor of all players still on board
Slavia had four players who graded out as the very best on their position, and they all more or less passed the eye test, but two of them are gone (Jan Kuchta, Alexander Bah) so they are off limits for this exercise, and one of them — albeit great at what he does — wasn’t as vital a contributor as the other. Tomáš Holeš has simply got to be preferred to Aleš Mandous here.
Holeš is widely appreciated, but I still don’t think he’s fully appreciated for some of the things he does — his passing is actually fine, it’s just missing the long-range play-shifting element (which was painfully visible once Stanciu departed), and he doesn’t get the right amount of credit for his heading ability, winning a league-leading 65,2% aerial duels (43/66) among CDMs.
Now, it’s worth noting Holeš’s sample is just about split in half between CDM and CB (15 vs 11 starts), giving us a pair of dangerously small portions to work with, but there are metrics he’s above average or elite in both roles — most notably success rate in defensive duels — so I’m not too concerned.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
It’d be tempting to issue a “told ya” message regarding Maksym Talovierov, but it’s both too soon and too inappropriate to judge his performances given that nearly his whole Slavia stint has occurred with Ukraine embroiled in a war with Russia and in a CDM role he’d barely had any previous experience with. (Plus he’s gone on loan now, so he’s off the table anyway.)
In much the same way, in fact, it’s unfair to call out his compatriot Taras Kacharaba, too, but since Slavia have been rumoured to trying to offload him given his state of mind — something that was likely put on hold by David Hovorka’s injury — the chip on his shoulder is simply too large to ignore.
To be clear, it’s not like Kacharaba has just endured a completely awful couple of months. He was fine in the fall, and even across the whole season, he once again posted sterling PAI numbers and made for one of the more dynamic centre halves with and without the ball. That said, he wasn’t as dependable as he should / used to be, and I’ve already talked about his non-existent threat on set pieces — something that had seemed like a safe bet he would always be.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @vojtechhulinsky, @quelhar, @Thorklaer, @CubaCubicula, @zivadira and Martin for guiding me through the motions of Slavia’s pre-season
Slavia naturally make for a team on a mission this summer and beyond, which is showing on more emphasis on match practice rather than fitness building as used to be the case under Trpišovský. There was also less experimenting across the board and more focus on making various tandems familiar with each other; like Eduardo Santos and Ousou at CB, Moses Usor and David Douděra on the right-hand side, Oscar Dorley and Ewerton on the left…
Trpišovský had done plenty of tinkering in the spring and it appears as though he’s learnt a valuable lesson; one attribute that’s always separated him from the rest. Ivan Schranz, Mick van Buren at RB were the only unusual sight.
Most of my consultants have duly noted there’s been a significant shift in approach — following the departures of Josef Hušbauer, Nico Stanciu and further insecurity regarding Petr Ševčík’s health, the hub of creativity has gradually moved from centre to the wide areas, something that continues to be the case without Alexander Bah and his TAA-esque influence in the fold.
Squad turnover
As of now, Peter Olayinka is still on board so Bah makes for the only departed member of the most used XI. That sounds lovely, but it’s worth noting both Stanciu and Kuchta were on track to end up there at the season’s end, too, and Slavia are still getting used to life without them (or pretending one of them doesn’t even exist). So the turnover has, in effect, been way more earth-shattering than what the 77,3% of minutes retained (as of July 14) suggest.
By the way, is it a problem that Slavia are the only F:Liga side not to have a single representative in the league’s Top 50 of the busiest footballers? (Bah checks in at 65th and he’s gone; Holeš follows at 73rd.) I don’t know, but they had three players higher than 65th last year (Kolář, Kúdela and Bořil) and the only other side without an outfield player in Top 50 was pretty bad (Teplice).
Trpišovský’s lowkey task for 2022/23: establish a solid core to build around.
Biggest upgrade
We can’t be sure how much of a difference-maker he’ll prove to be on the continental scene — his sole European appearance to date was a 21-minute cameo concluded by a last-minute FCSB decider — but I couldn’t be more convinced that Ewerton will do a world of difference for Slavia domestically.
As I tweeted recently, two best things about Ewerton are that he’s a dribbler without being A) self-indulgent — his 1v1s have purpose, he barely gets entangled and tends to carry the ball vertically rather than horizontally; B) selfish — he often looks for a cutback and could actually shoot more from inside the box. On the whole, he’s just a smart winger with his head held high — a stark departure from Srdjan Plavšić whose success rate of actions performed in the box (36%) lags far behind the league’s elite which includes Ewerton (49,2%).
A third best thing I’d add if there were more characters left: C) Ewerton is a willing shooter, but not really a deluded one; he typically sets himself up well, manoeuvring patiently into a good mid-range position rather than a hopeful long-range one. No, honestly, there are too many “best things” on Ewerton.
There is some ground for concern about Ewerton’s work rate compared to Olayinka’s, but those concerns — first — are wildly overblown based on a Brazilian stereotype and — second — don’t even come close to eclipsing what Ewerton does on the ball. Olayinka, meanwhile, hasn’t done enough lately.
Biggest downgrade
Last year, I marvelled over Slavia’s right-hand side generating 0,37 xGF from positional attacks per game — a substantial 0,06 xGF more than the next best side (Plzeň). This year, we are looking at 0,38 xGF instead — an insane 0,11 xGF more than the next best side (České Budějovice). Mid-season, Slavia were responsible for 81,7% xG generated down that same channel—sporting a stunning lead of 15,5 percentage points on Slovácko. The rest of the way, Slavia would somehow find a way to improve to 83,3% while 2nd Slovácko declined ever so slightly — creating a gap of truly epic proportions (19%).
Now, is this all on Alexander Bah? Obviously not, but given that he was the only staple on that right flank, and that he landed in the 80+ percentile for 11 out of 16 metrics, I’d argue he’s contributed a fair share of the overall quality.
Normally, I’d applaud Slavia for selling a fullback for 8 million euros, but here I can’t fight the impression that this is an absolute steal on Benfica’s part. Bah was that brilliant; and his two-way influence on Slavia’s game was that huge.
I have a sneeky feeling much of this is getting truly appreciated only once Slavia roll with the Masopust-Douděra tandem, as they appear ready to do at the moment. The contrast will be stark, I suspect — especially at the back-end.
At first, I just wanted to drop the pizza chart and be done with it. As the old adage goes, after all, “a pizza chart is worth more than a million words”.
But I mean… could you possibly withhold this?
New kid on the block
Six respondents, one answer: Moses Usor. I know hearing about him is getting tedious, but the steep ascension of the 20-year-old Nigerian is pocketing even that of Abdallah Sima. Usor arrived in Prague at the beginning of April, immediately went on a point-per-game rampage in the 3rd tier (6+3 in 9 games) to almost single-handedly push Slavia “B” to promotion, then joined up with the A-team without taking any vacation, and there he was, just casually scoring worldies against both Rapid București and Puskás Akadémia.
We can’t be sure if he’s for real yet, obviously, but the skillset is about as complete as they come (over from Nigeria): he can combine, he can apply pressure, he turns on a dime, he does track back and his noted specialty is a left-footed strike coming off right wing, tucked neatly in behind the far post.
As one of my consultants proclaimed: “Moses Usor. Remember that name!”
Looking ahead to 2022/23
Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. All depth charts are up to date as of July 14 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since July 14. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale, creating five tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Slavia need an experienced left-sided centre back and they need him fast.
Hovorka is missing the entire fall, Kacharaba isn’t quite in the right head space and, aside from not being left-sided, Eduardo Santos doesn’t provide steady presence and could be needed at right back (or right CB) down the road. Thus far, Slavia fans are enamoured of the elegant Brazilian, but pairing him up with Aiham Ousou is a dangerous game to play in my eyes. They are both decent CBs in their own right, but they have one common drawback:
There’s every chance at least one of them starts panicking when the stakes are high; there’s every chance at least one of them switches off at the worst moment. See Ousou’s performances in two Prague “S” derbies or in Europe — and then multiply the danger of a costly performance to get Eduardo Santos.
Close to his own penalty area, Eduardo Santos fouls a lot, his depth perception leaves a bit to be desired, as well, and too many of his duel/possession losses lead (in)directly to opponents’ shots. You know who was the top CB in the last respect? Ondřej Kúdela. Yup. Slavia badly need to bring a Kúdela on board.
Slavia don’t appear to recognize this need. Václav Jemelka isn’t the type (his dependability and damage control also qualifies as “minimal”) and Igoh Ogbu (b. 2000) or Isak Hien (b. 1999) have only just started to pick up top flight experience in 2021-22 — almost never on the left — so they are not a fit either.
I fully understand Slavia’s desire to mostly add players with a significant re-sell potential, but this is not the context to strictly be applying this rule within. Václav Jurečka or Schranz came over in the middle of their peak, so why couldn’t a centre back at such a stage of his career follow in their footsteps?
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Lukáš Masopust could very well be painted red above, since he hasn’t recovered from his spring injury and certainly won’t be ready to open the season. A starting right back is, therefore, another need — just one that was actually addressed, only insufficiently so in the eyes of most fans.
- Both wings could yet thin out with Olayinka (Turkey), Plavšić (Spain) and Ondřej Lingr (?) drawing interest from abroad. The first two names wouldn’t be leaving Slavia fans with especially heavy hearts, but Lingr’s talismanic, opportunistic appearances could be sorely missed.
- Jurečka seems to have fit in seamlessly and looks to be the favourite to lead the line, but my bet is that he’ll eventually settle into the role of a super-sub. He was lowkey one in 2021/22 already, as Slovácko scored nine goals in 215 minutes with a subbed-in Jurečka (a goal every 24 mins!), with the dynamic, versatile forward himself responsible for five of them.
- Speaking of strikers, Vojta notes the peculiar lack of playing time for Daniel Fila — 19 mins against Olympiacos and then a big fat 0 in the other two friendlies with no explanation provided. This makes me nervous as a renowned Fila stan; if there’s been one consistent shortcoming of Trpišovský et co., it’s the development of / working with tall, gangly strikers like Fila himself. He hasn’t disappointed in patches and owns an intriguing set of attributes at 19, but who knows if he’s actually second in the CF pecking order (likely nah).
- Christ Tiéhi is something of a luxury signing and it remains to be seen whether he’s capable of acting as a single pivot — a role Slavia usually utilize and also a role Tiéhi bombed in defensively at Opava. The good thing is that Tiéhi looks to be a late bloomer candidate; he took a positive step forward in terms of improving passing range and concentration on the ball at 23, and you can easily see Trpišovský taking him a notch or two further. For now, his passing radar looks below average but I’m willing to chalk that up almost entirely to Liberec lacking the necessary movement upfront. Per my eye test, Tiéhi picks the right spots at the right time.
- I’ll save my obligatory ode to Matěj Valenta for the Dynamo preview…
Roster battle to follow
Oscar Dorley versus David Jurásek is about as enticing a roster battle as it gets. They are both without a glaring hole in their game — grading out as at least above average in all four areas I identified — and they are both only just entering their peak and in all likelihood pushing for a shiny, expensive transfer. Jurásek has got more time, but he might already have the edge:
As I wrote in my end-of-the-season-awards article, “(Jurásek) is a bit of a marvel in that he lands in the 90+ percentile for all regular fullbacks in the following, hardly correlating categories: possession-adjusted interceptions, accelerations with the ball, offensive duels won in final third and successful penalty area entries from open play. A deadly combination. No fullback has cracked the opposing box as often as him (2,36 times per game)!”
But let’s not overlook Oscar either. He’s a bit of a trickster with a penchant for annoying his coaches, but when he’s on, he’s on, and given that he’s more suited for neat little one-twos than a more powerful Jurásek, Oscar could acutally be a better fit alongside Ewerton. That said, the Brazilian and Jurásek have already got some chemistry going and the former MB fullback offers more attacking punch, overwhelming Oscar (0,11) with 0,25 xG+xA per 90.
Moving onto a more lopsided roster battle that may not be a battle in the end, let’s talk about the goal once more. Last year, I correctly predicted Aleš Mandous would rival Ondřej Kolář to a larger extent than most were ready to admit following his summer move, and so this year, Mandous is poised to open the season as a clear-cut number 1. Will it last, though? Much depends on whether Kolář can recover at least some of his past reliability, having not had a clear conscience on 6 of his 14 conceded goals and misplacing way too many passes inside his own half (1,05 per game; the worst rate in the league).
I’m sure many fans would grapple with the “harmful” tag for Kolář’s sweeping and distribution, but it’s only really the distribution part (on medium/long distance) that’s dragging him down. I’ve had plenty of people in my mentions over the course of the season arguing Kolář is a better passer than Mandous, but I just don’t see it — and underlying numbers haven’t seen it for years.
So either all statistical models I know of are flawed, or he’s enjoying some sterling reputation way past its expiry date. I’ll let you decide which one it is…
Season forecast
Slavia are good for a 65% chance of clearing the 70-point mark according to our model, something they’ve done ever since finishing as runners-up in 2017/18. Here’s some much-needed perspective for you, though: this year’s return of 73 points after 30 rounds would’ve fetched Slavia another title in each of the seven previous seasons going all the way back to Sparta’s 79-point 2013/14 campaign. The projected 71,5 points would’ve done the same in six.
By the way, in case you’re wondering, should Olayinka and Plavšić leave without getting adequately replaced (which does feel like a possibility), it’d knock two points off the projected total above according to our estimation.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/1. Sparta obviously never led Slavia by 9 points.
The prediction: Douděra won’t score a single goal before Jan Bořil returns
The rationale: This is a fun, dynamic one because we don’t know when Jan Bořil actually returns. He took part in both training camps and sure appeared to be running on the photos, all the while Slavia insisted he’s not ready to run properly yet. He’s probably still a couple of months away from sharp action, and that’s not counting any potential setbacks or re-aggravated issues.
Still, I feel fairly optimistic. It would be foolish to think 7 goals from 4,69 xG is some kind of a new standard for the fullback-cum-winger after he scored 6 goals from a combined 6,16 xG in the previous months and years, surely.
And if Masopust — whom he was likened to by Slavia coaching staff — could have gone goalless in 2021/22 despite boasting much greater goalscoring pedigree, then why couldn’t Douděra do the same now? It would be a much-needed memento, after all, that a few hot weeks are never to be trusted.
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