2023/24 mid-season review, chapter 3: Angling for the extra UEFA spot
The uglier brother of the season previews has arrived: my mid-season reviews never feature pizza charts and other player-related graphics, which has in the past (coupled with the 2023 presidential election buzz) earned them limited attention, and this year won’t be different in this regard. It will be different in just about every other regard, though, as I scramble for spare time as a fresh Zambian resident, thus opting for a “budget” version of my usual mid-season routine. For the first time, therefore, I group multiple teams together — and do so not based on how I rate their autumn, but how I see them positioned ambition-wise going into the spring. I hope you enjoy this 4-part series as a week-end warm-up.
8. FC Slovan Liberec
The outlook
Liberec are just three points off the 5th place and facing a clear outsider (Zlín) in the MOL Cup quarter-final, yet they are given next to no chance for a return to UEFA competitions (13%). It may seem harsh, but the model is working with a strength of remaining schedule as one crucial variable, and Slovan are on average facing the most difficult set of hurdles. They are still to travel to Plzeň, Ostrava and both Prague “S” residents. Two of their home stands are a derby with Jablonec and a visit from Olomouc who barely gave Liberec a sniff in the 0:2 autumn loss. It’s a particularly grim prospect for Luboš Kozel who’s permanently living on a borrowed life, it seems.
The big question
Who’s the answer in goal to provide a natural next step to a patched up defence?
After getting blown out of the water four times inside the first 7 rounds, Slovan had a lot of introspection to do early in the season. The quartet of heavy xG losses (including the opening back-to-back with Ostrava and Mladá Boleslav that actually fetched Liberec a rosy 4 points) would’ve been a lot for a relegation candidate, let alone a Top 6 one we are talking about. The defence, losing Dominik Plechatý in R3, was a major issue as it allowed Sigma, Sparta, Baník and Boleslav a combined total of 8,51 expected goals.
Since getting schooled by Sparta, though, Liberec have never dropped below minus-0,14 xG with their individual matchup; admirable consistency for a stretch that included Slavia, Plzeň, Slovácko and the repeated Boleslav test. Their rolling 10-game xGA would also keep dropping steadily all the way below one expected goal against — mark of a truly elite defensive team.
What suddenly became an issue instead, however, was the goalkeeping. Olivier Vliegen was swiftly dropped following the brutal Teplice-Karviná double-header in R9-10 that somehow saw him concede a combined 8 times. But his successor Hugo Jan Bačkovský hasn’t been any better, really, following up in a way that Liberec still own the worst goalkeeping in the league per the prevented goals metric (underperformance of 5,08 goals).
Now it seems like the no. 1 role is still Bačkovský’s job to lose after he was deployed in the dress rehearsal (and kept a clean sheet), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kozel returned to Vliegen somewhere down the line.
The one thing to be positive about
While the offence under Kozel is pretty much all the same all the time — lots of short passing, little penetrative action spare for Ľubomír Tupta and Ahmad Ghali — with their pressing game hugely reliant on the presence of Christian Frýdek, the defensive performance without the presence of a captain has been nothing short of spectacular; a hugely pleasant surprise.
I’d say it would be considered a success if Liberec were an above-average defensive outfit, but they’ve taken it up a notch in most important metrics. Per non-penalty xGA, they are 3rd behind only Slavia and Sparta. In terms of preventing positional attacks from getting finished, they are 1st in success rate (only 19,9% get a proper finishing touch) and 2nd in average of shots faced (5,95). No team in the league was sturdier down the middle (only allowing an average of 0,15 xGA generated through that channel), something that’s about to be put to a big test with Lukáš Červ gone. Heck, even while defending rushes they stop the highest percentage of them.
I don’t think Luboš Kozel had ever dreamt of being talked about as a top defensive coach in the league, especially not after last season when only one F:LIGA side was more inept defending centrally, but maybe that’s where we are. Or maybe it’s all on Plechatý (whom I don’t rate) being out.
The one thing to be concerned about
For too long now, Liberec have been awful when defending set pieces. After doing OK they year before, Slovan were dealt 23 set piece blows in 2022/23, the second highest number after Teplice (29). This season, they are lucky FORTUNA:LIGA website doesn’t seem to track this stat anymore, but I’ve got my own metrics sourced from Wyscout, and I can tell you they don’t flatter Liberec either: Kozel’s team lets their opponents finish off the second largest portion of corner kicks (35,4%), while all those corner shots constitute the most reliable source of all shots allowed relative to the rest of the league, with Liberec opponents relying on them in 15,9% of cases.
Per my notes, Slovan have conceded five goals stemming directly from corners, which may not seem as many, but it’s also the game state that matters — this collection includes the late Bohemians winner in R3, the Zlín unanswered equalizer in R4, or the Jablonec derby equalizer in R8.
7. FK Mladá Boleslav
The outlook
New coach, old squad. Per Transfermarkt as well as my own research, Mladá Boleslav didn’t move a single player — in or out — as of now, even if there’s still a chance they bring Jihlava’s Lukáš Fila over as soon as this winter, even though there’s literally zero need for the team and the player. Generally, this is a well-balanced A-team which has finally fully embraced the young centre back Tomáš Král whom I highlighted as a new kid on the block to watch out for. He’d started all 6 winter friendlies and may be a starter in Plzeň tomorrow, possibly pushing Ondřej Karafiát to midfield.
As for the ambition, the model has soured on Mladá Boleslav much like the neutrals (and the ownership) has soured on Kulič’s regime towards Christmas. Boleslav were mostly dropping points in tough games (apart from Karviná at home and Teplice away) and they are still projected to win a dozen of games, but that nonetheless sets them back two places in the model’s eyes due to the crowded Top 5-10. Middle group might now be the smart place to land given the reincarnated play-off route to UEFA comps.
The big question
Can David Holoubek make the Mladá Boleslav magic last and truly blast?
Mladá Boleslav were a Top 4 team in the first halves per both xGF and xGA. They decidedly were not a Top 4 team after the break especially in terms of defending, when their average xGA rose by nearly 30% to 0,8. Just remember when Kulič lost the way against the three strong opponents that very much broke his back at the tail end of 2023: Slavia, Plzeň and Slovácko were all tied with FKMB at the break. They scored 2, 2 and 1 unanswered goals after coming back out. Between 61st an 75th minute, as well as between 76th and 89th minute, Mladá Boleslav sport a bottom 2 chance differential, which really shouldn’t be an option for a Top 6 candidate.
What also should not happen to a potential UEFA football contender: achieving double digits of successful penalty area entries from open play in only 9 cases out of 19. Three against Teplice (!), 9 against Karviná or Pardubice. These things just do not tend to follow bonafide championship group aspirants. Mladá Boleslav rely on the likes of Vasil Kušej, Solomon John and Lamin Jawo to simply take the ball all the way to the box. However great they are at this particular discipline, attempting to crack the box via a run with the ball 20,8% of the time is just not a healthy amount. You’ve got to have alternatives; the best teams do. Mladá Boleslav, meanwhile, have a collection of underwhelming crossers, only 6th best deep passing with a Matějovský in the fold, and Tomáš Ladra — a fantastic double threat in this respect — playing an average of 30 mins per game. Uh.
The one thing to be positive about
Of course, what’s always good to have is Matějovský’s set piece acumen. While his in-play influence has diminished a bit, once you put him over a dead ball, he shines as brightly as ever. That’s why Mladá Boleslav finish off the joint 3rd most corner kicks in the league, only getting completely shut out on this particular set piece twice all autumn long. Only Slavia were more consistent; Sparta have actually put up a three-game toothless streak.
What has also served Boleslav well is their unfussiness in the box. Once they get there — which, it bears repeating, doesn’t happen often enough — they typically run riot, notching the 2nd highest average of xGF per touch in the box, and 2nd highest average of goals per successful box entry.
The one thing to be concerned about
I was never convinced by Kulič and what some people started claiming after the famous 9:5 and 3:1 victories through Zlín/Sparta implosion was far out of line — something that got confirmed pretty much instantly by a dry run of five losses in seven rounds which cost the rookie coach his job.
A massive part of my cautiousness was how lucky Mladá Boleslav objectively were. You just don’t get to outperform your sum xGF by 8,74 goals (like FKMB were after the Sparta hammering) without some xG God reckoning coming your way. And sure it did; over the following 7 rounds, Boleslav would rack up a solid 11,41 xGF only to have 5 actual goals to show for it. An absolute classic of a lesson in regression. You’re much welcome.
6. SK Sigma Olomouc
The outlook
They may not talk about it. They may not even think it. But I’m sure that deep down, Václav Jílek and many of his players are desperate to return to the continental stage. Well, “return”… of those who suited up for Jílek’s Sigma in 2018, only 38-year-old Michal Vepřek is still at Haná (with B-team) while Šimon Falta recently brought the total of (semi)retired pros to an astonishing eight (Nešpor, Dvořák, Buchta, Polom, Kotouč and I’m counting Zahradníček and Yunis who are without a club for 6+ months, too).
If that eagerness exists somewhere, then there’s a bit of good news: Sigma’s chances for UEFA competitions have risen by 18% since pre-season. But they were definitely higher than 33% in mid-October before Olomouc ventured on a league run of three draws against the bottom 6, capped off with a brave but ultimately failed attempt at reaching cup quarter-final.
The big question
How much can a recovered Antonín Růsek help in gaining the danger zone?
Anything that concerns interverbal disc is a serious concern with career-ending potential. There are sportsmen who never made it back from an injury similar in kind to what Antonín Růsek had suffered through. Now he’s at 90% of where he should be on his recovery track, per Jílek, but even that doesn’t mean he’ll immediately bring the sort of impact that was his standard. The standard that made him a Top 5 centre forward in passes completed deep inside the offensive third, and a Top 6 creator in terms of expected assists. The standard that made Sigma very effective in gaining the penalty area without the (typically significant) help of set pieces.
Now that Růsek was gone, Sigma were suddenly lost — dropping down more than 7 percentage points of success rate in gaining the danger zone, swaping the 3rd place at the end of 2022/23 for the 16th midway through 2023/24. It’s kind of funny, because Olomouc have all the while overperformed greatly in the finishing department, which has never been Růsek’s strength, so it’s a bit of a case of swings and roundabouts.
Let’s see which Růsek eventually returns. I couldn’t be more intrigued.
The one thing to be concerned about
Václav Jílek credits Ondřej Zmrzlý for a fine progress over the past year or so, saying he now deserved the Slavia move. Fair enough, as he certainly had been more of a defensive liability in the past. A few days later, though, Jílek went even further and called Ondřej Zmrzlý “the best player on his position in the league”, which — to be frank — is nothing but nonsense.
I understand coaches are partial to their (former) employees. But this statement is just so evidently influenced by goals and assists (with Zmrzlý equalling his career best at 8 with roughly 1000 mins to spare), it’s painful.
Sigma have only been responsible for 39,1% of xG generated down the by-line Zmrzlý routinely patrolled. That places Sigma as far down as 12th league-wide, far below Karviná, Hradec or Bohemians. Zmrzlý’s inability to actually create danger at a higher rate than the miserable 11th-best is one big reason why Sigma were actually this autumn’s greatest overperformers, sitting 5th in reality while deserving to be 0,2 points per game lower at 9th.
The one thing to be positive about
Who rather deserves Jílek’s praise, coincidentally, is the man on the other side. Juraj Chvátal has been an elite attacking-minded wing/fullback ever since returning to the Czech top flight, and he has influenced his channel’s action to a far better results than his much-hyped colleague in 2023/24, too. Sigma have owned 62,9% of all xG generated down its right-hand side, sitting 4th league-wide, not too far off Sparta’s right-hand Birmančević-Karabec-Wiesner-Preciado clique. That’s a legitimately good business card.
Then again, to not only be critical: Zmrzlý actually ranks 6th in expected assists among all outfield players (even if it’s partially down to set pieces) and didn’t enjoy the benefit of sharing the territory with Jan Vodháněl, who spent the opening 9 rounds torching the entire field of opponents; contributing to 7 goals and creating an extra 15 chances that went begging.
5. FC Baník Ostrava
The outlook
I can absolutely guarantee you everyone in Ostrava is hungry for another European adventure. They wanted it badly in the centenary season. And they’ll sure as hell want it desperately as long as there’s a 5th UEFA slot to go around, because the 4th richest club simply belongs in (or close around) Top 4 where it actually has not landed since the dusty 2009/10 season.
Now they are still not fancied by Jakub’s model to do so inside the regular season (9% means some truly horrible odds, in fact), but their UEFA competition outlook has grown rosier by 20% since the start of the season. That does feel significant and it’s on par with 5th Olomouc, while the model sees Baník’s remaining schedule as the absolute softest out there.
Cue the memorable battle!
The big question
Will the roller-coaster of Baník games ever stop — and if so, in whose favour?
Normally, a team is either good at exploiting counter-attacks for their benefit, or bad at getting exploited. Sometimes it hits the middle road. And in one of the rarer cases we are talking about a 2023/24 version of Baník Ostrava who make use of all open lanes in their games — for better or worse. Hapal’s team creates a league-high 3,06 opportunities off of swift attacks, generating an average of 0,17 xGF from those (3rd highest). At the same time, though, they too remain wide open, racking up also a league-high 4,08 xGA in total. That means that the counters are behind 17,3% of all xGA conceded by Baník over the fall, while the league average reads 8,10%. Not only that, both sides of the coin considered, games involving the Ostrava team have seen almost 14% of all xG danger stemming from counter-attacks, whereas in Karviná or Teplice matches it wasn’t even 4%.
Wild.
The one thing to be positive about
Much has been made about Ewerton continuing with Baník through the spring (and maybe beyond), but the real darling was actually stationed at the opposite wing: David Buchta has been amazing in his come-of-age season, heavily contributing to Ostrava owning the 2nd most dangerous right flank. That said, the biggest game-changer was still someone else.
In Round 7, Tomáš Rigo stepped into the starting line-up for the first time. I knew Baník were high on him, but I didn’t expect instant fireworks early on. Yet, fireworks are exactly what appeared pretty much straight away. The improvement in two-way play down the middle was stark, with Baník since barely allowing their opponents to complete passes in/to their penalty area (4,5 per game), while they were doing it for fun (11,1 per game). Ostrava suddenly went from a fairly pedestrian side to arguably the most penetrative outfit after the Prague “S”, with Rigo spraying a ridiculous number of instinctive vertical passes slicing through defences. He appears to be one of the top first-time passers in the league already, and he’s still only 1133 minutes deep into his top flight career at 21 years old. Big talent.
The one thing to be concerned about
Three goals scored in nine 1st halves in Vítkovice. That’s it. And this is with 5/6s of the current bottom 6 paying Baník Ostrava a visit during that time. It’s not for the lack of trying, mind — Hapal’s boys have underpeformed their average xGF by a considerable 0,4 goals — but this doesn’t make it much less of a problem nonetheless. The story isn’t all that different regardless of venue, possibly pointing to a motivation/selection problem. On the whole, Baník have outperformed their xG slightly (by 1,17 goals). Across 1st halves, they are at minus-4,86 (3rd worst underperformance).
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