2023/24 team preview: FK Jablonec
Back-to-back finishes outside Top 10? Yikes. That hadn’t happened to Jablonec since finishing 12th, 13th and 12th again in 1998-2001, the sole period of sustained mediocrity in the club’s 31-year top flight history. Sounds familiar? Yeah, well, they still do drink the same tap water up north, even if their supposed summer solutions vastly differ… *winks at the person in the background about to purchase their 13th Jablonec jersey online, just in case the next arrival is the one they’re most excited about*
Where Liberec decided to keep the band as much intact as feasible, Jablonec set off to conduct the most thorough overhaul in recent memory.
Extensive squad turnover isn’t a new thing for Jablonec, of course, but it used to be handled by one man (Petr Rada), whereas now the effect doubles with a new coach whose communication skills (for better) and tactical acumen (for worse) mean a particularly stark departure from his predecessor. Veterans (Tomáš Hübschman) as well as young players (Dominik Pleštil) are on record confirming poor locker room atmosphere under David Horejš; culture that’s immediately improved under Radoslav Látal. Yet, those who remember Látal’s Sigma Olomouc days — where he spent his last weeks repeatedly throwing his own players under the bus to desperately make himself look better — are perhaps not so optimistic…
As for the new arrivals, there have been so many of them not even the club itself was initially able to quite cover everyone (goalkeepers Vilém Fendrich and Vojtěch Myška as well as presumable starter Haiderson Hurtado were suspiciously missing from an advertized 14-name list of 11 names).
Don’t get me wrong, Horejš’s year-long tenure had brought the fans some of the thickest disillusion in memory — maybe warranting some distancing.
In summer 2003, there had been ambitious calls for a first top half in six years on the back of some notable Sparta reinforcements (Michal Špit, Jan Flachbart) and one local wonderkid called Luboš Hušek primed to arrive on the senior scene. What this all promise would fetch in the end, however, was coach Vlastimil Palička getting fired inside his third year on the Jablonec bench after winning a single match out of the first eleven.
Perhaps more relatably, in early 2016, Zdenko Frťala arrived to follow up on Jaroslav Šilhavý who was let go by Miroslav Pelta halfway through his supposed three-year quest towards an historic title (Jablonec were part of a runaway Top 3 in 2015, so it wasn’t too unreasonable). It all very quickly derailed, with Frťala chopping and changing frantically — both starting XI and initial formation — to earn himself a sack within the first 10 rounds.
Now it could be similar; Pelta isn’t going overboard, knowing all too well he can only attract loanees and free agents while sourcing money from God-knows-where, but the word on the streets is that Látal won’t enjoy a very long leash to begin with. Pelta was far out of his comfort zone with how much patience he’d put in Horejš — reportedly edging to fire him twice only for the dressing room to come through and save the coach’s ass — and it’s quite possible he won’t have as much time for Látal, another free signing.
At the same time, the club as a whole is living through unprecedented times both at the stadium — undergoing the long-advertized complete renovation, addressing irrigation, drainage, bedrock, everything — and outside of it — with Pelta still looking at 6 years behind the bars and this dodgy Harry Potter character avoiding trial and quitting FKJ hierarchy.
No pressure on Látal, with this much occurring outside of his control…
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
On their good days, Jablonec were all over you, applying pressure to league-high 20% of opponents’ ball receipts. They did improve on their ability to turn deficits into points, albeit not by much (two victories after falling behind are still more than zero in 2021/22). They decidedly wanted to play beautiful combination football: charting the second most smart passes per Wyscout and posting the highest percentage of chances created via two separate preceding actions, suggesting a great emphasis on team play.
Does it feel like I’m clutching at straws? That’s because I am. What can I do?
That one three-game winning streak (R8-10) was a nice response to early critics, I guess; but the ensuing run of 5 losses in the 6 remaining autumn rounds promptly pulled them right back. That one 4-game winning streak would be lovely, I suppose; only if it wasn’t followed by the damning 6-game winless one that belatedly pushed Jablonec into the relegation group.
So yeah, unlike Baník Ostrava who had the underlying numbers providing a sort of a silver lining all along, Jablonec mostly posted bottom-five results across the board, hence pretty much deserved their gradual descent.
What went (especially) wrong
It took Jablonec twenty-five rounds to finally climb into the top half, only to surrender their position right away and never recover again. That wasn’t a huge surprise as Jablonec couldn’t improve on most of the issues I had put forward as part of my mid-season review. They would continue to create precious little (3rd worst offence per non-penalty xGF), meanwhile relying on bad opposition goalkeeping; they wouldn’t receive any more red cards (stuck at 7) but they still performed a concerning 23,9% of their fouls deep down; they would open the spring via a familiar costly mistake (Pavel Šulc’s give away setting up Slavia’s second goal), with awful individual decisions tanking two extra promising efforts vs Plzeň and Liberec (R26-27); cracking the penalty area from open play remained to be a stable concern.
You get the gist.
One phenomenon some may not have necessarily noticed was Jablonec’s peculiar habit of instantly becoming overly cautious after taking the lead, as if to say “OK, we are done here, now you do to us whatever you please”.
In fact, this was a common thread of the most frustrating spring results. Against Olomouc (R29), Jablonec took a 2:0 lead within 25 minutes — only to create exactly one chance the rest of the way and throw two points away. The earlier homestand against Slovácko (R23) was of the same nature, with Jablonec showing non-existent ambition to turn the 47-minute equalizer into anything more. Then against Ostrava (R32), they whiffed on another precious home lead, accumulating a grand total of 0,13 xGF following their 35-minute penalty. Brno couldn’t take advantage of it (R33), but the 0,51 : 2,89 xG scoreline since Král’s 28-minute winner was nonetheless an embarrassing output for Horejš, contributing to his eventual dismissal.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Jan Chramosta (12th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Vladimir Jovović (W)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Pavel Šulc
Jan Chramosta turns 33 in October. Feel old yet? He arguably should, as he’s entering the phase of his career that threatens with steep decline. That said, he looked like anything but old in his age-32 campaign, turning in a stunning 12 important points (9+3 bagged in close game states), often showing up to games as seemingly the only motivated guy in the green.
Chramosta was Jablonec’s most valuable player in the truest sense of the word. With him on the pitch, Jablonec scored 39 goals and he himself lent a hand to twenty-four of them (largest portion along with Jakub Řezníček). As for expected points added via goals scored per 90 minutes, Chramosta was only beaten by Řezníček and Václav Jurečka. His total of 9,55 EPA roughly constitutes one fourth of all points earned by Jablonec across the season.
There’s a lot to like on Chramosta still, beyond his goalscoring and point exploits, as he can do it on his own as well as being incredibly selfless.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Health issues definitely made the prospect of a bounce-back spring much less viable, be it Miloš Kratochvíl or my 2021/22 MVP Tomáš Malínský, but one longterm absentee who went deep under-the-radar was David Houska.
In 2020-22, Houska posted some very concerning underlying numbers for a presumed attacking midfielder, but Horejš’s strength has always lied in recognizing his own players’ strengths and finding the right roles for them, which was also the case of David Houska and his lowkey resurgence before the mononucleosis diagnosis stepped in to limit him to just 13,81 starts.
In that small sample, the former Olomouc starlet acted as a deeper-lying playmaker and provided Jablonec with the sharpest cutting edge/vision among defensive-minded midfielders while doing OK on defence. He was a Top 3 guy in terms of accurate diagonal and through passes, carried the ball upfield at a higher rate than seemingly ever before, and participated on chance creation far more than he had while nominally stationed further.
Soon after turning 30, this could be the best role for the ageing midfielder. We’ve effectively missed out on his peak due to him appearing to be a passenger in build-up (and especially closer to the penalty area), but I can see some Jakub Hora-esque emergence as this smart orchestrator coming.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @OFanouska, @JardaBary, @MrGablonzer and @KocourMichal for guiding me through the motions of Jablonec’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Naturally, it has been rather substantial. Incorporating the very fresh information on the stints of Joshua Akpudje, Ishaku Konda and Tomáš Malínský coming to a premature end, coupled with the earlier departures of Jakub Surovčík and Michal Surzyn, Jablonec are actually cutting all of their 5 negative contributors as far as my MVP model is concerned (delivering minus points where it’s usually nigh impossible to do so).
That’s a nice point of departure.
The rest? Not so much. Pavel Šulc was about as vital as they come (2nd most used) and Václav Sejk wasn’t too far behind (6th). It’s difficult to cry over Jan Král’s loan not getting prolonged (9th), but they all together contribute — above everyone else — to Jablonec retaining the third least 2022/23 minutes (64,3%), coming dangerously close to Zlín’s 62%.
Biggest upgrade
According to the latest information, Václav Drchal is getting signed on a permanent basis, which immediately looks like a bargain, steal, coup — whatever you want to call it. However, I’ve already profiled him at length as part of my Bohemians preview, so please head there while I go elsewhere.
They are foreign imports, so it’s once again hard to be sure, but Nemanja Tekijaški, Látal’s former charge at Termalica, and Haiderson Hurtado certainly do look like plausible upgrades on whatever Horejš tried last year. Hurtado was a big (LCB) part of Skalica’s late-season surge towards comfortable survival, contributing to the fourth best xGA in the league. Tekijaški, for his part, couldn’t bring Nieciecza’s promotion bid to fruition (agonizing ET loss in the play-off), but made for a reliable workhorse.
Horejš, meanwhile, banked on 7 different centre halves (including the likes of Jan Krob or Daniel Souček who had runs as wide CBs) for little benefit.
They all had their distinct sticking points. Akpudje never figured out the ideal gap between him and the shooter, frequently falling asleep on plays. It was too easy to force a turnover from David Heidenreich, with only Lukáš Havel racking up more ball losses (of any kind) leading to shot. Král was in a similar boat while his positional play was suspect to say the least.
Finally for the regulars meeting my minutes cut-off, Jakub Martinec fouled too much and routinely couldn’t handle his ground duel assignments around the box (as opposed to aerials where he’s consistently excelled). I still rate him the highest — and my model does, too; at a modest 36,2 pct — but that’s really not saying much considering the competition, so it’s easy to imagine the two foreign arrivals leaving a much more positive impression.
Biggest downgrade
I don’t think it’s received nearly enough traction, but Pavel Šulc’s re-emergence as a top tier prospect was extremely nice to see after his previous crack at making it at his boyhood club went horribly wrong. His confidence had been undermined so badly at Plzeň that he suddenly looked unable to control the ball, execute the simple pass, finish the straightforward chance — to do anything of note — yet now it’s all back.
Šulc, who’s still only 22, showcased strong ball-carrying ability as part of my winger model (9th best), recouping his former 1v1 gloss, but he caught my eye even more as this responsibly backtracking wingback. Indeed, he scores unbelievably high (for a winger/attacking midfielder he had always been) in all four metrics covering “defensive reliability”, digging deep to backstop his teammate and prevent an unfolding chance from materializing on eleven ocassions (to go with 13 when he got bypassed).
Now, Látal most certainly won’t deploy a three-at-the-back formation and is spoilt for choice in the right wing department with the incoming Alexis Alégué and Patrik Schön poised to rival the revitalized Dominik Pleštil. Látal may not crave the presence of Šulc at any point of the season, then. But I nonetheless believe Šulc’s versatile profile would come in handy, perhaps even to offset potential limits of Adrian Slávik at RB who’s seen by our Slovak friends as a technically limited straight-line runner, possibly a right-footed Matěj Hanousek to borrow @KocourMichal’s parallel.
New kid on the block
This has been a summer of the Returning Wonderkid, as I’ve tweeted recently, and Jablonec are spearheading the new trend by bringing back Matěj Náprstek (b. 2003) and Matouš Krulich (b. 2005) to provide them with some (more) senior action as they look to soon age out of their teens.
Náprstek is surely closer, having suited up for Nürnberg’s reserves (4th tier) and posted 11 points in roughly 18 full starts for their U-19s last term, but neither him nor Krulich are expected to play much this season. The plan is to have them practice with the A-team and play with the 3rd-tier B-team.
That might be the smart choice for the club at this very moment, but combined with the controversial decision of not promoting B-team’s top scorer Ondřej Podzimek (b. 2001) to instead loan him out to nearby Varnsdorf, it makes my choice in this space unnecessarily difficult.
Therefore, I’m reaching for David Nykrín who’s both far enough removed from his few F:LIGA cameos (March 2022 most recently) and young enough (b. 2004) to be considered… kind of new…? Also, his role could be new. Nykrín was deployed as a winger by Rada back in 2021/22, whereas now you’re probably looking at one of the first left back covers due to the sheer lack of depth in the fullback department. Nykrín was one of the Top 3 performers for the reserves last year (despite only turning 19 a month ago!) where he didn’t seem to have a problem in duels. He can botch a simple pass, though, perhaps forcing it a tad with his decent vision for a teenager.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
It’s pretty easy, and it’s not new. Last year, I vouched for a “younger version of Tomáš Hübschman”, this year I’m just going with a different formulation of the same: Jablonec needs more legs in central midfield. This is rather important detail, because this wording also covers the incoming Filip Souček (loan) who’s not especially dynamic without being old (22). In fact, I’m selling him too high — dynamism, along with positional sense, is arguably his biggest shortcoming, leading to below-par scores in loose ball duels, progressive passes allowed or possession-adjusted interceptions.
Souček does bring some high-end tools to the table, but they are literally the last attributes this CDM deck needs more of. We’ve already talked about diagonal passes being Houska’s thing, and Jakub Považanec or even Tomáš Hübschman are very much in the same boat. Both 30somethings are fabulous ball progressors who need to be complemented by some agility, which neither Souček nor Hübschman guarantees. The latter legend is more intelligent than the former battering ram, but 41 soon becomes 42.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Some quickfire updates/notes: Akpudje and Malínský are off; Šimon Gabriel is back with Plzeň after an unsuccessful trial; Tomáš Smejkal has been a virtual no-show at Jablonec and is finalizing a deal with Brno. Adam Ritter, who’d arrived from Jihlava with substantial hype and bumped into Horejš, isn’t featured as a presumed B-team fixture.
- It was confirmed at yesterday’s session with fans that Pelta is still looking to add a striker, presumably to then force Látal into deploying a 2-3-5 formation seeing the top notch CF crop and thin CB/FB corps. (In all seriousness, 4-4-2 is now more likely than 4-5-1 suggested above, if only to take advantage of the potentially deadly Drchal-Chramosta duo.)
- There has also been a talk about a Sparta goalkeeper, most likely the recently extended Vojtěch Vorel, belatedly coming over to replace Jakub Surovčík. That’d be both reasonable (given Hanuš’s advanced age) and unreasonable (given that the club has already brought two new custodians on board in Vilém Fendrich and 19-year-old Vojtěch Myška). Anyway, this all depends on whether/when Matěj Kovář joins up with his old team — he’s reportedly not on his way to Manchester United’s last camp — or if Sparta manage to find an alternative soon enough. That being said, Hanuš has quietly put together one of his best seasons:
- There are a lot of mini-battles — two of them to feature later — but here I’d like to go back to the stacked right wing department. Patrik Schön is a returning homegrown player who’s just broken through in the 2nd tier, delivering an elite key pass rate (0,71 per game) among lateral forwards per Wyscout to the tune of a combined 10,77 xG+xA (12th league-wide). Alexis Alégué is another player getting ready to punch up, doing one better over Schön in key passes (0,79) and producing FNL-leading 11 assists. That was mostly from the left wing, but that path is more or less blocked here, and he should be fine on the right, too, seeing that he has frequently switched sides within one game at Vyškov. To take us home, Pleštil is hopefully over the series of respiratory illnesses, blossoming in the pre-season and likely starting the opener.
- As mentioned above, Kratochvíl made for a notable spring absence, like pretty much the only Jablonec CAM adept at attacking the box.
Roster battle to follow
It’s wide open on the left-hand side. I mean, it likely wouldn’t have been had Vladimir Jovović not missed the entire off-season due to an unspecified injury, but now it is — opening up an avenue for Vakho to prove he’s still got some difference-making qualities in him. Both rivals are entering their first year of the period where slight decline could be expected, but I personally can’t see it with Jovović (unless the issue lingers).
The Montenegrin has picked up where he left off upon returning to our fields, contributing to an open-play chance/any goal (excluding direct assists) every 33 minutes on average — the very best rate among wingers. He was virtually inseparable from the ball, grading out as one of the most efficient ball progressors out there (4th most meters gained per loss). Vakho lurked close-by in the latter respect, but he’s nowhere near as incisive when it comes to dribbling, with Jovović setting up 12 chances that way. The thing with both of them is they barely shoot from up close; Vakho typically doesn’t even get there, Jovović needs to be more selfish at times.
Who could also operate on the left wing in place of an injured Jovović: Matěj Polidar. He’s now most definitely coming over (on loan) and could rival Daniel Souček for the LB starting slot, but that’s not his only use. Horejš sometimes deployed Polidar — noted free kick specialist — in the hole below the two strikers, with the Sparta loanee appearing very much as a Robin to Jovović’s Batman, looking to get in those danger areas and shoot.
Souček too is in for a bit of a different ride after turning in his best shifts at LCB. Filling in on the right or at the base of midfield, the former Dukla loanee is your typical utility man who’s now looking to carve out his niche.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Miroslav Pelta isn’t too demanding: a Top 7-10 finish will do this year. We have some good news for him, as 10th is exactly where our model sees his club feasibly land, giving the middle group placement by far the highest likelihood. But we also have some bad news for him, as the 10% chance to return to UEFA competitions seems awfully low for a side that was one of our European staples not too long ago (4 straight appearances in 2018-21). It was only 15% last year already, but that was with one less UEFA slot, too!
Generally, it’s rare to see the point projection drop as much as it has for Jablonec over one year only. Roughly four points may not make you gasp, but in the world of mathematical models pretty much specifically designed to not overreact to negative dips in form, going from a 47% shot at the championship group to only an 18% one is absolutely massive. Imagine how much higher on FKJ the model must’ve been before Rada’s nosedive…
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/2. Jablonec didn’t pick up the least draws in the first 30
The prediction: The first 1/3 of the season will be Jablonec’s best point-wise
The rationale: If you were to split the regular season into three thirds, the away game allocation is decidedly front-loaded and goes in a neat descending order (6-5-4) due to Střelnice’s full-scale reconstruction — hopefully swapping some short-term suffering for longterm gains.
I call bullshit on this: Jablonec’s first third of the schedule will be its most prolific as far as point gain is concerned. That’d be on brand for Radoslav Látal whose 2020/21 Sigma had famously lost just one game inside the first 13 rounds (only for the season to then spiral towards very toxic break-up). The year before, it was three losses inside the first 12 rounds; also fine.
Besides, the early away schedule isn’t all that scary, since Jablonec don’t even get to travel to Prague until December. They won’t grace their new grass until Round 4, but before that they’ll head to Mladá Boleslav, Pardubice and Teplice, soon following up in Karviná, České Budějovice and Hradec Králové; easily one of the lighter away schedules to open 2023/24.
So, while I was initially planning to go in the opposite direction in this space — guessing their turbulent off-season would set the scene for their first three goals going unassisted — this feels rather fittingly counter-intuitive, thus truly capturing the spirit of our bold prediction tradition.
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