2024/25 team preview: FK Teplice
First Top 10 finish since 2019. Highest league finish since 2018. Closest to continental Europe since 2017 (one point off 4th Mladá Boleslav). Clearly, there was a time when this sort of a season was the Teplice normal. Clearly, that time wasn’t all that long ago… yet it somehow feels like it’s been decades since Teplice looked relevant in the eyes of the wide public. It might almost feel as long ago as when 20.000 people came to see ‘Kabáti’ at Stínadla, which actually gave us the lead photo over 10 years ago.
The list of people born in Teplice who gained country-wide popularity and can be reasonably considered modern-day isn’t awfully long but certainly is a fascinating one. It ranges from one of the most iconic comedians of his time (and my personal favourite), through a supermodel who’s appeared at the cover of Sports Illustrated not once but three times, all the way to sportsmen you had been quite sure they were born elsewhere up until now: Robert Lang, ice hockey legend and Nagano gold medal winner synonymous with nearby Litvínov, and (somehow) Brno wonderkid Milan Pacanda who, Transfermarkt claims, has never even developed out West.
And then, of course, the quintet — Josef Vojtek, Milan Špalek, Radek Hurčík, Ota Váňa, Tomáš Krulich — collectively known as ‘Kabáti’. At around the same time they sold out Stínadla in their hometown, where the latter won a national football title at U-15 level, they were greeted by 70-80 thousand people in Prague’s Vypich as they celebrated 30 years in business. To some outside Czechia, they are perhaps (not) known as the Czech debutant that bombed at Eurovision. To most in Czechia, they are known as the serial winners of the “Band of the Year” contest. I had initially thought of leading with FK Teplice last feeling relevant as long ago as Kabát, but then I found out they won even the latest edition in 2023. Suppose they are popular then.
This week-end, they’ll be forever etched in our collective football-crazy memories, as well, slated to introduce and perform the club’s anthem. One that is supposed to replace the old official song even its own protagonist, fellow rockstar Kamil Střihavka (born just outside Teplice), never liked. And one that was very clearly envisaged by the beloved FK Teplice boss František Hrdlička, who saved the club from sinking into oblivion in 1993.
Quite fittingly, a new anthem that adapts the old chant “Nad Bouřnákem” will be first sang on the week-end the club and its fans together commemorate the 10th anniversary of Hrdlička’s sudden death of stroke.
It will be a beautiful day. Maybe the only thing missing would be the announcement of the new investor, already expected a year ago — now supposedly imminent, only pending the audit results. Major investments in the stadium’s reconstruction and new training facilities are to follow.
There’s a bright future ahead for the feel-good story of 2023/24…
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
To open the season with a scalp of Viktoria Plzeň and then follow up by beating a Prague-based side despite suffering through their most lopsided xG battle of the season (minus-2,72 xG margin) was honestly a masterclass. An early Plzeň upset wasn’t too new (they drew with them 2:2 in 2022), but to open a season with back-to-back triumphs? That was last achieved by the memorable 2007 team that still boasted both Pavel Verbíř, before he started to get phased out, and Martin Fenin, before he later departed to Germany.
Of course, there were more result-based things to get excited about. In January, they sold their homegrown captain, at club since 2011, to Slavia. In February-March, Zdenko Frťala became the first Teplice coach since Jiří Plíšek of 2008-10 who’s managed to put together three separate five-game unbeaten runs. In May, Teplice comprehensively won the “Battle of the North” over Slovan Liberec with a UEFA competition slot vaguely at stake (winning the middle group play-off semifinal 4:0 on aggregate), ultimately going 3-1-0 on the season against their geographical rival of sorts.
What went (especially) wrong
I mean, Teplice fans won’t care, but there was a bottom five side sprinkled all over FKT campaign nonetheless. Per non-penalty xG share, they were bottom four. Their attack was, per non-penalty xG, actually the worst of all — the only one with Zlín underhitting one expected goal per game. On the left-hand side, only Pardubice had the xG flow less under their control. They needed to lead the 2nd most attacks (1,88) for every touch in the box.
But perhaps the most worrying sign of all, because of its randomness, was the collective failing of the opposing finishers. Teplice famously had about as good a defence as Slovácko or Ostrava per conceded goals, allowing a whopping 23 regular-season goals less than the season before, but there was only a relative little beneath the surface suggesting as much. In fact, Teplice opponents created chances worth of 49,4 xGA but purely through their frequent misfiring, Teplice goalkeepers were actually only asked to prevent 38,6 goals. That’s the biggest discrepancy league-wide and also the very reason why Teplice could’ve afforded to carry a below-average GK crew that actually ended up far below zero in prevented goals (-5,4).
That said, there was always an own goal waiting right around the corner…
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Daniel Trubač (49th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Ondřej Kričfaluši (93,8 pct at CB)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Michal Bílek
Two obvious candidates, Štěpán Chaloupek and Daniel Fila, are gone. Yet, arguably the most deserving candidate regardless has once again stayed put. Chaloupek was doing a lot of damage control, getting credited by yours truly for a league-record 61 backstopping actions, and Fila was doing a lot of heavy-lifting upfront while the team’s offensive strategy so often seemed to be something along the lines of “hoof it to Fila, he’ll somehow cope”.
But Daniel Trubač was the glue that held both these spectacular ends together. He was the first — and often only — one to offer service to Fila et co. He wasn’t slacking defensively either, often chasing/pressing alone.
And he finally had the #numbers; the last remaining objection to his spot among the league’s wider elite, delivering his career-best 8 points, with seven of them (4+3) considered important by CSfotbal — ie. scored in close game states. That’s as many as Chytil, Tupta, Ladra or Cadu mustered; and more than Haraslín, Vašulín, Daněk or Tanko did. He was properly clutch.
Once again, similarly to Fila, Trubač’s overall percentile on the pizza chart doesn’t pop, but being better than 61% of the 42 regular attacking midfielders is no small feat on a team with next to no appetite for build-up. While Fila had to do a lot on his own — holding onto balls with multiple markers on his back, dribbling through even more players in one go — Trubač was asked to navigate the same crowded areas, connect the dots, win battles and come up with the odd split pass. He did all of that.
We all know Trubač is an especially nimble player, with some of the quickest/softest feet out there (he wasn’t signed by Slavia out of Hradec for €300k by a complete accident), but possibly the most impressive aspect of his game is the high offensive duel success rate. It’s indeed extremely rare for an undersized midfielder (175cm) to come out on top from so many of them (32/74), while dribbling his way to 10 goals/chances created all told.
Trubač is freshly 27, peaking right now, so it’s honestly beyond me why there are no reports of tabled bids. In an ideal world where scouting actually exists, Teplice would be declining offers left, right, centre.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
The pair that was supposed to carry the torch into the sobering post-Fila period entered the summer in very peculiar yet wildly differing situations.
While Abdallah Gning briefly fought for his life with a perforated ulcer, Mohamed Yasser was scrambling to replace his lost passport and get a visa in time. In the end, both missed a huge chunk of the crucial pre-season; Gning at least returning with a bang on 10 July (goal against Warta Poznań) and starting the opener, whereas Yasser’s fitness condition did not allow him to even make the bench on the opening matchday vs Hradec Králové.
These are naturally huge complications right now, but the bottom line remains the same: these two will be massively important to Teplice should they come close to replicating their 23/24 success. Gning has struggled to stay physically or mentally fit pretty much ever since his breakout 2022 autumn, but his brilliance still shines through every now and then. On his day, Gning is a self-sufficient forward whose athleticism and guile make him downright undefendable. Much of the same goes for Yasser, who enters the back end of his three-year loan deal as one of the breakout stars of 23/24 for a change. He basically profiles as Gning’s heir apparent; rules supreme aerially, navigates duels to earn good looks and barely needs help.
There was a stretch when Yasser stood tall as the better half of the formidable CF duo with Fila. Between the end of R17 (Jablonec) and start of R27 (Hradec), Yasser enjoyed a frankly ridiculous run of 17 shots, only 3 of those heading off target, and a whole quartet of them resulting in team celebration — against Sparta, Olomouc and Liberec no less. He was the one who robbed Sparta of points in their first encounter of the campaign, too.
As mentioned above, Teplice’s attacking gameplan — if we want to call it that — places a huge burden on each of their forward’s shoulders. Gning and Yasser have shown they can both handle it; question is if consistently so…
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @JohnHenry_1984, @krystof_b and @SeveroCzech for guiding me through the motions of Teplice’ pre-season
Squad turnover
Per raw numbers, Teplice are not in a particularly bad shape, retaining the 9th highest portion of playing time dished out across 2023/24. Besides, Tomáš Grigar appears to be more of an addition by subtraction. But the two substantial losses could hardly be more pronounced in the grand scheme of things; Chaloupek was the heart of the team and 30th most used player league-wide, while Fila nearly doubled his busiest shift to date (1105 mins in 2021/22), jumping to the front of Teplice’s leaderboard and the league’s Top 100. If Frťala’s dark prediction about Knapík missing a big part of the autumn comes true, he suddenly cannot count on three members of his Top 5 from last season — huge deal even for a relatively deep outfit at those particular positions (as you could see with Tsykalo’s confident start in R1).
Biggest upgrade
Depends on the perspective, really. If you believe Tadeáš Vachoušek is now ready to bring some counter-attacking acumen to the team that produced the least xGF on counters last season, effectively replacing Fila in the pecking order, then maybe Pavel Svatek is an upgrade on… whom… Petr Hronek? Yeah, the now-5th-tier player (!) was horrific. The highly-rated teenager (19) pretty much constitutes his upgrade by default. It’s a small sample to go off, but his inaugural half-a-season in the 2nd-tier saw him produce 0,47 xG per game, shooting 2,82 times on average. He combines skill with size (190cm per Transfermarkt) and could be a nice injection.
Similarly, you could say Jaroslav Harušťák is an upgrade on… whom… Jakub Urbanec? Yeah, alright, of course he bloody is. Urbanec was a nice cinderella story for about three weeks before looking thoroughly out of his depth; Harušťák could, meanwhile, easily turn out to be the best of the Baník’s class of 2002 featuring the likes of Sebastian Boháč, Zdeněk Říha, Timofej Barkov, Michael Gergela or Dominik Holaň. He’s a former U-19 international who’s already cut it on the senior level at Latvia’s Daugavpils, and who may prove to be a valuable contributor at both LWB and LCB.
Biggest downgrade
I’ve already touched upon it along the way: Teplice are surprisingly well-positioned to absorb the Fila-shaped loss. They had been adequately stocked internally already (through Gning, Yasser, Vachoušek) and now they are bringing Svatek or Filip Horský, another young forward (capable of functioning lower down) who’s flashed his combative nature in patches, and the 57-goal sensation from Slovak’s 4th tier, Kevin Zsigmond. It was thought he’d be more of a reserves-bound project, but the 26-year-old product of DAC Dunajská Streda immediately came off the bench in R1.
Besides, it’s not like Fila didn’t have his flaws. His presence in the box was actually relatively minimal, with him often pulling the trigger too far off the goal, producing as many as 13 shots of 0,02 xG value or less. Not saying this wasn’t forced by the above-described circumstances, but still.
Štěpán Chaloupek… that’s another story for me. Laco Takács will take some time to catch up on fitness and get used to the top tier tempo, inevitably, after spending about three full years on the shelf, and he’s very much returning to his breakthrough station as Chaloupek’s replacement on paper. That’s a bit concerning, even if Nemanja Mićević can slide into the middle CB role. Preferably instead of smaller Lukáš Mareček who deputized there on Sunday and doesn’t scream “solution” to me. He was still deployed extensively in defence last season, but almost exclusively as the right centre back (roughly 91% of the time allocated to him in defence).
Either way, Chaloupek’s impact will be tremendously difficult to replicate. He was legitimately one of the best centre backs in the league, appearing as elite in pretty much all important defence-related metrics. He’s also not too shabby a contributor on the ball, playing a fair share of forward passes into the half spaces despite having less space to do so than Knapík or Mićević. Apart from acting like a real-life Superman, showing up to block 13 shots with legit goalscoring potential (second most on team was 5), he was just incredibly consistent and dependable — something you’re often born with.
Chaloupek turned in a whopping 18 shifts where he prevented more danger than caused per my notes, appearing net-negative on only 6 other ocassions, while I tagged him as “at fault” for only four goals conceded. For such a minute muncher, this is a truly unbelievable business card. Where Chaloupek’s ratio was 18:6, Mićević’s read 6:12 and Knapík’s 9:11. Where Chaloupek was implicated in 10,3% goals conceded with him around, all of his regular colleagues — Knapík with 24,1%, Kričfaluši with 26,3% and Mićević with 29,6% — went far above that threshold. They were no drags, they just weren’t Chaloupek — no real knock on their own ability, honestly.
New kid on the block
Teplice can always pull out a rabbit out of the hat; a first-year rookie who’s not too young and prompts a few questions along the lines of “where has he been all along?”. In 2020/21, it was arguably Ladislav Kodad, debuting at 22. Two years later, Jakub Hora II might be one such find, debuting at 21. Last season, it was the booming right back Josef Švanda (22), enjoying his belated breakthrough more than two years after signing with the club, or fellow 22-year-old Matěj Radosta, finally putting together a respectable body of a full-season work about five years removed from his debut.
This season could belong to an as-yet-oldest member of the same category of new finds, Jakub Emmer (b. 2001). He too debuted a longtime ago — in June 2020 — but he too could be an overdue breakout. After two insipid second-tier campaigns at Ústí nad Labem (relegated with them in 2022), could he be a case of taking a step back to follow up with two steps forward? He was the star of the show for Teplice B in the 3rd-tier last term, and very much took the first-team’s pre-season by storm, as well. There’s never too many hard-working both-sided wingers or CAMs. Local fans certainly wish him all the best, since Emmer has never known anything else other than his hometown, playing for SK Junior Teplice since he was 6.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
Emmer could be one to eventually step into Trubač’s big shoes, too, if he ever succumbs to injury — which he fortunately never does. Even while Jarošík’s Teplice battled with overcrowded treatment room week in week out, Trubač was always there to lean on, averaging a wild 2 509 league minutes (incl. relegation play-offs) per season over the last three years. That’s almost 28 full starts, an insane amount for someone who must be clocking over/close to 10 kilometers each week-end (or so it feels, I have no way how to verify this claim since the league doesn’t make such data available — either way, he runs a lot alright!). He’s ranked 74th, 24th and 33rd league-wide in usage, something that hopefully continues, but easily may not. And once again, Teplice do not have a ready-made backup.
This has been a great constant, by the way. On my 2021 depth chart, I had the rapidly declining Jakub Mareš and the seriously injured Patrik Žitný backing Trubač up. A year later, those two were gone and in stepped Adam Čičovský (130 mins) and Ladislav Kodad (804) to provide a thoroughly uninspired cover. Last summer, I literally highlighted the very same need, flocking the space behind Trubač with a flurry of random names. Of those, Jonáš Bzura (b. 2005; still stuck in the reserves) and Urbanec never showed up in the hole — or in a flat five-man midfield for that matter — while Marek Beránek mostly featured at both wingbacks or in a more defensive role. (And let’s rather not speak of the late fix, closer to breakdown, in Hronek.)
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- First off, let’s deal with the fact Jan Knapík isn’t highlighted in red above. His injury only arrived after the deadline and could take months of recovery, so Teplice need to adjust on the fly to a loss that is far more substantial than what the pizza chart below communicates. Knapík is already very experienced (over 100 starts at 24) and yet another very dependable defender who almost never fouls or losses duels/balls in vulnerable areas. Together with Chaloupek, they were close to elite in defending the box from ground entries and winning loose ball duels. Mićević, for his part, is at the exact same percentile Knapík is for the latter, but Kričfaluši isn’t — and he, or Tsykalo, will be the one to step up.
- One more fix to make to the depth chart: clearly, Harušťák is far too low based on the opener, which might have something to do with his underestimation or Albert Labík’s overestimation. The 20-year-old was nearly ever-present for Teplice in the spring and did draw some significant attention, be it through some incredibly wasted chances or volume crossing. I don’t rate him that much — he’s obviously got much to learn at his age, especially growing into less of a defensive liability — but Frťala sure as hell seemed to rate him pretty highly. What’s happened?
- The second LWB choice lower in the pecking order: Matěj Radosta. To be fair to him, he did excel as a winger — his original role — as Frťala heavily flirted with a back four in pre-season, but then the sudden switch for the opener meant Radosta was degraded to a mere sub. Eventually, I’m guessing he’ll pop up at RWB sometime soon, though he’s also got two fine rivals to fight there. It’s a bit of a shame since I found Radosta to be an intriguing, dynamic crosser early on in 23/24. Then again, even I was surprised by his sheer lack of chance creation at the season’s end, chipping in with 5 actions to go with a further 2 indirect contributions to goals. That’ll never cut it in a 20-start sample.
- Speaking of Radosta’s rivals at RWB, welcome to the most unlikely top crosser of 2023/24: Michal Bílek. There was no prior suggestion he’d even be a top-level wingback, yet here he was, cracking the penalty area at the fifth highest rate among 51 regular fullbacks — and that’s only accounting for open play, not to mention his 6 threatening set piece deliveries that helped to contribute to a very good xG+xA rate, as well. Bílek is, in my books, still the team’s best alternative for RWB, whereas at CM — where he slotted in on Sunday — he appears far less special.
- Teplice fans were mostly happy with Richard Ludha as Tomáš Grigar’s successor, something I can only really attribute to steady lowering of one’s standards and, ultimately, to one’s immense relief. In reality, these two goalkeepers look eerily similar, appearing as erratic shot stoppers on balance while Ludha at least looks more competent in damage control. One thing that stands out on the Slovak for me: the fact he only managed to push away two of the 16 high-danger shots faced in 23/24.
Roster battle to follow
One top flight career I’m extremely curious to watch develop is that of Ondřej Kričfaluši, someone whom my model obviously overrates because of the alarmingly small sample, but also someone who nonetheless does possess some endearing and potentially transcending qualities. Kričfaluši, actually owned by Teplice with Slavia retaining a buy-back clause, is fast and technically savvy for a big guy (who can hold his own in the air as a youngster), moving the needle at a fantastic rate from the back. From open play, he cracked the attacking box 22 times, landing just outside the team’s Top 5 despite only getting the equivalent of 16 full starts under his belt. In terms of build-up contribution & threat, Kričfaluši’s average pct value for all 5 metrics considered reads 96. Third Sampson Dweh is already at 85,2.
At the same time, these numbers come with a caveat. Kričfaluši spent 38% of his playing time in midfield, where many Teplice fans actually see him going forward, too. This is definitely down to his frequent tendency to switch off on defence and foul, though I’ve got to note some obvious recency bias since these voices only started to grow loud late in 23/24 when he struggled vs both Plzeň (R30) and Hradec in the play-offs, committing a goal-causing mistake in each of the legs. The fact he was only net-negative on defence in one of his preceding 9 starts (Ostrava) was swiftly forgotten.
At the same time, I do see the appeal of having Kričfaluši push up, if only for his ball-playing ability that potentially pockets the below two options:
To his credit, Lukáš Mareček has actually recovered some of his prior qualities on the ball, sending a decent amount of passes and crosses into the box (while improving defensively), but Kričfaluši is on a different planet. Nonetheless, the player he’d be pushing aside more likely is Filip Havelka who’s pretty underrated as a delivery guy (along with Mareček) but looked especially ordinary in stretching the play when compared to his 21/22 self. Then, he appeared primarily as a premier deep-lying playmaker in the making, whereas now his defensive shortcomings shone brighter.
Then again, it’s only fair to ask how much his (much decreased) rate of through balls or deep diagonals correlates with the team he’s on. After all, only his colleague Robert Jukl played less searching diagonals per game (and they are very different players) while Havelka went from one of the most adept ball progressors to one of the least consequential ones. Could this have more to do with Teplice’s appetite for long hopeful passes flying over the midfield than with Havelka himself? Almost certainly yes.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
Settle down, Teplice. You’re not proceeding to conquer Europe, alright. (Not since the league stupidly abandoned last season’s format, returning to cash prize for the middle group finalists only.) Not even another Top 10 finish, no — though it’s not far off, with Jablonec ahead by just 2,4 projected points.
Nevermind, I don’t suspect Teplice fans were ever too greedy anyway. The most important figure for them on that forecast should still be the number next to “Relegation”, and that number is extremely low for their standards. Remember, as they were entering 2022/23, they were the model’s overwhelming favourites to go down directly at 68%. Last year the probability split was still a bit scary — giving eventual relegation 30%. Now, the middle group repeat is assigned the same likelihood. This is effectively the model’s way of saying “I see you, I appreciate you, now go do it again”.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/3. Stínadla came close but didn’t get filled up enough
The prediction: Mićević will add to his international call-up collection
The rationale: We are nearing the 20th anniversary of Edin Džeko, easily the most internationally recognized foreigner to ever grace our fields, debuting at Stínadla. He left Teplice in exchange for over 110 million Czech crowns, a stunning figure back then, and he did so as a forthcoming Bosnia & Herzegovina international — starting his path to 134 caps in July 2007, mere days after the Wolfsburg deal was concluded. That makes him an agonizing miss in terms of the best international to ever don Teplice jersey.
So who was it then? Admir Ljevaković, the league’s record holder in terms of appearances made by a foreigner, was never a Bosnian international. Vukadin Vukadinović never was either, as opposed to his brother Miljan. There was a bunch of U-21 internationals who’ve never made it to the senior level, like Aidin Mahmutović, Aldin Čajić (Bosnia), Evgeni Nazarov (Russia), Davor Kukec, Andrej Kerić (Croatia), Elvis Bratanović (Slovenia) or Benjámin Balázs (Hungary). Aleksandar Šušnjar was already at Mladá Boleslav when he made the sole apperance for Australia. Nojus Audinis could make it soon as current U-19 international but is still waiting.
One of the first Africans in the Czech top flight, Jean-Baptiste Akue Bertin, debuted for Niger at 17 in 1992, just under five years before landing in Czechia; and there’s naturally no way of knowing whether he was getting call-ups in 1997-98. But even if he did, he wouldn’t be their claim to fame. Francis Litsingi, a regular for Congo in 2014 while at Stínadla, or Nivaldo, Cape Verde’s staple through most of his overlapping stint, are better calls.
But what about a European? Renars Rode did earn the last cap of his short-lived international career for Latvia while under contract at Teplice — but he has never actually played for them in the league, so he hardly counts. Meanwhile, Zurab Tsiskaridze’s pair of starts for Georgia in 2016 falls right in the middle of his few months at Teplice where he spent the entire time hoarding cards, and Siim Luts was a lock for Estonia in the fall of 2018 when he ocassionally suited up for ‘Skláři’. But the pick must be Samir Merzić who earned some Bosnia love in 2007/08 as a bonafide FKT starter.
Needless to say, I’m not satisfied. We can do better.
Specifically through Nemanja Mićević. While Yehor Tsykalo (Ukraine), Mohamed Yasser (Egypt) or Abdallah Gning (Senegal) may qualify as outside bets for a random call-up, Mićević has actually got some pedigree. He was Serbia’s U-21 international and debuted in the A-team not too long ago (January 2021) as an up-and-coming centre back at Mladost Lučani. Now he’s 25, so at a suitable age to participate in a World Cup cycle, and poised to be Teplice’s single most important defender over the campaign.
Judging by Serbia’s 2024 Euro performances, they could use a spark from the back end, and who better to provide it than this sliding tackle machine?
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